Breadth Holds Steady but Leadership Remains Thin

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 08, 2025 (After Market Close)

Narrow ranges for all US major index-ETF's

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $640 - $630
• Next Resistance at $652
• Volume: Far Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Inside Day Candle - Doji Candle

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $560
• Next Resistance at $583
• Volume: Far Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Inside Day Candle

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $225 - $230
• Next Resistance at $237
• Volume: Far Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day - Bearish Engulfing Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 08, 2025 (After Market Close)

After a mixed week of volatile swings, market breadth on September 8, 2025, showed signs of stabilization. However, the narrow leadership and tepid momentum in key forward-looking metrics indicate that the rally lacks broad conviction. The trend remains cautiously neutral with an underlying need for stronger participation.

Advancing vs. Declining:

Advancing stocks came in at 52.9%, slightly outweighing declining issues (44.8%). This is a modest improvement from September 3, but weaker than the strong advance seen on Sep 4–5.

High Momentum Movers:

• Only 1.8% of stocks advanced more than 4%, a sharp drop from 5.1% two sessions ago.

• Just 0.9% of stocks declined more than 4%, indicating that extreme downside moves were limited.

Moving Average Participation:

Stocks above key SMAs remain solid:

• SMA(20)+: 67.9%

• SMA(50)+: 68.9%

• SMA(100)+: 73.0%

• SMA(200)+: 62.4%

These numbers have held relatively stable since early September and suggest that medium- and long-term trends are still intact for a majority of stocks.

New Highs vs. New Lows:

• New Highs (NH): 6.3%

• New Lows (NL): 1.1%

While new highs ticked up from earlier in the week, the figure is still far from impressive, especially compared to September 5’s 10.1%.

Short- to Intermediate-Term Breadth Metrics

Weekly Breadth:

• Advancers: 56.6%

• Decliners: 42.4%

This shift is a recovery from the earlier dip to 37.9% advancers on Sep 3.

Monthly Breadth:

• Advancers: 74.6%

• Decliners: 24.9%

The monthly trend remains strong and consistent, unchanged from the day before.

3-Month Breadth:

• Advancers: 73.3%

• Decliners: 25.9%

• Advancing >25%: 16.6%

• Declining >25%: 5.4%

These figures remain in line with those from the past several days and confirm that longer-term breadth is healthy, though without recent acceleration.

Trend Observation & Comparative Analysis

Compared to the previous day (September 5):

There is a slight drop in upside momentum, especially in the number of strong movers (>4% gains).

New Highs have pulled back, and so has the weekly breadth strength.

However, SMA-based participation and long-term breadth remain stable, which suggests the market is pausing, not reversing.

From earlier in the week (e.g., Sep 2), the breadth picture has notably improved, that day marked a clear short-term low with only 27.3% advancers, 70.6% decliners, and weak SMA readings.

The bounce since then has been measurable but not convincing in terms of leadership or participation.

Final Assessment: Breadth Trend Rating

Current Breadth Trend Rating: 3 — Neutral

Despite improvements from earlier in the week, breadth is not expanding further. Leadership is narrow, and strong momentum moves are lacking. Without a fresh surge in participation and new highs, this rally remains tentative.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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