HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
26.6 USD
+0.06 (+0.23%)
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. This makes HOG very considerable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 2.02% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 81.08% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 7.32%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Return On Invested Capital of 1.75% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 78.38% of its industry peers.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 5.68%.
The 3 year average ROIC (6.41%) for HOG is well above the current ROIC(1.75%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG's Profit Margin of 5.43% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 89.19% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG has a Operating Margin of 4.14%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 83.78% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 34.04%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for HOG has remained at the same level compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.21, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.21, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.16% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.35. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 8.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG (8.35) is better than 81.08% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.47, HOG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 43.24% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
ROIC/WACC0.23
WACC7.7%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.37 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
HOG's Current ratio of 1.37 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.20, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.38% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased strongly by -60.69% in the last year.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.52% on average per year.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -24.81% in the past year. This is quite bad
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
3.2 Future
HOG is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 11.30% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -0.41% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y23.81%
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.02%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.77%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.78, HOG is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.90, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HOG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.94.
83.78% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.94 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 78.38% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 3.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 22.97 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.58
PEG (5Y)3.05
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.55%.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.23. HOG pays more dividend than 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.55% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
36.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP36.5%
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
NYSE:HOG (10/7/2025, 1:52:26 PM)
26.6
+0.06 (+0.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change1.79%
Market Cap3.23B
Analysts71
Price Target29.82 (12.11%)
Short Float %8.83%
Short Ratio4.97
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.55% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP36.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.2%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.25%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.94%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)70.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)66.85%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.74%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.99%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.59%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.52%
PT rev (1m)1.15%
PT rev (3m)0.35%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)70.92%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.74%
EPS NY rev (3m)57.44%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.39%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.63%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.78 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.94 | ||
| P/S | 0.72 | ||
| P/FCF | 3.94 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.25 | ||
| P/B | 0.97 | ||
| P/tB | 0.99 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 22.97 |
EPS(TTM)1.93
EY7.26%
EPS(NY)2.68
Fwd EY10.06%
FCF(TTM)6.76
FCFY25.4%
OCF(TTM)8.19
OCFY30.8%
SpS36.81
BVpS27.29
TBVpS26.76
PEG (NY)0.58
PEG (5Y)3.05
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROCE | 2.24% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.14% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.16% | ||
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% | ||
| FCFM | 18.36% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 286.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 338.27% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.21 |
F-Score5
WACC7.7%
ROIC/WACC0.23
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
EPS Next Y23.81%
EPS Next 2Y-10.36%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
Revenue Next Year-11.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.02%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.77%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.22%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y54.51%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y39.3%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%