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POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

12.29  +0.37 (+3.1%)

Fundamental Rating

4

We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to PBPB. PBPB was compared to 131 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of PBPB get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. PBPB is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

PBPB had positive earnings in the past year.
PBPB had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative net income in multiple years.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
PBPB Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFPBPB Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20M -20M 40M -40M -60M

1.2 Ratios

PBPB's Return On Assets of 16.18% is amongst the best of the industry. PBPB outperforms 93.89% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Return On Equity of 73.04%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 97.71% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.32%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: PBPB outperforms 57.25% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for PBPB is significantly below the industry average of 15.87%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.13%) for PBPB is below the current ROIC(6.32%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.18%
ROE 73.04%
ROIC 6.32%
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
PBPB Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICPBPB Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500 -500 1K -1K

1.3 Margins

With a decent Profit Margin value of 9.24%, PBPB is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.99% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Operating Margin value of 3.12%, PBPB is not doing good in the industry: 69.47% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
PBPB has a better Gross Margin (74.37%) than 90.84% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PBPB has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.12%
PM (TTM) 9.24%
GM 74.37%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
PBPB Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsPBPB Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 60

4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

PBPB has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
PBPB has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
PBPB Yearly Shares OutstandingPBPB Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M
PBPB Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsPBPB Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M

2.2 Solvency

PBPB has an Altman-Z score of 1.29. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.29, PBPB is doing worse than 60.31% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PBPB is 0.62, which is an excellent value as it means it would take PBPB, only 0.62 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
PBPB has a Debt to FCF ratio of 0.62. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 90.84% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.08 indicates that PBPB is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.08, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.21% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.08
Debt/FCF 0.62
Altman-Z 1.29
ROIC/WACC0.66
WACC9.53%
PBPB Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFPBPB Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M

2.3 Liquidity

PBPB has a Current Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
PBPB has a Current ratio of 0.53. This is in the lower half of the industry: PBPB underperforms 74.05% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Quick Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Quick ratio (0.48) than 71.76% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.53
Quick Ratio 0.48
PBPB Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesPBPB Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 107.14% over the past year.
Looking at the last year, PBPB shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -3.96% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.46% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 10.63% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.61% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
PBPB Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesPBPB Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M
PBPB Yearly EPS VS EstimatesPBPB Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5

2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 42.38, PBPB can be considered very expensive at the moment.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as PBPB.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.91, PBPB is valued quite expensively.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 33.47 indicates a quite expensive valuation of PBPB.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as PBPB.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 37.11.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 42.38
Fwd PE 33.47
PBPB Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsPBPB Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
PBPB's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 50.9
EV/EBITDA 12.53
PBPB Per share dataPBPB EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

PBPB does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

POTBELLY CORP

NASDAQ:PBPB (7/30/2025, 11:53:29 AM)

12.29

+0.37 (+3.1%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)05-07 2025-05-07/amc
Earnings (Next)08-06 2025-08-06
Inst Owners79.05%
Inst Owner Change0.37%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change8.09%
Market Cap370.79M
Analysts80
Price Target17.34 (41.09%)
Short Float %4.74%
Short Ratio5.52
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)98.04%
Min EPS beat(2)96.08%
Max EPS beat(2)100%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)77.84%
Min EPS beat(4)30.72%
Max EPS beat(4)100%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.75%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.45%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.5%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.55%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.27%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.41%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 42.38
Fwd PE 33.47
P/S 0.8
P/FCF 50.9
P/OCF 13.43
P/B 6.3
P/tB 6.94
EV/EBITDA 12.53
EPS(TTM)0.29
EY2.36%
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY2.99%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.96%
OCF(TTM)0.91
OCFY7.44%
SpS15.42
BVpS1.95
TBVpS1.77
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.18%
ROE 73.04%
ROCE 7.35%
ROIC 6.32%
ROICexc 6.83%
ROICexgc 7.04%
OM 3.12%
PM (TTM) 9.24%
GM 74.37%
FCFM 1.57%
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.69%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.85%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.75
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.08
Debt/FCF 0.62
Debt/EBITDA 0.16
Cap/Depr 151.84%
Cap/Sales 4.37%
Interest Coverage 30.11
Cash Conversion 98.96%
Profit Quality 16.94%
Current Ratio 0.53
Quick Ratio 0.48
Altman-Z 1.29
F-Score7
WACC9.53%
ROIC/WACC0.66
Cap/Depr(3y)121.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)47.56%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y39.81%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year171.84%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-20.82%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-36.94%
OCF growth 1Y41.1%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.59%