HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a better Return On Assets (2.86%) than 83.78% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Equity (11.11%) than 83.78% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (2.82%) than 75.68% of its industry peers.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 6.67%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HOG (7.39%) is better than 94.59% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG's Operating Margin of 6.56% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.49% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 34.71%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.26. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.26) than 62.16% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 7.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG (7.93) is better than 86.49% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.72, HOG is not doing good in the industry: 64.86% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.26 |
ROIC/WACC0.4
WACC7.1%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.56, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.36. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Quick ratio of 1.36. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 75.68% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.44%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -17.15% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.21% on average per year.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.52% yearly.
EPS Next Y-21.36%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue Next Year-9.84%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 8.72, the valuation of HOG can be described as reasonable.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.35. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.07.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.19, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.07 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.08 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.24 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.93
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.08%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.67, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 89.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, HOG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
25.39% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.39%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
23.38
+0.01 (+0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners98.14%
Inst Owner Change-3.29%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change8.58%
Market Cap2.84B
Analysts71
Price Target29.72 (27.12%)
Short Float %11.77%
Short Ratio6.46
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.08% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP25.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)6.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)50.61%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)68.18%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.08%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.15%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.64%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.36%
PT rev (1m)1.16%
PT rev (3m)-7.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.89%
EPS NY rev (3m)-19.52%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.54%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.79%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.81%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.07 | ||
| P/S | 0.59 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.08 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.58 | ||
| P/B | 0.89 | ||
| P/tB | 0.91 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.24 |
EPS(TTM)2.68
EY11.46%
EPS(NY)3.31
Fwd EY14.14%
FCF(TTM)7.58
FCFY32.43%
OCF(TTM)9.07
OCFY38.77%
SpS39.4
BVpS26.19
TBVpS25.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROCE | 3.58% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.56% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.59% | ||
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% | ||
| FCFM | 19.25% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.39
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 11.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 112% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.76% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 231.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 260.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.26 |
F-Score6
WACC7.1%
ROIC/WACC0.4
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
EPS Next Y-21.36%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
Revenue Next Year-9.84%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
EBIT growth 1Y-53.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year12.75%
EBIT Next 3Y12.86%
EBIT Next 5Y11.39%
FCF growth 1Y220.86%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y141.58%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%