NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:NOG - US6655313079 - Common Stock
22.04 USD
-1.6 (-6.77%)
22.26 USD
+0.22 (+1%)
Taking everything into account, NOG scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. NOG was compared to 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. NOG scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. NOG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
NOG had positive earnings in the past year.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years NOG reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
In the past 5 years NOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
NOG's Return On Assets of 10.67% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 88.63% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 25.23%, NOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.52% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (17.77%) than 94.31% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NOG is in line with the industry average of 21.57%.
The 3 year average ROIC (22.03%) for NOG is well above the current ROIC(17.77%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.67% | ||
| ROE | 25.23% | ||
| ROIC | 17.77% |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 23.62%, NOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.67% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG's Operating Margin of 42.64% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 87.68% of its industry peers.
NOG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
NOG has a Gross Margin of 77.19%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 87.68% of its industry peers.
NOG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 42.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.62% | ||
| GM | 77.19% |
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
NOG has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
NOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for NOG has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
NOG has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
NOG has an Altman-Z score of 1.70. This is a bad value and indicates that NOG is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of NOG (1.70) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
NOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.98. This is a neutral value indicating NOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NOG's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.98 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. NOG is outperformed by 68.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.98 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.7 |
ROIC/WACC1.96
WACC9.08%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that NOG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
NOG's Current ratio of 1.21 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. NOG outperforms 53.08% of its industry peers.
NOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that NOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
NOG has a Quick ratio of 1.21. This is in the better half of the industry: NOG outperforms 62.56% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for NOG have decreased strongly by -14.31% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, NOG shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.73% on average per year.
NOG shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 24.84%.
Measured over the past years, NOG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 36.34% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.31%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%-6.16%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)24.84%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%26.04%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 0.50% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.07% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-11.95%
EPS Next 2Y-22%
EPS Next 3Y-11.61%
EPS Next 5Y0.5%
Revenue Next Year5.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.13%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.98%
Revenue Next 5Y2.07%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 4.23 indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
NOG's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. NOG is cheaper than 94.79% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of NOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.02), we can say NOG is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.90, the valuation of NOG can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NOG is valued cheaper than 85.31% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.57. NOG is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.9 |
4.2 Price Multiples
92.89% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NOG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.44 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of NOG may justify a higher PE ratio.
NOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -11.61% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
EPS Next 2Y-22%
EPS Next 3Y-11.61%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
NOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 7.61%, which is a nice return.
The stock price of NOG dropped by -28.30% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.16, NOG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.43, NOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.61% |
5.2 History
NOG has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
NOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
27.54% of the earnings are spent on dividend by NOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP27.54%
EPS Next 2Y-22%
EPS Next 3Y-11.61%
22.04
-1.6 (-6.77%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners118.35%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.9%
Ins Owner Change0.17%
Market Cap2.15B
Analysts78.67
Price Target33.97 (54.13%)
Short Float %22.9%
Short Ratio11.8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.61% |
Yearly Dividend1.62
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP27.54%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.28%
Min EPS beat(2)17.71%
Max EPS beat(2)40.84%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)18.26%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(4)40.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)11.43%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)7.77%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)6.56%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)19.21%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.21%
Max Revenue beat(2)32.21%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)16.79%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(4)37.46%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.2%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)12.36%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.41%
PT rev (1m)-2.06%
PT rev (3m)-8.54%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.06%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.03%
EPS NY rev (1m)1.93%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.27%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.86%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.94%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.19%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.29%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.23 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.9 | ||
| P/S | 0.83 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 1.49 | ||
| P/B | 0.89 | ||
| P/tB | 0.89 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.44 |
EPS(TTM)5.21
EY23.64%
EPS(NY)3.19
Fwd EY14.49%
FCF(TTM)-2.39
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)14.81
OCFY67.21%
SpS26.41
BVpS24.73
TBVpS24.73
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.67% | ||
| ROE | 25.23% | ||
| ROCE | 21.08% | ||
| ROIC | 17.77% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.86% | ||
| OM | 42.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.62% | ||
| GM | 77.19% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
ROICexc(3y)22.07%
ROICexc(5y)19.88%
ROICexgc(3y)22.07%
ROICexgc(5y)19.88%
ROCE(3y)26.13%
ROCE(5y)23.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexcg growth 5Y35.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y35.22%
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.98 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.24 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 209.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 65.14% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.05% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.7 |
F-Score7
WACC9.08%
ROIC/WACC1.96
Cap/Depr(3y)383.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)349.2%
Cap/Sales(3y)82.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)83.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.31%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%-6.16%
EPS Next Y-11.95%
EPS Next 2Y-22%
EPS Next 3Y-11.61%
EPS Next 5Y0.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)24.84%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%26.04%
Revenue Next Year5.31%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.13%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.98%
Revenue Next 5Y2.07%
EBIT growth 1Y34.02%
EBIT growth 3Y120.69%
EBIT growth 5Y68.41%
EBIT Next Year86.27%
EBIT Next 3Y20.15%
EBIT Next 5Y15.47%
FCF growth 1Y55.45%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y26.67%
OCF growth 3Y52.59%
OCF growth 5Y32.9%