(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)
Daily Market Trend Analysis – August 4, 2025 (After Market Close)
Strong recovery and gap closing for the main index-ETF's
Short Term Trend
- Short-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)
- Next Support at $620 - $600
- Next Resistance at $640
- Volume: At Average (50)
- Pattern: Up Day - Gap Closing
- Short-Term Trend: Bullish (from Neutral)
- Next Support at $550 - $540
- Next Resistance at $575
- Volume: At Average (50)
- Pattern: Up Day - Gap Closing
- Short-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)
- Next Support at $220 - $215
- Next Resistance at $226
- Volume: At Average (50)
- Pattern: Up Day - Gap Closing
Long Term Trend
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
- Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
Daily Market Breadth Analysis – August 4, 2025 (After Market Close)
After a string of deteriorating breadth readings throughout the previous week, the session on Monday, August 4, 2025, delivered a sharp and broad-based rebound across nearly all metrics. The strength and participation were significantly better than what recent trends had suggested.
1. Strong Reversal in Daily Breadth Metrics
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Advancing issues surged to 80.4%, the highest single-day reading in this 10-day window, while decliners dropped to just 17.4%.
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More impressively, 5.6% of stocks were up more than 4%, a strong improvement over the meager ~2% range seen on most down days last week.
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Only 1.2% of stocks declined more than 4%, continuing a recent trend of relatively low extreme downside.
Compared to August 1, which saw just 25.9% advancing stocks and 2.3% up more than 4%, Monday’s session marks a clear reversal. The breadth rebound was even stronger than the brief recovery attempt on July 25 (56.6% advancers), and reminiscent of the strong July 23–24 bounce, albeit with slightly lower upside extremes.
2. Improvement in Trend Participation
There was a notable uptick in the percentage of stocks above key moving averages:
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SMA(20): 42.2% → up from 28.3% on Aug 1
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SMA(50): 59.2% → up from 50.5%
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SMA(100): 66.1% → up from 62%
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SMA(200): 50.9% → up from 47.8%
This confirms short- and intermediate-term trend participation is improving again, recovering from last week's dip. It mirrors the pattern from July 22–24, where breadth strengthened rapidly over a few sessions, led by growth stocks, before stalling out.
3. New Highs vs New Lows (NH-NL)
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New Highs: 2.1%, up slightly from 1.0% on August 1.
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New Lows: 1.0%, continuing the downtrend.
While not explosive, this ratio shows a healthier backdrop. New Lows are back near their lowest levels since July 22.
4. Weekly and Monthly Metrics Shift
- Advancing Week (28.6%) and Declining Week (33.1%) still reflect earlier weakness, but with Monday’s strong start, this could change quickly over the coming days.
On a monthly basis, we now see a marginal edge for bulls:
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Adv Month: 51.1%
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Decl Month: 48.2%
This is a subtle but important inflection, as August 1 still showed a bearish bias (35.7% adv vs 63.8% decl for the month at that point).
5. 3-Month Outlook – Breadth Bottoming?
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69.9% of stocks are up over the past 3 months, up from 66.4% on Aug 1.
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15.6% are up more than 25%, slightly better than the 14.7% on Aug 1.
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Decliners over 3 months remain modest (29.5%), and only 4.9% of stocks are down more than 25%, confirming longer-term damage remains contained.
These metrics suggest the broader market remains in a largely constructive longer-term trend, and that last week’s selling may have been a healthy pullback, rather than the start of a deeper correction.
Conclusion: A Clear Breadth Rebound
The data from August 4 signals a broad and healthy bounce, with improvements in nearly every short- and intermediate-term metric. The market has shifted from a neutral-to-negative breadth backdrop to a clearly positive one, although confirmation over the next few sessions will be key.
This move comes amid a relatively quiet news cycle and may reflect buy-the-dip behavior following last week’s drawdown, combined with stabilizing economic expectations and anticipation of upcoming earnings reports from key tech and industrial names.
Unless Tuesday brings a sharp reversal, this could mark the start of a new short-term breadth uptrend.
Kristoff - ChartMill
Next to read: Market Monitor News, August 5
