VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
169.53 USD
+6.6 (+4.05%)
169.67 USD
+0.14 (+0.08%)
Taking everything into account, VST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. There are concerns on the financial health of VST while its profitability can be described as average. VST has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of VST (2.52%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Equity of 18.43% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Invested Capital of 5.32% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VST (5.58%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
VST has a Operating Margin (12.24%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.64, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of VST (1.64) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 44.74, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio of 3.42. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 45.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC7.87%
2.3 Liquidity
VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 0.99, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.88, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -55.17% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.49% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.69% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
VST is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 14.93% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.30% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y14.93%
Revenue Next Year14.85%
Revenue Next 2Y14.92%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y7.3%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
VST is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 68.64.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.17.
VST is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.94.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a rather cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 85.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.79), we can say VST is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 68.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.94 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of VST is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 70.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 137.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.23 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.76% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.25
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.56%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.42.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.56% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
169.53
+6.6 (+4.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners92.62%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap57.44B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.54
Price Target236.13 (39.29%)
Short Float %2.11%
Short Ratio1.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.56% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)0.06%
PT rev (3m)7.05%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.25%
EPS NQ rev (3m)38.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.46%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.31%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 68.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.94 | ||
| P/S | 3.34 | ||
| P/FCF | 137.09 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.39 | ||
| P/B | 11.03 | ||
| P/tB | 189.58 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.23 |
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.46%
EPS(NY)8.95
Fwd EY5.28%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.73%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY6.95%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.25
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROCE | 7.11% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.47% | ||
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.44% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 120.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.02 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 43.65% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.64 |
F-Score5
WACC7.87%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y14.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year14.85%
Revenue Next 2Y14.92%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y7.3%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.76%
EBIT Next 3Y29.11%
EBIT Next 5Y20.29%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -19.91% in the next year.