PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR)

US7433151039 - Common Stock

206.15  +1.5 (+0.73%)

After market: 205.7 -0.45 (-0.22%)

Fundamental Rating

4

Taking everything into account, PGR scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PGR was compared to 140 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While PGR is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. PGR shows excellent growth, but is valued quite expensive already.



5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years PGR has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR had a positive operating cash flow.

1.2 Ratios

PGR has a better Return On Assets (4.36%) than 79.86% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 19.06%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.70% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.00%) than 84.89% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PGR is in line with the industry average of 4.02%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.00%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (3.98%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.36%
ROE 19.06%
ROIC 5%
ROA(3y)3.32%
ROA(5y)5.2%
ROE(3y)13.89%
ROE(5y)20.76%
ROIC(3y)3.98%
ROIC(5y)6.2%

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of PGR (6.23%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of PGR has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 8.33%, PGR is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.92% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 8.33%
PM (TTM) 6.23%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y-21.67%
OM growth 5Y-4.38%
PM growth 3Y-22.39%
PM growth 5Y-5.17%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A

3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), PGR is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for PGR has been reduced compared to a year ago.

2.2 Solvency

PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.66. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.66 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PGR has a better Debt to FCF ratio (0.66) than 82.73% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.34. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
PGR has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.34. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: PGR outperforms 56.83% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.34
Debt/FCF 0.66
Altman-Z N/A
ROIC/WACC0.58
WACC8.58%

2.3 Liquidity

Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A

7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 46.17% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, PGR shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.05% on average per year.
PGR shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 25.20%.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.21% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)46.17%
EPS 3Y-6.48%
EPS 5Y4.05%
EPS growth Q2Q95.39%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)25.2%
Revenue growth 3Y13.34%
Revenue growth 5Y14.21%
Revenue growth Q2Q25.41%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 17.22% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
PGR is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 13.37% yearly.
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y32.2%
EPS Next 3Y25.89%
EPS Next 5Y17.22%
Revenue Next Year17.32%
Revenue Next 2Y14.88%
Revenue Next 3Y13.37%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.

3

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 33.74, PGR can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: PGR is more expensive than 69.06% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.42. PGR is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.28, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
PGR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. PGR is more expensive than 67.63% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 22.74.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 33.74
Fwd PE 22.28

4.2 Price Multiples

PGR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 11.62
EV/EBITDA 23.32

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as PGR's earnings are expected to grow with 25.89% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.66
PEG (5Y)8.33
EPS Next 2Y32.2%
EPS Next 3Y25.89%

3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

PGR has a yearly dividend return of 0.19%, which is pretty low.
PGR's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 4.13.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, PGR's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.19%

5.2 History

The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.19%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
The dividend of PGR decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.19%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2

5.3 Sustainability

PGR pays out 7.18% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP7.18%
EPS Next 2Y32.2%
EPS Next 3Y25.89%

PROGRESSIVE CORP

NYSE:PGR (3/27/2024, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 205.7 -0.45 (-0.22%)

206.15

+1.5 (+0.73%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap120.74B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.19%
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
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PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 33.74
Fwd PE 22.28
P/S
P/FCF
P/OCF
P/B
P/tB
EV/EBITDA
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)0.66
PEG (5Y)8.33
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.36%
ROE 19.06%
ROCE
ROIC
ROICexc
ROICexgc
OM 8.33%
PM (TTM) 6.23%
GM N/A
FCFM
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.34
Debt/FCF
Debt/EBITDA
Cap/Depr
Cap/Sales
Interest Coverage
Cash Conversion
Profit Quality
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
Altman-Z
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)46.17%
EPS 3Y-6.48%
EPS 5Y
EPS growth Q2Q
EPS Next Y51.46%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)25.2%
Revenue growth 3Y13.34%
Revenue growth 5Y
Revenue growth Q2Q
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y