ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:LLY - US5324571083 - Common Stock
1025.28 USD
+2.41 (+0.24%)
1024.88 USD
-0.4 (-0.04%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to LLY. LLY was compared to 192 industry peers in the Pharmaceuticals industry. While LLY belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. LLY is not overvalued while it is showing excellent growth. This is an interesting combination. Finally LLY also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings could make LLY a good candidate for dividend and growth investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
LLY had positive earnings in the past year.
LLY had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
LLY had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years LLY always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of LLY (16.02%) is better than 96.35% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of LLY (77.38%) is better than 98.96% of its industry peers.
LLY has a better Return On Invested Capital (28.84%) than 97.92% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for LLY is significantly above the industry average of 15.35%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (28.84%) for LLY is above the 3 year average (21.71%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.02% | ||
| ROE | 77.38% | ||
| ROIC | 28.84% |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
1.3 Margins
LLY has a better Profit Margin (30.99%) than 95.31% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of LLY has declined.
The Operating Margin of LLY (44.41%) is better than 98.96% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of LLY has grown nicely.
LLY has a better Gross Margin (83.03%) than 87.50% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of LLY has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 44.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 30.99% | ||
| GM | 83.03% |
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
LLY has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
LLY has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
LLY has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for LLY is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
LLY has an Altman-Z score of 8.16. This indicates that LLY is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
LLY has a Altman-Z score of 8.16. This is amongst the best in the industry. LLY outperforms 83.33% of its industry peers.
LLY has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.60. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as LLY would need 6.60 years to pay back of all of its debts.
LLY has a Debt to FCF ratio of 6.60. This is in the better half of the industry: LLY outperforms 79.69% of its industry peers.
LLY has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.72. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.72, LLY is not doing good in the industry: 78.65% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 8.16 |
ROIC/WACC3.28
WACC8.78%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.55 indicates that LLY should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.55, LLY is doing worse than 69.79% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY has a Quick Ratio of 1.24. This is a normal value and indicates that LLY is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of LLY (1.24) is worse than 70.83% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 116.22% over the past year.
LLY shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 16.57% yearly.
Looking at the last year, LLY shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 45.41%.
Measured over the past years, LLY shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.08% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)116.22%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%494.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.41%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.87%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 30.75% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, LLY will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 18.43% on average per year.
EPS Next Y80.9%
EPS Next 2Y54.64%
EPS Next 3Y42.29%
EPS Next 5Y30.75%
Revenue Next Year38.67%
Revenue Next 2Y28.28%
Revenue Next 3Y23.95%
Revenue Next 5Y18.43%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
LLY is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 46.62.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than 77.60% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather expensive valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.89.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 32.98, the valuation of LLY can be described as expensive.
LLY's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. LLY is cheaper than 72.40% of the companies in the same industry.
LLY is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.59, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.98 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 78.13% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, LLY is valued a bit cheaper than 73.96% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 150.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 35.45 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of LLY may justify a higher PE ratio.
LLY's earnings are expected to grow with 42.29% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.58
PEG (5Y)2.81
EPS Next 2Y54.64%
EPS Next 3Y42.29%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a yearly dividend of 0.59%, LLY is not a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 7.07, LLY pays a better dividend. On top of this LLY pays more dividend than 89.58% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, LLY's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.59% |
5.2 History
The dividend of LLY is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 15.59%!
LLY has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
LLY has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.59%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
5.3 Sustainability
28.28% of the earnings are spent on dividend by LLY. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of LLY is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP28.28%
EPS Next 2Y54.64%
EPS Next 3Y42.29%
1025.28
+2.41 (+0.24%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorHealth Care
GICS IndustryGroupPharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
GICS IndustryPharmaceuticals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.75%
Inst Owner Change-0.78%
Ins Owners0.16%
Ins Owner Change-2.36%
Market Cap970.39B
Revenue(TTM)59.42B
Net Income(TTM)18.41B
Analysts80
Price Target926.82 (-9.6%)
Short Float %0.72%
Short Ratio1.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.59% |
Yearly Dividend4.93
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.59%
DP28.28%
Div Incr Years10
Div Non Decr Years34
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)18.28%
Min EPS beat(2)14.51%
Max EPS beat(2)22.05%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)13.1%
Min EPS beat(4)6.45%
Max EPS beat(4)22.05%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)12.06%
EPS beat(12)10
Avg EPS beat(12)23.73%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)17.41%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)6.77%
Min Revenue beat(2)4.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)8.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.24%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.81%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.39%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.64%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.04%
PT rev (1m)2.49%
PT rev (3m)-6.21%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.11%
EPS NQ rev (3m)2.55%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.48%
EPS NY rev (3m)7.64%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.94%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)2.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.37%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.24%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 32.98 | ||
| P/S | 16.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 150.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 60.41 | ||
| P/B | 40.78 | ||
| P/tB | 84.76 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 35.45 |
EPS(TTM)21.99
EY2.14%
EPS(NY)31.09
Fwd EY3.03%
FCF(TTM)6.8
FCFY0.66%
OCF(TTM)16.97
OCFY1.66%
SpS62.78
BVpS25.14
TBVpS12.1
PEG (NY)0.58
PEG (5Y)2.81
Graham Number111.53
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.02% | ||
| ROE | 77.38% | ||
| ROCE | 35.28% | ||
| ROIC | 28.84% | ||
| ROICexc | 33.25% | ||
| ROICexgc | 41.06% | ||
| OM | 44.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 30.99% | ||
| GM | 83.03% | ||
| FCFM | 10.83% |
ROA(3y)11.42%
ROA(5y)11.8%
ROE(3y)60.64%
ROE(5y)70.77%
ROIC(3y)21.71%
ROIC(5y)19.96%
ROICexc(3y)23.23%
ROICexc(5y)21.74%
ROICexgc(3y)32.89%
ROICexgc(5y)32.31%
ROCE(3y)29.19%
ROCE(5y)26%
ROICexgc growth 3Y1.59%
ROICexgc growth 5Y4.02%
ROICexc growth 3Y9.55%
ROICexc growth 5Y8.82%
OM growth 3Y12.38%
OM growth 5Y7.84%
PM growth 3Y6.05%
PM growth 5Y-8.8%
GM growth 3Y3.11%
GM growth 5Y0.62%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.52
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.72 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.6 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.44 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 507.66% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 16.2% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 56.78% | ||
| Profit Quality | 34.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.24 | ||
| Altman-Z | 8.16 |
F-Score7
WACC8.78%
ROIC/WACC3.28
Cap/Depr(3y)385.26%
Cap/Depr(5y)286.02%
Cap/Sales(3y)16.93%
Cap/Sales(5y)13.13%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)116.22%
EPS 3Y16.75%
EPS 5Y16.57%
EPS Q2Q%494.92%
EPS Next Y80.9%
EPS Next 2Y54.64%
EPS Next 3Y42.29%
EPS Next 5Y30.75%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)45.41%
Revenue growth 3Y16.73%
Revenue growth 5Y15.08%
Sales Q2Q%53.87%
Revenue Next Year38.67%
Revenue Next 2Y28.28%
Revenue Next 3Y23.95%
Revenue Next 5Y18.43%
EBIT growth 1Y82.81%
EBIT growth 3Y31.18%
EBIT growth 5Y24.1%
EBIT Next Year93.86%
EBIT Next 3Y42.49%
EBIT Next 5Y30.03%
FCF growth 1Y4003.21%
FCF growth 3Y-57.48%
FCF growth 5Y-34.68%
OCF growth 1Y158.46%
OCF growth 3Y6.69%
OCF growth 5Y12.76%
ELI LILLY & CO / LLY FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for LLY stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to LLY.
What is the valuation status for LLY stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to ELI LILLY & CO (LLY). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of LLY stock?
ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.
What is the financial health of ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) stock?
The financial health rating of ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) is 5 / 10.
What is the expected EPS growth for ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of ELI LILLY & CO (LLY) is expected to grow by 80.9% in the next year.