Breadth Weakens Again as Selling Pressure Broadens

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – November 18, 2025 (After Market Close)

Negative short term trend confirmation (second day) for IWM

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (No Change)
• Next Support at $660
• Next Resistance $685
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Triple Bottom - Clear upper and lower candle wicks (nervousness)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (No Change)
• Next Support at $600
• Next Resistance $627
• Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Clear upper and lower candle wicks (nervousness)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Negative (No Change)
• Next Support at $225
• Next Resistance at $236
• Volume: Well Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Lost Support - Weak Candle Close

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – November 18, 2025 (After Market Close)

Monday’s session extended the weakness that first re-emerged on Friday. The deterioration is not dramatic, but it is consistent, and that consistency now matters more than any single day’s read.

Advancers vs. Decliners: Selling Regains Control

• Adv Day: 20.3% (down sharply from Friday’s 38.7%)

• Decl Day: 77.7% (up from 58.2%)

Friday already showed a tilt toward weakness, but today the imbalance amplified significantly. Fewer than one in four stocks advanced, marking the weakest daily adv/decl balance since Nov 13.

This confirms that Friday’s softness was not a one-off rebound failure but the start of an expanding short-term downwave.

• Adv 4% Day: 2.5% (vs. 2.6% Friday)
• Decl 4% Day: 9% (vs. 3.2% Friday)

The spike in 4% decliners shows broadening downside momentum.

Moving Averages: Short-Term Damage Accelerates, Medium-Term Weakens

• SMA(20)+: 24.2%, a decisive drop from Friday’s 33.7%

• SMA(50)+: 29.5%, also weaker

• SMA(100)+: 43.7%, drifting lower

• SMA(200)+: 53.1%, slightly softer but still above the 50% threshold

Friday hinted that the 20-day metric was beginning to fracture after losing its prior recovery. Monday confirms that deterioration: only about one in four stocks now trades above the 20-day average.

This is typically the first place weakness shows up, and today’s decline aligns with the downward turn already visible on Nov 14.

The medium-term (50- and 100-day) metrics continue their slow fade, consistent with the weakening internal trend highlighted last week.

Long-term structure (200-day) remains intact but is no longer improving, an important shift.

New Highs/New Lows: New Lows Expand Again

• NH: 1.5% (up slightly from 1.2%)

• NL: 4.7% (up from 4%)

The spread between highs and lows widened again. It is modest, but combined with the SMA deterioration, it signals a weakening tone that is becoming broad-based.

Weekly & Monthly Trends: Week Weakens Further

• Adv Week: 22.1% (down from 44.2%)

• Decl Week: 76.9% (up from 54.3%)

This is an important update: the weekly structure, which was still neutral on Friday, has now flipped decisively negative.

• Adv Month: 26.5% (down)

• Decl Month: 73.2% (up)

The monthly deterioration is persistent and now reaches levels typical of protracted corrective phases.

Three-Month View: Still Stable, But Losing Momentum

• Adv 3M: 44.5% (down from 55.4%)

• Decl 3M: 54.7% (up from 43.5%)

This is a notable shift.

The 3-month view had been one of the more resilient breadth components throughout recent instability. Monday’s sharp rotation - almost reversing Friday’s entire gain - suggests that the intermediate backdrop is beginning to roll over.

• Adv 25% 3M: 9.4% (lower)

• Decl 25% 3M: 11.8% (higher)

More stocks are now 25% off their 3-month highs than those gaining 25% over that period.

That marks a meaningful sentiment transition.

Putting It All Together: What Changed Since Friday?

Friday’s reading suggested:

• Short-term weakness re-emerging

• Medium-term wavering

• No collapse, but no traction on attempted stabilization

Monday confirms:

• Weakness is not transitory

• Downside pressure is broadening

• Short-term and weekly trends now decisively negative

• Intermediate-term (3M) finally showing strain

• Long-term trend bending but not broken

This pattern is typical of markets entering a controlled, grinding correction, not a panic-driven breakdown.

No major news catalysts influenced the session; the weakness appears to be primarily internal and sentiment-driven rather than headline-driven.

Breadth Trend Rating: Negative

Not yet *“very negative,” *but clearly worse than the neutral-negative zone seen last week. The combination of short-term breakdowns and weekly deterioration moves the market one step deeper into negative territory.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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