Market Breadth Analysis – Stabilization Holds but Momentum Remains Elusive

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – October 1, 2025 (After Market Close)

New Highs for QQQ and SPY... once again!

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $660 - $650
• Next Resistance at $667
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - New All Time High - Strong Close

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $590
• Next Resistance at $603
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - New All Time High - Strong Close

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $245
• Volume: Slightly Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Bullish Engulfing Candle - Strong Close

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – October 1, 2025 (After Market Close)

Market breadth indicators show continued stabilization with a slight improvement compared to the end of September. While participation across moving averages and advancing stocks remains solid, the lack of stronger follow-through signals points to a market that is steady but not yet showing decisive upward momentum.

Daily Breadth Metrics

Advancers vs. Decliners:

On Oct 1, advancing issues made up 56% of the market, a modest increase from 52.5% the day before. Decliners fell to 41.5%. This is the second consecutive day above the 50% threshold, reinforcing signs of stabilization.

Strong Moves (±4%):

The percentage of stocks rising more than 4% increased to 5.9%, the highest since Sep 18. Decliners greater than 4% fell back to 2.3%, a constructive sign.

Moving Averages:

Readings across all timeframes remain stable:

• SMA(20)+: 53.1% (virtually unchanged from 53.4% yesterday)

• SMA(50)+: 64.8% (flat vs. 64.4%)

• SMA(100)+: 67.4% (slightly down from 67.6%)

• SMA(200)+: 62.9% (unchanged)

These levels show broad participation is intact, but short-term momentum (SMA 20) remains below the stronger medium- and long-term measures, highlighting the lack of acceleration.

New Highs / New Lows:

New highs expanded to 9%, the strongest in a week, while new lows held steady at 1.6%. The NH/NL spread turned clearly positive again.

Broader Timeframes

• Weekly: Advancers rose to 52.7%, while decliners slipped to 46.1%, reversing the previous negative weekly tilt.

• Monthly: Longer timeframes are still stable, with 64.1% of stocks advancing over the past month against 35.2% declining.

• Quarterly: The 3-month view continues to lean positively with 64.6% advancers vs. 34.5% decliners, though unchanged from recent days.

Comparison with Previous Day (Sep 30)

• Both advancers and 4% movers strengthened compared to Tuesday.

• SMA levels remained stable, pointing to consistency rather than acceleration.

• New highs nearly doubled (9% vs. 4.9%), showing stronger leadership.

• Weekly breadth flipped back into positive territory after being slightly negative.

Conclusion

The breadth picture on Oct 1 shows continued stabilization with modest improvement, particularly in the number of new highs and the stronger showing of daily advancers.

However, the lack of decisive gains in short-term moving averages and the relatively flat longer-term measures signal that while selling pressure has abated, momentum remains insufficient to confirm a strong bullish trend.

Breadth Trend Rating: Neutral with a Positive Bias

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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