HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
25.59 USD
+0.45 (+1.79%)
25.59 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. This makes HOG very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a Return On Assets of 2.02%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Equity (7.32%) than 88.89% of its industry peers.
HOG's Return On Invested Capital of 1.75% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 77.78% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.42%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (1.75%) for HOG is well below the 3 year average (6.41%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that HOG had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.43%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 88.89% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 4.14%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HOG has a Gross Margin of 34.04%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.20. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG has a Altman-Z score of 1.20. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HOG outperforms 58.33% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.35. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 8.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (8.35) than 80.56% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.47 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio (1.47) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.2 |
ROIC/WACC0.23
WACC7.75%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.37 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (1.37) is better than 63.89% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of HOG (1.20) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -11.13%.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.13%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.30% yearly.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.41% yearly.
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 6.21.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.06), we can say HOG is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.74, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.73, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 77.78% of the companies are valued more expensively.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 22.64 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.16% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)1.38
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.86%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.34, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 86.11% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.37, HOG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
36.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP36.5%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
25.59
+0.45 (+1.79%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change0.52%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change1.79%
Market Cap3.11B
Revenue(TTM)5.19B
Net Income(TTM)242.82M
Analysts70
Price Target29.71 (16.1%)
Short Float %10.17%
Short Ratio7.69
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP36.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.2%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.25%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.94%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)70.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)66.85%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.74%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.99%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.59%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.52%
PT rev (1m)-0.38%
PT rev (3m)0.77%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.48%
EPS NQ rev (3m)21.59%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.8%
EPS NY rev (3m)59.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.59%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.27%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.66%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.74 | ||
| P/S | 0.7 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.79 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.12 | ||
| P/B | 0.94 | ||
| P/tB | 0.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 22.64 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY16.1%
EPS(NY)2.63
Fwd EY10.26%
FCF(TTM)6.76
FCFY26.41%
OCF(TTM)8.19
OCFY32.01%
SpS36.81
BVpS27.29
TBVpS26.76
PEG (NY)0.25
PEG (5Y)1.38
Graham Number50.3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROCE | 2.24% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.14% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.16% | ||
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% | ||
| FCFM | 18.36% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 286.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 338.27% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.2 |
F-Score5
WACC7.75%
ROIC/WACC0.23
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.13%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.22%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y54.51%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y39.3%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 5 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 24.8% in the next year.