HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated HOG against 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. While HOG has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. This makes HOG very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 2.86% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 83.78% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 11.11%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.78% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 2.82%, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 6.62%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HOG (7.39%) is better than 94.59% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of HOG (6.56%) is better than 86.49% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
The Gross Margin of HOG (34.71%) is better than 94.59% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.27, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.27) than 62.16% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 7.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.93 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.49% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
HOG has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.72) than 64.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
ROIC/WACC0.36
WACC7.75%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.56, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.36. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.36, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.44%.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.52% on average per year.
HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -17.15%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 7.21% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.52% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-21.75%
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue Next Year-10.03%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.18%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 9.19, the valuation of HOG can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.49% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.41. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.46.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 35.19.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.46 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.25 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.55 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.03
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.87%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.62, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 89.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, HOG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.87% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
25.39% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.39%
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
24.62
-0.49 (-1.95%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners98.14%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change8.58%
Market Cap2.99B
Analysts71
Price Target29.72 (20.71%)
Short Float %10.52%
Short Ratio6.71
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.87% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP25.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)6.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)50.61%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)68.18%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.08%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.15%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.64%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.36%
PT rev (1m)1.16%
PT rev (3m)-7.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.17%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-21%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.38%
EPS NY rev (3m)-19.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.16%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-7.02%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.42%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.46 | ||
| P/S | 0.62 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.25 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.72 | ||
| P/B | 0.94 | ||
| P/tB | 0.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.55 |
EPS(TTM)2.68
EY10.89%
EPS(NY)3.3
Fwd EY13.41%
FCF(TTM)7.58
FCFY30.8%
OCF(TTM)9.07
OCFY36.82%
SpS39.4
BVpS26.19
TBVpS25.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.03
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROCE | 3.58% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.56% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.59% | ||
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% | ||
| FCFM | 19.25% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.39
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 11.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 112% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.76% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 231.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 260.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
F-Score6
WACC7.75%
ROIC/WACC0.36
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
EPS Next Y-21.75%
EPS Next 2Y-0.44%
EPS Next 3Y5.42%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
Revenue Next Year-10.03%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.18%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.2%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
EBIT growth 1Y-53.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year12.75%
EBIT Next 3Y12.86%
EBIT Next 5Y11.39%
FCF growth 1Y220.86%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y141.58%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%