TOLL BROTHERS INC (TOL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:TOL - US8894781033 - Common Stock
147.37 USD
+1.96 (+1.35%)
147.5 USD
+0.13 (+0.09%)
TOL gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 62 industry peers in the Household Durables industry. While TOL has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. TOL is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
TOL had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year TOL had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years TOL has been profitable.
TOL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 9.72%, TOL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 79.03% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 17.36%, TOL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.42% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of TOL (12.34%) is better than 75.81% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for TOL is above the industry average of 10.51%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.72% | ||
| ROE | 17.36% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% |
ROA(3y)11.06%
ROA(5y)8.89%
ROE(3y)20.7%
ROE(5y)17.4%
ROIC(3y)13.26%
ROIC(5y)10.59%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of TOL (12.95%) is better than 91.94% of its industry peers.
TOL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.72%, TOL belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.32% of the companies in the same industry.
TOL's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a Gross Margin value of 26.21%, TOL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 53.23% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of TOL has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.72% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.95% | ||
| GM | 26.21% |
OM growth 3Y17.51%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y15.15%
PM growth 5Y12.14%
GM growth 3Y8.08%
GM growth 5Y7.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), TOL is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for TOL has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for TOL has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for TOL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
TOL has an Altman-Z score of 4.11. This indicates that TOL is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With a decent Altman-Z score value of 4.11, TOL is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.35% of the companies in the same industry.
TOL has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.87. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as TOL would need 3.87 years to pay back of all of its debts.
TOL has a Debt to FCF ratio of 3.87. This is in the better half of the industry: TOL outperforms 66.13% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.35 indicates that TOL is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of TOL (0.35) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.87 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.11 |
ROIC/WACC1.43
WACC8.65%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 3.54 indicates that TOL has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
TOL's Current ratio of 3.54 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. TOL outperforms 67.74% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.29 indicates that TOL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
TOL has a worse Quick ratio (0.29) than 91.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.29 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 2.02% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 27.96% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.26% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing by 8.47% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)2.02%
EPS 3Y27.67%
EPS 5Y27.96%
EPS Q2Q%3.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.26%
Revenue growth 3Y7.26%
Revenue growth 5Y8.47%
Sales Q2Q%7.96%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 9.66% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
TOL is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 6.97% yearly.
EPS Next Y1.63%
EPS Next 2Y1.34%
EPS Next 3Y4.34%
EPS Next 5Y9.66%
Revenue Next Year2.18%
Revenue Next 2Y0.83%
Revenue Next 3Y2.53%
Revenue Next 5Y6.97%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
TOL is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.83.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of TOL indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: TOL is cheaper than 67.74% of the companies listed in the same industry.
TOL is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.06, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.35, the valuation of TOL can be described as very reasonable.
79.03% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than TOL, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.69, TOL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.35 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of TOL is on the same level as its industry peers.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, TOL is valued a bit cheaper than 67.74% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 19.67 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.76 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates TOL does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The excellent profitability rating of TOL may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)6.65
PEG (5Y)0.39
EPS Next 2Y1.34%
EPS Next 3Y4.34%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
TOL has a yearly dividend return of 0.69%, which is pretty low.
TOL's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 2.72.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.41, TOL's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of TOL grows each year by 15.67%, which is quite nice.
TOL has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
TOL has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.67%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years7
5.3 Sustainability
6.91% of the earnings are spent on dividend by TOL. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
TOL's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP6.91%
EPS Next 2Y1.34%
EPS Next 3Y4.34%
147.37
+1.96 (+1.35%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Durables & Apparel
GICS IndustryHousehold Durables
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.18%
Inst Owner Change-2.35%
Ins Owners0.69%
Ins Owner Change-3.59%
Market Cap14.23B
Analysts79.09
Price Target153.69 (4.29%)
Short Float %2.98%
Short Ratio1.67
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% |
Yearly Dividend0.92
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.67%
DP6.91%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years7
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.7%
Min EPS beat(2)-15.06%
Max EPS beat(2)22.46%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)5.19%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.06%
Max EPS beat(4)22.46%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)8.23%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)12.69%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)13.65%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.75%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.87%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.24%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.87%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)3.37%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.25%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.74%
PT rev (1m)7.62%
PT rev (3m)9.67%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.2%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.23%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.22%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.32%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.07%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.29%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.45%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.83 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.35 | ||
| P/S | 1.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 19.67 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.78 | ||
| P/B | 1.79 | ||
| P/tB | 1.79 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.76 |
EPS(TTM)13.61
EY9.24%
EPS(NY)14.24
Fwd EY9.66%
FCF(TTM)7.49
FCFY5.08%
OCF(TTM)8.29
OCFY5.62%
SpS110.41
BVpS82.33
TBVpS82.33
PEG (NY)6.65
PEG (5Y)0.39
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.72% | ||
| ROE | 17.36% | ||
| ROCE | 16.48% | ||
| ROIC | 12.34% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.18% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.32% | ||
| OM | 16.72% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.95% | ||
| GM | 26.21% | ||
| FCFM | 6.79% |
ROA(3y)11.06%
ROA(5y)8.89%
ROE(3y)20.7%
ROE(5y)17.4%
ROIC(3y)13.26%
ROIC(5y)10.59%
ROICexc(3y)15.3%
ROICexc(5y)12.36%
ROICexgc(3y)15.57%
ROICexgc(5y)12.57%
ROCE(3y)17.71%
ROCE(5y)14.14%
ROICexcg growth 3Y16.35%
ROICexcg growth 5Y20.45%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.42%
ROICexc growth 5Y20.38%
OM growth 3Y17.51%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y15.15%
PM growth 5Y12.14%
GM growth 3Y8.08%
GM growth 5Y7.34%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.87 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.5 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 91.65% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.72% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 42.87% | ||
| Profit Quality | 52.41% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.29 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.11 |
F-Score4
WACC8.65%
ROIC/WACC1.43
Cap/Depr(3y)93.15%
Cap/Depr(5y)105.24%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.7%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.88%
Profit Quality(3y)72.56%
Profit Quality(5y)113.39%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)2.02%
EPS 3Y27.67%
EPS 5Y27.96%
EPS Q2Q%3.61%
EPS Next Y1.63%
EPS Next 2Y1.34%
EPS Next 3Y4.34%
EPS Next 5Y9.66%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.26%
Revenue growth 3Y7.26%
Revenue growth 5Y8.47%
Sales Q2Q%7.96%
Revenue Next Year2.18%
Revenue Next 2Y0.83%
Revenue Next 3Y2.53%
Revenue Next 5Y6.97%
EBIT growth 1Y-11.15%
EBIT growth 3Y26.05%
EBIT growth 5Y24.59%
EBIT Next Year-1.8%
EBIT Next 3Y1.88%
EBIT Next 5Y6.6%
FCF growth 1Y-42.83%
FCF growth 3Y-8.84%
FCF growth 5Y21.71%
OCF growth 1Y-40.17%
OCF growth 3Y-8.14%
OCF growth 5Y18.21%