PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:PGR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7433151039 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall PGR gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated PGR against 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While PGR belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. PGR is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
PGR had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
PGR had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.82%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 96.50% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Equity of PGR (30.10%) is better than 95.80% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.76%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PGR outperforms 93.01% of its industry peers.
PGR had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.25%. This is in line with the industry average of 4.27%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.76%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (5.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.1% | ||
| ROIC | 8.76% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of PGR (11.10%) is better than 69.93% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of PGR has grown nicely.
PGR has a better Operating Margin (14.38%) than 64.34% of its industry peers.
PGR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.1% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), PGR is destroying value.
PGR has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PGR has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The debt/assets ratio for PGR has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.44. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.44 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PGR (0.44) is better than 79.02% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.24. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.24, PGR is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.53% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.99
WACC8.88%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 62.89% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 21.71% on average per year.
PGR shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 20.74%.
PGR shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.08% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.72% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.71% on average per year.
EPS Next Y11.42%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue Next Year15.69%
Revenue Next 2Y13.31%
Revenue Next 3Y12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 18.77, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of PGR.
PGR's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. PGR is more expensive than 62.94% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.03. PGR is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.93, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
67.83% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than PGR, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
PGR's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 21.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.93 |
4.2 Price Multiples
PGR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
PGR's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.47 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PGR's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
PGR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.64
PEG (5Y)0.86
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.14%, PGR is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
PGR's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.17.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.14, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.14% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PGR has decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
32.94% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PGR. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP32.94%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
281
-4.63 (-1.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.34%
Inst Owner Change1.69%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.86%
Market Cap164.73B
Analysts75.38
Price Target307.27 (9.35%)
Short Float %1.06%
Short Ratio1.85
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.14% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP32.94%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.43%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(2)12.78%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)8.95%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(4)30.19%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.77%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.4%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.84%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.34%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.66%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.23%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.66%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.59%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.03%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)0.73%
PT rev (3m)5.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.38%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.78%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.47%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.63%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.62%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.93 | ||
| P/S | 2.1 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.47 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.28 | ||
| P/B | 5.69 | ||
| P/tB | 5.69 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.05 |
EPS(TTM)14.97
EY5.33%
EPS(NY)15.68
Fwd EY5.58%
FCF(TTM)26.84
FCFY9.55%
OCF(TTM)27.34
OCFY9.73%
SpS133.92
BVpS49.39
TBVpS49.39
PEG (NY)1.64
PEG (5Y)0.86
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.1% | ||
| ROCE | 11.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.76% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.78% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.42% | ||
| OM | 14.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.1% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 20.04% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
ROICexc(3y)5.26%
ROICexc(5y)6.34%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)7%
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.43%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.14%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.12%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.99%
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.44 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.6 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 103.34% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 40.89 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 138.49% | ||
| Profit Quality | 180.51% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.88%
ROIC/WACC0.99
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
EPS Next Y11.42%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
Revenue Next Year15.69%
Revenue Next 2Y13.31%
Revenue Next 3Y12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
EBIT growth 1Y49.24%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y140.79%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y135.82%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%