VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
VST gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has an average financial health and profitability rating. VST has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
VST has a Return On Assets of 5.84%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 89.47% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 46.30%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 94.74% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 10.21%, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.84% | ||
| ROE | 46.3% | ||
| ROIC | 10.21% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of VST (12.34%) is better than 73.68% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 21.41%, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.34% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is still creating some value.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.93. This is not the best score and indicates that VST is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.93, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.21% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 17.77, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 17.77 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VST has a better Debt to FCF ratio (17.77) than 84.21% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.60 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.60) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
ROIC/WACC1.25
WACC8.18%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.86 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST has a worse Current ratio (0.86) than 63.16% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.77 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.77, VST is doing worse than 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.77 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 287.12% over the past year.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 30.49% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, VST shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 35.03%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
3.2 Future
VST is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 15.92% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 7.49% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-8.22%
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
EPS Next 5Y15.92%
Revenue Next Year18.9%
Revenue Next 2Y13.84%
Revenue Next 3Y11.81%
Revenue Next 5Y7.49%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
VST is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 31.15.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
VST is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.41, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
VST is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.22.
78.95% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (35.19), we can say VST is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.22 |
4.2 Price Multiples
68.42% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VST indicates a rather cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 89.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 62.52 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.02
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.46%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.59, VST has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.35, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.46% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
22.61% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP22.61%
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
196.58
+0.8 (+0.41%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.48%
Ins Owner Change0.3%
Market Cap66.71B
Analysts81.9
Price Target181.97 (-7.43%)
Short Float %1.96%
Short Ratio1.14
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.46% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP22.61%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-144.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(2)-45.99%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)5.63%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-193.42%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)411.77%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)260.09%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.46%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.33%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.12%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-4.21%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-10.24%
PT rev (1m)5.71%
PT rev (3m)2.61%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.45%
EPS NQ rev (3m)19.7%
EPS NY rev (1m)-4.52%
EPS NY rev (3m)-8.33%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)7.6%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)9.46%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.28%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.99%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.22 | ||
| P/S | 3.68 | ||
| P/FCF | 62.52 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.75 | ||
| P/B | 13.82 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.5 |
EPS(TTM)6.31
EY3.21%
EPS(NY)8.47
Fwd EY4.31%
FCF(TTM)3.14
FCFY1.6%
OCF(TTM)14.29
OCFY7.27%
SpS53.35
BVpS14.22
TBVpS-0.9
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.02
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.84% | ||
| ROE | 46.3% | ||
| ROCE | 13.61% | ||
| ROIC | 10.21% | ||
| ROICexc | 10.4% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 21.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.34% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 5.89% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.77 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 132.83% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.94 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 72.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | 47.76% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.93 |
F-Score7
WACC8.18%
ROIC/WACC1.25
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
EPS Next Y-8.22%
EPS Next 2Y9.97%
EPS Next 3Y9.44%
EPS Next 5Y15.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
Revenue Next Year18.9%
Revenue Next 2Y13.84%
Revenue Next 3Y11.81%
Revenue Next 5Y7.49%
EBIT growth 1Y140.24%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.5%
EBIT Next 3Y24.08%
EBIT Next 5Y19.54%
FCF growth 1Y180.17%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y264.94%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%