TOLL BROTHERS INC (TOL) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:TOL - US8894781033 - Common Stock
135.72 USD
+0.01 (+0.01%)
135.72 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to TOL. TOL was compared to 61 industry peers in the Household Durables industry. TOL has an excellent profitability rating, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. TOL is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
TOL had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year TOL had a positive cash flow from operations.
TOL had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years TOL always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
TOL has a Return On Assets of 9.55%. This is in the better half of the industry: TOL outperforms 78.69% of its industry peers.
TOL has a better Return On Equity (16.99%) than 75.41% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of TOL (11.94%) is better than 75.41% of its industry peers.
TOL had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 13.26%. This is above the industry average of 10.36%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.55% | ||
| ROE | 16.99% | ||
| ROIC | 11.94% |
ROA(3y)11.06%
ROA(5y)8.89%
ROE(3y)20.7%
ROE(5y)17.4%
ROIC(3y)13.26%
ROIC(5y)10.59%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of TOL (12.64%) is better than 91.80% of its industry peers.
TOL's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 16.27%, TOL belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.16% of the companies in the same industry.
TOL's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
TOL's Gross Margin of 25.65% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. TOL outperforms 50.82% of its industry peers.
TOL's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.27% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.64% | ||
| GM | 25.65% |
OM growth 3Y17.51%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y15.15%
PM growth 5Y12.14%
GM growth 3Y8.08%
GM growth 5Y7.34%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so TOL is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for TOL has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, TOL has less shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for TOL has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
TOL has an Altman-Z score of 4.03. This indicates that TOL is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
TOL's Altman-Z score of 4.03 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. TOL outperforms 63.93% of its industry peers.
TOL has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.20. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as TOL would need 3.20 years to pay back of all of its debts.
TOL has a better Debt to FCF ratio (3.20) than 65.57% of its industry peers.
TOL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.36, TOL perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 44.26% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.2 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.03 |
ROIC/WACC1.35
WACC8.82%
2.3 Liquidity
TOL has a Current Ratio of 3.72. This indicates that TOL is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
TOL's Current ratio of 3.72 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. TOL outperforms 65.57% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.35 indicates that TOL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
TOL's Quick ratio of 0.35 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. TOL is outperformed by 91.80% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.72 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
TOL shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 2.02%.
Measured over the past years, TOL shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 27.96% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.26% in the past year.
TOL shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 8.47% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)2.02%
EPS 3Y27.67%
EPS 5Y27.96%
EPS Q2Q%3.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.26%
Revenue growth 3Y7.26%
Revenue growth 5Y8.47%
Sales Q2Q%7.96%
3.2 Future
TOL is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 9.50% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, TOL will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.97% on average per year.
EPS Next Y0.46%
EPS Next 2Y0.76%
EPS Next 3Y3.79%
EPS Next 5Y9.5%
Revenue Next Year1.62%
Revenue Next 2Y0.53%
Revenue Next 3Y1.44%
Revenue Next 5Y6.97%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 9.97, the valuation of TOL can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, TOL is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.57% of the companies are valued more expensively.
TOL is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.69, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.64, which indicates a very decent valuation of TOL.
TOL's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. TOL is cheaper than 70.49% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of TOL to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.18), we can say TOL is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.64 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as TOL.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, TOL is valued a bit cheaper than 70.49% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 14.24 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.17 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates TOL does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
The excellent profitability rating of TOL may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)21.45
PEG (5Y)0.36
EPS Next 2Y0.76%
EPS Next 3Y3.79%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.74%, TOL is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.06, TOL pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, TOL's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of TOL grows each year by 15.67%, which is quite nice.
TOL has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
As TOL did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.67%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years7
5.3 Sustainability
TOL pays out 7.01% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
TOL's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP7.01%
EPS Next 2Y0.76%
EPS Next 3Y3.79%
135.72
+0.01 (+0.01%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Durables & Apparel
GICS IndustryHousehold Durables
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners93.35%
Inst Owner Change-0.04%
Ins Owners0.64%
Ins Owner Change-4.54%
Market Cap13.08B
Analysts79.09
Price Target154.03 (13.49%)
Short Float %3.16%
Short Ratio1.88
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% |
Yearly Dividend0.92
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.67%
DP7.01%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years7
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)12.47%
Min EPS beat(2)2.49%
Max EPS beat(2)22.46%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.92%
Min EPS beat(4)-15.06%
Max EPS beat(4)22.46%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)4.81%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)12.79%
EPS beat(16)14
Avg EPS beat(16)12.54%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)5.14%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.4%
Max Revenue beat(2)7.87%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.94%
Min Revenue beat(4)-4.38%
Max Revenue beat(4)7.87%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.39%
Revenue beat(12)10
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.54%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.9%
PT rev (1m)0.22%
PT rev (3m)7.86%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.15%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.36%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.01%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.93%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.97 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.64 | ||
| P/S | 1.2 | ||
| P/FCF | 14.24 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.15 | ||
| P/B | 1.62 | ||
| P/tB | 1.62 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.17 |
EPS(TTM)13.61
EY10.03%
EPS(NY)14.07
Fwd EY10.37%
FCF(TTM)9.53
FCFY7.02%
OCF(TTM)10.32
OCFY7.61%
SpS112.85
BVpS84
TBVpS84
PEG (NY)21.45
PEG (5Y)0.36
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.55% | ||
| ROE | 16.99% | ||
| ROCE | 15.94% | ||
| ROIC | 11.94% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.93% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.06% | ||
| OM | 16.27% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 12.64% | ||
| GM | 25.65% | ||
| FCFM | 8.44% |
ROA(3y)11.06%
ROA(5y)8.89%
ROE(3y)20.7%
ROE(5y)17.4%
ROIC(3y)13.26%
ROIC(5y)10.59%
ROICexc(3y)15.3%
ROICexc(5y)12.36%
ROICexgc(3y)15.57%
ROICexgc(5y)12.57%
ROCE(3y)17.71%
ROCE(5y)14.14%
ROICexcg growth 3Y16.35%
ROICexcg growth 5Y20.45%
ROICexc growth 3Y16.42%
ROICexc growth 5Y20.38%
OM growth 3Y17.51%
OM growth 5Y14.86%
PM growth 3Y15.15%
PM growth 5Y12.14%
GM growth 3Y8.08%
GM growth 5Y7.34%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.76
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.2 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.59 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 88.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 53.6% | ||
| Profit Quality | 66.78% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.72 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.35 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.03 |
F-Score4
WACC8.82%
ROIC/WACC1.35
Cap/Depr(3y)93.15%
Cap/Depr(5y)105.24%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.7%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.88%
Profit Quality(3y)72.56%
Profit Quality(5y)113.39%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)2.02%
EPS 3Y27.67%
EPS 5Y27.96%
EPS Q2Q%3.61%
EPS Next Y0.46%
EPS Next 2Y0.76%
EPS Next 3Y3.79%
EPS Next 5Y9.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.26%
Revenue growth 3Y7.26%
Revenue growth 5Y8.47%
Sales Q2Q%7.96%
Revenue Next Year1.62%
Revenue Next 2Y0.53%
Revenue Next 3Y1.44%
Revenue Next 5Y6.97%
EBIT growth 1Y-11.15%
EBIT growth 3Y26.05%
EBIT growth 5Y24.59%
EBIT Next Year-2.58%
EBIT Next 3Y0.4%
EBIT Next 5Y6.5%
FCF growth 1Y-50.07%
FCF growth 3Y-8.84%
FCF growth 5Y21.71%
OCF growth 1Y-47.87%
OCF growth 3Y-8.14%
OCF growth 5Y18.21%