HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:HOG • US4128221086

Current stock price

17.845 USD
+0.21 (+1.22%)
Last:

This HOG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

9

1. HOG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
  • In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
HOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFHOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

1.2 Ratios

  • HOG has a Return On Assets of 4.21%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
  • HOG has a better Return On Equity (10.79%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 6.16%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.11%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (6.16%) for HOG is above the 3 year average (5.40%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.21%
ROE 10.79%
ROIC 6.16%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.63%
ROE(5y)19.58%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)6.43%
HOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICHOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • HOG has a better Profit Margin (7.57%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • HOG has a Operating Margin of 10.27%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
  • The Gross Margin of HOG (31.64%) is better than 91.43% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 10.27%
PM (TTM) 7.57%
GM 31.64%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y24.4%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-5.15%
GM growth 5Y-1.34%
HOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsHOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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7

2. HOG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for HOG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
HOG Yearly Shares OutstandingHOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
HOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsHOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 2.07 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.07, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 7.15, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 7.15 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 7.15. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.68 indicates that HOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.68) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF 7.15
Altman-Z 2.07
ROIC/WACC0.74
WACC8.28%
HOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFHOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.10. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of HOG (2.10) is better than 77.14% of its industry peers.
  • HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.83. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • With an excellent Quick ratio value of 1.83, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.1
Quick Ratio 1.83
HOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesHOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. HOG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -21.62%.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 215899.16% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
  • HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -13.76%.
  • HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.99% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%

3.2 Future

  • HOG is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 20.48% yearly.
  • HOG is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.96% yearly.
EPS Next Y-90.68%
EPS Next 2Y-22.62%
EPS Next 3Y-15.53%
EPS Next 5Y20.48%
Revenue Next Year-0.43%
Revenue Next 2Y1.53%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.35%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
HOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesHOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
HOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesHOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2 4 6 8 10

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6

4. HOG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 6.84, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
  • HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.71, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 73.34 indicates a quite expensive valuation of HOG.
  • HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.83), we can say HOG is valued expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 6.84
Fwd PE 73.34
HOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsHOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 4.81
EV/EBITDA 2.14
HOG Per share dataHOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -15.53% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
EPS Next 2Y-22.62%
EPS Next 3Y-15.53%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

8

5. HOG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.17%, HOG is a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.01, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 94.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.91.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.17%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of HOG grows each year by 10.40%, which is quite nice.
  • HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.4%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
HOG Yearly Dividends per shareHOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • 25.50% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
  • HOG's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP25.5%
EPS Next 2Y-22.62%
EPS Next 3Y-15.53%
HOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendHOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
HOG Dividend Payout.HOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.HOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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HOG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC

NYSE:HOG (3/16/2026, 1:04:07 PM)

17.845

+0.21 (+1.22%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-29
Inst Owners101.46%
Inst Owner Change4.87%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change2.4%
Market Cap2.00B
Revenue(TTM)4.47B
Net Income(TTM)338.74M
Analysts69.52
Price Target23.88 (33.82%)
Short Float %16.4%
Short Ratio5.03
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.17%
Yearly Dividend0.73
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.4%
DP25.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-02
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-15.74%
Min EPS beat(2)-131.73%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.27%
Min EPS beat(4)-131.73%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.33%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)34.13%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)53.37%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-22.3%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-6.34%
Min Revenue beat(4)-22.3%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.1%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-3.48%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.12%
PT rev (1m)-11.69%
PT rev (3m)-14.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-75.29%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-75.29%
EPS NY rev (1m)-88.43%
EPS NY rev (3m)-88.66%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-12.35%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-12.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.32%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.47%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 6.84
Fwd PE 73.34
P/S 0.45
P/FCF 4.81
P/OCF 3.51
P/B 0.64
P/tB 0.65
EV/EBITDA 2.14
EPS(TTM)2.61
EY14.63%
EPS(NY)0.24
Fwd EY1.36%
FCF(TTM)3.71
FCFY20.8%
OCF(TTM)5.09
OCFY28.5%
SpS39.99
BVpS28.08
TBVpS27.51
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
Graham Number40.61
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.21%
ROE 10.79%
ROCE 8.53%
ROIC 6.16%
ROICexc 12.98%
ROICexgc 13.28%
OM 10.27%
PM (TTM) 7.57%
GM 31.64%
FCFM 9.28%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.63%
ROE(5y)19.58%
ROIC(3y)5.4%
ROIC(5y)6.43%
ROICexc(3y)8.34%
ROICexc(5y)8.95%
ROICexgc(3y)8.48%
ROICexgc(5y)9.08%
ROCE(3y)7.48%
ROCE(5y)8.92%
ROICexgc growth 3Y10.21%
ROICexgc growth 5Y47.07%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.7%
ROICexc growth 5Y46.78%
OM growth 3Y-13.37%
OM growth 5Y24.4%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-5.15%
GM growth 5Y-1.34%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.56
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.68
Debt/FCF 7.15
Debt/EBITDA 3.4
Cap/Depr 89.16%
Cap/Sales 3.44%
Interest Coverage 1.39
Cash Conversion 90.08%
Profit Quality 122.59%
Current Ratio 2.1
Quick Ratio 1.83
Altman-Z 2.07
F-Score8
WACC8.28%
ROIC/WACC0.74
Cap/Depr(3y)114.22%
Cap/Depr(5y)103.06%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)130.18%
Profit Quality(5y)115.13%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
EPS Next Y-90.68%
EPS Next 2Y-22.62%
EPS Next 3Y-15.53%
EPS Next 5Y20.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%
Revenue Next Year-0.43%
Revenue Next 2Y1.53%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.35%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%
EBIT growth 1Y10.23%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.35%
EBIT growth 5Y26.87%
EBIT Next Year-72.54%
EBIT Next 3Y-14.41%
EBIT Next 5Y6.31%
FCF growth 1Y-52.12%
FCF growth 3Y1.53%
FCF growth 5Y-16.88%
OCF growth 1Y-46.52%
OCF growth 3Y1.23%
OCF growth 5Y-13.55%

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to HOG.


What is the valuation status for HOG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of HOG stock?

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.


How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?

The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.


How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?

The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 8 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 25.5%.