POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, PBPB scores 3 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PBPB was compared to 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. While PBPB is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. PBPB is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PBPB was profitable.
PBPB had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative net income in multiple years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 15.31%, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 92.59% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB's Return On Equity of 69.01% is amongst the best of the industry. PBPB outperforms 97.04% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 6.60%, PBPB perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PBPB is significantly below the industry average of 14.34%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.13%) for PBPB is below the current ROIC(6.60%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 15.31% | ||
| ROE | 69.01% | ||
| ROIC | 6.6% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 8.71%, PBPB is doing good in the industry, outperforming 71.11% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a worse Operating Margin (3.28%) than 68.89% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 74.05%, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.11% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PBPB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.71% | ||
| GM | 74.05% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so PBPB is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, PBPB has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
PBPB has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
PBPB has an Altman-Z score of 1.16. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
PBPB has a worse Altman-Z score (1.16) than 61.48% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a debt to FCF ratio of 10.55. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as PBPB would need 10.55 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PBPB's Debt to FCF ratio of 10.55 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. PBPB outperforms 59.26% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.07 indicates that PBPB is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.07, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.19% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.55 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.16 |
ROIC/WACC0.73
WACC9.01%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.51 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of PBPB (0.51) is worse than 73.33% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.45 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
PBPB has a Quick ratio of 0.45. This is in the lower half of the industry: PBPB underperforms 71.11% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.45 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 107.14% over the past year.
Looking at the last year, PBPB shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.86% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, PBPB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.46% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.86%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
3.2 Future
PBPB is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 10.63% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.61% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 35.28, which means the current valuation is very expensive for PBPB.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.25), we can say PBPB is valued slightly more expensively.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 27.86, PBPB can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.27, PBPB is valued a bit more expensive.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35.28 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.86 |
4.2 Price Multiples
The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as PBPB.
66.67% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than PBPB, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 814.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.81 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for PBPB!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
10.23
-0.01 (-0.1%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners80.19%
Inst Owner Change-0.39%
Ins Owners8.75%
Ins Owner Change2.47%
Market Cap308.64M
Analysts80
Price Target17.34 (69.5%)
Short Float %4.23%
Short Ratio3.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)90.31%
Min EPS beat(2)84.54%
Max EPS beat(2)96.08%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)97.44%
Min EPS beat(4)30.72%
Max EPS beat(4)178.43%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.02%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.75%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.3%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.78%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.63%
Revenue beat(16)3
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)10.87%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-16.65%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-149.99%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-12.57%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.16%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.41%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35.28 | ||
| Fwd PE | 27.86 | ||
| P/S | 0.67 | ||
| P/FCF | 814.35 | ||
| P/OCF | 15.7 | ||
| P/B | 5.29 | ||
| P/tB | 5.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.81 |
EPS(TTM)0.29
EY2.83%
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY3.59%
FCF(TTM)0.01
FCFY0.12%
OCF(TTM)0.65
OCFY6.37%
SpS15.33
BVpS1.94
TBVpS1.75
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 15.31% | ||
| ROE | 69.01% | ||
| ROCE | 7.68% | ||
| ROIC | 6.6% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.01% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.22% | ||
| OM | 3.28% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.71% | ||
| GM | 74.05% | ||
| FCFM | 0.08% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.69%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.85%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.76
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.07 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.55 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.14 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 152.21% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.17% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 21.25 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.58% | ||
| Profit Quality | 0.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.45 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.16 |
F-Score6
WACC9.01%
ROIC/WACC0.73
Cap/Depr(3y)121.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)47.56%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.86%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y35.79%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year171.44%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-84.43%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-36.94%
OCF growth 1Y0.9%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.59%