PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:PGR - US7433151039 - Common Stock
249.21 USD
+0.26 (+0.1%)
249.15 USD
-0.06 (-0.02%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to PGR. PGR was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. PGR has an average financial health and profitability rating. PGR is not priced too expensively while it is growing strongly. Keep and eye on this one!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
PGR had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
PGR had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years PGR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
PGR has a Return On Assets of 9.03%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PGR outperforms 95.80% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of PGR (32.00%) is better than 97.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.03% | ||
| ROE | 32% | ||
| ROIC | N/A |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 12.66%, PGR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 75.52% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 16.28%, PGR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.33% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.66% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PGR does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PGR has more shares outstanding
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of PGR is 0.42, which is an excellent value as it means it would take PGR, only 0.42 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PGR (0.42) is better than 82.52% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.21 indicates that PGR is not too dependend on debt financing.
PGR's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.21 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PGR outperforms 69.23% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC8.64%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 50.35% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 21.71% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has grown by 21.50% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.35%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%84.15%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.5%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%12.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.06% on average per year.
PGR is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.77% yearly.
EPS Next Y26.04%
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue Next Year13.95%
Revenue Next 2Y12.19%
Revenue Next 3Y11.11%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.49, PGR is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.24), we can say PGR is valued slightly cheaper.
PGR is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.04.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than 60.84% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.81, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.04 |
4.2 Price Multiples
PGR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.87 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.16 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PGR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.56
PEG (5Y)0.67
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.16%, PGR is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.52, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, PGR's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.16% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PGR has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
27.53% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PGR. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP27.53%
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
249.21
+0.26 (+0.1%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners88.01%
Inst Owner Change-2.11%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.16%
Market Cap146.09B
Analysts74.07
Price Target288.09 (15.6%)
Short Float %1.2%
Short Ratio1.85
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.16% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP27.53%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)2.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(2)9.13%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)3.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(4)12.78%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.69%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.8%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-5.14%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.42%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.42%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.59%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.54%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.84%
PT rev (1m)-3.26%
PT rev (3m)-6.24%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.77%
EPS NQ rev (3m)12.07%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.94%
EPS NY rev (3m)13.13%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.41%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.36%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.5%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.5%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.04 | ||
| P/S | 1.77 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.87 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.7 | ||
| P/B | 4.48 | ||
| P/tB | 4.48 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 11.16 |
EPS(TTM)17.2
EY6.9%
EPS(NY)16.57
Fwd EY6.65%
FCF(TTM)28.1
FCFY11.28%
OCF(TTM)28.66
OCFY11.5%
SpS140.52
BVpS55.62
TBVpS55.62
PEG (NY)0.56
PEG (5Y)0.67
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.03% | ||
| ROE | 32% | ||
| ROCE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | N/A | ||
| ROICexc | N/A | ||
| ROICexgc | N/A | ||
| OM | 16.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.66% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 20% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 48.59 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 122.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 157.91% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.64%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.35%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%84.15%
EPS Next Y26.04%
EPS Next 2Y8.6%
EPS Next 3Y6.23%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)21.5%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%12.15%
Revenue Next Year13.95%
Revenue Next 2Y12.19%
Revenue Next 3Y11.11%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
EBIT growth 1Y49.12%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y120.98%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y116.97%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%