HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
21.43 USD
+0.28 (+1.32%)
21.3562 USD
-0.07 (-0.34%)
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years HOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 4.74%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.29% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of HOG (14.03%) is better than 97.14% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.78%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.56%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a better Profit Margin (10.74%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 11.88%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 33.26%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.43% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 1.93 indicates that HOG is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.93) than 85.71% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 13.17, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 13.17 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG has a Debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is amongst the best in the industry. HOG outperforms 82.86% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
HOG has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07. This is in the lower half of the industry: HOG underperforms 62.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
ROIC/WACC0.79
WACC7.29%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 2.51 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Current ratio (2.51) than 91.43% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.36 indicates that HOG has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
With an excellent Quick ratio value of 2.36, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
HOG shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.21%.
Measured over the past 5 years, HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.52% on average per year.
HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -15.99%.
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.92% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.07% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 5.20 indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.95, the valuation of HOG can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 82.86% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.92, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.95 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 97.14% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 6.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.25 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
HOG's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as HOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.50% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.15
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.40%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.92, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.92, HOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
21.43
+0.28 (+1.32%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners94.63%
Inst Owner Change0.97%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change-0.74%
Market Cap2.53B
Revenue(TTM)4.66B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target28.06 (30.94%)
Short Float %16.59%
Short Ratio8.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-5.9%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-299.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-15.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.48%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.2 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.95 | ||
| P/S | 0.54 | ||
| P/FCF | 6.46 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.6 | ||
| P/B | 0.71 | ||
| P/tB | 0.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.25 |
EPS(TTM)4.12
EY19.23%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.05%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY15.48%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY21.73%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)0.19
PEG (5Y)1.15
Graham Number52.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.74% | ||
| ROE | 14.03% | ||
| ROCE | 7.61% | ||
| ROIC | 5.78% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.44% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.51% | ||
| OM | 11.88% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 10.74% | ||
| GM | 33.26% | ||
| FCFM | 8.4% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 13.17 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 94.5% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.21% | ||
| Profit Quality | 78.19% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.36 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
F-Score8
WACC7.29%
ROIC/WACC0.79
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.21%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%240.66%
EPS Next Y26.89%
EPS Next 2Y-19.59%
EPS Next 3Y-4.5%
EPS Next 5Y11.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-15.99%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%22.54%
Revenue Next Year-11.73%
Revenue Next 2Y-5.1%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.3%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.07%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year56.41%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.68%
EBIT Next 5Y8.91%
FCF growth 1Y-17.49%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y-19.18%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HOG.
What is the valuation status for HOG stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 9 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of HOG stock?
HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?
The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?
The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.