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NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:NOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6655313079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

29.61  +1.41 (+5%)

After market: 29.61 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to NOG. NOG was compared to 214 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While NOG belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. NOG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year NOG was profitable.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In multiple years NOG reported negative net income over the last 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years NOG had a positive operating cash flow.
NOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFNOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of NOG (11.41%) is better than 86.45% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of NOG (26.96%) is better than 87.85% of its industry peers.
NOG has a Return On Invested Capital of 16.57%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 91.12% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NOG is below the industry average of 25.65%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (16.57%) for NOG is well below the 3 year average (22.03%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that NOG had better years and this may not be a problem.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 11.41%
ROE 26.96%
ROIC 16.57%
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
NOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICNOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 200 400

1.3 Margins

The Profit Margin of NOG (26.64%) is better than 78.04% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 41.30%, NOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.05% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NOG has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 76.13%, NOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.45% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 41.3%
PM (TTM) 26.64%
GM 76.13%
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
NOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsNOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -100 -200 -300

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2

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NOG is creating value.
NOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, NOG has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for NOG is higher compared to a year ago.
NOG Yearly Shares OutstandingNOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
NOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsNOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.68, we must say that NOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
NOG has a Altman-Z score (1.68) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96 indicates that NOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
NOG has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.96) than 69.63% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.96
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.68
ROIC/WACC1.52
WACC10.92%
NOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFNOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 1B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.92 indicates that NOG may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of NOG (0.92) is worse than 60.75% of its industry peers.
NOG has a Quick Ratio of 0.92. This is a bad value and indicates that NOG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
NOG has a Quick ratio of 0.92. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: NOG outperforms 50.47% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.92
Quick Ratio 0.92
NOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesNOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

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5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for NOG have decreased strongly by -13.26% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 9.73% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, NOG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 22.77%.
The Revenue has been growing by 36.34% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth!
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.26%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%3.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.77%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%45.57%

3.2 Future

Based on estimates for the next years, NOG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.12% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.22% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-14.26%
EPS Next 2Y-8.3%
EPS Next 3Y-1.53%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue Next Year0.66%
Revenue Next 2Y1.03%
Revenue Next 3Y2.22%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
NOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesNOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 500M 1B 1.5B 2B
NOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesNOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2 4 6 8

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6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.59, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of NOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: NOG is cheaper than 86.45% of the companies listed in the same industry.
NOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 24.95, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.71, the valuation of NOG can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NOG is valued cheaper than 81.78% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 20.99.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 5.59
Fwd PE 6.71
NOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsNOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20

4.2 Price Multiples

89.25% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NOG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 2.93
NOG Per share dataNOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

NOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.57
EPS Next 2Y-8.3%
EPS Next 3Y-1.53%

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5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

NOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.84%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 7.26, NOG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
NOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.41.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.84%

5.2 History

NOG has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
The dividend of NOG decreased in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
NOG Yearly Dividends per shareNOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

NOG pays out 25.26% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.26%
EPS Next 2Y-8.3%
EPS Next 3Y-1.53%
NOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendNOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M
NOG Dividend Payout.NOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.NOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC

NYSE:NOG (5/13/2025, 8:04:01 PM)

After market: 29.61 0 (0%)

29.61

+1.41 (+5%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)04-29 2025-04-29/amc
Earnings (Next)07-28 2025-07-28/amc
Inst Owners113.69%
Inst Owner Change-0.66%
Ins Owners2.8%
Ins Owner Change0.24%
Market Cap2.92B
Analysts78.75
Price Target39.48 (33.33%)
Short Float %20.99%
Short Ratio9.17
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 6.84%
Yearly Dividend1.62
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP25.26%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years2
Ex-Date03-28 2025-03-28 (0.45)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)8.69%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(2)18.78%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)12.9%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(4)18.78%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)7.59%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)4.48%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)5.87%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.1%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.5%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)8.45%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(4)37.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.64%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.44%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-5.22%
PT rev (1m)-13.26%
PT rev (3m)-23.16%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.61%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.32%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.15%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.86%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.06%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.78%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.85%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 5.59
Fwd PE 6.71
P/S 1.2
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 2.05
P/B 1.22
P/tB 1.22
EV/EBITDA 2.93
EPS(TTM)5.3
EY17.9%
EPS(NY)4.41
Fwd EY14.91%
FCF(TTM)-1.23
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)14.43
OCFY48.72%
SpS24.64
BVpS24.34
TBVpS24.34
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.57
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 11.41%
ROE 26.96%
ROCE 19.65%
ROIC 16.57%
ROICexc 16.68%
ROICexgc 16.68%
OM 41.3%
PM (TTM) 26.64%
GM 76.13%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
ROICexc(3y)22.07%
ROICexc(5y)19.88%
ROICexgc(3y)22.07%
ROICexgc(5y)19.88%
ROCE(3y)26.13%
ROCE(5y)23.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexcg growth 5Y35.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y35.22%
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.96
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 1.3
Cap/Depr 200.01%
Cap/Sales 63.56%
Interest Coverage 6.36
Cash Conversion 80.14%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.92
Quick Ratio 0.92
Altman-Z 1.68
F-Score7
WACC10.92%
ROIC/WACC1.52
Cap/Depr(3y)383.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)349.2%
Cap/Sales(3y)82.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)83.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.26%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%3.91%
EPS Next Y-14.26%
EPS Next 2Y-8.3%
EPS Next 3Y-1.53%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.77%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%45.57%
Revenue Next Year0.66%
Revenue Next 2Y1.03%
Revenue Next 3Y2.22%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y21.75%
EBIT growth 3Y120.69%
EBIT growth 5Y68.41%
EBIT Next Year86.03%
EBIT Next 3Y25.36%
EBIT Next 5Y21.95%
FCF growth 1Y66.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y36.43%
OCF growth 3Y52.59%
OCF growth 5Y32.9%