HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
23.4 USD
-0.33 (-1.39%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings would make HOG suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
HOG has a better Return On Assets (4.74%) than 91.67% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Return On Equity of 14.03%. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 97.22% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.78%) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.83%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 10.74%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of HOG (11.88%) is better than 97.22% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
HOG's Gross Margin of 33.26% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.44% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.95 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
HOG has a Altman-Z score of 1.95. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 80.56% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 80.56% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HOG outperforms 47.22% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.95 |
ROIC/WACC0.77
WACC7.49%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Current ratio (2.51) than 94.44% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased by -7.21% in the last year.
HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.52% yearly.
HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -15.99%.
HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.88% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -1.09% on average per year.
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 5.68 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.41. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
HOG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.91.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 83.33% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 35.40, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.68 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.91 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 91.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
HOG's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.63 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -2.16% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.26
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.95%.
The stock price of HOG dropped by -21.42% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.30, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 86.11% of the companies listed in the same industry.
HOG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
NYSE:HOG (12/5/2025, 2:09:54 PM)
23.4
-0.33 (-1.39%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.32%
Inst Owner Change-3.42%
Ins Owners0.25%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.76B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts70
Price Target29.37 (25.51%)
Short Float %14.37%
Short Ratio9.2
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-1.52%
PT rev (3m)-0.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-305.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-271.6%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.33%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.54%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-14.24%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.44%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.61%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.68 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.91 | ||
| P/S | 0.59 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.05 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.03 | ||
| P/B | 0.77 | ||
| P/tB | 0.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.63 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY17.61%
EPS(NY)2.63
Fwd EY11.22%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY14.17%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY19.9%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)1.26
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.95 |
F-Score8
WACC7.49%
ROIC/WACC0.77
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y24.8%
EPS Next 2Y-11.2%
EPS Next 3Y-2.16%
EPS Next 5Y11.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.11%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.85%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.09%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year47.42%
EBIT Next 3Y3.96%
EBIT Next 5Y8.89%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for HOG stock?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is expected to grow by 24.8% in the next year.