HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG)

US4128221086 - Common Stock

37.71  +0.16 (+0.43%)

Fundamental Rating

6

Overall HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated HOG against 40 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. While HOG has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on HOG. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.



8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year HOG was profitable.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years HOG has always been profitable.
Of the past 5 years HOG 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.

1.2 Ratios

HOG has a better Return On Assets (5.80%) than 89.74% of its industry peers.
HOG's Return On Equity of 21.83% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 92.31% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.05%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 87.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for HOG is in line with the industry average of 8.30%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.8%
ROE 21.83%
ROIC 6.05%
ROA(3y)6.05%
ROA(5y)4.44%
ROE(3y)24.24%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)7.52%
ROIC(5y)5.94%

1.3 Margins

With an excellent Profit Margin value of 12.19%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.87% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 13.56%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.44% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
HOG's Gross Margin of 37.83% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 97.44% of its industry peers.
HOG's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.56%
PM (TTM) 12.19%
GM 37.83%
OM growth 3Y57.06%
OM growth 5Y-1.11%
PM growth 3Y622.77%
PM growth 5Y5.42%
GM growth 3Y-3.13%
GM growth 5Y-4.13%

5

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

HOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has an improved debt to assets ratio.

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.64, we must say that HOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 1.64, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.79% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG is 15.39, which is on the high side as it means it would take HOG, 15.39 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
HOG has a better Debt to FCF ratio (15.39) than 82.05% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.02. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
HOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 2.02 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. HOG is outperformed by 79.49% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.02
Debt/FCF 15.39
Altman-Z 1.64
ROIC/WACC0.72
WACC8.36%

2.3 Liquidity

HOG has a Current Ratio of 2.03. This indicates that HOG is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a better Current ratio (2.03) than 69.23% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.74 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
HOG's Quick ratio of 1.74 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 71.79% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.03
Quick Ratio 1.74

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

HOG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 1.86%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.42% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.26% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, HOG shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 0.41% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.86%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y7.42%
EPS growth Q2Q-22.47%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.26%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y0.41%
Revenue growth Q2Q-6.04%

3.2 Future

HOG is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 3.62% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.54% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-8.57%
EPS Next 2Y1.01%
EPS Next 3Y-1.22%
EPS Next 5Y3.62%
Revenue Next Year-1.62%
Revenue Next 2Y1.93%
Revenue Next 3Y6.9%
Revenue Next 5Y7.54%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.

8

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 7.66, the valuation of HOG can be described as very cheap.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 92.31% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.00, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
HOG is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.56.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 87.18% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.38.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 7.66
Fwd PE 8.56

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 84.62% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of HOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: HOG is cheaper than 92.31% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 11.06
EV/EBITDA 10.33

4.3 Compensation for Growth

HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.03
EPS Next 2Y1.01%
EPS Next 3Y-1.22%

5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.75%.
HOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.87. HOG pays more dividend than 87.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.48, HOG is paying slightly less dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.75%

5.2 History

The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -15.76%.
HOG has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-15.76%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3

5.3 Sustainability

HOG pays out 13.26% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP13.26%
EPS Next 2Y1.01%
EPS Next 3Y-1.22%

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC

NYSE:HOG (2/22/2024, 11:06:54 AM)

37.71

+0.16 (+0.43%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap5.25B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.75%
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
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EPS beat(8)
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EPS beat(12)
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EPS beat(16)
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Revenue beat(2)
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Revenue beat(8)
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Revenue beat(12)
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Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 7.66
Fwd PE 8.56
P/S
P/FCF
P/OCF
P/B
P/tB
EV/EBITDA
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.03
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.8%
ROE 21.83%
ROCE
ROIC
ROICexc
ROICexgc
OM 13.56%
PM (TTM) 12.19%
GM 37.83%
FCFM
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.02
Debt/FCF
Debt/EBITDA
Cap/Depr
Cap/Sales
Interest Coverage
Cash Conversion
Profit Quality
Current Ratio 2.03
Quick Ratio 1.74
Altman-Z
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.86%
EPS 3Y44281400%
EPS 5Y
EPS growth Q2Q
EPS Next Y-8.57%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.26%
Revenue growth 3Y12.91%
Revenue growth 5Y
Revenue growth Q2Q
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y