VISTRA CORP (VST) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:VST • US92840M1027

Current stock price

151.49 USD
-3.99 (-2.57%)
Last:

This VST fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. VST Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • VST had positive earnings in the past year.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of VST (1.81%) is better than 80.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Return On Equity of 14.75% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.38%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for VST is significantly above the industry average of 3.59%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.81%
ROE 14.75%
ROIC 5.38%
ROA(3y)4.14%
ROA(5y)0.77%
ROE(3y)28.12%
ROE(5y)8.13%
ROIC(3y)8.75%
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

  • With a Profit Margin value of 4.24%, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • With a Operating Margin value of 12.03%, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has declined.
  • The Gross Margin of VST (97.28%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VST has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.03%
PM (TTM) 4.24%
GM 97.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.8%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.27%
GM growth 3Y-0.92%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400

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ROAROEROICOperating and Profit MarginShow most profitable peers

3

2. VST Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is still creating some value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
  • VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B 40B

2.2 Solvency

  • VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.38. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • VST has a Altman-Z score of 1.38. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 162.19, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 162.19 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 162.19 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.74. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • VST's Debt to Equity ratio of 3.74 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VST is outperformed by 60.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.74
Debt/FCF 162.19
Altman-Z 1.38
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC7.78%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.78 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of VST (0.78) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.78. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • VST has a Quick ratio (0.69) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.78
Quick Ratio 0.69
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. VST Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • VST shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -70.43%.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.65% on average over the past years.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.98% in the past year.
  • Measured over the past years, VST shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.98%
Revenue growth 3Y8.92%
Revenue growth 5Y9.16%
Sales Q2Q%23.36%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 56.82% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.68% on average per year.
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue Next Year18.29%
Revenue Next 2Y13.5%
Revenue Next 3Y9.47%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 10 15

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5

4. VST Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 73.18, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of VST is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 24.89, VST is valued quite expensively.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 16.99, VST is valued correctly.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 73.18
Fwd PE 16.99
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80 100

4.2 Price Multiples

  • VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • VST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 395.69
EV/EBITDA 13.67
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • VST's earnings are expected to grow with 82.99% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.22
PEG (5Y)11
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. VST Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.58%, which is pretty low.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.32, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.89, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.58%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 21.96%, which is quite nice.
  • VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)21.96%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

  • VST pays out 66.22% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of VST is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP66.22%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VST Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (3/30/2026, 10:56:09 AM)

151.49

-3.99 (-2.57%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)02-26
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners92.41%
Inst Owner Change1.48%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change0.85%
Market Cap51.04B
Revenue(TTM)17.74B
Net Income(TTM)752.00M
Analysts83.33
Price Target226.12 (49.26%)
Short Float %2.98%
Short Ratio1.72
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.58%
Yearly Dividend1.47
Dividend Growth(5Y)21.96%
DP66.22%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date03-20
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-47.42%
Min EPS beat(2)-77.2%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-94.96%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-31.08%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)472.7%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)263.62%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-17.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-14.83%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-12.78%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.07%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.02%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-6.31%
PT rev (1m)-0.16%
PT rev (3m)-4.24%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-20.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.78%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.48%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.54%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.94%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.93%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 73.18
Fwd PE 16.99
P/S 2.88
P/FCF 395.69
P/OCF 12.54
P/B 10.01
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 13.67
EPS(TTM)2.07
EY1.37%
EPS(NY)8.92
Fwd EY5.89%
FCF(TTM)0.38
FCFY0.25%
OCF(TTM)12.08
OCFY7.97%
SpS52.64
BVpS15.13
TBVpS-0.44
PEG (NY)0.22
PEG (5Y)11
Graham Number26.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.81%
ROE 14.75%
ROCE 7.18%
ROIC 5.38%
ROICexc 5.51%
ROICexgc 6.59%
OM 12.03%
PM (TTM) 4.24%
GM 97.28%
FCFM 0.73%
ROA(3y)4.14%
ROA(5y)0.77%
ROE(3y)28.12%
ROE(5y)8.13%
ROIC(3y)8.75%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)9.52%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)11.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.93%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-6.03%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.52%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.8%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.27%
GM growth 3Y-0.92%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.74
Debt/FCF 162.19
Debt/EBITDA 3.75
Cap/Depr 133.59%
Cap/Sales 22.22%
Interest Coverage 2.05
Cash Conversion 80.06%
Profit Quality 17.15%
Current Ratio 0.78
Quick Ratio 0.69
Altman-Z 1.38
F-Score5
WACC7.78%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)133.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)121.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)20%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.5%
Profit Quality(3y)89.89%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.98%
Revenue growth 3Y8.92%
Revenue growth 5Y9.16%
Sales Q2Q%23.36%
Revenue Next Year18.29%
Revenue Next 2Y13.5%
Revenue Next 3Y9.47%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%
EBIT growth 1Y-47.71%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y2.83%
EBIT Next Year111.89%
EBIT Next 3Y36.65%
EBIT Next 5Y23.9%
FCF growth 1Y-89.75%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-39.37%
OCF growth 1Y-10.8%
OCF growth 3Y103.21%
OCF growth 5Y4.05%

VISTRA CORP / VST Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to VST.


Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?

The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to grow by 330.84% in the next year.