POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to PBPB. PBPB was compared to 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. PBPB has an average financial health and profitability rating. While showing a medium growth rate, PBPB is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year PBPB was profitable.
In the past year PBPB had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: PBPB reported negative net income in multiple years.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
PBPB's Return On Assets of 16.18% is amongst the best of the industry. PBPB outperforms 93.98% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 73.04%, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.74% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 6.32%, PBPB perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.39% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 4.13%. This is significantly below the industry average of 14.05%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.13%) for PBPB is below the current ROIC(6.32%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.18% | ||
| ROE | 73.04% | ||
| ROIC | 6.32% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
PBPB has a better Profit Margin (9.24%) than 72.18% of its industry peers.
PBPB's Operating Margin of 3.12% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. PBPB is outperformed by 69.92% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a better Gross Margin (74.37%) than 90.23% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PBPB has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.24% | ||
| GM | 74.37% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
PBPB has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, PBPB has more shares outstanding
PBPB has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, PBPB has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.29, we must say that PBPB is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
PBPB has a Altman-Z score (1.29) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of PBPB is 0.62, which is an excellent value as it means it would take PBPB, only 0.62 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 0.62, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.98% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.08 indicates that PBPB is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.08, PBPB belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.46% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.62 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.29 |
ROIC/WACC0.72
WACC8.81%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.53 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
PBPB has a Current ratio of 0.53. This is in the lower half of the industry: PBPB underperforms 73.68% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.48 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.48, PBPB is doing worse than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
PBPB shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 107.14%, which is quite impressive.
The Revenue has decreased by -3.96% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, PBPB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.46% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 10.63% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.61% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 42.45, which means the current valuation is very expensive for PBPB.
PBPB's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of PBPB to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.92), we can say PBPB is valued expensively.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 33.52, the valuation of PBPB can be described as expensive.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.49, PBPB is valued quite expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.52 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of PBPB is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 50.98 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.46 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
PBPB does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
12.31
+0.45 (+3.79%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners79.05%
Inst Owner Change4.35%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change3.16%
Market Cap371.39M
Analysts80
Price Target17.34 (40.86%)
Short Float %4.04%
Short Ratio4.39
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)98.04%
Min EPS beat(2)96.08%
Max EPS beat(2)100%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)77.84%
Min EPS beat(4)30.72%
Max EPS beat(4)100%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.75%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.45%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.5%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.55%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.27%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)10.87%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-5.6%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.94%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.88%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.52 | ||
| P/S | 0.8 | ||
| P/FCF | 50.98 | ||
| P/OCF | 13.46 | ||
| P/B | 6.31 | ||
| P/tB | 6.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 12.46 |
EPS(TTM)0.29
EY2.36%
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY2.98%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.96%
OCF(TTM)0.91
OCFY7.43%
SpS15.42
BVpS1.95
TBVpS1.77
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.18% | ||
| ROE | 73.04% | ||
| ROCE | 7.35% | ||
| ROIC | 6.32% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.83% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.04% | ||
| OM | 3.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 9.24% | ||
| GM | 74.37% | ||
| FCFM | 1.57% |
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.69%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.85%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.08 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.16 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 151.84% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.37% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 30.11 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 98.96% | ||
| Profit Quality | 16.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.48 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.29 |
F-Score7
WACC8.81%
ROIC/WACC0.72
Cap/Depr(3y)121.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)47.56%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y39.81%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year171.84%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-20.82%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-36.94%
OCF growth 1Y41.1%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.59%