HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:HOG - US4128221086 - Common Stock
29.89 USD
-0.81 (-2.64%)
29.89 USD
0 (0%)
HOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. These ratings could make HOG a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year HOG was profitable.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years HOG had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
HOG's Return On Assets of 2.02% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 81.08% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 7.32%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of HOG (1.75%) is better than 78.38% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HOG is in line with the industry average of 5.63%.
The 3 year average ROIC (6.41%) for HOG is well above the current ROIC(1.75%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
1.3 Margins
HOG has a better Profit Margin (5.43%) than 89.19% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG's Operating Margin of 4.14% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 83.78% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 34.04%, HOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of HOG has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% |
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
HOG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has about the same debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.23. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG's Altman-Z score of 1.23 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 8.35. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 8.35 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 8.35, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.47 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.47, HOG perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 40.54% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.23 |
ROIC/WACC0.22
WACC8.13%
2.3 Liquidity
HOG has a Current Ratio of 1.37. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of HOG (1.37) is better than 64.86% of its industry peers.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.20. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG's Quick ratio of 1.20 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HOG outperforms 78.38% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for HOG have decreased strongly by -60.69% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
HOG shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -24.81%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 11.30% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -0.41% on average per year.
EPS Next Y22.9%
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue Next Year-11.21%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.59%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 15.49 indicates a correct valuation of HOG.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, HOG is valued cheaper than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of HOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.30), we can say HOG is valued slightly cheaper.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.00, the valuation of HOG can be described as very reasonable.
81.08% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.73, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, HOG is valued a bit cheaper than 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HOG, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 4.42 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 24.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of HOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.68
PEG (5Y)3.43
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.35%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.47, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 86.49% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.41, HOG has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.35% |
5.2 History
The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
HOG pays out 36.50% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP36.5%
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
29.89
-0.81 (-2.64%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners97.9%
Inst Owner Change-5.17%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change1.6%
Market Cap3.63B
Analysts71
Price Target29.82 (-0.23%)
Short Float %9.21%
Short Ratio5.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.35% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP36.5%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)13.2%
Min EPS beat(2)-8.96%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.25%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)49.94%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)70.97%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)66.85%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-4.44%
Min Revenue beat(2)-6.15%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.74%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.99%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.59%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)7.52%
PT rev (1m)1.15%
PT rev (3m)1.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)79.83%
EPS NY rev (1m)57.07%
EPS NY rev (3m)59.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.87%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.29%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.73%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11 | ||
| P/S | 0.81 | ||
| P/FCF | 4.42 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.65 | ||
| P/B | 1.1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 24.14 |
EPS(TTM)1.93
EY6.46%
EPS(NY)2.72
Fwd EY9.09%
FCF(TTM)6.76
FCFY22.61%
OCF(TTM)8.19
OCFY27.41%
SpS36.81
BVpS27.29
TBVpS26.76
PEG (NY)0.68
PEG (5Y)3.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.02% | ||
| ROE | 7.32% | ||
| ROCE | 2.24% | ||
| ROIC | 1.75% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.14% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.16% | ||
| OM | 4.14% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.43% | ||
| GM | 34.04% | ||
| FCFM | 18.36% |
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.37
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 8.35 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 286.27% | ||
| Profit Quality | 338.27% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.37 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.23 |
F-Score5
WACC8.13%
ROIC/WACC0.22
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-60.69%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-46.01%
EPS Next Y22.9%
EPS Next 2Y-9.67%
EPS Next 3Y1.86%
EPS Next 5Y11.3%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-24.81%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-22.63%
Revenue Next Year-11.21%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.85%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.59%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.41%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.22%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year-1.58%
EBIT Next 3Y-0.05%
EBIT Next 5Y9.11%
FCF growth 1Y54.51%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y39.3%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%