HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a better Return On Assets (2.02%) than 81.08% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Equity (7.32%) than 86.49% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 1.75%, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 5.32%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (1.75%) for HOG is well below the 3 year average (6.41%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that HOG had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a Profit Margin of 5.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 89.19% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 4.14%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 83.78% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 34.04%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.22, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.22, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.16% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.35. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 8.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 8.35 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.49% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of HOG (1.47) is worse than 62.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.22 |
ROIC/WACC0.22
WACC8.05%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.37 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (1.37) is better than 64.86% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG's Quick ratio of 1.20 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 75.68% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -60.69%.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.52% on average per year.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -24.81% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.30% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.41% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-21.75%
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-10.05%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.18%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
HOG is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.51.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.85, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 8.48, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 83.78% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.98.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.48 |
4.2 Price Multiples
75.68% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 4.14 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 23.37 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.21
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.61%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.54, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 86.49% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
36.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP36.5%
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
28
+0.32 (+1.16%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.9%
Inst Owner Change-5.21%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change1.6%
Market Cap3.40B
Analysts71
Price Target29.48 (5.29%)
Short Float %9.58%
Short Ratio5.82
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP36.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.2%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.25%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.94%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)70.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)66.85%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.74%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.99%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.59%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.52%
PT rev (1m)-0.8%
PT rev (3m)0.35%
EPS NQ rev (1m)83.98%
EPS NQ rev (3m)32.1%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.48%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-8.93%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.48 | ||
| P/S | 0.76 | ||
| P/FCF | 4.14 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.42 | ||
| P/B | 1.03 | ||
| P/tB | 1.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 23.37 |
EPS(TTM)1.93
EY6.89%
EPS(NY)3.3
Fwd EY11.79%
FCF(TTM)6.76
FCFY24.15%
OCF(TTM)8.2
OCFY29.27%
SpS36.83
BVpS27.3
TBVpS26.78
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.21
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROCE | 2.24% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.14% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.16% | ||
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% | ||
| FCFM | 18.36% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 286.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 338.27% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.22 |
F-Score5
WACC8.05%
ROIC/WACC0.22
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
EPS Next Y-21.75%
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
Revenue Next Year-10.05%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.18%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.22%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year-1.58%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.05%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y54.51%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y39.3%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%