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PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:PGR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7433151039 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

277.12  -3.88 (-1.38%)

Premarket: 277.12 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

5

Taking everything into account, PGR scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PGR was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While PGR has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. PGR is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

7

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR has been profitable.
In the past 5 years PGR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
PGR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFPGR Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5B 10B 15B

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of PGR (7.82%) is better than 96.50% of its industry peers.
PGR's Return On Equity of 30.10% is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 95.80% of its industry peers.
PGR has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.76%) than 93.01% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PGR is in line with the industry average of 4.27%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.76%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (5.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.82%
ROE 30.1%
ROIC 8.76%
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
PGR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICPGR Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

1.3 Margins

PGR's Profit Margin of 11.10% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PGR outperforms 69.93% of its industry peers.
PGR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 14.38%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.34% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 14.38%
PM (TTM) 11.1%
GM N/A
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
PGR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsPGR Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15

3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so PGR is destroying value.
PGR has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
PGR has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
PGR Yearly Shares OutstandingPGR Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M
PGR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsPGR Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20B 40B 60B 80B 100B

2.2 Solvency

PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.44. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.44 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PGR's Debt to FCF ratio of 0.44 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PGR outperforms 79.02% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.24 indicates that PGR is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.24, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.53% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.24
Debt/FCF 0.44
Altman-Z N/A
ROIC/WACC0.98
WACC8.97%
PGR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFPGR Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B

2.3 Liquidity

Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
PGR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesPGR Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 62.89% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 21.71% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, PGR shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 20.74%.
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.72% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.71% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y11.42%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue Next Year15.69%
Revenue Next 2Y13.31%
Revenue Next 3Y12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
PGR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesPGR Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 20B 40B 60B 80B 100B
PGR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesPGR Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 5 10 15

2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.51, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: PGR is more expensive than 62.94% of the companies listed in the same industry.
PGR is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.91, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.68, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than 67.83% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.85, PGR is valued at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.51
Fwd PE 17.68
PGR Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsPGR Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
PGR's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 10.33
EV/EBITDA 14.62
PGR Per share dataPGR EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60 80 100

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of PGR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.62
PEG (5Y)0.85
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%

3

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

PGR has a yearly dividend return of 0.14%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.17, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.14, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.14%

5.2 History

The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
The dividend of PGR decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
PGR Yearly Dividends per sharePGR Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 4 6 8

5.3 Sustainability

32.94% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PGR. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP32.94%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
PGR Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendPGR Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5B 10B
PGR Dividend Payout.PGR Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.PGR Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

PROGRESSIVE CORP

NYSE:PGR (5/22/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

Premarket: 277.12 0 (0%)

277.12

-3.88 (-1.38%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)04-16 2025-04-16/bmo
Earnings (Next)08-04 2025-08-04/amc
Inst Owners87.34%
Inst Owner Change1.69%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.86%
Market Cap162.46B
Analysts75.38
Price Target307.27 (10.88%)
Short Float %1.06%
Short Ratio1.85
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.14%
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP32.94%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date04-03 2025-04-03 (0.1)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.43%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(2)12.78%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)8.95%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(4)30.19%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.77%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.4%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.84%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.34%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.66%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.23%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.66%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.59%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.03%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)0.73%
PT rev (3m)5.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.38%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.78%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.47%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.63%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.62%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 18.51
Fwd PE 17.68
P/S 2.07
P/FCF 10.33
P/OCF 10.14
P/B 5.61
P/tB 5.61
EV/EBITDA 14.62
EPS(TTM)14.97
EY5.4%
EPS(NY)15.68
Fwd EY5.66%
FCF(TTM)26.84
FCFY9.68%
OCF(TTM)27.34
OCFY9.87%
SpS133.92
BVpS49.39
TBVpS49.39
PEG (NY)1.62
PEG (5Y)0.85
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.82%
ROE 30.1%
ROCE 11.04%
ROIC 8.76%
ROICexc 8.78%
ROICexgc 9.42%
OM 14.38%
PM (TTM) 11.1%
GM N/A
FCFM 20.04%
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
ROICexc(3y)5.26%
ROICexc(5y)6.34%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)7%
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.43%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.14%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.12%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.99%
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.24
Debt/FCF 0.44
Debt/EBITDA 0.6
Cap/Depr 103.34%
Cap/Sales 0.37%
Interest Coverage 40.89
Cash Conversion 138.49%
Profit Quality 180.51%
Current Ratio N/A
Quick Ratio N/A
Altman-Z N/A
F-Score9
WACC8.97%
ROIC/WACC0.98
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
EPS Next Y11.42%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
Revenue Next Year15.69%
Revenue Next 2Y13.31%
Revenue Next 3Y12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
EBIT growth 1Y49.24%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y140.79%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y135.82%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%