HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, HOG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. HOG was compared to 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 2.86%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 83.78% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 11.11%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.78% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (2.82%) than 75.68% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 6.67%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of HOG (7.39%) is better than 94.59% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 6.56%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
HOG's Gross Margin of 34.71% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.59% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.26. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG's Altman-Z score of 1.26 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 62.16% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 7.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 7.93, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.72. This is in the lower half of the industry: HOG underperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.26 |
ROIC/WACC0.4
WACC7.1%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.56. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (1.56) is better than 67.57% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.36. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG's Quick ratio of 1.36 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 75.68% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased strongly by -40.44% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -17.15% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 7.21% yearly.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.52% yearly.
EPS Next Y-22.82%
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue Next Year-9.65%
Revenue Next 2Y-3%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.06%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 8.72 indicates a reasonable valuation of HOG.
86.49% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.35, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.13.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.19% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.13 |
4.2 Price Multiples
HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.08 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.24 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.93
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.90%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.56, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 89.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 25.39% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.39%
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
23.38
+0.01 (+0.04%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners98.14%
Inst Owner Change-3.29%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change8.58%
Market Cap2.84B
Analysts71
Price Target29.38 (25.66%)
Short Float %11.77%
Short Ratio6.46
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP25.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)6.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)50.61%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)68.18%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.08%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.15%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.64%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.36%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-8.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.18%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-21.01%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.18%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.79%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.34%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.61%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.72 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.13 | ||
| P/S | 0.59 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.08 | ||
| P/OCF | 2.58 | ||
| P/B | 0.89 | ||
| P/tB | 0.91 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 16.24 |
EPS(TTM)2.68
EY11.46%
EPS(NY)3.28
Fwd EY14.02%
FCF(TTM)7.58
FCFY32.43%
OCF(TTM)9.07
OCFY38.77%
SpS39.4
BVpS26.19
TBVpS25.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.86% | ||
| ROE | 11.11% | ||
| ROCE | 3.58% | ||
| ROIC | 2.82% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.56% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.59% | ||
| OM | 6.56% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.39% | ||
| GM | 34.71% | ||
| FCFM | 19.25% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.39
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.93 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 11.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 112% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.76% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 231.91% | ||
| Profit Quality | 260.58% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.56 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.26 |
F-Score6
WACC7.1%
ROIC/WACC0.4
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
EPS Next Y-22.82%
EPS Next 2Y-0.77%
EPS Next 3Y5.27%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
Revenue Next Year-9.65%
Revenue Next 2Y-3%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.06%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
EBIT growth 1Y-53.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year12.75%
EBIT Next 3Y12.86%
EBIT Next 5Y11.39%
FCF growth 1Y220.86%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y141.58%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%