NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation
NYSE:NSC • US6558441084
288.87 USD
-2.39 (-0.82%)
Last: Mar 13, 2026, 10:18 AM
This NSC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.
Taking everything into account, NSC scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. NSC was compared to 42 industry peers in the Ground Transportation industry. NSC has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. NSC is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate. NSC also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. NSC Profitability Analysis
1.1 Basic Checks
- NSC had positive earnings in the past year.
- In the past year NSC had a positive cash flow from operations.
- In the past 5 years NSC has always been profitable.
- NSC had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- NSC's Return On Assets of 6.34% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NSC outperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
- Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 18.46%, NSC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 83.33% of the companies in the same industry.
- The Return On Invested Capital of NSC (7.97%) is better than 73.81% of its industry peers.
- The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NSC is in line with the industry average of 7.21%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.34% | ||
| ROE | 18.46% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% |
ROA(3y)5.57%
ROA(5y)6.58%
ROE(3y)17.01%
ROE(5y)19.74%
ROIC(3y)8.31%
ROIC(5y)9.01%
1.3 Margins
- NSC has a Profit Margin of 23.56%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NSC outperforms 88.10% of its industry peers.
- NSC's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
- With an excellent Operating Margin value of 34.52%, NSC belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NSC has remained more or less at the same level.
- With a decent Gross Margin value of 49.40%, NSC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
- NSC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 34.52% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.56% | ||
| GM | 49.4% |
OM growth 3Y-2.93%
OM growth 5Y-0.05%
PM growth 3Y-2.78%
PM growth 5Y2.79%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y-0.02%
2. NSC Health Analysis
2.1 Basic Checks
- NSC has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is destroying value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, NSC has less shares outstanding
- The number of shares outstanding for NSC has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
- The debt/assets ratio for NSC has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
- An Altman-Z score of 2.29 indicates that NSC is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
- With a Altman-Z score value of 2.29, NSC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
- NSC has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.92. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as NSC would need 7.92 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- NSC's Debt to FCF ratio of 7.92 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NSC outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
- NSC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.06. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
- NSC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.06. This is in the lower half of the industry: NSC underperforms 73.81% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.92 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.29 |
ROIC/WACC0.78
WACC10.22%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 0.85 indicates that NSC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- NSC has a Current ratio of 0.85. This is in the lower half of the industry: NSC underperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
- A Quick Ratio of 0.78 indicates that NSC may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
- NSC has a worse Quick ratio (0.78) than 73.81% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 |
3. NSC Growth Analysis
3.1 Past
- NSC shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 5.57%.
- NSC shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 6.21% yearly.
- NSC shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.47%.
- Measured over the past years, NSC shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.47% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.57%
EPS 3Y-3.48%
EPS 5Y6.21%
EPS Q2Q%5.92%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-1.5%
Revenue growth 5Y4.47%
Sales Q2Q%-1.65%
3.2 Future
- NSC is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.05% yearly.
- Based on estimates for the next years, NSC will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.58% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-2.19%
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%
EPS Next 5Y8.05%
Revenue Next Year1.98%
Revenue Next 2Y3.38%
Revenue Next 3Y3.69%
Revenue Next 5Y4.58%
3.3 Evolution
- When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
- When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
4. NSC Valuation Analysis
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- NSC is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.11.
- 69.05% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NSC, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
- NSC is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.71, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.63, the valuation of NSC can be described as rather expensive.
- 66.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NSC, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
- When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NSC to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.82), we can say NSC is valued inline with the index average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.11 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.63 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- The rest of the industry has a similar Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio as NSC.
- Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, NSC is valued a bit cheaper than 69.05% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 30.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.47 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- NSC has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.72
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%
5. NSC Dividend Analysis
5.1 Amount
- With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.74%, NSC has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
- NSC's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 0.67. NSC pays more dividend than 88.10% of the companies in the same industry.
- NSC's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% |
5.2 History
- The dividend of NSC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 7.45%!
- NSC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
- NSC has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.45%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years23
5.3 Sustainability
- NSC pays out 42.33% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
- The dividend of NSC is growing around the same rate as the earnings are growing. If this keeps up the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP42.33%
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%
NSC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics
NYSE:NSC (3/13/2026, 10:18:07 AM)
288.87
-2.39 (-0.82%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryGround Transportation
Earnings (Last)01-29 2026-01-29/bmo
Earnings (Next)04-21 2026-04-21/bmo
Inst Owners78.12%
Inst Owner Change1.93%
Ins Owners0.03%
Ins Owner Change1.16%
Market Cap64.87B
Revenue(TTM)12.18B
Net Income(TTM)2.87B
Analysts69.63
Price Target314.85 (8.99%)
Short Float %4.65%
Short Ratio8.96
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.74% |
Yearly Dividend5.39
Dividend Growth(5Y)7.45%
DP42.33%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years23
Ex-Date02-06 2026-02-06 (1.35)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)8.97%
Min EPS beat(2)2.49%
Max EPS beat(2)15.45%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)3.89%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.39%
Max EPS beat(4)15.45%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.73%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.36%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)1.52%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.53%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.88%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.18%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.88%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.43%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.45%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.45%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.65%
PT rev (1m)0.4%
PT rev (3m)-0.68%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.86%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.08%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.23%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.39%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.56%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.11 | ||
| Fwd PE | 23.63 | ||
| P/S | 5.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 30.07 | ||
| P/OCF | 14.88 | ||
| P/B | 4.17 | ||
| P/tB | 4.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.47 |
EPS(TTM)12.5
EY4.33%
EPS(NY)12.23
Fwd EY4.23%
FCF(TTM)9.61
FCFY3.33%
OCF(TTM)19.42
OCFY6.72%
SpS54.24
BVpS69.23
TBVpS69.23
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.72
Graham Number139.54
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.34% | ||
| ROE | 18.46% | ||
| ROCE | 10.14% | ||
| ROIC | 7.97% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.27% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.27% | ||
| OM | 34.52% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.56% | ||
| GM | 49.4% | ||
| FCFM | 17.71% |
ROA(3y)5.57%
ROA(5y)6.58%
ROE(3y)17.01%
ROE(5y)19.74%
ROIC(3y)8.31%
ROIC(5y)9.01%
ROICexc(3y)8.65%
ROICexc(5y)9.29%
ROICexgc(3y)8.65%
ROICexgc(5y)9.29%
ROCE(3y)10.57%
ROCE(5y)11.47%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-7.82%
ROICexgc growth 5Y1.52%
ROICexc growth 3Y-7.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.52%
OM growth 3Y-2.93%
OM growth 5Y-0.05%
PM growth 3Y-2.78%
PM growth 5Y2.79%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y-0.02%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.06 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 7.92 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.94 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 158.22% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 18.1% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 77.92% | ||
| Profit Quality | 75.16% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.85 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.78 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.29 |
F-Score6
WACC10.22%
ROIC/WACC0.78
Cap/Depr(3y)212.2%
Cap/Depr(5y)184.12%
Cap/Sales(3y)23.54%
Cap/Sales(5y)19.82%
Profit Quality(3y)40.58%
Profit Quality(5y)56.81%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)5.57%
EPS 3Y-3.48%
EPS 5Y6.21%
EPS Q2Q%5.92%
EPS Next Y-2.19%
EPS Next 2Y4.53%
EPS Next 3Y6.19%
EPS Next 5Y8.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.47%
Revenue growth 3Y-1.5%
Revenue growth 5Y4.47%
Sales Q2Q%-1.65%
Revenue Next Year1.98%
Revenue Next 2Y3.38%
Revenue Next 3Y3.69%
Revenue Next 5Y4.58%
EBIT growth 1Y-8.19%
EBIT growth 3Y-4.38%
EBIT growth 5Y4.42%
EBIT Next Year34.01%
EBIT Next 3Y14.92%
EBIT Next 5Y11%
FCF growth 1Y7603.57%
FCF growth 3Y-1.75%
FCF growth 5Y0.13%
OCF growth 1Y7.63%
OCF growth 3Y1.09%
OCF growth 5Y3.7%
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP / NSC FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to NSC.
What is the valuation status of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 4 / 10 to NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of NSC stock?
NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for NSC stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) is expected to decline by -2.19% in the next year.
Is the dividend of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP sustainable?
The dividend rating of NORFOLK SOUTHERN CORP (NSC) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 42.33%.