Breadth Bounces, But Caution Prevails

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 15, 2025 (After Market Close)

New All Time Highs for SPY and QQQ, IWM captured in very narrow trading range.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $650 - $640
• Next Resistance at ?
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Strong Close - New All Time High

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $560
• Next Resistance at ?
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Strong Close - New All Time High

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $235
• Next Resistance at $245
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Inside Day

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 15, 2025 (After Market Close)

After a sharp deterioration in market breadth on Friday, Monday brought a moderate recovery. However, the bounce lacks conviction, with several key indicators stalling or weakening on a broader timeframe. The overall trend remains fragile and warrants a neutral breadth trend rating.

Following Friday’s sharp breadth deterioration (Sept 12), the new week began with a moderate rebound across several short-term indicators.

The percentage of advancing stocks rose to 56.4%, a notable improvement over Friday’s weak 31.3%, though still trailing the 79.6% high from the prior Wednesday (Sept 11).

Short-Term Breadth Stabilizes

Advancing 4% Day improved to 5%, up from 3.3% on Friday. Declining 4% Day was slightly higher as well at 2.7% (vs. 2.4%), suggesting some two-sided action, but with a bullish tilt.

SMA breadth levels (percentage of stocks above key moving averages) dipped slightly or held flat:

• SMA(20): 66.4% (↓ from 68.4%)

• SMA(50): 69.6% (↓ from 70.2%)

• SMA(100): 71.8% (↓ from 72.7%)

• SMA(200): 63.5% (flat)

These levels remain healthy but show a stalling pattern after last week's run-up.

New Highs / Lows and Price Power

• New Highs (NH) bounced to 11.8%, up from 7.5% on Friday.

• New Lows (NL) nudged higher to 1.6%, but still relatively low.

• Pocket Pivots (PP) rose to 39.2%, recovering from 35.1% on Friday.

Medium-Term Momentum: Still Firm, But Flatlining

• Advancers over 1 Month: 71.6%, slightly higher than Friday’s 70.4%

• Advancers over 3 Months: 73.8%, in line with the prior 73.6%

• Adv 25% 3 Month: 18.4%, unchanged for days now

• Decl 25% 3 Month: 5.4%, stuck in a tight range

Momentum hasn’t reversed, but it's stopped accelerating.

Weekly Context

• The breadth surge on Thursday (Sept 11) was the high point of last week, fueled by a sharp upside reversal in participation.

• That strength faded on Friday (Sept 12), with advancers collapsing and decliners dominating, a potential shakeout or start of a pullback.

• Monday’s session (Sept 15) brought some relief, but without the force or volume to suggest trend resumption.

Conclusion & Breadth Trend Rating

The market avoided a continuation of Friday’s weakness, but there’s little evidence of renewed strength either. Short-term breadth has bounced, but medium- and long-term metrics are stagnant.

Without broader participation or follow-through, optimism is premature.

Breadth Trend Rating: Neutral

The trend has lost upside momentum, but downside pressure hasn’t built meaningfully either. The balance of evidence favors a cautious, neutral stance.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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