Nvidia’s $100B Bet in OpenAI Pushes Wall Street to Fresh Records

If you felt déjà vu, you’re not alone.

Monday served up another record close for the major U.S. indexes, powered (again) by AI headlines and iPhone optimism.

Nvidia’s splashy tie-up with OpenAI owned the news cycle; Apple’s demand story did the rest. Meanwhile, gold sprinted to fresh highs as crude limped lower.

The macro soundtrack? The Fed cut rates last week. but policymakers are now harmonizing in different keys.

Market Snapshot: Records on Repeat

The Nasdaq added 0.7%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Dow inched up 0.1%, marking another hat-trick of all-time highs to start the week. Nvidia’s move and Apple’s rally were the clear catalysts.

Gold notched a new record (trading in the $3,700–$3,750 zone) while silver flirted with $44, its highest in 14 years, yes, the metals crowd is having a moment. Oil went the other way: WTI slipped roughly 0.6% amid supply overhangs and pipeline restart chatter.

Big Tech, Bigger Checks

Nvidia (NVDA | +3.93%) — The chip giant unveiled a letter of intent to deploy at least 10 GW of systems for OpenAI and intends to invest up to $100B over time as capacity comes online. First 1 GW is slated for 2H 2026. That’s not just chips; that’s industrial policy for AI.

Apple (AAPL | +4.31%) — iPhone 17 demand looks sturdier than expected, with longer lead times than last year’s cycle and bullish channel checks helping the mood.

Micron (MU | +1.16%) — Into Tuesday’s post-close earnings, expectations are… not low.

Street models call for ~44% y/y revenue growth and a >140% EPS pop. After a ~+90% YTD run, execution risk is real: “great” may need to be “immaculate.”

Oracle’s Shuffle, Cloud Deals & TikTok Rumor Mill

Oracle (ORCL | +6.31%) jumped after naming Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia co-CEOs, with Safra Catz becoming executive vice chair.

The shake-up lands as Oracle reportedly courts Meta (META | −1.70%) for a ~$20B AI cloud deal and remains central to the evolving TikTok saga.

Fox Corp. (FOX | +2.69%) also rode TikTok chatter after comments that the Murdochs could join an investor group supporting a U.S. deal.

EV Corner: BYD Exit and a Nudge for Tesla

Tesla (TSLA | +1.91%) firmed to $434.21 as the market digested reports that Berkshire Hathaway fully exited BYD, a long-held, multi-bagger bet. BYD fell in Hong Kong; U.S.-listed proxies slipped too.

Pharma: Pfizer Buys Speed in the Weight-Loss Race

Pfizer (PFE | +0.01%) agreed to acquire Metsera for $4.9B, re-upping in the GLP-1 battle versus Eli Lilly (LLY | +0.39%) and Novo Nordisk (NVO | −1.12%).

Kenvue (KVUE | −7.47%) slumped after reports that U.S. officials could link Tylenol’s active ingredient to autism, allegations the company rejects.

Macro: One Cut, Many Opinions

Last week’s 25 bp Fed cut (to a 4.00%–4.25% target range) came with a dissent for 50 bp from new Governor Stephen Miran, who doubled down Monday, arguing policy should be ~2 percentage points lower than today.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved in August but remained negative (−0.18).

Core PCE lands Friday, the week’s main event.

Commodities & FX: Shiny Things Up, Slick Things Down

• Gold kept ripping - records near $3,750 - while silver hovered around $44.

• Dollar drifted lower; EUR/USD held firmer.

• WTI eased as supply headlines outweighed geopolitics. (Translation: it’s still a soft tape for energy equities.)

What I’m Watching Next

• Micron earnings for any AI-memory capacity tells, HBM ramp, and pricing discipline.

• Oracle execution under co-CEOs and whether the Meta cloud chatter congeals into a signed deal.

• Gold vs. real yields: records without panic - yet.

• Fed speak into Friday’s PCE; how far the market dares to front-run additional cuts.

Final Take

When a single headline can move capex plans by eleven figures, we’re in a market where compute is king and power is the new land.

Positioning matters: lean into earnings quality and cash flows that can fund the hardware arms race and keep one eye on metals, just in case the “shiny hedge” keeps stealing the show.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

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