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POTBELLY CORP (PBPB) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:PBPB - Nasdaq - US73754Y1001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

12.56  -0.08 (-0.63%)

After market: 12.56 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

4

Taking everything into account, PBPB scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. PBPB was compared to 131 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of PBPB get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. PBPB is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

5

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

PBPB had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year PBPB had a positive cash flow from operations.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In multiple years PBPB reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
PBPB Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFPBPB Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20M -20M 40M -40M -60M

1.2 Ratios

PBPB has a Return On Assets of 16.18%. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 93.89% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 73.04%, PBPB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 97.71% of the companies in the same industry.
PBPB has a Return On Invested Capital (6.32%) which is in line with its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for PBPB is significantly below the industry average of 15.87%.
The 3 year average ROIC (4.13%) for PBPB is below the current ROIC(6.32%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.18%
ROE 73.04%
ROIC 6.32%
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
PBPB Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICPBPB Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500 -500 1K -1K

1.3 Margins

Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 9.24%, PBPB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.99% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Operating Margin value of 3.12%, PBPB is not doing good in the industry: 69.47% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
The Gross Margin of PBPB (74.37%) is better than 90.84% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of PBPB has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.12%
PM (TTM) 9.24%
GM 74.37%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
PBPB Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsPBPB Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 60

4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), PBPB is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for PBPB has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, PBPB has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for PBPB has been reduced compared to a year ago.
PBPB Yearly Shares OutstandingPBPB Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M
PBPB Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsPBPB Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.35, we must say that PBPB is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
PBPB has a Altman-Z score of 1.35. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: PBPB outperforms 41.22% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a debt to FCF ratio of 0.62. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 0.62 years to pay back of all of its debts.
PBPB has a Debt to FCF ratio of 0.62. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 90.84% of its industry peers.
PBPB has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.08. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
PBPB has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.08. This is amongst the best in the industry. PBPB outperforms 83.21% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.08
Debt/FCF 0.62
Altman-Z 1.35
ROIC/WACC0.69
WACC9.16%
PBPB Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFPBPB Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 50M 100M

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.53 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
PBPB has a worse Current ratio (0.53) than 74.05% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.48 indicates that PBPB may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.48, PBPB is not doing good in the industry: 71.76% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.53
Quick Ratio 0.48
PBPB Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesPBPB Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M

4

3. Growth

3.1 Past

PBPB shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 107.14%, which is quite impressive.
Looking at the last year, PBPB shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -3.96% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.46% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%

3.2 Future

PBPB is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 10.63% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, PBPB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.61% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
PBPB Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesPBPB Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M
PBPB Yearly EPS VS EstimatesPBPB Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5

2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 43.31, which means the current valuation is very expensive for PBPB.
PBPB's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
PBPB is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.04, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.20 indicates a quite expensive valuation of PBPB.
PBPB's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
PBPB is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 37.64, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 43.31
Fwd PE 34.2
PBPB Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsPBPB Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

PBPB's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
PBPB's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 52.02
EV/EBITDA 13.22
PBPB Per share dataPBPB EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15

4.3 Compensation for Growth

PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for PBPB!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

POTBELLY CORP

NASDAQ:PBPB (7/25/2025, 8:15:50 PM)

After market: 12.56 0 (0%)

12.56

-0.08 (-0.63%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)05-07 2025-05-07/amc
Earnings (Next)08-06 2025-08-06
Inst Owners79.05%
Inst Owner Change0.03%
Ins Owners10.09%
Ins Owner Change8.35%
Market Cap378.94M
Analysts80
Price Target17.34 (38.06%)
Short Float %4.47%
Short Ratio5.18
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)98.04%
Min EPS beat(2)96.08%
Max EPS beat(2)100%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)77.84%
Min EPS beat(4)30.72%
Max EPS beat(4)100%
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.75%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.45%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.1%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.3%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.5%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.55%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.27%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-12.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.86%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.41%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 43.31
Fwd PE 34.2
P/S 0.81
P/FCF 52.02
P/OCF 13.73
P/B 6.44
P/tB 7.09
EV/EBITDA 13.22
EPS(TTM)0.29
EY2.31%
EPS(NY)0.37
Fwd EY2.92%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.92%
OCF(TTM)0.91
OCFY7.28%
SpS15.42
BVpS1.95
TBVpS1.77
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 16.18%
ROE 73.04%
ROCE 7.35%
ROIC 6.32%
ROICexc 6.83%
ROICexgc 7.04%
OM 3.12%
PM (TTM) 9.24%
GM 74.37%
FCFM 1.57%
ROA(3y)6.36%
ROA(5y)-2.68%
ROE(3y)66.47%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)4.13%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)4.69%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)4.85%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)4.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y0.78%
GM growth 5Y0.13%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.75
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.08
Debt/FCF 0.62
Debt/EBITDA 0.16
Cap/Depr 151.84%
Cap/Sales 4.37%
Interest Coverage 30.11
Cash Conversion 98.96%
Profit Quality 16.94%
Current Ratio 0.53
Quick Ratio 0.48
Altman-Z 1.35
F-Score7
WACC9.16%
ROIC/WACC0.69
Cap/Depr(3y)121.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.11%
Cap/Sales(3y)3.17%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.13%
Profit Quality(3y)47.56%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)107.14%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%-100%
EPS Next Y-9.33%
EPS Next 2Y10.63%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.96%
Revenue growth 3Y6.77%
Revenue growth 5Y2.46%
Sales Q2Q%2.27%
Revenue Next Year2.74%
Revenue Next 2Y3.61%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y39.81%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year171.84%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-20.82%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y-36.94%
OCF growth 1Y41.1%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y1.59%