VISTRA CORP (VST) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:VST • US92840M1027

Current stock price

158.95 USD
-0.63 (-0.39%)
At close:
159.97 USD
+1.02 (+0.64%)
Pre-Market:

This VST fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. VST Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • VST had positive earnings in the past year.
  • VST had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: VST reported negative net income in multiple years.
  • Of the past 5 years VST 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
VST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFVST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B

1.2 Ratios

  • VST has a better Return On Assets (2.52%) than 90.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a better Return On Equity (18.43%) than 90.00% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of VST (5.32%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.52%
ROE 18.43%
ROIC 5.32%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
VST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICVST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300

1.3 Margins

  • VST has a better Profit Margin (5.58%) than 65.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • VST has a Operating Margin (12.24%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VST has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.24%
PM (TTM) 5.58%
GM N/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
VST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsVST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 100 200 300 400

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3

2. VST Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VST is destroying value.
  • There is no outstanding debt for VST. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
VST Yearly Shares OutstandingVST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M
VST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsVST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.61, we must say that VST is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • VST has a Altman-Z score of 1.61. This is amongst the best in the industry. VST outperforms 85.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a debt to FCF ratio of 44.74. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as VST would need 44.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • VST's Debt to FCF ratio of 44.74 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VST outperforms 70.00% of its industry peers.
  • VST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.42. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of VST (3.42) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.42
Debt/FCF 44.74
Altman-Z 1.61
ROIC/WACC0.67
WACC7.9%
VST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFVST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • VST has a Current Ratio of 0.99. This is a bad value and indicates that VST is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of VST (0.99) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.88 indicates that VST may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • VST has a Quick ratio (0.88) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.88
VST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesVST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. VST Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for VST have decreased strongly by -70.43% in the last year.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.65% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%23.36%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 56.82% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • Based on estimates for the next years, VST will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.68% on average per year.
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue Next Year17.46%
Revenue Next 2Y12.66%
Revenue Next 3Y7.82%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
VST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesVST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
VST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesVST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 0 5 10 15

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5

4. VST Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 76.79, which means the current valuation is very expensive for VST.
  • VST's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • VST is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.71, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 17.82, VST is valued on the expensive side.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VST indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VST is cheaper than 80.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • VST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 23.83.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 76.79
Fwd PE 17.82
VST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsVST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 50 100

4.2 Price Multiples

  • The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VST.
  • VST's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. VST is cheaper than 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 127.82
EV/EBITDA 13.9
VST Per share dataVST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 10 20 30 40 50

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The decent profitability rating of VST may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • VST's earnings are expected to grow with 82.99% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)11.54
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. VST Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • VST has a yearly dividend return of 0.57%, which is pretty low.
  • VST's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.42.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.91, VST's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.57%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of VST is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 22.79%!
  • VST has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • As VST did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
VST Yearly Dividends per shareVST Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

5.3 Sustainability

  • 51.67% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VST. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
  • VST's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP51.67%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
VST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendVST Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B 15B 20B
VST Dividend Payout.VST Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.VST Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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VST Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

VISTRA CORP

NYSE:VST (3/13/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

Premarket: 159.97 +1.02 (+0.64%)

158.95

-0.63 (-0.39%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorUtilities
GICS IndustryGroupUtilities
GICS IndustryIndependent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers
Earnings (Last)02-26
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners92.41%
Inst Owner Change1.48%
Ins Owners0.56%
Ins Owner Change0.9%
Market Cap53.56B
Revenue(TTM)N/A
Net Income(TTM)960.00M
Analysts83.33
Price Target226.49 (42.49%)
Short Float %2.98%
Short Ratio1.72
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.57%
Yearly Dividend1.38
Dividend Growth(5Y)22.79%
DP51.67%
Div Incr Years5
Div Non Decr Years5
Ex-Date03-20
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-30.06%
Min EPS beat(2)-42.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-17.64%
EPS beat(4)0
Avg EPS beat(4)-87.16%
Min EPS beat(4)-242.54%
Max EPS beat(4)-17.64%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-203.41%
EPS beat(12)3
Avg EPS beat(12)469.5%
EPS beat(16)3
Avg EPS beat(16)267.99%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-15.95%
Min Revenue beat(2)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(2)-12.57%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-7.7%
Min Revenue beat(4)-19.33%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.74%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.89%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-8.22%
PT rev (1m)-0.35%
PT rev (3m)-3.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.01%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.07%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.74%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)7.68%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)9.64%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.36%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 76.79
Fwd PE 17.82
P/S 3.12
P/FCF 127.82
P/OCF 13.42
P/B 10.28
P/tB 176.76
EV/EBITDA 13.9
EPS(TTM)2.07
EY1.3%
EPS(NY)8.92
Fwd EY5.61%
FCF(TTM)1.24
FCFY0.78%
OCF(TTM)11.84
OCFY7.45%
SpS51.02
BVpS15.46
TBVpS0.9
PEG (NY)0.23
PEG (5Y)11.54
Graham Number26.84
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.52%
ROE 18.43%
ROCE 7.11%
ROIC 5.32%
ROICexc 5.42%
ROICexgc 6.47%
OM 12.24%
PM (TTM) 5.58%
GM N/A
FCFM 2.44%
ROA(3y)2.14%
ROA(5y)0.91%
ROE(3y)13.84%
ROE(5y)6.7%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y8.13%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y9.82%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y7.02%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y12.76%
GM growth 3YN/A
GM growth 5YN/A
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 3.42
Debt/FCF 44.74
Debt/EBITDA 3.51
Cap/Depr 120.47%
Cap/Sales 20.78%
Interest Coverage 2.02
Cash Conversion 78.73%
Profit Quality 43.65%
Current Ratio 0.99
Quick Ratio 0.88
Altman-Z 1.61
F-Score5
WACC7.9%
ROIC/WACC0.67
Cap/Depr(3y)131.08%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.84%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)17.14%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-70.43%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y6.65%
EPS Q2Q%-42.55%
EPS Next Y330.84%
EPS Next 2Y131.94%
EPS Next 3Y82.99%
EPS Next 5Y56.82%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)N/A
Revenue growth 3YN/A
Revenue growth 5YN/A
Sales Q2Q%23.36%
Revenue Next Year17.46%
Revenue Next 2Y12.66%
Revenue Next 3Y7.82%
Revenue Next 5Y5.68%
EBIT growth 1Y-41.29%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y15.41%
EBIT Next Year63.68%
EBIT Next 3Y30.98%
EBIT Next 5Y20.45%
FCF growth 1Y-79.8%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-5.84%
OCF growth 1Y-19.62%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y10.77%

VISTRA CORP / VST Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VST.


Can you provide the valuation status for VISTRA CORP?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to VISTRA CORP (VST). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

VISTRA CORP (VST) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


How financially healthy is VISTRA CORP?

The financial health rating of VISTRA CORP (VST) is 3 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for VISTRA CORP (VST) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VISTRA CORP (VST) is expected to grow by 330.84% in the next year.