ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:LLY - US5324571083 - Common Stock
993.64 USD
+11.42 (+1.16%)
994.66 USD
+1.02 (+0.1%)
Taking everything into account, LLY scores 7 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. LLY was compared to 191 industry peers in the Pharmaceuticals industry. While LLY belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. LLY is showing excellent growth while it is valued at reasonable prices. Keep and eye on this one! Finally LLY also has an excellent dividend rating. This makes LLY very considerable for dividend and growth investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
LLY had positive earnings in the past year.
LLY had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
LLY had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years LLY had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
LLY has a Return On Assets of 16.02%. This is amongst the best in the industry. LLY outperforms 95.81% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of LLY (77.38%) is better than 99.48% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of LLY (28.84%) is better than 97.91% of its industry peers.
LLY had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 21.71%. This is significantly above the industry average of 12.85%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (28.84%) for LLY is above the 3 year average (21.71%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.02% | ||
| ROE | 77.38% | ||
| ROIC | 28.84% |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
1.3 Margins
With an excellent Profit Margin value of 30.99%, LLY belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.76% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
LLY's Operating Margin of 44.41% is amongst the best of the industry. LLY outperforms 98.43% of its industry peers.
LLY's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 83.03%, LLY belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.91% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of LLY has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 44.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 30.99% | ||
| GM | 83.03% |
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
LLY has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, LLY has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The number of shares outstanding for LLY has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, LLY has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
LLY has an Altman-Z score of 7.89. This indicates that LLY is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 7.89, LLY belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.10% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.60. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as LLY would need 6.60 years to pay back of all of its debts.
LLY's Debt to FCF ratio of 6.60 is amongst the best of the industry. LLY outperforms 80.10% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72 is on the high side and indicates that LLY has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.72, LLY is not doing good in the industry: 77.49% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 7.89 |
ROIC/WACC3.16
WACC9.12%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.55 indicates that LLY should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of LLY (1.55) is worse than 70.16% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.24 indicates that LLY should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.24, LLY is not doing good in the industry: 70.68% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
LLY shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 116.22%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, LLY shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 16.57% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, LLY shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 45.41%.
LLY shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.08% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)116.22%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%494.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.41%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.87%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, LLY will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 31.53% on average per year.
LLY is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 18.88% yearly.
EPS Next Y84.93%
EPS Next 2Y58.19%
EPS Next 3Y45.43%
EPS Next 5Y31.53%
Revenue Next Year41.01%
Revenue Next 2Y29.88%
Revenue Next 3Y25.23%
Revenue Next 5Y18.88%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 45.19, the valuation of LLY can be described as expensive.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than 77.49% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of LLY to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.59), we can say LLY is valued expensively.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 30.54, which means the current valuation is very expensive for LLY.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than 71.73% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of LLY to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.80), we can say LLY is valued slightly more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 45.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 30.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
78.01% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LLY, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 73.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 145.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 33.97 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
LLY's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of LLY may justify a higher PE ratio.
LLY's earnings are expected to grow with 45.43% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.53
PEG (5Y)2.73
EPS Next 2Y58.19%
EPS Next 3Y45.43%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
LLY has a yearly dividend return of 0.59%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.46, LLY pays a better dividend. On top of this LLY pays more dividend than 89.53% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.31, LLY's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.59% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of LLY grows each year by 15.59%, which is quite nice.
LLY has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
LLY has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.59%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
LLY pays out 28.28% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of LLY is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP28.28%
EPS Next 2Y58.19%
EPS Next 3Y45.43%
993.64
+11.42 (+1.16%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorHealth Care
GICS IndustryGroupPharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
GICS IndustryPharmaceuticals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.08%
Inst Owner Change-0.91%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change-4.01%
Market Cap939.37B
Revenue(TTM)59.42B
Net Income(TTM)18.41B
Analysts80.54
Price Target1068.35 (7.52%)
Short Float %0.77%
Short Ratio1.86
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.59% |
Yearly Dividend4.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.59%
DP28.28%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)18.28%
Min EPS beat(2)14.51%
Max EPS beat(2)22.05%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)13.1%
Min EPS beat(4)6.45%
Max EPS beat(4)22.05%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)12.06%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)23.73%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)17.41%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.77%
Min Revenue beat(2)4.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)8.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.24%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.81%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.39%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.64%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.04%
PT rev (1m)15.27%
PT rev (3m)17.48%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.23%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.79%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.22%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.57%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.49%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.63%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.69%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.01%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 45.19 | ||
| Fwd PE | 30.54 | ||
| P/S | 15.81 | ||
| P/FCF | 145.95 | ||
| P/OCF | 58.48 | ||
| P/B | 39.48 | ||
| P/tB | 82.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 33.97 |
EPS(TTM)21.99
EY2.21%
EPS(NY)32.53
Fwd EY3.27%
FCF(TTM)6.81
FCFY0.69%
OCF(TTM)16.99
OCFY1.71%
SpS62.85
BVpS25.17
TBVpS12.11
PEG (NY)0.53
PEG (5Y)2.73
Graham Number111.59
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.02% | ||
| ROE | 77.38% | ||
| ROCE | 35.28% | ||
| ROIC | 28.84% | ||
| ROICexc | 33.25% | ||
| ROICexgc | 41.06% | ||
| OM | 44.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 30.99% | ||
| GM | 83.03% | ||
| FCFM | 10.83% |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
ROICexc(3y)23.23%
ROICexc(5y)21.74%
ROICexgc(3y)32.89%
ROICexgc(5y)32.31%
ROCE(3y)29.19%
ROCE(5y)26%
ROICexgc growth 3Y1.59%
ROICexgc growth 5Y4.02%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.82%
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.52
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.6 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.44 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 507.66% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.2% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 56.78% | ||
| Profit Quality | 34.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 | ||
| Altman-Z | 7.89 |
F-Score7
WACC9.12%
ROIC/WACC3.16
Cap/Depr(3y)385.26%
Cap/Depr(5y)286.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)16.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)13.13%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)116.22%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%494.92%
EPS Next Y84.93%
EPS Next 2Y58.19%
EPS Next 3Y45.43%
EPS Next 5Y31.53%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.41%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.87%
Revenue Next Year41.01%
Revenue Next 2Y29.88%
Revenue Next 3Y25.23%
Revenue Next 5Y18.88%
EBIT growth 1Y82.81%
EBIT growth 3Y31.18%
EBIT growth 5Y24.1%
EBIT Next Year101.24%
EBIT Next 3Y46.41%
EBIT Next 5Y32.15%
FCF growth 1Y4003.21%
FCF growth 3Y-57.48%
FCF growth 5Y-34.68%
OCF growth 1Y158.46%
OCF growth 3Y6.69%
OCF growth 5Y12.76%
ELI LILLY & CO / LLY FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for LLY stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to LLY.
What is the valuation status for LLY stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ELI LILLY & CO (LLY). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of LLY stock?
ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.
What is the financial health of ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) stock?
The financial health rating of ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) is 5 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) is expected to grow by 84.93% in the next year.