(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)
Daily Market Trend Analysis – November 4, 2025 (After Market Close)
All US index-ETF's gapped down and closed lower
Short Term Trend
- Short-Term Trend: Positive (No Change)
- Next Support at $673
- Next Resistance $690
- Volume: At Average (50)
- Pattern: Down Day - Gap Down - Hanging Man Pattern - Closed at Support
- Short-Term Trend: Positive (No Change)
- Next Support at $612
- Next Resistance $637
- Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
- Pattern: Down Day - Gap Down - Weak Close
- Short-Term Trend: Neutral (No Change)
- Next Support at $237
- Next Resistance at $253
- Volume: Slightly Below Average (50)
- Pattern: Down Day - Gap Down - Hanging Man Pattern
Long Term Trend
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
Daily Market Breadth Analysis – November 4, 2025 (After Market Close)
On Tuesday, November 4, market breadth deteriorated sharply once again. Key metrics across advancing/declining stocks, moving averages, and longer-term trend indicators all turned more negative.
Tuesday’s market session showed a decisive tilt toward the downside. Just 25.3% of stocks advanced, while a striking 72.7% declined, one of the most lopsided daily ratios in the past 10 sessions.
The percentage of stocks gaining at least 4% dropped to 2.1%, while those declining by 4% or more surged to 11.6%. This sharp divergence confirms a continuation and worsening of Monday’s weak session, where advancers had already dropped below 40%.
SMA Participation Weakens Across the Board
Stocks trading above their key simple moving averages (SMAs) declined significantly across all timeframes:
Here's the chart showing the evolution of the percentage of stocks trading above their key moving averages - SMA(20), SMA(50), SMA(100), and SMA(200) - from September 24 to November 4, 2025.
Key Observations:
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SMA(20)+ (short-term): Highly sensitive to market fluctuations, it peaked near Oct 4 (~64%) but dropped sharply to just 30.1% by Nov 4, highlighting swift erosion in short-term momentum.
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SMA(50)+ and SMA(100)+: These mid-term indicators followed a similar declining path, with both losing over 15 percentage points since the October highs.
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SMA(200)+ (long-term): The most stable of the metrics, it shows a more gradual descent but still reflects weakening breadth, now below 56%.
New Highs vs. New Lows
The number of stocks making new highs fell sharply to just 1.1%, while new lows climbed slightly to 3.5%. This gives a New High/New Low Spread of -2.4%, continuing the reversal from last week's temporary improvement.
The deterioration here is notable, as both October 29 and 28 had a strong positive skew in new highs (9% and 10% respectively).
Momentum & Trend Metrics Point to Broad Weakness
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Advancers over the past week: Just 19%
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Decliners over the past week: A staggering 80.3%
These readings reinforce the breakdown in trend momentum that began late last week. The weekly advance/decline ratio has moved from moderately negative to overwhelmingly bearish in just a few sessions.
Monthly and Quarterly Trends Are Also Breaking Down
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Advancers over the past month: Now just 35.7%, down from 38.7% the day before
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Decliners over the past month: Up to 63.8%
3-month performance: Still positive for 60.5%, but this number has dropped steadily from 72.2% just five sessions ago.
More concerning is the drop in the Adv 25% 3-Month metric to 12.5%, suggesting fewer stocks are significantly outperforming even over the longer horizon.
Conclusion: Breadth Trend Rating – Negative
Breadth conditions have deteriorated meaningfully over the last two sessions. Monday’s weakening was confirmed and expanded on Tuesday, with almost all key metrics - from short-term price momentum to broader trend strength - showing a shift toward bearish territory.
What makes this trend more concerning is the speed and uniformity of the decline: moving average participation, new highs, short- and medium-term advances, and momentum levels all dropped in sync.
Unless a sharp reversal materializes soon, this may signal further downside ahead.
Kristoff - ChartMill
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