PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:PGR - US7433151039 - Common Stock
217.53 USD
+0.26 (+0.12%)
217.838 USD
+0.31 (+0.14%)
Overall PGR gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated PGR against 146 industry peers in the Insurance industry. PGR scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. PGR has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
PGR had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
PGR has a better Return On Assets (9.03%) than 95.21% of its industry peers.
PGR has a Return On Equity of 32.00%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PGR outperforms 97.26% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 9.95%, PGR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.21% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for PGR is in line with the industry average of 4.55%.
The 3 year average ROIC (5.25%) for PGR is below the current ROIC(9.95%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.03% | ||
| ROE | 32% | ||
| ROIC | 9.95% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 12.66%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.29% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of PGR has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.28%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.18% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.66% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), PGR is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for PGR remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
PGR has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
The Debt to FCF ratio of PGR is 0.42, which is an excellent value as it means it would take PGR, only 0.42 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 0.42, PGR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 84.25% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.21. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.21, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.18% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC1.18
WACC8.46%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
PGR shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 36.48%, which is quite impressive.
PGR shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 21.71% yearly.
Looking at the last year, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 18.35% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.08% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.48%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%12.81%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.35%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%9.91%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.06% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 10.77% on average per year.
EPS Next Y28.49%
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue Next Year12.65%
Revenue Next 2Y10.52%
Revenue Next 3Y9.76%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.32, which indicates a correct valuation of PGR.
PGR's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.28, PGR is valued rather cheaply.
PGR is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.16.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as PGR.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 33.61. PGR is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.16 |
4.2 Price Multiples
PGR's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, PGR is valued a bit cheaper than 62.33% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.79 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PGR's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PGR has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.43
PEG (5Y)0.57
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PGR has a yearly dividend return of 0.19%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.39, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.19, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.19% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
PGR has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
PGR pays out 27.53% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP27.53%
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
217.53
+0.26 (+0.12%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.87%
Inst Owner Change-1.25%
Ins Owners0.21%
Ins Owner Change0.2%
Market Cap127.56B
Revenue(TTM)85.17B
Net Income(TTM)10.43B
Analysts72.41
Price Target266.97 (22.73%)
Short Float %1.1%
Short Ratio2.09
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.19% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP27.53%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)2.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(2)9.13%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)3.68%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(4)12.78%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)12.69%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.8%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-5.14%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.42%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.58%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.5%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.42%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.59%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.54%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.84%
PT rev (1m)-5.82%
PT rev (3m)-8.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)5.43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)37.33%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.38%
EPS NY rev (3m)8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.14%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.77%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.4%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.16 | ||
| P/S | 1.55 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.74 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.59 | ||
| P/B | 3.91 | ||
| P/tB | 3.91 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.79 |
EPS(TTM)17.66
EY8.12%
EPS(NY)16.53
Fwd EY7.6%
FCF(TTM)28.09
FCFY12.91%
OCF(TTM)28.65
OCFY13.17%
SpS140.48
BVpS55.6
TBVpS55.6
PEG (NY)0.43
PEG (5Y)0.57
Graham Number148.64
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.03% | ||
| ROE | 32% | ||
| ROCE | 12.53% | ||
| ROIC | 9.95% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.96% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.63% | ||
| OM | 16.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.66% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 20% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
ROICexc(3y)5.26%
ROICexc(5y)6.34%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)7%
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.43%
ROICexgc growth 5Y0.14%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.12%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.99%
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.12%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.21 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.42 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 48.59 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 122.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 157.91% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.46%
ROIC/WACC1.18
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)36.48%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%12.81%
EPS Next Y28.49%
EPS Next 2Y8.48%
EPS Next 3Y5.75%
EPS Next 5Y3.06%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)18.35%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%9.91%
Revenue Next Year12.65%
Revenue Next 2Y10.52%
Revenue Next 3Y9.76%
Revenue Next 5Y10.77%
EBIT growth 1Y49.12%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y120.98%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y116.97%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%
PROGRESSIVE CORP / PGR FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for PGR stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to PGR.
What is the valuation status for PGR stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of PGR stock?
PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
What is the financial health of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) stock?
The financial health rating of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) is 4 / 10.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for PGR stock?
The dividend rating of PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) is 3 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 27.53%.