PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:PGR - US7433151039 - Common Stock
248.28 USD
-0.52 (-0.21%)
248.28 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, PGR scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PGR was compared to 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. PGR has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. PGR is showing excellent growth while it is valued at reasonable prices. Keep and eye on this one!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PGR was profitable.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR has been profitable.
In the past 5 years PGR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 9.03%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.21% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 32.00%, PGR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.95% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.03% | ||
| ROE | 32% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 12.66%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.97% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.28%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.18% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PGR has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.66% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PGR does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
Compared to 1 year ago, PGR has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for PGR has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.42. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.42 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 0.42, PGR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.88% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.21. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.21, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.49% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.45%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 50.35% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 21.71% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, PGR shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 21.50%.
PGR shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.08% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.35%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%84.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.5%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%12.15%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.06% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 10.77% on average per year.
EPS Next Y26.04%
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue Next Year13.71%
Revenue Next 2Y11.95%
Revenue Next 3Y10.91%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
PGR is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.43.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as PGR.
PGR is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.30, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.98, the valuation of PGR can be described as correct.
61.64% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than PGR, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.73, PGR is valued a bit cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.98 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.84 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.13 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PGR's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of PGR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.55
PEG (5Y)0.66
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.16%, PGR is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
PGR's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.43.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.16, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.16% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
PGR has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
PGR pays out 27.53% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP27.53%
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
248.28
-0.52 (-0.21%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners88.01%
Inst Owner Change-2.1%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.01%
Market Cap145.59B
Analysts73.79
Price Target288.46 (16.18%)
Short Float %1.14%
Short Ratio1.83
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.16% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP27.53%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)2.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(2)9.13%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)3.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(4)12.78%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.69%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.8%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-5.14%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.42%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.42%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.59%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.54%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.84%
PT rev (1m)-1.49%
PT rev (3m)-4.84%
EPS NQ rev (1m)9.17%
EPS NQ rev (3m)15.52%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.94%
EPS NY rev (3m)13.13%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.87%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.81%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.43%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.98 | ||
| P/S | 1.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.84 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.67 | ||
| P/B | 4.47 | ||
| P/tB | 4.47 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.13 |
EPS(TTM)17.2
EY6.93%
EPS(NY)16.57
Fwd EY6.67%
FCF(TTM)28.09
FCFY11.31%
OCF(TTM)28.65
OCFY11.54%
SpS140.48
BVpS55.6
TBVpS55.6
PEG (NY)0.55
PEG (5Y)0.66
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.03% | ||
| ROE | 32% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 16.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.66% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 20% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 48.59 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 122.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 157.91% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.45%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.35%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%84.15%
EPS Next Y26.04%
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.5%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%12.15%
Revenue Next Year13.71%
Revenue Next 2Y11.95%
Revenue Next 3Y10.91%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
EBIT growth 1Y49.12%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y120.98%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y116.97%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%