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VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

150.66  -1.41 (-0.93%)

Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to VST. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. While VST is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. VST has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

VST had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

VST has a better Return On Assets (5.84%) than 90.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a better Return On Equity (46.30%) than 95.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a Return On Invested Capital of 10.21%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.84%
ROE 46.3%
ROIC 10.21%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

VST has a Profit Margin of 12.34%. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
VST has a better Operating Margin (21.41%) than 75.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 21.41%
PM (TTM) 12.34%
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
VST has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for VST is higher compared to a year ago.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.67, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
VST has a better Altman-Z score (1.67) than 80.00% of its industry peers.
VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 17.77. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 17.77 years to pay back of all of its debts.
VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 17.77 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.60 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
VST has a Debt to Equity ratio (3.60) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.6
Debt/FCF 17.77
Altman-Z 1.67
ROIC/WACC1.27
WACC8.03%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10B -10B 20B -20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.86 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.86, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a Quick Ratio of 0.86. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Quick ratio (0.77) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.86
Quick Ratio 0.77
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 287.12% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.49% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, VST shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 35.03%.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.39% on average per year.
VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.42% yearly.
EPS Next Y-3.87%
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%
EPS Next 5Y5.39%
Revenue Next Year18.52%
Revenue Next 2Y12.44%
Revenue Next 3Y9.67%
Revenue Next 5Y6.42%

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0 5 10

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

VST is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.88.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.03), we can say VST is valued inline with the index average.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.65 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VST.
80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.94), we can say VST is valued inline with the index average.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 23.88
Fwd PE 17.65
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100 150 200

4.2 Price Multiples

80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued cheaper than 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 48.03
EV/EBITDA 10.27
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.78
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%

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4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a yearly dividend of 0.59%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
VST's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.37.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.59%

5.2 History

On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

22.61% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP22.61%
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (5/22/2025, 9:51:05 AM)

150.66

-1.41 (-0.93%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)05-07 2025-05-07/bmo
Earnings (Next)08-06 2025-08-06
Inst Owners86.47%
Inst Owner Change-4.37%
Ins Owners0.43%
Ins Owner Change0.41%
Market Cap51.25B
Analysts82.86
Price Target172.52 (14.51%)
Short Float %1.97%
Short Ratio0.82
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.59%
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP22.61%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date06-18 2025-06-18 (0.225)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-144.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(2)-45.99%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)5.63%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-193.42%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)411.77%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)260.09%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.46%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.33%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.12%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-4.21%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-10.24%
PT rev (1m)-2.72%
PT rev (3m)-6.74%
EPS NQ rev (1m)11.51%
EPS NQ rev (3m)2.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.38%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.98%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.64%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)24.17%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.31%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.72%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 23.88
Fwd PE 17.65
P/S 2.83
P/FCF 48.03
P/OCF 10.57
P/B 10.62
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 10.27
EPS(TTM)6.31
EY4.19%
EPS(NY)8.53
Fwd EY5.66%
FCF(TTM)3.14
FCFY2.08%
OCF(TTM)14.26
OCFY9.46%
SpS53.22
BVpS14.18
TBVpS-0.9
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.78
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.84%
ROE 46.3%
ROCE 13.61%
ROIC 10.21%
ROICexc 10.4%
ROICexgc 12.64%
OM 21.41%
PM (TTM) 12.34%
GM N/A
FCFM 5.89%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.6
Debt/FCF 17.77
Debt/EBITDA 2.58
Cap/Depr 132.83%
Cap/Sales 20.9%
Interest Coverage 3.94
Cash Conversion 72.14%
Profit Quality 47.76%
Current Ratio 0.86
Quick Ratio 0.77
Altman-Z 1.67
F-Score7
WACC8.03%
ROIC/WACC1.27
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
EPS Next Y-3.87%
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%
EPS Next 5Y5.39%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
Revenue Next Year18.52%
Revenue Next 2Y12.44%
Revenue Next 3Y9.67%
Revenue Next 5Y6.42%
EBIT growth 1Y140.24%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.06%
EBIT Next 3Y24.63%
EBIT Next 5Y19.01%
FCF growth 1Y180.17%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y264.94%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%