HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:HOG • US4128221086

18.64 USD
-0.04 (-0.21%)
Last: Feb 26, 2026, 11:13 AM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Analyst Ratings Earnings Estimates Financials Ownership News
Fundamental Rating

7

Overall HOG gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. We evaluated HOG against 35 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. HOG is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year HOG was profitable.
  • HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
  • Of the past 5 years HOG 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
HOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFHOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of HOG (4.74%) is better than 94.29% of its industry peers.
  • HOG has a better Return On Equity (14.03%) than 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (5.49%) is better than 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.08%. This is in line with the industry average of 5.06%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (5.08%) for HOG is below the current ROIC(5.49%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.74%
ROE 14.03%
ROIC 5.49%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.61%
ROE(5y)19.57%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.23%
HOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICHOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • HOG's Profit Margin of 10.74% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.14% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
  • With an excellent Operating Margin value of 11.88%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.14% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has grown nicely.
  • Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 33.26%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.43% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has declined.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 11.88%
PM (TTM) 10.74%
GM 33.26%
OM growth 3Y-18.2%
OM growth 5Y20.19%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-6.57%
GM growth 5Y-2.23%
HOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsHOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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7

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
  • HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for HOG has been reduced compared to a year ago.
HOG Yearly Shares OutstandingHOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50M 100M 150M
HOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsHOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

  • HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.90. This is not the best score and indicates that HOG is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of HOG (1.90) is better than 88.57% of its industry peers.
  • HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 13.17. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 13.17 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 13.17, HOG is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
  • HOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.07 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HOG is outperformed by 62.86% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.07
Debt/FCF 13.17
Altman-Z 1.9
ROIC/WACC0.79
WACC6.96%
HOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFHOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.3 Liquidity

  • HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.51. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • HOG's Current ratio of 2.51 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 91.43% of its industry peers.
  • HOG has a Quick Ratio of 2.36. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • HOG's Quick ratio of 2.36 is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 94.29% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.51
Quick Ratio 2.36
HOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesHOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

  • HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -21.62%.
  • HOG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 215899.16% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -13.76% in the last year.
  • HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.99% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%

3.2 Future

  • HOG is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 20.48% yearly.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.96% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-19.45%
EPS Next 2Y4.52%
EPS Next 3Y24.86%
EPS Next 5Y20.48%
Revenue Next Year-0.21%
Revenue Next 2Y1.61%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.35%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
HOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesHOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
HOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesHOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2 4 6 8 10

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8

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 7.14, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of HOG.
  • HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.05, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.87 indicates a reasonable valuation of HOG.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 88.57% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 28.03, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 7.14
Fwd PE 8.87
HOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsHOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 94.29% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 97.14% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 5.62
EV/EBITDA 6.8
HOG Per share dataHOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • HOG's earnings are expected to grow with 24.86% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
EPS Next 2Y4.52%
EPS Next 3Y24.86%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

6

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

  • HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.70%.
  • The stock price of HOG dropped by -23.72% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 0.91, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 91.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.80, HOG pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.7%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
  • HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
  • HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
HOG Yearly Dividends per shareHOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • 17.57% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP17.57%
EPS Next 2Y4.52%
EPS Next 3Y24.86%
HOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendHOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
HOG Dividend Payout.HOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.HOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC

NYSE:HOG (2/26/2026, 11:13:53 AM)

18.64

-0.04 (-0.21%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)02-10
Earnings (Next)04-29
Inst Owners94.63%
Inst Owner Change4.83%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change1.39%
Market Cap2.20B
Revenue(TTM)4.47B
Net Income(TTM)501.15M
Analysts69.52
Price Target27.04 (45.06%)
Short Float %15.52%
Short Ratio5.62
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.7%
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP17.57%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date03-02
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)45.64%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)100.25%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)21.85%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)100.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)62.38%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)77.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)70.13%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.81%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.81%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.68%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.4%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.74%
PT rev (1m)-3.63%
PT rev (3m)-7.92%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.99%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.86%
EPS NY rev (3m)-19.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.07%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.11%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.25%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 7.14
Fwd PE 8.87
P/S 0.47
P/FCF 5.62
P/OCF 4
P/B 0.62
P/tB 0.63
EV/EBITDA 6.8
EPS(TTM)2.61
EY14%
EPS(NY)2.1
Fwd EY11.28%
FCF(TTM)3.32
FCFY17.79%
OCF(TTM)4.66
OCFY24.98%
SpS39.48
BVpS30.24
TBVpS29.7
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0
Graham Number42.14
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.74%
ROE 14.03%
ROCE 7.61%
ROIC 5.49%
ROICexc 7.06%
ROICexgc 7.13%
OM 11.88%
PM (TTM) 10.74%
GM 33.26%
FCFM 8.4%
ROA(3y)4.62%
ROA(5y)5.24%
ROE(3y)15.61%
ROE(5y)19.57%
ROIC(3y)5.08%
ROIC(5y)6.23%
ROICexc(3y)7.66%
ROICexc(5y)8.54%
ROICexgc(3y)7.69%
ROICexgc(5y)8.61%
ROCE(3y)7.03%
ROCE(5y)8.65%
ROICexgc growth 3Y3.26%
ROICexgc growth 5Y41.44%
ROICexc growth 3Y3.59%
ROICexc growth 5Y41.81%
OM growth 3Y-18.2%
OM growth 5Y20.19%
PM growth 3Y-16.23%
PM growth 5Y198.3%
GM growth 3Y-6.57%
GM growth 5Y-2.23%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.44
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.07
Debt/FCF 13.17
Debt/EBITDA 5.31
Cap/Depr 94.5%
Cap/Sales 3.39%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 76.21%
Profit Quality 78.19%
Current Ratio 2.51
Quick Ratio 2.36
Altman-Z 1.9
F-Score6
WACC6.96%
ROIC/WACC0.79
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.62%
EPS 3Y-19.32%
EPS 5Y215899.16%
EPS Q2Q%-162.37%
EPS Next Y-19.45%
EPS Next 2Y4.52%
EPS Next 3Y24.86%
EPS Next 5Y20.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.76%
Revenue growth 3Y-8.06%
Revenue growth 5Y1.99%
Sales Q2Q%-9.82%
Revenue Next Year-0.21%
Revenue Next 2Y1.61%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.35%
Revenue Next 5Y1.96%
EBIT growth 1Y-5.86%
EBIT growth 3Y-24.79%
EBIT growth 5Y22.58%
EBIT Next Year-31.06%
EBIT Next 3Y6.28%
EBIT Next 5Y6.31%
FCF growth 1Y-49.1%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-43.8%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC / HOG FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to HOG.


What is the valuation status for HOG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 8 / 10 to HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG). This can be considered as Undervalued.


What is the profitability of HOG stock?

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.


How financially healthy is HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC?

The financial health rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 7 / 10.


How sustainable is the dividend of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) stock?

The dividend rating of HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 17.57%.