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HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC (HOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:HOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4128221086 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

23.38  +0.01 (+0.04%)

After market: 23.45 +0.07 (+0.3%)

Fundamental Rating

6

We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to HOG. HOG was compared to 37 industry peers in the Automobiles industry. HOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. HOG is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing. With these ratings, HOG could be worth investigating further for value investing!.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

HOG had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year HOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
HOG had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
HOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
HOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFHOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

1.2 Ratios

HOG has a better Return On Assets (2.86%) than 83.78% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Equity (11.11%) than 83.78% of its industry peers.
HOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (2.82%) than 75.68% of its industry peers.
HOG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 6.41%. This is in line with the industry average of 6.67%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.86%
ROE 11.11%
ROIC 2.82%
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
HOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICHOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30 40

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of HOG (7.39%) is better than 94.59% of its industry peers.
HOG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
HOG's Operating Margin of 6.56% is amongst the best of the industry. HOG outperforms 86.49% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HOG has declined.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 34.71%, HOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 6.56%
PM (TTM) 7.39%
GM 34.71%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
HOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsHOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30 40

5

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), HOG is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, HOG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for HOG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
HOG has about the same debt/assets ratio as last year.
HOG Yearly Shares OutstandingHOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50M 100M 150M
HOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsHOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

HOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.26. This is a bad value and indicates that HOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
HOG has a better Altman-Z score (1.26) than 62.16% of its industry peers.
HOG has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.93. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as HOG would need 7.93 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of HOG (7.93) is better than 86.49% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72 is on the high side and indicates that HOG has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.72, HOG is not doing good in the industry: 64.86% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.72
Debt/FCF 7.93
Altman-Z 1.26
ROIC/WACC0.4
WACC7.1%
HOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFHOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.56 indicates that HOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.56, HOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
HOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.36. This is a normal value and indicates that HOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
HOG has a Quick ratio of 1.36. This is in the better half of the industry: HOG outperforms 75.68% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.56
Quick Ratio 1.36
HOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesHOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2

3. Growth

3.1 Past

HOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.44%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.52% on average over the past years.
The Revenue for HOG has decreased by -17.15% in the past year. This is quite bad
The Revenue has been decreasing by -0.66% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, HOG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 7.21% on average per year.
HOG is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -0.52% yearly.
EPS Next Y-21.36%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue Next Year-9.84%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
HOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesHOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2B 4B 6B
HOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesHOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2 4 6

8

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 8.72, the valuation of HOG can be described as reasonable.
HOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 86.49% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.35. HOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
HOG is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.07.
HOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 89.19% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.19, HOG is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.72
Fwd PE 7.07
HOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsHOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40

4.2 Price Multiples

HOG's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. HOG is cheaper than 75.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, HOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 3.08
EV/EBITDA 16.24
HOG Per share dataHOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30

4.3 Compensation for Growth

HOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.93
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%

5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

HOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.08%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.67, HOG pays a better dividend. On top of this HOG pays more dividend than 89.19% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, HOG pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.08%

5.2 History

The dividend of HOG decreases each year by -14.37%.
HOG has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
HOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
HOG Yearly Dividends per shareHOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

25.39% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.39%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
HOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendHOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B
HOG Dividend Payout.HOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.HOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC

NYSE:HOG (6/20/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 23.45 +0.07 (+0.3%)

23.38

+0.01 (+0.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupAutomobiles & Components
GICS IndustryAutomobiles
Earnings (Last)05-01 2025-05-01/bmo
Earnings (Next)07-23 2025-07-23/bmo
Inst Owners98.14%
Inst Owner Change-3.29%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change8.58%
Market Cap2.84B
Analysts71
Price Target29.72 (27.12%)
Short Float %11.77%
Short Ratio6.46
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.08%
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.37%
DP25.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date06-02 2025-06-02 (0.18)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.93%
Min EPS beat(2)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(2)35.35%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)6.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-39.22%
Max EPS beat(4)35.35%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)50.61%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)74.63%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)68.18%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-6.59%
Min Revenue beat(2)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.74%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-10.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.08%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.15%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.64%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)8.36%
PT rev (1m)1.16%
PT rev (3m)-7.51%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.9%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-20.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.89%
EPS NY rev (3m)-19.52%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.54%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.79%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-6.81%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 8.72
Fwd PE 7.07
P/S 0.59
P/FCF 3.08
P/OCF 2.58
P/B 0.89
P/tB 0.91
EV/EBITDA 16.24
EPS(TTM)2.68
EY11.46%
EPS(NY)3.31
Fwd EY14.14%
FCF(TTM)7.58
FCFY32.43%
OCF(TTM)9.07
OCFY38.77%
SpS39.4
BVpS26.19
TBVpS25.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.93
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.86%
ROE 11.11%
ROCE 3.58%
ROIC 2.82%
ROICexc 3.56%
ROICexgc 3.59%
OM 6.56%
PM (TTM) 7.39%
GM 34.71%
FCFM 19.25%
ROA(3y)5.37%
ROA(5y)4.4%
ROE(3y)20.55%
ROE(5y)17.43%
ROIC(3y)6.41%
ROIC(5y)5.73%
ROICexc(3y)7.68%
ROICexc(5y)7.1%
ROICexgc(3y)7.75%
ROICexgc(5y)7.17%
ROCE(3y)8.44%
ROCE(5y)7.56%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-23.42%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.47%
ROICexc growth 3Y-23.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y-7.45%
OM growth 3Y-19.67%
OM growth 5Y-6.04%
PM growth 3Y-10.34%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3Y-0.69%
GM growth 5Y-0.54%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.39
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.72
Debt/FCF 7.93
Debt/EBITDA 11.5
Cap/Depr 112%
Cap/Sales 3.76%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 231.91%
Profit Quality 260.58%
Current Ratio 1.56
Quick Ratio 1.36
Altman-Z 1.26
F-Score6
WACC7.1%
ROIC/WACC0.4
Cap/Depr(3y)117.79%
Cap/Depr(5y)99.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.09%
Profit Quality(3y)107.15%
Profit Quality(5y)16195.2%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.44%
EPS 3Y-7.45%
EPS 5Y4.52%
EPS Q2Q%-37.79%
EPS Next Y-21.36%
EPS Next 2Y-0.37%
EPS Next 3Y4.87%
EPS Next 5Y7.21%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-17.15%
Revenue growth 3Y-0.94%
Revenue growth 5Y-0.66%
Sales Q2Q%-26.73%
Revenue Next Year-9.84%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.31%
Revenue Next 5Y-0.52%
EBIT growth 1Y-53.3%
EBIT growth 3Y-20.42%
EBIT growth 5Y-6.66%
EBIT Next Year12.75%
EBIT Next 3Y12.86%
EBIT Next 5Y11.39%
FCF growth 1Y220.86%
FCF growth 3Y0.46%
FCF growth 5Y4.77%
OCF growth 1Y141.58%
OCF growth 3Y2.92%
OCF growth 5Y4.15%