NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:NOG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US6655313079 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall NOG gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated NOG against 213 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While NOG belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. NOG is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year NOG was profitable.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: NOG reported negative net income in multiple years.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 11.41%, NOG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.39% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG has a Return On Equity of 26.96%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 89.20% of its industry peers.
NOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (16.57%) than 91.55% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for NOG is below the industry average of 25.73%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (16.57%) for NOG is well below the 3 year average (22.03%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that NOG had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.41% | ||
| ROE | 26.96% | ||
| ROIC | 16.57% |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
1.3 Margins
NOG's Profit Margin of 26.64% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NOG outperforms 77.93% of its industry peers.
NOG has a Operating Margin of 41.30%. This is amongst the best in the industry. NOG outperforms 84.98% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of NOG has grown nicely.
NOG's Gross Margin of 76.13% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 87.79% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NOG has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 41.3% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 26.64% | ||
| GM | 76.13% |
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so NOG is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for NOG has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, NOG has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for NOG is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.63, we must say that NOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
NOG has a Altman-Z score (1.63) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
NOG has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96. This is a neutral value indicating NOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.96, NOG is doing worse than 68.08% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.63 |
ROIC/WACC1.57
WACC10.58%
2.3 Liquidity
NOG has a Current Ratio of 0.92. This is a bad value and indicates that NOG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 0.92, NOG is doing worse than 61.97% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG has a Quick Ratio of 0.92. This is a bad value and indicates that NOG is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
NOG has a Quick ratio of 0.92. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: NOG outperforms 48.83% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.92 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.92 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for NOG have decreased strongly by -13.26% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, NOG shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 9.73% on average per year.
NOG shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 22.77%.
Measured over the past years, NOG shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 36.34% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.26%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%3.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.77%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%51.91%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 4.12% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, NOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.97% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-15.3%
EPS Next 2Y-14.69%
EPS Next 3Y-5.38%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue Next Year0.8%
Revenue Next 2Y1.1%
Revenue Next 3Y1.97%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 5.02, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of NOG indicates a rather cheap valuation: NOG is cheaper than 88.26% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of NOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.25), we can say NOG is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.96, the valuation of NOG can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, NOG is valued cheaper than 84.04% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.15, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.96 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, NOG is valued cheaper than 88.73% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.76 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as NOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -5.38% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.52
EPS Next 2Y-14.69%
EPS Next 3Y-5.38%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.63%, NOG is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.82, NOG pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
NOG's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.63% |
5.2 History
NOG has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
NOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
NOG pays out 25.26% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
DP25.26%
EPS Next 2Y-14.69%
EPS Next 3Y-5.38%
26.58
-0.58 (-2.14%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners113.69%
Inst Owner Change2.85%
Ins Owners2.8%
Ins Owner Change0.24%
Market Cap2.62B
Analysts78.75
Price Target39.48 (48.53%)
Short Float %20.99%
Short Ratio9.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.63% |
Yearly Dividend1.62
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP25.26%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)8.16%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(2)17.71%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)12.63%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(4)18.32%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)7.46%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)4.39%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)5.8%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.21%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)9.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(4)37.46%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)2.1%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)10.75%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-4.99%
PT rev (1m)-2.52%
PT rev (3m)-20.94%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.71%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-9.76%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.21%
EPS NY rev (3m)-12.55%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.06%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.96 | ||
| P/S | 1.08 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 1.84 | ||
| P/B | 1.09 | ||
| P/tB | 1.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.76 |
EPS(TTM)5.3
EY19.94%
EPS(NY)3.82
Fwd EY14.37%
FCF(TTM)-1.23
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)14.43
OCFY54.28%
SpS24.64
BVpS24.34
TBVpS24.34
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.52
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 11.41% | ||
| ROE | 26.96% | ||
| ROCE | 19.65% | ||
| ROIC | 16.57% | ||
| ROICexc | 16.68% | ||
| ROICexgc | 16.68% | ||
| OM | 41.3% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 26.64% | ||
| GM | 76.13% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
ROICexc(3y)22.07%
ROICexc(5y)19.88%
ROICexgc(3y)22.07%
ROICexgc(5y)19.88%
ROCE(3y)26.13%
ROCE(5y)23.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexcg growth 5Y35.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y35.22%
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.43
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.3 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 200.01% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 63.56% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.36 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 80.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.92 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.92 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.63 |
F-Score7
WACC10.58%
ROIC/WACC1.57
Cap/Depr(3y)383.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)349.2%
Cap/Sales(3y)82.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)83.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-13.26%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%3.91%
EPS Next Y-15.3%
EPS Next 2Y-14.69%
EPS Next 3Y-5.38%
EPS Next 5Y4.12%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)22.77%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%51.91%
Revenue Next Year0.8%
Revenue Next 2Y1.1%
Revenue Next 3Y1.97%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y21.75%
EBIT growth 3Y120.69%
EBIT growth 5Y68.41%
EBIT Next Year86.85%
EBIT Next 3Y23.96%
EBIT Next 5Y21.95%
FCF growth 1Y66.25%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y36.43%
OCF growth 3Y52.59%
OCF growth 5Y32.9%