PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:PGR • US7433151039

Current stock price

203.79 USD
-0.92 (-0.45%)
At close:
203.79 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This PGR fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. PGR Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
  • PGR had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • PGR had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • Each year in the past 5 years PGR had a positive operating cash flow.
PGR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFPGR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 9.19%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.59% of the companies in the same industry.
  • With an excellent Return On Equity value of 37.29%, PGR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 98.65% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 10.88%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • PGR had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.35%. This is significantly below the industry average of 15.41%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (10.88%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (8.35%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.19%
ROE 37.29%
ROIC 10.88%
ROA(3y)7.18%
ROA(5y)5.43%
ROE(3y)29.81%
ROE(5y)22.41%
ROIC(3y)8.35%
ROIC(5y)6.4%
PGR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICPGR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 12.90%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.30% of the companies in the same industry.
  • PGR's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.55%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • PGR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 16.55%
PM (TTM) 12.9%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y80.71%
OM growth 5Y-0.92%
PM growth 3Y109.62%
PM growth 5Y-0.63%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
PGR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsPGR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15

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4

2. PGR Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), PGR is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
  • PGR has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • The debt/assets ratio for PGR has been reduced compared to a year ago.
PGR Yearly Shares OutstandingPGR Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M
PGR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsPGR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B 80B 100B

2.2 Solvency

  • PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.40. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.40 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 0.40, PGR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.81% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.23 indicates that PGR is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.23, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 67.57% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.23
Debt/FCF 0.4
Altman-Z N/A
ROIC/WACC1.26
WACC8.61%
PGR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFPGR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
PGR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesPGR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B

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6

3. PGR Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 29.89% over the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 19.56% on average per year.
  • Looking at the last year, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 16.32% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.50% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)29.89%
EPS 3Y63.44%
EPS 5Y19.56%
EPS Q2Q%14.46%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.32%
Revenue growth 3Y20.9%
Revenue growth 5Y15.5%
Sales Q2Q%7.75%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -2.66% on average per year.
  • PGR is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.32% yearly.
EPS Next Y-10.83%
EPS Next 2Y-5.31%
EPS Next 3Y-4.04%
EPS Next 5Y-2.66%
Revenue Next Year6.95%
Revenue Next 2Y7.5%
Revenue Next 3Y6.62%
Revenue Next 5Y10.32%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
PGR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesPGR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20B 40B 60B 80B 100B
PGR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesPGR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 5 10 15

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4

4. PGR Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.17, the valuation of PGR can be described as reasonable.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as PGR.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.96), we can say PGR is valued rather cheaply.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.52 indicates a correct valuation of PGR.
  • PGR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. PGR is more expensive than 60.14% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 24.04. PGR is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.17
Fwd PE 12.52
PGR Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsPGR Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as PGR.
  • PGR's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 6.94
EV/EBITDA 8.55
PGR Per share dataPGR EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 50 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • PGR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as PGR's earnings are expected to decrease with -4.04% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.57
EPS Next 2Y-5.31%
EPS Next 3Y-4.04%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. PGR Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a yearly dividend of 0.19%, PGR is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.94, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.19, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.91.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.19%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of PGR is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 12.68%!
  • PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • PGR has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.68%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
PGR Yearly Dividends per sharePGR Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 4 6 8 10

5.3 Sustainability

  • 25.39% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PGR. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.39%
EPS Next 2Y-5.31%
EPS Next 3Y-4.04%
PGR Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendPGR Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5B 10B 15B
PGR Dividend Payout.PGR Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.PGR Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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PGR Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

PROGRESSIVE CORP

NYSE:PGR (3/17/2026, 3:42:52 PM)

After market: 203.79 0 (0%)

203.79

-0.92 (-0.45%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)01-28
Earnings (Next)05-04
Inst Owners88.36%
Inst Owner Change-1.09%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change-1.44%
Market Cap119.40B
Revenue(TTM)87.64B
Net Income(TTM)11.31B
Analysts70.34
Price Target241.65 (18.58%)
Short Float %1.24%
Short Ratio2.06
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.19%
Yearly Dividend4.9
Dividend Growth(5Y)12.68%
DP25.39%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date04-02
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-7.81%
Min EPS beat(2)-20.4%
Max EPS beat(2)4.78%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-2.6%
Min EPS beat(4)-20.4%
Max EPS beat(4)9.13%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)5.54%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.79%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)-3.3%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.3%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.64%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.96%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.92%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.64%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.42%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.09%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.29%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.88%
PT rev (1m)-2.56%
PT rev (3m)-8.29%
EPS NQ rev (1m)7.36%
EPS NQ rev (3m)4.57%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.39%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.45%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.25%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.5%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.1%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.17
Fwd PE 12.52
P/S 1.36
P/FCF 6.94
P/OCF 6.8
P/B 3.94
P/tB 3.94
EV/EBITDA 8.55
EPS(TTM)18.25
EY8.96%
EPS(NY)16.27
Fwd EY7.99%
FCF(TTM)29.36
FCFY14.41%
OCF(TTM)29.95
OCFY14.7%
SpS149.58
BVpS51.75
TBVpS51.75
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.57
Graham Number145.78
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.19%
ROE 37.29%
ROCE 13.71%
ROIC 10.88%
ROICexc 10.89%
ROICexgc 11.62%
OM 16.55%
PM (TTM) 12.9%
GM N/A
FCFM 19.63%
ROA(3y)7.18%
ROA(5y)5.43%
ROE(3y)29.81%
ROE(5y)22.41%
ROIC(3y)8.35%
ROIC(5y)6.4%
ROICexc(3y)8.36%
ROICexc(5y)6.41%
ROICexgc(3y)8.99%
ROICexgc(5y)6.97%
ROCE(3y)10.52%
ROCE(5y)8.07%
ROICexgc growth 3Y87.07%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-0.21%
ROICexc growth 3Y90.24%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.75%
OM growth 3Y80.71%
OM growth 5Y-0.92%
PM growth 3Y109.62%
PM growth 5Y-0.63%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.23
Debt/FCF 0.4
Debt/EBITDA 0.47
Cap/Depr 111.18%
Cap/Sales 0.4%
Interest Coverage 52.54
Cash Conversion 118.46%
Profit Quality 152.1%
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
Altman-Z N/A
F-Score8
WACC8.61%
ROIC/WACC1.26
Cap/Depr(3y)98.54%
Cap/Depr(5y)90.91%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.39%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.46%
Profit Quality(3y)198.75%
Profit Quality(5y)353.28%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)29.89%
EPS 3Y63.44%
EPS 5Y19.56%
EPS Q2Q%14.46%
EPS Next Y-10.83%
EPS Next 2Y-5.31%
EPS Next 3Y-4.04%
EPS Next 5Y-2.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.32%
Revenue growth 3Y20.9%
Revenue growth 5Y15.5%
Sales Q2Q%7.75%
Revenue Next Year6.95%
Revenue Next 2Y7.5%
Revenue Next 3Y6.62%
Revenue Next 5Y10.32%
EBIT growth 1Y31.92%
EBIT growth 3Y118.48%
EBIT growth 5Y14.43%
EBIT Next YearN/A
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y15.95%
FCF growth 3Y37.92%
FCF growth 5Y20.82%
OCF growth 1Y16.07%
OCF growth 3Y36.84%
OCF growth 5Y20.51%

PROGRESSIVE CORP / PGR Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for PGR stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to PGR.


Can you provide the valuation status for PROGRESSIVE CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of PGR stock?

PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


What is the valuation of PROGRESSIVE CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) is 11.17 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 3.94.


How sustainable is the dividend of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) stock?

The dividend rating of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) is 4 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 25.39%.