PROGRESSIVE CORP (PGR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:PGR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US7433151039 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, PGR scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PGR was compared to 143 industry peers in the Insurance industry. While PGR has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. PGR is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
PGR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year PGR had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years PGR has been profitable.
In the past 5 years PGR always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of PGR (7.82%) is better than 96.50% of its industry peers.
PGR's Return On Equity of 30.10% is amongst the best of the industry. PGR outperforms 95.80% of its industry peers.
PGR has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.76%) than 93.01% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PGR is in line with the industry average of 4.27%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.76%) for PGR is above the 3 year average (5.25%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.1% | ||
| ROIC | 8.76% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
1.3 Margins
PGR's Profit Margin of 11.10% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PGR outperforms 69.93% of its industry peers.
PGR's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 14.38%, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.34% of the companies in the same industry.
PGR's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.1% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so PGR is destroying value.
PGR has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
PGR has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
PGR has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
PGR has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.44. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.44 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PGR's Debt to FCF ratio of 0.44 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. PGR outperforms 79.02% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.24 indicates that PGR is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.24, PGR is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.53% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
ROIC/WACC0.98
WACC8.97%
2.3 Liquidity
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 62.89% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 21.71% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, PGR shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 20.74%.
Measured over the past years, PGR shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PGR will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.72% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.71% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y11.42%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue Next Year15.69%
Revenue Next 2Y13.31%
Revenue Next 3Y12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 18.51, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PGR indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: PGR is more expensive than 62.94% of the companies listed in the same industry.
PGR is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.91, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.68, the valuation of PGR can be described as rather expensive.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, PGR is valued a bit more expensive than 67.83% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.85, PGR is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.68 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PGR is on the same level as its industry peers.
PGR's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.33 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.62 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of PGR may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.62
PEG (5Y)0.85
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PGR has a yearly dividend return of 0.14%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.17, PGR is paying slightly less dividend.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.14, PGR pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.14% |
5.2 History
The dividend of PGR decreases each year by -16.45%.
PGR has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
The dividend of PGR decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
5.3 Sustainability
32.94% of the earnings are spent on dividend by PGR. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP32.94%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
277.12
-3.88 (-1.38%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupInsurance
GICS IndustryInsurance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners87.34%
Inst Owner Change1.69%
Ins Owners0.22%
Ins Owner Change-0.86%
Market Cap162.46B
Analysts75.38
Price Target307.27 (10.88%)
Short Float %1.06%
Short Ratio1.85
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.14% |
Yearly Dividend1.16
Dividend Growth(5Y)-16.45%
DP32.94%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.43%
Min EPS beat(2)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(2)12.78%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)8.95%
Min EPS beat(4)-3.93%
Max EPS beat(4)30.19%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)4.77%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-3.4%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-7.84%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.34%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.66%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.23%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.66%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.59%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.03%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.53%
PT rev (1m)0.73%
PT rev (3m)5.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)7.38%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)8.78%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.47%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.63%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.62%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18.51 | ||
| Fwd PE | 17.68 | ||
| P/S | 2.07 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.33 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.14 | ||
| P/B | 5.61 | ||
| P/tB | 5.61 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.62 |
EPS(TTM)14.97
EY5.4%
EPS(NY)15.68
Fwd EY5.66%
FCF(TTM)26.84
FCFY9.68%
OCF(TTM)27.34
OCFY9.87%
SpS133.92
BVpS49.39
TBVpS49.39
PEG (NY)1.62
PEG (5Y)0.85
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.82% | ||
| ROE | 30.1% | ||
| ROCE | 11.04% | ||
| ROIC | 8.76% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.78% | ||
| ROICexgc | 9.42% | ||
| OM | 14.38% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.1% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 20.04% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)5.36%
ROE(3y)18.83%
ROE(5y)21.61%
ROIC(3y)5.25%
ROIC(5y)6.33%
ROICexc(3y)5.26%
ROICexc(5y)6.34%
ROICexgc(3y)5.72%
ROICexgc(5y)7%
ROCE(3y)6.61%
ROCE(5y)7.97%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.43%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.14%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.12%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.99%
OM growth 3Y16.24%
OM growth 5Y1.24%
PM growth 3Y17.23%
PM growth 5Y2.13%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score9
Asset Turnover0.7
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.24 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.44 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.6 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 103.34% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 40.89 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 138.49% | ||
| Profit Quality | 180.51% | ||
| Current Ratio | N/A | ||
| Quick Ratio | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | N/A |
F-Score9
WACC8.97%
ROIC/WACC0.98
Cap/Depr(3y)90.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)82.14%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.46%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.48%
Profit Quality(3y)462.71%
Profit Quality(5y)346.4%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.89%
EPS 3Y59.23%
EPS 5Y21.71%
EPS Q2Q%24.66%
EPS Next Y11.42%
EPS Next 2Y5.63%
EPS Next 3Y7.73%
EPS Next 5Y2.72%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)20.74%
Revenue growth 3Y16.48%
Revenue growth 5Y14.08%
Sales Q2Q%17.11%
Revenue Next Year15.69%
Revenue Next 2Y13.31%
Revenue Next 3Y12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.71%
EBIT growth 1Y49.24%
EBIT growth 3Y35.4%
EBIT growth 5Y15.49%
EBIT Next Year-5.58%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y140.79%
FCF growth 3Y25.42%
FCF growth 5Y20.26%
OCF growth 1Y135.82%
OCF growth 3Y24.89%
OCF growth 5Y19.28%