VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:VLO - US91913Y1001 - Common Stock
171.05 USD
-2.08 (-1.2%)
171.4 USD
+0.35 (+0.2%)
VLO gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While VLO has a great health rating, there are worries on its profitability. VLO does not seem to be growing, but still is valued expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year VLO was profitable.
VLO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
VLO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
VLO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
VLO has a Return On Assets of 1.28%. This is in the lower half of the industry: VLO underperforms 61.14% of its industry peers.
VLO has a worse Return On Equity (3.15%) than 62.56% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 3.70%, VLO is not doing good in the industry: 63.51% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for VLO is below the industry average of 21.54%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (3.70%) for VLO is well below the 3 year average (18.62%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that VLO had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.28% | ||
| ROE | 3.15% | ||
| ROIC | 3.7% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 0.61%, VLO is not doing good in the industry: 64.45% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of VLO has remained more or less at the same level.
The Operating Margin of VLO (1.68%) is worse than 71.09% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of VLO has declined.
VLO has a worse Gross Margin (2.54%) than 76.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of VLO has declined.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 1.68% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.61% | ||
| GM | 2.54% |
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), VLO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for VLO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, VLO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, VLO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
VLO has an Altman-Z score of 4.39. This indicates that VLO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
VLO has a better Altman-Z score (4.39) than 87.68% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of VLO is 3.19, which is a good value as it means it would take VLO, 3.19 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a decent Debt to FCF ratio value of 3.19, VLO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.78% of the companies in the same industry.
VLO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.43. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
The Debt to Equity ratio of VLO (0.43) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.43 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.19 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.39 |
ROIC/WACC0.46
WACC8.09%
2.3 Liquidity
VLO has a Current Ratio of 1.62. This is a normal value and indicates that VLO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VLO's Current ratio of 1.62 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. VLO outperforms 70.62% of its industry peers.
VLO has a Quick Ratio of 1.11. This is a normal value and indicates that VLO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
VLO has a Quick ratio (1.11) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.11 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
VLO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -33.42%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 8.76% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
VLO shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -10.28%.
VLO shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 3.70% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.28%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 15.77% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, VLO will show a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue will decrease by -2.51% on average per year.
EPS Next Y4.48%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
EPS Next 5Y15.77%
Revenue Next Year-8.24%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.31%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 22.90, the valuation of VLO can be described as rather expensive.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as VLO.
VLO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.91.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 14.66 indicates a correct valuation of VLO.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of VLO is on the same level as its industry peers.
VLO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.92, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
60.66% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than VLO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
VLO's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.9 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.05 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates VLO does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
VLO's earnings are expected to grow with 13.82% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)5.11
PEG (5Y)2.61
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
VLO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.61%.
VLO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.30.
VLO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.34.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
5.2 History
The dividend of VLO has a limited annual growth rate of 3.43%.
VLO has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
VLO has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
5.3 Sustainability
183.27% of the earnings are spent on dividend by VLO. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of VLO is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP183.27%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
171.05
-2.08 (-1.2%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners86.61%
Inst Owner Change-0.98%
Ins Owners0.36%
Ins Owner Change0.34%
Market Cap53.14B
Revenue(TTM)129.88B
Net Income(TTM)759.00M
Analysts78.33
Price Target173.62 (1.5%)
Short Float %3.6%
Short Ratio4.15
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.61% |
Yearly Dividend4.27
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.43%
DP183.27%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years14
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)69.71%
Min EPS beat(2)30.02%
Max EPS beat(2)109.4%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)247.16%
Min EPS beat(4)14.9%
Max EPS beat(4)834.33%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)128.35%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)88.52%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)73.86%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)4.47%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.72%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.4%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.84%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.72%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.39%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.05%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)6.83%
PT rev (1m)5.54%
PT rev (3m)10.69%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.81%
EPS NQ rev (3m)10.71%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.54%
EPS NY rev (3m)23.53%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.97%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.53%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.47%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.08%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 22.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.66 | ||
| P/S | 0.43 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.9 | ||
| P/OCF | 12.49 | ||
| P/B | 2.21 | ||
| P/tB | 2.21 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.05 |
EPS(TTM)7.47
EY4.37%
EPS(NY)11.67
Fwd EY6.82%
FCF(TTM)10.75
FCFY6.29%
OCF(TTM)13.69
OCFY8%
SpS398.45
BVpS77.51
TBVpS77.51
PEG (NY)5.11
PEG (5Y)2.61
Graham Number114.14
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.28% | ||
| ROE | 3.15% | ||
| ROCE | 4.65% | ||
| ROIC | 3.7% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.12% | ||
| ROICexgc | 4.12% | ||
| OM | 1.68% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.61% | ||
| GM | 2.54% | ||
| FCFM | 2.7% |
ROA(3y)12.46%
ROA(5y)7.25%
ROE(3y)31.15%
ROE(5y)18.17%
ROIC(3y)18.62%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)20.98%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)21.17%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)23.41%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.52%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-0.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y17.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.91%
OM growth 3Y15.66%
OM growth 5Y-3.52%
PM growth 3Y37.91%
PM growth 5Y-0.94%
GM growth 3Y10.46%
GM growth 5Y-3.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover2.08
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.43 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.19 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.06 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 31.58% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.74% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.89 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 85.56% | ||
| Profit Quality | 440.18% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.62 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.11 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.39 |
F-Score5
WACC8.09%
ROIC/WACC0.46
Cap/Depr(3y)44.8%
Cap/Depr(5y)55.94%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.76%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.3%
Profit Quality(3y)132.8%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-33.42%
EPS 3Y50.45%
EPS 5Y8.76%
EPS Q2Q%221.05%
EPS Next Y4.48%
EPS Next 2Y18.48%
EPS Next 3Y13.82%
EPS Next 5Y15.77%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-10.28%
Revenue growth 3Y4.45%
Revenue growth 5Y3.7%
Sales Q2Q%-2.15%
Revenue Next Year-8.24%
Revenue Next 2Y-6.31%
Revenue Next 3Y-3.08%
Revenue Next 5Y-2.51%
EBIT growth 1Y-73.82%
EBIT growth 3Y20.8%
EBIT growth 5Y0.04%
EBIT Next Year79.86%
EBIT Next 3Y30.19%
EBIT Next 5Y20.34%
FCF growth 1Y-64.86%
FCF growth 3Y11.26%
FCF growth 5Y10.31%
OCF growth 1Y-60.7%
OCF growth 3Y4.48%
OCF growth 5Y3.86%
VALERO ENERGY CORP / VLO FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for VALERO ENERGY CORP?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to VLO.
What is the valuation status for VLO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 2 / 10 to VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO). This can be considered as Overvalued.
What is the profitability of VLO stock?
VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) has a profitability rating of 3 / 10.
What is the valuation of VALERO ENERGY CORP based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is 22.9 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.21.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for VLO stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of VALERO ENERGY CORP (VLO) is expected to grow by 4.48% in the next year.