PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:PGR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7433151039 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to PGR. PGR was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While PGR belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. PGR is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PGR was profitable.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR has been profitable.
PGR had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
PGR has a Return On Assets of 8.00%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PGR outperforms 96.50% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 33.07%, PGR belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 96.50% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR has a better Return On Invested Capital (9.14%) than 93.71% of its industry peers.
PGR had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.25%. This is in line with the industry average of 4.47%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.25%) for PGR is below the current ROIC(9.14%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8% | ||
| ROE | 33.07% | ||
| ROIC | 9.14% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
1.3 Margins
PGR has a better Profit Margin (11.23%) than 70.63% of its industry peers.
PGR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 14.59%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.03% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of PGR has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.59% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.23% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), PGR is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PGR has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
Compared to 1 year ago, PGR has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.46. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.46 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PGR's Debt to FCF ratio of 0.46 is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 81.12% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.27 indicates that PGR is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.27, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.34% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.46 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC1.06
WACC8.6%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
PGR shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 62.89%, which is quite impressive.
PGR shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 21.71% yearly.
Looking at the last year, PGR shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 20.74%.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.08% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 2.72% on average over the next years.
PGR is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 8.71% yearly.
EPS Next Y9.98%
EPS Next 2Y5.24%
EPS Next 3Y7.23%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue Next Year15.59%
Revenue Next 2Y13.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.06%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 18.82, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of PGR.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than 64.34% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 28.88, PGR is valued a bit cheaper.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.11, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of PGR indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: PGR is more expensive than 65.73% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of PGR to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.20), we can say PGR is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.82 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.11 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as PGR.
PGR's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.25 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates PGR does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The decent profitability rating of PGR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.89
PEG (5Y)0.87
EPS Next 2Y5.24%
EPS Next 3Y7.23%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.15%, PGR is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
PGR's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.22.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.15, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.45.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.15% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PGR has decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
PGR pays out 8.06% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP8.06%
EPS Next 2Y5.24%
EPS Next 3Y7.23%
281.74
+5.43 (+1.97%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.34%
Inst Owner Change0.73%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.88%
Market Cap165.17B
Analysts76.8
Price Target305.43 (8.41%)
Short Float %1.13%
Short Ratio1.89
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.15% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP8.06%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.76%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.27%
Max EPS beat(2)12.78%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)13.69%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.27%
Max EPS beat(4)30.19%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-1.38%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.54%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.67%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.11%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.75%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.73%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.97%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.87%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.58%
PT rev (1m)1.78%
PT rev (3m)5.07%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.39%
EPS NQ rev (3m)24.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.49%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.92%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.5%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.92%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.63%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.93%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.82 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.11 | ||
| P/S | 2.19 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.13 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.92 | ||
| P/B | 6.45 | ||
| P/tB | 6.45 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.25 |
EPS(TTM)14.97
EY5.31%
EPS(NY)15.56
Fwd EY5.52%
FCF(TTM)25.3
FCFY8.98%
OCF(TTM)25.79
OCFY9.15%
SpS128.52
BVpS43.65
TBVpS43.65
PEG (NY)1.89
PEG (5Y)0.87
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8% | ||
| ROE | 33.07% | ||
| ROCE | 11.52% | ||
| ROIC | 9.14% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.16% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.92% | ||
| OM | 14.59% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.23% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 19.69% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
ROICexc(3y)5.26%
ROICexc(5y)6.34%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)7%
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.43%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.14%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.12%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.99%
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.27 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.46 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.61 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 100.35% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.38% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 39.83 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 134.08% | ||
| Profit Quality | 175.28% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.6%
ROIC/WACC1.06
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
EPS Next Y9.98%
EPS Next 2Y5.24%
EPS Next 3Y7.23%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
Revenue Next Year15.59%
Revenue Next 2Y13.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.06%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
EBIT growth 1Y112.53%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-8.55%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y42.75%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y42.05%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%