Breadth Slips Back Under Short-Term Thresholds

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – October 22, 2025 (After Market Close)

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (No Change)
• Next Support at $650 - $640
• Next Resistance at $673
• Volume: Slightly Above Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Hanging Man Candle

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (No Change)
• Next Support at $583
• Next Resistance at $611
• Volume: Slightly Above Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Hanging Man Candle

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: TREND CHANGE! > Neutral (Down from Positive)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $248
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Hanging Man Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – October 22, 2025 (After Market Close)

What changed today?

• Advancers vs. decliners: Advancers fell to 32.9% vs 48.5% yesterday, while decliners rose to 64.2% (from 48.3%).

• Big movers: Only 1.8% of stocks gained ≥4% while 9.0% declined ≥4% – a clear downside expansion day.

• New highs/lows: NH 1.9% → 1.9% (down from 4.3% Tue) and NL up to 1.1% (from 0.7%). The NH–NL spread narrowed sharply (+0.8% today vs +3.6% Tue).

Short-term trend breadth:

• Above 20-DMA: 47.8% (↓ from 55.6%) – back below 50%.

• Above 50-DMA: 54.1% (↓ from 57.8%) – still >50% but slipping.

Intermediate trend breadth:

• Above 100-DMA / 200-DMA: 61.5% / 61.7% (modestly softer but broadly stable).

Momentum/pressure proxies:

• Pocket Pivots: 20.2% (↓ from 23%).

• Adv Week vs Decl Week: 47% / 52.1% (flipped from 58.1% / 41% yesterday).

Longer windows still constructive:

• Adv Month/Decl Month: 48.3% / 51.1% (balanced).

• Adv 3-Month/Decl 3-Month: 61% / 38.1% (still favorable).

• Adv 25% 3-Month/Decl 25% 3-Month: 12.8% / 7.4% (leadership cohort persists, but not expanding).

How this lines up with prior takeaways

• Monday (Oct 20) delivered a breadth surge (80.7% advancers) that reset many gauges higher.

• Tuesday (Oct 21) held neutral-to-slightly-positive: 20/50DMAs above 50% and NHs improved.

Today broke that rhythm: short-term participation rolled back under 50%, NHs cooled, and the weekly balance turned negative. This suggests Monday’s thrust didn’t stick and near-term momentum is fragile despite still-solid 100/200-DMA and 3-month breadth.

Read of the tape

• Near term: Sellers had the upper hand, with downside magnitude (≥4% decliners) outweighing upside.

• Intermediate term: Cushion remains (majority above 100/200-DMA), which argues against an outright bearish trend for now.

What would improve it? Reclaiming >50% above the 20-DMA, a wider NH–NL spread, and a turn back to Adv Week > Decl Week.

What would worsen it? Another day of <40% advancers with rising NLs and further erosion in >50-DMA participation.

Breadth Trend Rating: Neutral with a negative bias

Momentum slipped, short-term participation fell back below 50%, and downside expansion picked up. Intermediate/longer-term breadth keeps the floor intact, but the near-term skew has turned cautious.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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