ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:LLY - US5324571083 - Common Stock
802.83 USD
-16.55 (-2.02%)
802.111 USD
-0.72 (-0.09%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to LLY. LLY was compared to 195 industry peers in the Pharmaceuticals industry. While LLY belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. LLY is not overvalued while it is showing excellent growth. This is an interesting combination. LLY also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year LLY was profitable.
LLY had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
LLY had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years LLY always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
LLY's Return On Assets of 13.67% is amongst the best of the industry. LLY outperforms 94.87% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of LLY (75.52%) is better than 98.97% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 29.63%, LLY belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.95% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 21.71%. This is significantly above the industry average of 15.30%.
The 3 year average ROIC (21.71%) for LLY is below the current ROIC(29.63%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 13.67% | ||
| ROE | 75.52% | ||
| ROIC | 29.63% |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
1.3 Margins
LLY has a Profit Margin of 25.91%. This is amongst the best in the industry. LLY outperforms 96.41% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of LLY has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 42.13%, LLY belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 97.95% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of LLY has grown nicely.
LLY has a better Gross Margin (82.64%) than 86.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of LLY has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 42.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 25.91% | ||
| GM | 82.64% |
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so LLY is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, LLY has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The number of shares outstanding for LLY has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, LLY has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 7.26 indicates that LLY is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
LLY has a better Altman-Z score (7.26) than 82.56% of its industry peers.
LLY has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.87. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.87, LLY is doing worse than 77.95% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.87 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 7.26 |
ROIC/WACC3.51
WACC8.43%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.28 indicates that LLY should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.28, LLY is doing worse than 74.36% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY has a Quick Ratio of 1.28. This is a bad value and indicates that LLY is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
LLY has a worse Quick ratio (1.00) than 73.85% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.28 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
LLY shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 77.67%, which is quite impressive.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 16.57% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
The Revenue has grown by 36.83% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
Measured over the past years, LLY shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)77.67%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%60.97%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)36.83%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%37.64%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 30.19% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, LLY will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 17.70% on average per year.
EPS Next Y76.53%
EPS Next 2Y52.79%
EPS Next 3Y41.48%
EPS Next 5Y30.19%
Revenue Next Year36.8%
Revenue Next 2Y27.26%
Revenue Next 3Y23.11%
Revenue Next 5Y17.7%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 49.71, the valuation of LLY can be described as expensive.
LLY's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. LLY is cheaper than 78.46% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.40. LLY is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 26.45, which means the current valuation is very expensive for LLY.
71.79% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LLY, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
LLY's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 22.94.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 49.71 | ||
| Fwd PE | 26.45 |
4.2 Price Multiples
79.49% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than LLY, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 33.36 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of LLY may justify a higher PE ratio.
LLY's earnings are expected to grow with 41.48% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.65
PEG (5Y)3
EPS Next 2Y52.79%
EPS Next 3Y41.48%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.70%, LLY is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
LLY's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 6.60. LLY pays more dividend than 89.23% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Dividend Yield of 0.70, LLY pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of LLY grows each year by 15.60%, which is quite nice.
LLY has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
LLY has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.6%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
LLY pays out 36.46% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
LLY's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP36.46%
EPS Next 2Y52.79%
EPS Next 3Y41.48%
802.83
-16.55 (-2.02%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorHealth Care
GICS IndustryGroupPharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
GICS IndustryPharmaceuticals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.75%
Inst Owner Change-0.17%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change-1.52%
Market Cap759.85B
Analysts80
Price Target904.29 (12.64%)
Short Float %0.78%
Short Ratio1.52
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
Yearly Dividend4.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.6%
DP36.46%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.94%
Min EPS beat(2)9.38%
Max EPS beat(2)14.51%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)2.5%
Min EPS beat(4)-20.34%
Max EPS beat(4)14.51%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)31.01%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)22.08%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)15.86%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.11%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.5%
Max Revenue beat(2)4.72%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.87%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.46%
Max Revenue beat(4)4.72%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.92%
Revenue beat(12)6
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.89%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.54%
PT rev (1m)-0.56%
PT rev (3m)-8.39%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.18%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.04%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)4.07%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)3.47%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 49.71 | ||
| Fwd PE | 26.45 | ||
| P/S | 14.27 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 69.47 | ||
| P/B | 41.58 | ||
| P/tB | 115.23 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 33.36 |
EPS(TTM)16.15
EY2.01%
EPS(NY)30.35
Fwd EY3.78%
FCF(TTM)-0.05
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.56
OCFY1.44%
SpS56.27
BVpS19.31
TBVpS6.97
PEG (NY)0.65
PEG (5Y)3
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 13.67% | ||
| ROE | 75.52% | ||
| ROCE | 36.25% | ||
| ROIC | 29.63% | ||
| ROICexc | 31.43% | ||
| ROICexgc | 39.29% | ||
| OM | 42.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 25.91% | ||
| GM | 82.64% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
ROICexc(3y)23.23%
ROICexc(5y)21.74%
ROICexgc(3y)32.89%
ROICexgc(5y)32.31%
ROCE(3y)29.19%
ROCE(5y)26%
ROICexcg growth 3Y1.59%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.02%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.81%
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.53
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.87 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.4 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 580.51% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 20.63% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 44.95% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.28 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 7.26 |
F-Score6
WACC8.43%
ROIC/WACC3.51
Cap/Depr(3y)374.28%
Cap/Depr(5y)279.43%
Cap/Sales(3y)16.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)12.78%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)77.67%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%60.97%
EPS Next Y76.53%
EPS Next 2Y52.79%
EPS Next 3Y41.48%
EPS Next 5Y30.19%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)36.83%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%37.64%
Revenue Next Year36.8%
Revenue Next 2Y27.26%
Revenue Next 3Y23.11%
Revenue Next 5Y17.7%
EBIT growth 1Y67.12%
EBIT growth 3Y31.18%
EBIT growth 5Y24.1%
EBIT Next Year93.86%
EBIT Next 3Y42.49%
EBIT Next 5Y29.64%
FCF growth 1Y-101.56%
FCF growth 3Y-57.48%
FCF growth 5Y-34.68%
OCF growth 1Y75.24%
OCF growth 3Y6.69%
OCF growth 5Y12.76%