HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG)       46.03  +0.91 (+2.02%)

46.03  +0.91 (+2.02%)

US4128221086 - Common Stock - After market: 46.03 0 (0%)


Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 36 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of HOG get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. HOG has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.




Profitability

Profitability Rating

6

HOG's Return On Equity of 25.39% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG does better than the industry average Return On Equity of 21.77%.
HOG has a Profit Margin of 12.81%. This is better than the industry average of 7.39%.

The Piotroski-F score of HOG is 7.00. This is a strong score and indicates good health and profitability for HOG.
HOG's Return On Assets of 6.05% is in line with the rest of the industry. The industry average Return On Assets is 6.05%.
VS Industry

ROA (6.05%) VS Industry: 54% outperformed.

2.20
15.03

ROE (25.39%) VS Industry: 63% outperformed.

2.40
38.59

Profit Margin (12.81%) VS Industry: 80% outperformed.

3.43
18.92

Valuation

Valuation Rating

5

The Price/Earnings Ratio is 9.53, which indicates a very decent valuation of HOG.
With a Forward Price/Earnings Ratio of 9.61, the valuation of HOG can be described as very reasonable.
The low PEG Ratio, which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
Compared to an average industry Price/Earning Ratio of 9.53, HOG is valued in line with its industry peers.

With a price book ratio of 2.37, HOG is valued correctly.
Compared to an average industry price book ratio of 1.88, HOG is valued more expensive than its industry peers.
When comparing the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HOG to the average industry ratio of 8.13, HOG is valued more expensive than its industry peers. 82% of the companies listed in the same industry are valued cheaper.
VS Industry

Price/Earnings (9.53) VS Industry: 45% outperformed.

46.44
3.22

Price/Book (2.37) VS Industry: 39% outperformed.

96.43
0.15

Enterprise Value/ EBITDA (10.85) VS Industry: 18% outperformed.

32.75
0.96

Growth

Growth Rating

5

HOG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 40.82%, which is quite impressive.
The EPS growth is accelerating: in the next 5 years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue has grown by 11.58% in the past year. This is quite good.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last 5 years to the growth rate of the upcoming 5 years, we see that the growth is accelerating.

The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 1.91% on average over the past 5 years.
HOG is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming 5 years, the EPS will grow by 6.13% yearly.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -2.31% on average over the past 5 years.
Based on estimates for the next 5 years, HOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.07% on average per year.

PastFuture
5Y3Y1Y1Y2Y3Y5Y
EPS1.91% 7.62% 40.82% 14.15% 6.79% 8.53% 6.13%
Revenue-2.31% -2.27% 11.58% 12.27% 7.03% 6.92% 8.07%

Health

Health Rating

4

HOG has a good Piotroski-F score of 7.00. This indicates a good health and good profitability for HOG.
A Current Ratio of 1.36 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
A Quick Ratio of 1.18 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick Ratio is in line with the industry averages, which is at 1.29.

HOG has a Altman-Z score comparable to the industry average, which is at 1.38.
When comparing the Current Ratio of HOG to the average industry Current Ratio of 1.85, HOG is less able to pay its short term obligations than its industry peers.
Compared to an average industry Debt to Equity Ratio of 0.24, HOG is requires more financing than its industry peers. 94% of its industry peers have a better Debt to Equity Ratio.
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.59, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
VS Industry

Debt/Equity (1.67) VS Industry: 6% outperformed.

3.87
0.00

Quick Ratio (1.18) VS Industry: 45% outperformed.

0.02
25.25

Current Ratio (1.36) VS Industry: 36% outperformed.

0.02
26.56

Altman-Z (1.59) VS Industry: 58% outperformed.

-10.55
22.88

Dividend

Dividend Rating

4

12.93% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.46%, HOG has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.

HOG's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 2.04.
HOG's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.41.
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -25.99%.
VS Industry

Dividend Yield (1.46%) VS Industry: 25% outperformed.

0.68
7.42

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC46.03

NYSE:HOG (1/31/2023, 7:04:00 PM)+0.91 (+2.02%)

After market: 46.03 0 (0%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS Sector Consumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroup Automobiles & Components
GICS Industry Automobiles
Earnings (Last) 10-26 2022-10-26/bmo Earnings (Next) 02-06 2023-02-06
Inst Owners 85.93% Inst Owner Change 0.74%
Ins Owners 0.46% Ins Owner Change 4.4%
Market Cap 6.73B Analysts 71.43
Price Target 48.76 (5.93%)

Dividend
Dividend Yield 1.46% Dividend Growth -25.99%
DP 12.93% Ex-Date N/A

Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2) 2 Avg EPS beat(2) 30.57%
Min EPS beat(2) 26.13% Max EPS beat(2) 35%
EPS beat(4) 3 Avg EPS beat(4) 49.08%
Min EPS beat(4) -1.22% Max EPS beat(4) 136.39%
Revenue beat(2) 2 Avg Revenue beat(2) 19.27%
Min Revenue beat(2) 18.47% Max Revenue beat(2) 20.07%
Revenue beat(4) 4 Avg Revenue beat(4) 25.75%
Min Revenue beat(4) 12.84% Max Revenue beat(4) 51.6%
PT rev (1m) 0% EPS NQ rev (1m) 0%
EPS NY rev (1m) 0% Revenue NQ rev (1m) 0%
Revenue NY rev (1m) 0%

Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.53
Fwd PE 9.61
P/S 1.2
P/FCF 13.98
P/OCF 10.77
P/B 2.37
P/tB 2.42
EV/EBITDA 10.85
EPS(TTM) 4.83 EY 10.49%
EPS(NY) 4.79 Fwd EY 10.41%
FCF(TTM) 3.29 FCFY 7.15%
OCF(TTM) 4.27 OCFY 9.29%
SpS 38.51 BVpS 19.43
TBVpS 19.02 PEG (NY) 0.67
PEG (5Y) 4.98

Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.05%
ROE 25.39%
ROIC 7.99%
ROICexc 9.91%
ROICexgc 9.99%
OM 15.99%
PM 12.81%
GM 36.52%
ROICexgc(3y) 6.23% ROICexcg growth 3Y 2.91%
ROICexcg growth 5Y -2.53% ROICexc(3y) 6.16%
ROICexc growth 3Y 2.85% ROICexc growth 5Y -2.57%
OM growth 3Y 3.16% OM growth 5Y -2.35%
PM growth 3Y 9.42% PM growth 5Y 1.08%
GM growth 3Y -2.14% GM growth 5Y -2.28%
F-Score 7 Asset Turnover 0.47

Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.67
Debt/FCF 14.9
Debt/EBITDA 6.78
Cap/Depr 91.17%
Profit Quality 66.73%
Current Ratio 1.36
Quick Ratio 1.18
Altman-Z 1.59
F-Score 7 WACC 7.99%
ROIC/WACC 1.25 Cap/Depr(3y) 73.79%
Cap/Depr(5y) 78.96% Profit Quality(3y) 26938.9%
Profit Quality(5y) 16231.3%

Growth
EPS 1Y 40.82% EPS 3Y 7.62%
EPS 5Y 1.91% EPS growth Q2Q 69.52%
EPS Next Y 14.15% EPS Next 2Y 6.79%
EPS Next 3Y 8.53% EPS Next 5Y 6.13%
Revenue growth 1Y 11.58% Revenue growth 3Y -2.27%
Revenue growth 5Y -2.31% Revenue growth Q2Q 20.75%
Revenue Next Year 12.27% Revenue Next 2Y 7.03%
Revenue Next 3Y 6.92% Revenue Next 5Y 8.07%
EBIT growth 1Y 19% EBIT growth 3Y 0.82%
EBIT growth 5Y -4.6% EBIT Next Year 41.61%
EBIT Next 3Y 15.36% EBIT Next 5Y 11.33%
FCF growth 1Y -51.99% FCF growth 3Y -4.83%
FCF growth 5Y -1.4% OCF growth 1Y -45.89%
OCF growth 3Y -6.82% OCF growth 5Y -3.64%

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