PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:PGR - US7433151039 - Common Stock
227.82 USD
-0.97 (-0.42%)
232 USD
+4.18 (+1.83%)
PGR gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 148 industry peers in the Insurance industry. PGR has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. PGR is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PGR was profitable.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years PGR has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
PGR has a better Return On Assets (8.82%) than 95.27% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 30.23%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.27% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.23% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
PGR's Profit Margin of 12.58% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PGR outperforms 66.89% of its industry peers.
PGR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
PGR has a Operating Margin of 16.19%. This is in the better half of the industry: PGR outperforms 64.86% of its industry peers.
PGR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.19% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PGR does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PGR has more shares outstanding
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.40. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.40 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PGR has a Debt to FCF ratio of 0.40. This is amongst the best in the industry. PGR outperforms 85.81% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.19. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.19, PGR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.92% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.19 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.39%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 36.48% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 21.71% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 18.35% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.08% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.48%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%12.81%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.35%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%9.91%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.06% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 10.77% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y28.49%
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue Next Year12.65%
Revenue Next 2Y10.52%
Revenue Next 3Y9.76%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.90 indicates a correct valuation of PGR.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.11. PGR is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.78 indicates a correct valuation of PGR.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 60.81% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
PGR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 36.21.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.78 |
4.2 Price Multiples
PGR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
PGR's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.01 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PGR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.45
PEG (5Y)0.59
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PGR has a yearly dividend return of 0.17%, which is pretty low.
PGR's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.32.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.17, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.17% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
PGR has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
PGR pays out 26.80% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP26.8%
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
227.82
-0.97 (-0.42%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.87%
Inst Owner Change0.86%
Ins Owners0.21%
Ins Owner Change0.45%
Market Cap133.57B
Revenue(TTM)85.17B
Net Income(TTM)10.71B
Analysts72.41
Price Target263.76 (15.78%)
Short Float %1.04%
Short Ratio1.74
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.17% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP26.8%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-5.63%
Min EPS beat(2)-20.4%
Max EPS beat(2)9.13%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.6%
Min EPS beat(4)-20.4%
Max EPS beat(4)12.78%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)7.58%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.73%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-4.26%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.23%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.96%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.6%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.42%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.23%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.32%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.73%
PT rev (1m)-6.95%
PT rev (3m)-8.45%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.17%
EPS NQ rev (3m)2.93%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.13%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.44%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.62%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.2%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.14%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.78 | ||
| P/S | 1.57 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.83 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.68 | ||
| P/B | 3.77 | ||
| P/tB | 3.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.01 |
EPS(TTM)17.66
EY7.75%
EPS(NY)16.53
Fwd EY7.26%
FCF(TTM)29.08
FCFY12.76%
OCF(TTM)29.65
OCFY13.02%
SpS145.26
BVpS60.46
TBVpS60.46
PEG (NY)0.45
PEG (5Y)0.59
Graham Number154.99
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.23% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 16.19% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 20.02% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.19 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.49 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.27% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 49.94 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 123.36% | ||
| Profit Quality | 159.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.39%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.48%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%12.81%
EPS Next Y28.49%
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.35%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%9.91%
Revenue Next Year12.65%
Revenue Next 2Y10.52%
Revenue Next 3Y9.76%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
EBIT growth 1Y30.97%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.15%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y90.3%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%
PROGRESSIVE CORP / PGR FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for PGR stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to PGR.
What is the valuation status for PGR stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of PGR stock?
PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What is the financial health of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) stock?
The financial health rating of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) is 4 / 10.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for PGR stock?
The dividend rating of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) is 3 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 26.8%.