VISTRA CORP (VST) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VST - US92840M1027 - Common Stock
166.6 USD
-13.58 (-7.54%)
166.89 USD
+0.29 (+0.17%)
Taking everything into account, VST scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. VST was compared to 20 industry peers in the Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers industry. VST has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. VST is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- In the past year VST was profitable.
- In the past year VST had a positive cash flow from operations.
- In multiple years VST reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
- Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
- Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 2.52%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST has a Return On Equity of 18.43%. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
- Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.32%, VST belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
- With a Profit Margin value of 5.58%, VST perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- The Operating Margin of VST (12.24%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), VST is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, VST has less shares outstanding
- The number of shares outstanding for VST has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- VST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
- Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.66, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
- With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 1.66, VST belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of VST is 44.74, which is on the high side as it means it would take VST, 44.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
- VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 44.74 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42 is on the high side and indicates that VST has dependencies on debt financing.
- VST has a Debt to Equity ratio of 3.42. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 45.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.91%
2.3 Liquidity
- VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- VST has a better Current ratio (0.99) than 65.00% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- VST has a Quick ratio of 0.88. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: VST outperforms 60.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -55.17% in the last year.
- VST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 30.49% yearly.
- Looking at the last year, VST shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.69% in the last year.
- The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.84% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
3.2 Future
- The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 13.74% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
- VST is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.72% yearly.
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue Next Year15.16%
Revenue Next 2Y15.68%
Revenue Next 3Y12.8%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
3.3 Evolution
- The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- VST is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 67.45.
- Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, VST is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- VST's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.38.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.61, the valuation of VST can be described as rather expensive.
- 80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.29), we can say VST is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 67.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.61 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VST.
- 70.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than VST, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 134.72 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.47 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- A more expensive valuation may be justified as VST's earnings are expected to grow with 14.76% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- With a yearly dividend of 0.50%, VST is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
- Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.64, VST pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.85, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
- VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
- VST pays out 51.67% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- The dividend of VST is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
166.6
-13.58 (-7.54%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)11-06 2025-11-06/bmo
Earnings (Next)02-25 2026-02-25/amc
Inst Owners92.62%
Inst Owner Change-0.09%
Ins Owners0.47%
Ins Owner Change0.14%
Market Cap56.45B
Revenue(TTM)17.19B
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts81.6
Price Target233.96 (40.43%)
Short Float %2.11%
Short Ratio1.57
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)-0.53%
PT rev (3m)6.07%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.21%
EPS NQ rev (3m)30.92%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)-13.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.48%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.04%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 67.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.61 | ||
| P/S | 3.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 134.72 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.14 | ||
| P/B | 10.83 | ||
| P/tB | 186.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.47 |
EPS(TTM)2.47
EY1.48%
EPS(NY)8.95
Fwd EY5.37%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.74%
OCF(TTM)11.78
OCFY7.07%
SpS50.74
BVpS15.38
TBVpS0.89
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
Graham Number29.23
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.52% | ||
| ROE | 18.43% | ||
| ROCE | 7.11% | ||
| ROIC | 5.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.42% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.47% | ||
| OM | 12.24% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.58% | ||
| GM | N/A | ||
| FCFM | 2.44% |
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.42 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 44.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.51 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 120.47% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.78% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.02 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 43.65% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.99 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.88 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.66 |
F-Score5
WACC7.91%
ROIC/WACC0.67
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-55.17%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y30.49%
EPS Q2Q%-67.59%
EPS Next Y-19.91%
EPS Next 2Y13.08%
EPS Next 3Y14.76%
EPS Next 5Y13.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.69%
Revenue growth 3Y12.56%
Revenue growth 5Y7.84%
Sales Q2Q%-20.94%
Revenue Next Year15.16%
Revenue Next 2Y15.68%
Revenue Next 3Y12.8%
Revenue Next 5Y6.72%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.76%
EBIT Next 3Y29.11%
EBIT Next 5Y19.88%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%
VISTRA CORP / VST FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.
Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.
How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?
The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to decline by -19.91% in the next year.