PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:PGR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7433151039 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to PGR. PGR was compared to 144 industry peers in the Insurance industry. PGR has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. PGR is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PGR was profitable.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years PGR has always been profitable.
PGR had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.82%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.83% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 30.10%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.22% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.76%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 93.06% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.25%. This is in line with the industry average of 4.07%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.76%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (5.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.1% | ||
| ROIC | 8.76% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 11.10%, PGR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.44% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 14.38%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.58% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PGR has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.1% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PGR has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 5 years ago.
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of PGR is 0.44, which is an excellent value as it means it would take PGR, only 0.44 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PGR (0.44) is better than 79.86% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.24 indicates that PGR is not too dependend on debt financing.
PGR has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.24) than 68.06% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC1
WACC8.74%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 62.89% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 21.71% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, PGR shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 20.74%.
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.72% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.71% on average per year.
EPS Next Y15.57%
EPS Next 2Y6.71%
EPS Next 3Y7.78%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue Next Year15.03%
Revenue Next 2Y13.02%
Revenue Next 3Y11.42%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 17.48, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of PGR.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 62.50% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.45. PGR is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 16.36, which indicates a correct valuation of PGR.
65.28% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than PGR, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
PGR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 21.90.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.36 |
4.2 Price Multiples
PGR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as PGR.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.75 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.83 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PGR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.12
PEG (5Y)0.8
EPS Next 2Y6.71%
EPS Next 3Y7.78%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.15%, PGR is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.51, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.15, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.15% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PGR has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
32.94% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PGR. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP32.94%
EPS Next 2Y6.71%
EPS Next 3Y7.78%
261.66
+3.86 (+1.5%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.91%
Inst Owner Change1.69%
Ins Owners0.21%
Ins Owner Change-1.39%
Market Cap153.39B
Analysts74.81
Price Target303.92 (16.15%)
Short Float %1.08%
Short Ratio1.97
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.15% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP32.94%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.43%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(2)12.78%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)8.95%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(4)30.19%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.77%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.4%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.84%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.34%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.66%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.23%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.66%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.59%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.03%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)-1.09%
PT rev (3m)-0.17%
EPS NQ rev (1m)5.55%
EPS NQ rev (3m)15.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.72%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.6%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.95%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.57%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.11%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17.48 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.36 | ||
| P/S | 1.95 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.75 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.57 | ||
| P/B | 5.3 | ||
| P/tB | 5.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.83 |
EPS(TTM)14.97
EY5.72%
EPS(NY)16
Fwd EY6.11%
FCF(TTM)26.84
FCFY10.26%
OCF(TTM)27.34
OCFY10.45%
SpS133.92
BVpS49.39
TBVpS49.39
PEG (NY)1.12
PEG (5Y)0.8
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.1% | ||
| ROCE | 11.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.76% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.78% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.42% | ||
| OM | 14.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.1% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 20.04% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
ROICexc(3y)5.26%
ROICexc(5y)6.34%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)7%
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.43%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.14%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.12%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.99%
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.44 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.6 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 103.34% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 40.89 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 138.49% | ||
| Profit Quality | 180.51% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.74%
ROIC/WACC1
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
EPS Next Y15.57%
EPS Next 2Y6.71%
EPS Next 3Y7.78%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
Revenue Next Year15.03%
Revenue Next 2Y13.02%
Revenue Next 3Y11.42%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
EBIT growth 1Y49.24%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y140.79%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y135.82%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%