HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 38 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 2.86% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
HOG's Return On Equity of 11.11% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
HOG's Return On Invested Capital of 2.82% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 6.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 7.39%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.74% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
HOG's Operating Margin of 6.56% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.84% of its industry peers.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HOG has a better Gross Margin (34.71%) than 94.74% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.27. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG has a Altman-Z score of 1.27. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 65.79% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 7.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.93 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.84% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.72. This is in the lower half of the industry: HOG underperforms 65.79% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
ROIC/WACC0.36
WACC7.79%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Current ratio (1.56) than 68.42% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.36 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.36, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.32% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.44%.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.52% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -17.15% in the last year.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.60% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.14% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-22.82%
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
EPS Next 5Y8.6%
Revenue Next Year-9.95%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.23%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.06%
Revenue Next 5Y1.14%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 9.07, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
86.84% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.82, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.41, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 89.47% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.76, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.41 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 73.68% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.71 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.01
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.95%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.58. HOG pays more dividend than 86.84% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, HOG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 25.39% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.39%
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
24.3
-0.46 (-1.86%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners95.19%
Inst Owner Change-3.06%
Ins Owners0.98%
Ins Owner Change5.77%
Market Cap3.01B
Analysts70
Price Target29.38 (20.91%)
Short Float %11.86%
Short Ratio5.54
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP25.39%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)6.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)50.61%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)68.18%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.08%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.15%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.64%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.36%
PT rev (1m)-8.57%
PT rev (3m)-21.36%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-16.59%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-19.94%
EPS NY rev (1m)-17.59%
EPS NY rev (3m)-21.01%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-6.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.88%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-6.04%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-11.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.41 | ||
| P/S | 0.63 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.26 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.73 | ||
| P/B | 0.94 | ||
| P/tB | 0.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.71 |
EPS(TTM)2.68
EY11.03%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY13.49%
FCF(TTM)7.45
FCFY30.65%
OCF(TTM)8.9
OCFY36.64%
SpS38.69
BVpS25.72
TBVpS25.22
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.01
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROCE | 3.58% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.56% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.59% | ||
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% | ||
| FCFM | 19.25% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.39
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 11.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 112% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.76% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 231.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 260.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.27 |
F-Score6
WACC7.79%
ROIC/WACC0.36
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
EPS Next Y-22.82%
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
EPS Next 5Y8.6%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
Revenue Next Year-9.95%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.23%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.06%
Revenue Next 5Y1.14%
EBIT growth 1Y-53.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year27.86%
EBIT Next 3Y18.93%
EBIT Next 5Y13.81%
FCF growth 1Y220.86%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y141.58%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%