HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG)
US4128221086 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 41 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a better Return On Assets (5.17%) than 80.49% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 19.10%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.37% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.48%) than 73.17% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is below the industry average of 11.59%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.17% | ||
| ROE | 19.1% | ||
| ROIC | 5.48% |
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HOG (11.03%) is better than 95.12% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.64%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.68% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 36.20%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.24% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.03% | ||
| GM | 36.2% |
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y3.37%
GM growth 5Y-0.32%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
HOG has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.53. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.53, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.29% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 11.95, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 11.95 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 11.95. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 85.37% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.78 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of HOG (1.78) is worse than 78.05% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.78 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 11.95 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
ROIC/WACC0.65
WACC8.5%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.54. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Current ratio of 1.54. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HOG outperforms 56.10% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.32 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a Quick ratio of 1.32. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 65.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.71% in the last year.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.42% yearly.
HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 1.41%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.71%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS Q2Q%33.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.41%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Sales Q2Q%12.38%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.54% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.96% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-7.82%
EPS Next 2Y0.08%
EPS Next 3Y2.13%
EPS Next 5Y2.54%
Revenue Next Year-6.2%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.4%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.74%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 7.50 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
90.24% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 24.41. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.63 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 87.80% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.59, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.63 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 73.17% of the companies listed in the same industry.
95.12% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.21 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.58 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.01
EPS Next 2Y0.08%
EPS Next 3Y2.13%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.04%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.01. HOG pays more dividend than 87.80% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.30, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.56%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.56%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 15.16% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP15.16%
EPS Next 2Y0.08%
EPS Next 3Y2.13%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC
NYSE:HOG (7/26/2024, 7:04:00 PM)
After market: 36.83 0 (0%)36.83
+0.44 (+1.21%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap4.95B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.04% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
Avg EPS beat(4)
Min EPS beat(4)
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EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
Avg Revenue beat(4)
Min Revenue beat(4)
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Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
Avg Revenue beat(12)
Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.63 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.01
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.17% | ||
| ROE | 19.1% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 11.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.03% | ||
| GM | 36.2% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.78 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.71%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y-7.82%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)1.41%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y