Market Monitor Trends (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and Breadth June 04

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – June 03, 2025 (After Market Close)

Both the qqq and the spy broke out above their main resistance levels today.

The percentage of stocks above short- and intermediate-term SMAs is rising again, suggesting more widespread technical participation.

Curious to see if the momentum continues or can even strengthen during the rest of the week.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $570
• Next Resistance at $595
• Volume: Slightly Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day, Breakout

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $490
• Next Resistance at $520
• Volume: Slightly Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day, Breakout

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $200
• Next Resistance at $205 & $210
• Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day, at Resistance

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – June 03, 2025 (After Market Close)

Market breadth on June 3, 2025 showed a solid rebound in bullish participation:

• Advancing stocks: 68.9% (strong improvement vs. 51.4% on June 2)

• Declining stocks: 28.4% (decline from 46.2%)

• Advancing 4% Movers: 6.6% (also a notable uptick)

• Declining 4% Movers: 1.3% (down from 2.1%)

• Stocks above 50-Day MA: 70.2% (a continuation of the climb)

• Stocks above 200-Day MA: 40.5% (also marginally higher)

This confirms bullish follow-through after the mixed breadth seen on June 2, where advancing stocks had just crossed the 50% mark again after a weak showing on May 30.

Continuation from Previous Analysis:

In our previous review (based on June 2 data):

We saw a recovery underway from the bearish sentiment on May 30, with both the percentage of advancing stocks and moving average breadth indicators showing upticks.

Today’s numbers confirm that momentum: the advance-decline ratio has moved significantly in favor of bulls, and key breadth levels like the SMA(20/50/100/200) percentages are either stabilizing or increasing.

Notable Observations:

• Highest Participation Since May 27: Advancing stocks and 4% movers are at their highest since the breakout day on May 27 (81% Advancers, 9.6% Adv 4% Day).

• New Highs vs. Lows: NH at 3%, NL at 0.9% — steady, bullish bias. NH levels are slightly down from June 2 (4.4%), but NLs have improved.

• SMA Trend: The percentage of stocks above short- and intermediate-term SMAs is rising again, suggesting more widespread technical participation.

Cautionary Notes:

Despite today's strength, breadth metrics are still below peak levels seen around May 19–20 (SMA(20)+ was 75.5–76.8%, SMA(200)+ was ~42.9%).

Market is not overextended yet, but we’ll need to watch if NH% rises above 5–6% in coming days to support a sustained move higher.

Visual: Advancing vs Declining Day Percentages

The chart above illustrates how bullish participation has see-sawed recently but is now heading upward again, reinforcing short-term strength.

Outlook:

• Short-Term: Bullish bias confirmed, strong participation, more stocks reclaiming key SMAs.

• Watch for: Continuation in advancing 4% movers and increasing New Highs to validate further upside.

• Risk Level: Moderate, breadth is improving but not yet in a runaway bullish phase.

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Next to read: ChartMill Market Monitor News, June 04, 2025