NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:NOG • US6655313079

Current stock price

29.91 USD
-0.91 (-2.95%)
At close:
29.99 USD
+0.08 (+0.27%)
Pre-Market:

This NOG fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

5

1. NOG Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • NOG had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year NOG had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Of the past 5 years NOG 4 years were profitable.
  • In the past 5 years NOG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
NOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFNOG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B 1.5B

1.2 Ratios

  • NOG has a Return On Assets of 0.72%. This is in the lower half of the industry: NOG underperforms 64.59% of its industry peers.
  • NOG has a Return On Equity of 1.82%. This is in the lower half of the industry: NOG underperforms 63.16% of its industry peers.
  • NOG's Return On Invested Capital of 13.93% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 91.87% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for NOG is significantly below the industry average of 23.14%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.72%
ROE 1.82%
ROIC 13.93%
ROA(3y)10.19%
ROA(5y)11.07%
ROE(3y)23.11%
ROE(5y)32.61%
ROIC(3y)14.83%
ROIC(5y)14.52%
NOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICNOG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 100 -100 200 300 400

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of NOG (1.57%) is worse than 60.77% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of NOG has declined.
  • NOG's Operating Margin of 39.65% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 87.08% of its industry peers.
  • NOG's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
  • NOG's Gross Margin of 75.56% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 87.08% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NOG has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 39.65%
PM (TTM) 1.57%
GM 75.56%
OM growth 3Y-10.37%
OM growth 5Y-0.59%
PM growth 3Y-67.67%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1%
GM growth 5Y0.54%
NOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsNOG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 50 -50 -100 -150 -200

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3

2. NOG Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NOG is creating value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for NOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, NOG has more shares outstanding
  • Compared to 1 year ago, NOG has a worse debt to assets ratio.
NOG Yearly Shares OutstandingNOG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M
NOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsNOG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.76, we must say that NOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • NOG has a Altman-Z score (1.76) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of NOG is 9.47, which is on the high side as it means it would take NOG, 9.47 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • NOG's Debt to FCF ratio of 9.47 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. NOG outperforms 55.98% of its industry peers.
  • NOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.13. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of NOG (1.13) is worse than 68.42% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.13
Debt/FCF 9.47
Altman-Z 1.76
ROIC/WACC1.91
WACC7.3%
NOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFNOG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 1B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • NOG has a Current Ratio of 1.09. This is a normal value and indicates that NOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.09, NOG is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.41% of the companies in the same industry.
  • NOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.09. This is a normal value and indicates that NOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • NOG has a Quick ratio (1.09) which is in line with its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.09
Quick Ratio 1.09
NOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesNOG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M 400M 500M

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. NOG Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • NOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -13.14%.
  • Measured over the past years, NOG shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 21.11% on average per year.
  • NOG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 11.23%.
  • Measured over the past years, NOG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 35.00% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.14%
EPS 3Y-11.28%
EPS 5Y21.11%
EPS Q2Q%-25.23%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.23%
Revenue growth 3Y16.38%
Revenue growth 5Y35%
Sales Q2Q%18.49%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 0.20% on average over the next years.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, NOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.14% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-39.18%
EPS Next 2Y-18.57%
EPS Next 3Y-6.04%
EPS Next 5Y0.2%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.01%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.62%
Revenue Next 5Y2.14%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
NOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesNOG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B
NOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesNOG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2 4 6

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6

4. NOG Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • A Price/Earnings ratio of 6.56 indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, NOG is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.82% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of NOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.75), we can say NOG is valued rather cheaply.
  • The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.78, which indicates a very decent valuation of NOG.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NOG is valued cheaper than 85.17% of the companies in the same industry.
  • NOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.10, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 6.56
Fwd PE 10.78
NOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsNOG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of NOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: NOG is cheaper than 97.13% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, NOG is valued a bit cheaper than 78.95% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 12.36
EV/EBITDA 3.06
NOG Per share dataNOG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • NOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -6.04% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.31
EPS Next 2Y-18.57%
EPS Next 3Y-6.04%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. NOG Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • NOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.92%, which is a nice return.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.20, NOG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
  • NOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 5.92%

5.2 History

  • NOG has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • NOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
NOG Yearly Dividends per shareNOG Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

  • 447.37% of the earnings are spent on dividend by NOG. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
DP447.37%
EPS Next 2Y-18.57%
EPS Next 3Y-6.04%
NOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendNOG Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M
NOG Dividend Payout.NOG Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.NOG Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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NOG Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC

NYSE:NOG (3/30/2026, 8:20:57 PM)

Premarket: 29.99 +0.08 (+0.27%)

29.91

-0.91 (-2.95%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)02-25
Earnings (Next)04-27
Inst Owners114.04%
Inst Owner Change-6.11%
Ins Owners2.96%
Ins Owner Change0.67%
Market Cap3.12B
Revenue(TTM)2.48B
Net Income(TTM)38.76M
Analysts78.67
Price Target33.35 (11.5%)
Short Float %17.35%
Short Ratio6.83
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 5.92%
Yearly Dividend1.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP447.37%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date03-30
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)12.19%
Min EPS beat(2)5.85%
Max EPS beat(2)18.53%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)20.73%
Min EPS beat(4)5.85%
Max EPS beat(4)40.84%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)15.35%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)10.64%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)8.82%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.56%
Min Revenue beat(2)-7.69%
Max Revenue beat(2)16.82%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)11.89%
Min Revenue beat(4)-7.69%
Max Revenue beat(4)32.21%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)7.05%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.42%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.73%
PT rev (1m)9.36%
PT rev (3m)5.83%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-5.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.37%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.26%
EPS NY rev (3m)-10.99%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.09%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.76%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.14%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.03%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 6.56
Fwd PE 10.78
P/S 1.26
P/FCF 12.36
P/OCF 2.08
P/B 1.47
P/tB 1.47
EV/EBITDA 3.06
EPS(TTM)4.56
EY15.25%
EPS(NY)2.77
Fwd EY9.27%
FCF(TTM)2.42
FCFY8.09%
OCF(TTM)14.41
OCFY48.17%
SpS23.7
BVpS20.35
TBVpS20.35
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.31
Graham Number45.7
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 0.72%
ROE 1.82%
ROCE 20.16%
ROIC 13.93%
ROICexc 13.97%
ROICexgc 13.97%
OM 39.65%
PM (TTM) 1.57%
GM 75.56%
FCFM 10.21%
ROA(3y)10.19%
ROA(5y)11.07%
ROE(3y)23.11%
ROE(5y)32.61%
ROIC(3y)14.83%
ROIC(5y)14.52%
ROICexc(3y)14.86%
ROICexc(5y)14.56%
ROICexgc(3y)14.86%
ROICexgc(5y)14.56%
ROCE(3y)21.45%
ROCE(5y)21.01%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-16.09%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-9.21%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.09%
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.21%
OM growth 3Y-10.37%
OM growth 5Y-0.59%
PM growth 3Y-67.67%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y1%
GM growth 5Y0.54%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.13
Debt/FCF 9.47
Debt/EBITDA 1.33
Cap/Depr 153.7%
Cap/Sales 50.59%
Interest Coverage 5.75
Cash Conversion 83.79%
Profit Quality 652.27%
Current Ratio 1.09
Quick Ratio 1.09
Altman-Z 1.76
F-Score7
WACC7.3%
ROIC/WACC1.91
Cap/Depr(3y)253.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)344.91%
Cap/Sales(3y)70.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)83.57%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.14%
EPS 3Y-11.28%
EPS 5Y21.11%
EPS Q2Q%-25.23%
EPS Next Y-39.18%
EPS Next 2Y-18.57%
EPS Next 3Y-6.04%
EPS Next 5Y0.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)11.23%
Revenue growth 3Y16.38%
Revenue growth 5Y35%
Sales Q2Q%18.49%
Revenue Next Year-10.36%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.01%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.62%
Revenue Next 5Y2.14%
EBIT growth 1Y17.09%
EBIT growth 3Y4.31%
EBIT growth 5Y34.2%
EBIT Next Year166.92%
EBIT Next 3Y47.85%
EBIT Next 5Y28.1%
FCF growth 1Y189.28%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y39.53%
OCF growth 1Y6.86%
OCF growth 3Y17.48%
OCF growth 5Y35.32%

NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC / NOG Fundamental Analysis FAQ

Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to NOG.


What is the valuation status for NOG stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) stock?

NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) has a profitability rating of 5 / 10.


What is the financial health of NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) stock?

The financial health rating of NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) is 3 / 10.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for NOG stock?

The dividend rating of NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 447.37%.