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VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

173.87  +7.08 (+4.24%)

After market: 174.74 +0.87 (+0.5%)

Fundamental Rating

5

VST gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. VST has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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6

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year VST was profitable.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of VST (5.84%) is better than 90.00% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 46.30%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Return On Invested Capital of 10.21% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.84%
ROE 46.3%
ROIC 10.21%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

VST's Profit Margin of 12.34% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 21.41%, VST is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 21.41%
PM (TTM) 12.34%
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

VST has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has a worse debt to assets ratio.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.75. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 1.75, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 80.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 17.77. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 17.77 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 17.77, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.60. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.60, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.6
Debt/FCF 17.77
Altman-Z 1.75
ROIC/WACC1.26
WACC8.08%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10B -10B 20B -20B 30B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.86 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
VST's Current ratio of 0.86 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. VST is outperformed by 60.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.77 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of VST (0.77) is worse than 65.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.86
Quick Ratio 0.77
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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6

3. Growth

3.1 Past

VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 287.12%, which is quite impressive.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.49% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
VST shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 35.03%.
Measured over the past years, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.84% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 12.14% on average per year.
VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.01% yearly.
EPS Next Y-3.87%
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%
EPS Next 5Y12.14%
Revenue Next Year17.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.58%
Revenue Next 3Y10.32%
Revenue Next 5Y6.01%

3.3 Evolution

Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0 5 10

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4

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 27.55, the valuation of VST can be described as expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 80.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.60), we can say VST is valued inline with the index average.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 20.37, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of VST.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.39), we can say VST is valued inline with the index average.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 27.55
Fwd PE 20.37
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100 150 200

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, VST is valued cheaper than 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 55.29
EV/EBITDA 10.99
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.9
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%

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4

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a yearly dividend of 0.53%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.54, VST has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.39, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.53%

5.2 History

On average, the dividend of VST grows each year by 22.79%, which is quite nice.
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

VST pays out 22.61% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
VST's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP22.61%
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (6/12/2025, 5:52:49 PM)

After market: 174.74 +0.87 (+0.5%)

173.87

+7.08 (+4.24%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)05-07 2025-05-07/bmo
Earnings (Next)08-06 2025-08-06
Inst Owners86.47%
Inst Owner Change-4.25%
Ins Owners0.43%
Ins Owner Change0.28%
Market Cap59.00B
Analysts82.73
Price Target172.13 (-1%)
Short Float %2.67%
Short Ratio1.27
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.53%
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP22.61%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date06-18 2025-06-18 (0.225)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-144.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(2)-45.99%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)5.63%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-193.42%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)411.77%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)260.09%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.46%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.33%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.12%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-4.21%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-10.24%
PT rev (1m)-0.22%
PT rev (3m)-6.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)14.6%
EPS NQ rev (3m)26.24%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.38%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.73%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)23.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.82%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 27.55
Fwd PE 20.37
P/S 3.26
P/FCF 55.29
P/OCF 12.16
P/B 12.23
P/tB N/A
EV/EBITDA 10.99
EPS(TTM)6.31
EY3.63%
EPS(NY)8.53
Fwd EY4.91%
FCF(TTM)3.14
FCFY1.81%
OCF(TTM)14.29
OCFY8.22%
SpS53.35
BVpS14.22
TBVpS-0.9
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.9
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.84%
ROE 46.3%
ROCE 13.61%
ROIC 10.21%
ROICexc 10.4%
ROICexgc 12.64%
OM 21.41%
PM (TTM) 12.34%
GM N/A
FCFM 5.89%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.6
Debt/FCF 17.77
Debt/EBITDA 2.58
Cap/Depr 132.83%
Cap/Sales 20.9%
Interest Coverage 3.94
Cash Conversion 72.14%
Profit Quality 47.76%
Current Ratio 0.86
Quick Ratio 0.77
Altman-Z 1.75
F-Score7
WACC8.08%
ROIC/WACC1.26
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
EPS Next Y-3.87%
EPS Next 2Y10.41%
EPS Next 3Y8.74%
EPS Next 5Y12.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
Revenue Next Year17.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.58%
Revenue Next 3Y10.32%
Revenue Next 5Y6.01%
EBIT growth 1Y140.24%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.5%
EBIT Next 3Y24.08%
EBIT Next 5Y19.35%
FCF growth 1Y180.17%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y264.94%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%