VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:VST - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US92840M1027 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
VST gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 19 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. VST is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VST was profitable.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
VST had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
VST's Return On Assets of 5.84% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 89.47% of its industry peers.
VST has a better Return On Equity (46.30%) than 94.74% of its industry peers.
VST's Return On Invested Capital of 10.21% is amongst the best of the industry. VST outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.84% | ||
| ROE | 46.3% | ||
| ROIC | 10.21% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
VST has a Profit Margin of 12.34%. This is in the better half of the industry: VST outperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VST has grown nicely.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 21.41%, VST is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.68% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 21.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.34% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
VST has an Altman-Z score of 1.91. This is not the best score and indicates that VST is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
VST has a Altman-Z score of 1.91. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 84.21% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 17.77, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 17.77 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VST (17.77) is better than 84.21% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.60 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 3.60, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.63% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.91 |
ROIC/WACC1.26
WACC8.1%
2.3 Liquidity
VST has a Current Ratio of 0.86. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VST has a Current ratio of 0.86. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 42.11% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.77 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.77, VST is not doing good in the industry: 63.16% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.77 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 287.12% over the past year.
VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 30.49% yearly.
Looking at the last year, VST shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 35.03%.
VST shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 15.92% on average per year.
VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.49% yearly.
EPS Next Y-7.39%
EPS Next 2Y10.4%
EPS Next 3Y8.9%
EPS Next 5Y15.92%
Revenue Next Year17.39%
Revenue Next 2Y12.78%
Revenue Next 3Y10.49%
Revenue Next 5Y7.49%
3.3 Evolution
Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 30.46 indicates a quite expensive valuation of VST.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.45.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.53, the valuation of VST can be described as rather expensive.
VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
VST is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.90, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.46 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than 68.42% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VST indicates a rather cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 89.47% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 61.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.28 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1
EPS Next 2Y10.4%
EPS Next 3Y8.9%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.47%, which is pretty low.
VST's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 7.17.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.47, VST pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.47% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
VST has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
VST pays out 22.61% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP22.61%
EPS Next 2Y10.4%
EPS Next 3Y8.9%
192.2
+5.18 (+2.77%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.31%
Inst Owner Change-4.25%
Ins Owners0.48%
Ins Owner Change0.3%
Market Cap65.22B
Analysts82.73
Price Target181.97 (-5.32%)
Short Float %1.96%
Short Ratio1.14
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.47% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP22.61%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-144.27%
Min EPS beat(2)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(2)-45.99%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)5.63%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)346.48%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-193.42%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)411.77%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)260.09%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.54%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.46%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)5.33%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)24.2%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-6.12%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-4.21%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-10.24%
PT rev (1m)5.48%
PT rev (3m)1.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.77%
EPS NQ rev (3m)20.57%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.66%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.5%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.09%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)19.16%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.95%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.46 | ||
| Fwd PE | 22.53 | ||
| P/S | 3.6 | ||
| P/FCF | 61.12 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.45 | ||
| P/B | 13.52 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.28 |
EPS(TTM)6.31
EY3.28%
EPS(NY)8.53
Fwd EY4.44%
FCF(TTM)3.14
FCFY1.64%
OCF(TTM)14.29
OCFY7.44%
SpS53.35
BVpS14.22
TBVpS-0.9
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.84% | ||
| ROE | 46.3% | ||
| ROCE | 13.61% | ||
| ROIC | 10.21% | ||
| ROICexc | 10.4% | ||
| ROICexgc | 12.64% | ||
| OM | 21.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.34% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 5.89% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 17.77 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 132.83% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.9% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.94 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 72.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | 47.76% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.86 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.91 |
F-Score7
WACC8.1%
ROIC/WACC1.26
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)287.12%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-287.5%
EPS Next Y-7.39%
EPS Next 2Y10.4%
EPS Next 3Y8.9%
EPS Next 5Y15.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)35.03%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%28.78%
Revenue Next Year17.39%
Revenue Next 2Y12.78%
Revenue Next 3Y10.49%
Revenue Next 5Y7.49%
EBIT growth 1Y140.24%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year65.5%
EBIT Next 3Y24.08%
EBIT Next 5Y19.54%
FCF growth 1Y180.17%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y264.94%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%