Market Breadth Weakens Sharply as Decliners Dominate

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 25, 2025 (After Market Close)

Gap Down's & Doji Candles for all three US index-ETFs.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $660 - $650
• Next Resistance at $667
• Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Gap Down - Doji Candle

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $590
• Next Resistance at $603
• Volume: Well Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Gap Down - Doji Candle

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $245
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Gap Down - Doji Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 25, 2025 (After Market Close)

After a cautious warning sign on Wednesday, Thursday’s breadth numbers confirmed the shift in tone. Decliners overwhelmed advancers, short-term momentum fell back below key thresholds, and new highs nearly vanished. The data now reflects a clear deterioration in market participation.

Thursday’s session delivered a decisive blow to market breadth.

Only 22.5% of stocks advanced, while a heavy 75.2% declined, worsening the imbalance already visible on Wednesday (35.2% advancers, 62.2% decliners). This sharp shift illustrates that selling pressure has spread more broadly across the market.

The short-term momentum metrics deteriorated notably: only 46.4% of stocks closed above their 20-day moving average, down from 57.4% the previous day. This drop below the 50% threshold is an important technical shift, signaling that short-term weakness is becoming the dominant force.

Mid- and longer-term moving averages (50-, 100-, and 200-day) remain stronger at 62–67%, but these readings are now under pressure after holding steady earlier in the week.

Breadth leadership also faded further. New highs dropped to just 1.5% of stocks, compared to 2.6% on Wednesday and 10% on Monday.

Meanwhile, new lows held steady near 1.8%, a small number in absolute terms, but the collapse in new highs underscores how thin the leadership has become.

The weekly view also flipped: only 27.8% of stocks gained on the week, against 71.1% declining. That marks a rapid reversal from the relatively balanced picture earlier in the week.

On a monthly basis, breadth still looks somewhat healthier (53.2% advancing vs. 46% declining), but even here the margin is narrowing.

Over the 3-month horizon, broader strength persists: nearly 69% of stocks are still higher, and 16.6% gained more than 25%. This longer-term resilience provides some cushion, but with short-term breadth falling so sharply, the risk is that the weakness begins to erode the medium-term outlook as well.

Context and Comparison to Wednesday

In yesterday’s analysis, the numbers were already flashing early caution: advancers had slipped below 40%, and the percentage above the 20-day average dropped close to 57%. Today’s follow-up confirmed and amplified those warnings.

What looked like the start of a pullback on Wednesday has now developed into a broader wave of selling.

Conclusion

The breadth picture has shifted decisively negative. Short-term participation has broken down, leadership has all but vanished, and weekly figures confirm that sellers have gained control.

While longer-term trends remain intact for now, the current momentum suggests growing downside risk if selling pressure persists.

Breadth Trend Rating: Negative

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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