VISTRA CORP (VST)

US92840M1027 - Common Stock

141.9  +6.17 (+4.55%)

After market: 143.5 +1.6 (+1.13%)

Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 22 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. VST is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.



6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year VST was profitable.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.

1.2 Ratios

VST has a Return On Assets of 1.22%. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
VST has a Return On Equity of 8.53%. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
VST has a Return On Invested Capital of 4.58%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.22%
ROE 8.53%
ROIC 4.58%
ROA(3y)-1.5%
ROA(5y)0.3%
ROE(3y)-6.13%
ROE(5y)0.17%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A

1.3 Margins

VST's Profit Margin of 3.39% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 50.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of VST (13.01%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 105.08%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VST has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.01%
PM (TTM) 3.39%
GM 105.08%
OM growth 3Y4.15%
OM growth 5Y27.82%
PM growth 3Y17.81%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.05%
GM growth 5YN/A

4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, VST has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.29, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
VST has a better Altman-Z score (1.29) than 81.82% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 16.93, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 16.93 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 16.93 is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.67. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 2.67, VST is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.67
Debt/FCF 16.93
Altman-Z 1.29
ROIC/WACC0.59
WACC7.71%

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.98 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST has a Current ratio (0.98) which is in line with its industry peers.
VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.98. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Quick ratio of 0.88. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 45.45% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.88

6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 62.06%, which is quite impressive.
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 33.64% yearly.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.66%.
The Revenue has been growing by 10.08% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%332%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.66%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.89%

3.2 Future

VST is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 22.24% yearly.
VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.19% yearly.
EPS Next Y30.76%
EPS Next 2Y39%
EPS Next 3Y32.88%
EPS Next 5Y22.24%
Revenue Next Year8.13%
Revenue Next 2Y9.78%
Revenue Next 3Y7.83%
Revenue Next 5Y4.19%

3.3 Evolution

Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.

6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 25.75, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
VST is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 29.30, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 20.52, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of VST.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, VST is valued cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.90), we can say VST is valued inline with the index average.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.75
Fwd PE 20.52

4.2 Price Multiples

VST's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is in line with the industry average.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued cheaply inside the industry as 81.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 48.95
EV/EBITDA 15.72

4.3 Compensation for Growth

VST's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
VST has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 32.88% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.84
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y39%
EPS Next 3Y32.88%

4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.65%, which is pretty low.
VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 6.41.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.21, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.65%

5.2 History

On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 13.13%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)13.13%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4

5.3 Sustainability

96.44% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
VST's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP96.44%
EPS Next 2Y39%
EPS Next 3Y32.88%

VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (11/8/2024, 8:27:49 PM)

After market: 143.5 +1.6 (+1.13%)

141.9

+6.17 (+4.55%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap48.75B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.65%
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
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PT rev (1m)
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EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 25.75
Fwd PE 20.52
P/S
P/FCF
P/OCF
P/B
P/tB
EV/EBITDA
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)0.84
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 1.22%
ROE 8.53%
ROCE
ROIC
ROICexc
ROICexgc
OM 13.01%
PM (TTM) 3.39%
GM 105.08%
FCFM
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.36
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.67
Debt/FCF
Debt/EBITDA
Cap/Depr
Cap/Sales
Interest Coverage
Cash Conversion
Profit Quality
Current Ratio 0.98
Quick Ratio 0.88
Altman-Z
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)62.06%
EPS 3Y33.64%
EPS 5Y
EPS Q2Q%
EPS Next Y30.76%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.66%
Revenue growth 3Y8.9%
Revenue growth 5Y
Sales Q2Q%
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y