VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
VST gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of VST get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. VST is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
VST has a Return On Assets of 5.84%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 89.47% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Equity of 46.30% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 94.74% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 10.21%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.84% | ||
| ROE | 46.3% | ||
| ROIC | 10.21% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
VST's Profit Margin of 12.34% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 21.41%, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.34% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
VST has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.04 indicates that VST is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
VST's Altman-Z score of 2.04 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 17.77, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 17.77 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 17.77 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.60 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.60) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.04 |
ROIC/WACC1.27
WACC8.06%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.86 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST has a Current ratio of 0.86. This is in the lower half of the industry: VST underperforms 63.16% of its industry peers.
VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.86. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a worse Quick ratio (0.77) than 63.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.77 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 287.12% over the past year.
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 30.49% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 35.03% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
3.2 Future
VST is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 15.92% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.49% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-8.22%
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
EPS Next 5Y15.92%
Revenue Next Year18.73%
Revenue Next 2Y13.96%
Revenue Next 3Y12.01%
Revenue Next 5Y7.49%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 33.22, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 78.95% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.03. VST is valued slightly more expensive when compared to this.
VST is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.76.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 36.28.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.22 | ||
| Fwd PE | 24.76 |
4.2 Price Multiples
VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 63.16% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.47% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 66.66 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.38 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.09
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.43%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.76, VST has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.43, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
VST pays out 22.61% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP22.61%
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
209.6
-4.46 (-2.08%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change-0.08%
Ins Owners0.48%
Ins Owner Change0.3%
Market Cap71.12B
Analysts81.9
Price Target181.52 (-13.4%)
Short Float %2.44%
Short Ratio1.61
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.43% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP22.61%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-144.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(2)-45.99%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)5.63%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-193.42%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)411.77%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)260.09%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.46%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.33%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.12%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-4.21%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-10.24%
PT rev (1m)-0.25%
PT rev (3m)4.97%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-14.89%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.88%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.9%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.89%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-8.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.59%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.14%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33.22 | ||
| Fwd PE | 24.76 | ||
| P/S | 3.93 | ||
| P/FCF | 66.66 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.66 | ||
| P/B | 14.74 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.38 |
EPS(TTM)6.31
EY3.01%
EPS(NY)8.47
Fwd EY4.04%
FCF(TTM)3.14
FCFY1.5%
OCF(TTM)14.29
OCFY6.82%
SpS53.35
BVpS14.22
TBVpS-0.9
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.09
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.84% | ||
| ROE | 46.3% | ||
| ROCE | 13.61% | ||
| ROIC | 10.21% | ||
| ROICexc | 10.4% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 21.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.34% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 5.89% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.77 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 132.83% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.94 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 72.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | 47.76% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.04 |
F-Score7
WACC8.06%
ROIC/WACC1.27
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
EPS Next Y-8.22%
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
EPS Next 5Y15.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
Revenue Next Year18.73%
Revenue Next 2Y13.96%
Revenue Next 3Y12.01%
Revenue Next 5Y7.49%
EBIT growth 1Y140.24%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.5%
EBIT Next 3Y24.08%
EBIT Next 5Y19.54%
FCF growth 1Y180.17%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y264.94%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%