Market Breadth Holds Steady With Slight Positive Tilt

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 26, 2025 (After Market Close)

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $660 - $650
• Next Resistance at $667
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up day- Reversal Pattern

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $590
• Next Resistance at $603
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up day- Reversal Pattern

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $245
• Volume: Slightly Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Gap Closing - Reversal Pattern - Strong Close

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 26, 2025 (After Market Close)

Following Thursday’s bleak breadth profile, Friday’s session offered a strong counterpunch.

The percentage of advancing stocks jumped to 67%, sharply reversing Thursday’s 22.5%, and more closely aligning with the strength seen on September 18.

The improvement wasn’t just in headline advancers but also extended into more meaningful upside moves, 4%+ gainers rose to 4%, and decliners with 4% losses dropped to just 1.4%, both showing stabilization in short-term price action.

Short-Term Breadth: Improvement Across the Board

The percentage of stocks trading above their short-term moving averages recovered:

• SMA(20)+ moved from 46.4% → 53.2%

• SMA(50)+ up slightly from 62.5% → 65.8%

• SMA(100)+ rose from 67.2% → 68.5%

• SMA(200)+ ticked up to 63.3%

These upward moves suggest broad-based participation in Friday’s bounce — not just isolated sector strength.

New Highs vs. New Lows: Still Fragile

While Friday brought a slight increase in New Highs (NH) to 2.7%, the figure remains tepid and lower than the early September peak.

New Lows (NL) fell to 0.9%, offering some relief after edging up on Thursday.

Weekly and Monthly Breadth – Stabilizing, But Cautiously So

• Advancing Week remains soft at 37.2%, though improving from Thursday’s 27.8%

• Declining Week dropped to 61.6% (from 71.1%), suggesting the selling pressure slowed

• Advancing Month rose to 57%, the highest level since September 19

• Declining Month fell to 42.1%, continuing its reversal from Thursday’s 46%

Overall, the weekly and monthly metrics indicate a pause in the downward pressure, but they haven’t convincingly turned the tide yet.

Three-Month Breadth Metrics – Holding Ground

Longer-term breadth held steady:

• Adv 3 Month: 70.1% (slightly down but still strong)

• Decl 3 Month: 28.6%

• Adv 25% 3 Month: 17%

• Decl 25% 3 Month: 5.4%

No deterioration here, but no meaningful upward thrust either.

Conclusion:

Friday’s data show a convincing one-day rebound in breadth, reversing Thursday’s sharp decline and restoring short-term participation. However, key metrics like new highs and longer-term momentum still indicate fragility under the surface. Breadth needs sustained improvement in the early part of next week to confirm this as more than just a one-day reflex.

Breadth Trend Rating: Neutral

Despite Friday’s strength, the rebound appears reactive rather than trend-defining. Market participants should look for follow-through early next week to confirm this shift has legs.

---

Kristoff - ChartMill

Next to read: Wall Street Ends Losing Streak as EA and Intel Shine