POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
PBPB gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 131 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. PBPB has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. PBPB is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PBPB was profitable.
In the past year PBPB had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 16.18%, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 93.89% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a better Return On Equity (73.04%) than 97.71% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.32%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: PBPB outperforms 57.25% of its industry peers.
PBPB had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.13%. This is significantly below the industry average of 13.91%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.13%) for PBPB is below the current ROIC(6.32%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.18% | ||
| ROE | 73.04% | ||
| ROIC | 6.32% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 9.24%, PBPB is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.99% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a Operating Margin of 3.12%. This is in the lower half of the industry: PBPB underperforms 69.47% of its industry peers.
PBPB's Gross Margin of 74.37% is amongst the best of the industry. PBPB outperforms 90.84% of its industry peers.
PBPB's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.24% | ||
| GM | 74.37% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), PBPB is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PBPB has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, PBPB has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
PBPB has an Altman-Z score of 1.35. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.35, PBPB perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 41.98% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.62. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.62 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PBPB has a Debt to FCF ratio of 0.62. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 90.84% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.08 indicates that PBPB is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of PBPB (0.08) is better than 83.21% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.35 |
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC9.13%
2.3 Liquidity
PBPB has a Current Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Current ratio (0.53) than 74.05% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Quick Ratio of 0.53. This is a bad value and indicates that PBPB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
PBPB's Quick ratio of 0.48 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. PBPB is outperformed by 71.76% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
PBPB shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 107.14%, which is quite impressive.
Looking at the last year, PBPB shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -3.96% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, PBPB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.46% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.63% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.61% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
PBPB is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 43.62.
PBPB's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.46), we can say PBPB is valued expensively.
PBPB is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.45.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 36.44, PBPB is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 34.45 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 52.39 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for PBPB!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
12.65
+0.11 (+0.88%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.05%
Inst Owner Change0.03%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change8.35%
Market Cap381.65M
Analysts80
Price Target17.34 (37.08%)
Short Float %4.47%
Short Ratio5.18
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)98.04%
Min EPS beat(2)96.08%
Max EPS beat(2)100%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)77.84%
Min EPS beat(4)30.72%
Max EPS beat(4)100%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.75%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.45%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.5%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.55%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.27%
PT rev (1m)2%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.41%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43.62 | ||
| Fwd PE | 34.45 | ||
| P/S | 0.82 | ||
| P/FCF | 52.39 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.83 | ||
| P/B | 6.48 | ||
| P/tB | 7.15 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2 |
EPS(TTM)0.29
EY2.29%
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY2.9%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.91%
OCF(TTM)0.91
OCFY7.23%
SpS15.42
BVpS1.95
TBVpS1.77
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.18% | ||
| ROE | 73.04% | ||
| ROCE | 7.35% | ||
| ROIC | 6.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.83% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.04% | ||
| OM | 3.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.24% | ||
| GM | 74.37% | ||
| FCFM | 1.57% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.69%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.85%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 151.84% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 30.11 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 98.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | 16.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.35 |
F-Score7
WACC9.13%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)121.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)47.56%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y39.81%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year171.84%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-20.82%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-36.94%
OCF growth 1Y41.1%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.59%