VISTRA CORP (VST) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:VST • US92840M1027

Current stock price

154 USD
+7.98 (+5.47%)
Last:

This VST fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. VST Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • VST had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
  • Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • VST has a Return On Assets of 1.81%. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Return On Equity of 14.75% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of VST (5.38%) is better than 84.21% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for VST is significantly above the industry average of 3.59%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.81%
ROE 14.75%
ROIC 5.38%
ROA(3y)4.14%
ROA(5y)0.77%
ROE(3y)28.12%
ROE(5y)8.13%
ROIC(3y)8.75%
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

  • VST's Profit Margin of 4.24% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 57.89% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has declined.
  • VST has a Operating Margin of 12.03%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 52.63% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • VST has a better Gross Margin (97.28%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VST has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.03%
PM (TTM) 4.24%
GM 97.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.8%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.27%
GM growth 3Y-0.92%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. VST Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is creating some value.
  • VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B 40B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.33, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • VST's Altman-Z score of 1.33 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 162.19. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 162.19 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 162.19, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
  • VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.74. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • VST's Debt to Equity ratio of 3.74 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VST is outperformed by 63.16% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.74
Debt/FCF 162.19
Altman-Z 1.33
ROIC/WACC0.7
WACC7.69%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.78 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of VST (0.78) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.69 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of VST (0.69) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.78
Quick Ratio 0.69
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. VST Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -70.43% in the last year.
  • VST shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 6.65% yearly.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.98% in the past year.
  • VST shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 9.16% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.98%
Revenue growth 3Y8.92%
Revenue growth 5Y9.16%
Sales Q2Q%23.36%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 56.82% on average per year.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 5.68% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue Next Year18.29%
Revenue Next 2Y13.5%
Revenue Next 3Y9.47%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 10 15

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5

4. VST Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 74.40, which means the current valuation is very expensive for VST.
  • VST's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.23.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 17.27, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of VST.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.95% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.42. VST is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 74.4
Fwd PE 17.27
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of VST is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 402.25
EV/EBITDA 13.04
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • VST's earnings are expected to grow with 82.99% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.22
PEG (5Y)11.18
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. VST Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.62%, which is pretty low.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.36, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.62, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.62%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 21.96%!
  • VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)21.96%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

  • VST pays out 66.22% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
  • VST's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP66.22%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VST Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (3/23/2026, 10:46:08 AM)

154

+7.98 (+5.47%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)02-26
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners92.41%
Inst Owner Change1.48%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change0.88%
Market Cap51.89B
Revenue(TTM)17.74B
Net Income(TTM)752.00M
Analysts83.33
Price Target226.49 (47.07%)
Short Float %2.98%
Short Ratio1.72
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.62%
Yearly Dividend1.47
Dividend Growth(5Y)21.96%
DP66.22%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date03-20
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-47.42%
Min EPS beat(2)-77.2%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-94.96%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-31.08%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)472.7%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)263.62%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-17.08%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-14.83%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-12.78%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.07%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.02%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-6.31%
PT rev (1m)-0.35%
PT rev (3m)-3.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-17.28%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-19.89%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.54%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.6%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.94%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.4%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 74.4
Fwd PE 17.27
P/S 2.93
P/FCF 402.25
P/OCF 12.75
P/B 10.18
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 13.04
EPS(TTM)2.07
EY1.34%
EPS(NY)8.92
Fwd EY5.79%
FCF(TTM)0.38
FCFY0.25%
OCF(TTM)12.08
OCFY7.84%
SpS52.64
BVpS15.13
TBVpS-0.44
PEG (NY)0.22
PEG (5Y)11.18
Graham Number26.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.81%
ROE 14.75%
ROCE 7.18%
ROIC 5.38%
ROICexc 5.51%
ROICexgc 6.59%
OM 12.03%
PM (TTM) 4.24%
GM 97.28%
FCFM 0.73%
ROA(3y)4.14%
ROA(5y)0.77%
ROE(3y)28.12%
ROE(5y)8.13%
ROIC(3y)8.75%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)9.52%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)11.8%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.93%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-6.03%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-4.52%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-5.8%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y-5.27%
GM growth 3Y-0.92%
GM growth 5Y-0.52%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.74
Debt/FCF 162.19
Debt/EBITDA 3.75
Cap/Depr 133.59%
Cap/Sales 22.22%
Interest Coverage 2.05
Cash Conversion 80.06%
Profit Quality 17.15%
Current Ratio 0.78
Quick Ratio 0.69
Altman-Z 1.33
F-Score5
WACC7.69%
ROIC/WACC0.7
Cap/Depr(3y)133.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)121.35%
Cap/Sales(3y)20%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.5%
Profit Quality(3y)89.89%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.98%
Revenue growth 3Y8.92%
Revenue growth 5Y9.16%
Sales Q2Q%23.36%
Revenue Next Year18.29%
Revenue Next 2Y13.5%
Revenue Next 3Y9.47%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%
EBIT growth 1Y-47.71%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y2.83%
EBIT Next Year111.89%
EBIT Next 3Y36.65%
EBIT Next 5Y23.9%
FCF growth 1Y-89.75%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-39.37%
OCF growth 1Y-10.8%
OCF growth 3Y103.21%
OCF growth 5Y4.05%

VISTRA CORP / VST Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to VST.


Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?

The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to grow by 330.84% in the next year.