Breadth snaps back hard, but the short-term trend hasn’t flipped yet

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – October 13, 2025 (After Market Close)

Breadth snaps back hard...

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (No Change)
• Next Support at $650 - $640
• Next Resistance at $673
• Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Inside Day

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (No Change)
• Next Support at $583
• Next Resistance at $611
• Volume: Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Inside Day

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (No Change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $248
• Volume: Extreme: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Inside Day

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – October 10, 2025 (After Market Close)

After last week’s washout, Monday delivered a broad-based rebound (advancers ~79%). Short-term participation improved, but weekly gauges and the 20-day trend remain soft. This looks like a strong counter-move inside a still-fragile short-term tape.

Today’s breadth at a glance

• Advancers vs. decliners: 79.2% vs. 18.9% — a decisive one-day breadth surge.

• ±4% movers: Adv 4% 5.1%; Decl 4% 1.1% — upside intensity returned, downside tails muted.

• % above key MAs: 20-day: 38.5% (sub-50, still weak), 50-day: 52.6%, 100-day: 59.9%, 200-day: 59.8% — medium/long-term participation remains constructive, the short-term (20-day) is lagging.

• New highs/lows: NH 2.5%, NL 2.0% — extremes contained; not a leadership breakout day.

• Rolling breadth: Adv Week 30.3% / Decl Week 69.0% — weekly breadth still negative.

• Adv Month 42.6% / Decl Month 56.8% — monthly mix remains cautious.

• Adv 3-Month 61.6% / Decl 3-Month 37.7% — bigger picture still net-positive.

• Adv ≥25% in 3M: 14.9% / Decl ≥25%: 6.7% — winners still outnumber deep losers over 3 months.

What changed vs. the prior session (Fri, Oct 10)

We flagged last week’s deterioration (advancers 15.1%; decliners 83.9%) as a short-term breadth stress event with room for a reflex rally if selling pressure abated.

Today delivered that reflex: advancers jumped to 79.2% and the share above the 50-day ticked back above 50% (to 52.6%).

However, the 20-day cohort rose only to 38.5% (from 27.4%), still signaling a down-tilted near-term trend. Weekly aggregates (30% adv / 69% decl) confirm the short-term pressure hasn’t fully unwound.

How to read this tape

Bullish near-term tells: Broad participation day; upside >4% beats downside; medium/long-term MA breadth remains majority-green.

Caveats: Short-term trend (20-day) is still below 40%; weekly breadth negative; new highs did not expand meaningfully, this was more relief than leadership.

Implication: Treat today as a repair day within a still-fragile short-term structure. Follow-through (another 1–2 sessions of >60% advancers and rising %>20-day) would be the confirmation bulls need.

Bottom line & rating

The market produced a strong rebound day but has not yet reversed the short-term breadth downswing that built up last week. Until the %>20-day climbs through 50% and weekly breadth turns, the benefit of the doubt remains mixed.

Breadth trend rating: Neutral with a negative bias.

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• Kristoff - ChartMill

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