VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:VLO - US91913Y1001 - Common Stock
164.86 USD
-0.8 (-0.48%)
164.4 USD
-0.46 (-0.28%)
VLO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 209 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. No worries on liquidiy or solvency for VLO as it has an excellent financial health rating, but there are worries on the profitability. VLO is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VLO was profitable.
VLO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years VLO 4 years were profitable.
In the past 5 years VLO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
VLO's Return On Assets of 2.54% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. VLO outperforms 45.45% of its industry peers.
VLO has a Return On Equity (6.26%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.59%, VLO is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.76% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 18.62%. This is below the industry average of 21.18%.
The 3 year average ROIC (18.62%) for VLO is well above the current ROIC(5.59%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
VLO has a worse Profit Margin (1.21%) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
VLO's Profit Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 2.51%, VLO is doing worse than 70.33% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VLO has declined.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 3.38%, VLO is doing worse than 76.08% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VLO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% |
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so VLO is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, VLO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, VLO has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for VLO has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
VLO has an Altman-Z score of 4.45. This indicates that VLO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of VLO (4.45) is better than 89.47% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VLO is 2.67, which is a good value as it means it would take VLO, 2.67 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
VLO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 2.67. This is in the better half of the industry: VLO outperforms 78.95% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41 indicates that VLO is not too dependend on debt financing.
VLO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.41) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.45 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC8.25%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.60 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of VLO (1.60) is better than 68.90% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.09 indicates that VLO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
VLO has a Quick ratio (1.09) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for VLO have decreased strongly by -33.42% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 8.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has decreased by -8.52% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.70% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.48% on average per year.
VLO is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -2.51% yearly.
EPS Next Y22.82%
EPS Next 2Y25.28%
EPS Next 3Y17.15%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue Next Year-6.76%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.95%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 22.07 indicates a rather expensive valuation of VLO.
VLO's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of VLO to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.77), we can say VLO is valued inline with the index average.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.64, the valuation of VLO can be described as correct.
VLO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VLO to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.35), we can say VLO is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.64 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as VLO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of VLO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: VLO is cheaper than 67.94% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.16 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
VLO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as VLO's earnings are expected to grow with 17.15% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.97
PEG (5Y)2.52
EPS Next 2Y25.28%
EPS Next 3Y17.15%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.75%, VLO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
VLO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.93.
VLO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.00.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.75% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VLO has a limited annual growth rate of 3.43%.
VLO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
VLO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
5.3 Sustainability
94.09% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VLO. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
VLO's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP94.09%
EPS Next 2Y25.28%
EPS Next 3Y17.15%
164.86
-0.8 (-0.48%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners85.06%
Inst Owner Change-4.17%
Ins Owners0.32%
Ins Owner Change-0.73%
Market Cap50.28B
Revenue(TTM)123.07B
Net Income(TTM)1.49B
Analysts77.6
Price Target189.64 (15.03%)
Short Float %4.08%
Short Ratio4.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.75% |
Yearly Dividend4.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
DP94.09%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)24.42%
Min EPS beat(2)18.81%
Max EPS beat(2)30.02%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)248.14%
Min EPS beat(4)18.81%
Max EPS beat(4)834.33%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)130.8%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)89.81%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)73.1%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)7.15%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.72%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.72%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.36%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.45%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)5.87%
PT rev (1m)1.87%
PT rev (3m)15.28%
EPS NQ rev (1m)3.61%
EPS NQ rev (3m)73.16%
EPS NY rev (1m)4.21%
EPS NY rev (3m)20.47%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.57%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.01%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.19%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.07 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.64 | ||
| P/S | 0.41 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.7 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.39 | ||
| P/B | 2.12 | ||
| P/tB | 2.12 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 9.16 |
EPS(TTM)7.47
EY4.53%
EPS(NY)13.04
Fwd EY7.91%
FCF(TTM)12.98
FCFY7.88%
OCF(TTM)15.87
OCFY9.62%
SpS403.5
BVpS77.88
TBVpS77.88
PEG (NY)0.97
PEG (5Y)2.52
Graham Number114.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.54% | ||
| ROE | 6.26% | ||
| ROCE | 7.03% | ||
| ROIC | 5.59% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.27% | ||
| OM | 2.51% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.21% | ||
| GM | 3.38% | ||
| FCFM | 3.22% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.98%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.17%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)23.41%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.52%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-0.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.91%
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover2.1
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.41 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.67 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.58 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 28.92% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.71% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.67 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 79.02% | ||
| Profit Quality | 266.13% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.6 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.09 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.45 |
F-Score5
WACC8.25%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)44.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)55.94%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.76%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.3%
Profit Quality(3y)132.8%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
EPS Next Y22.82%
EPS Next 2Y25.28%
EPS Next 3Y17.15%
EPS Next 5Y13.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-8.52%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
Revenue Next Year-6.76%
Revenue Next 2Y-7.38%
Revenue Next 3Y-2.95%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
EBIT growth 1Y-37.8%
EBIT growth 3Y20.8%
EBIT growth 5Y0.04%
EBIT Next Year101.95%
EBIT Next 3Y30.47%
EBIT Next 5Y19.46%
FCF growth 1Y-64.05%
FCF growth 3Y11.26%
FCF growth 5Y10.31%
OCF growth 1Y-59.96%
OCF growth 3Y4.48%
OCF growth 5Y3.86%
VALERO ENERGY CORP / VLO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VALERO ENERGY CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VLO.
What is the valuation status for VLO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of VLO stock?
VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.
What is the valuation of VALERO ENERGY CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is 22.07 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.12.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for VLO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is expected to grow by 22.82% in the next year.