NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC (NOG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:NOG - US6655313079 - Common Stock
24.84 USD
-1.18 (-4.53%)
25.1 USD
+0.26 (+1.05%)
NOG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. NOG has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. NOG has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
NOG had positive earnings in the past year.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: NOG reported negative net income in multiple years.
NOG had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
NOG's Return On Assets of 10.67% is amongst the best of the industry. NOG outperforms 87.62% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 25.23%, NOG belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.00% of the companies in the same industry.
NOG has a better Return On Invested Capital (17.77%) than 93.81% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for NOG is in line with the industry average of 21.91%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (17.77%) for NOG is well below the 3 year average (22.03%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that NOG had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.67% | ||
| ROE | 25.23% | ||
| ROIC | 17.77% |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of NOG (23.62%) is better than 78.57% of its industry peers.
The Operating Margin of NOG (42.64%) is better than 87.14% of its industry peers.
NOG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of NOG (77.19%) is better than 88.10% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of NOG has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 42.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.62% | ||
| GM | 77.19% |
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), NOG is creating value.
NOG has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
NOG has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for NOG is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.72, we must say that NOG is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
NOG's Altman-Z score of 1.72 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. NOG outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.98 indicates that NOG is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.98, NOG is not doing good in the industry: 67.62% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.98 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
ROIC/WACC1.92
WACC9.28%
2.3 Liquidity
NOG has a Current Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that NOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
NOG has a Current ratio (1.21) which is in line with its industry peers.
NOG has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that NOG is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.21, NOG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.33% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
NOG shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -14.31%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 9.73% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
NOG shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 24.84%.
NOG shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 36.34% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.31%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%-6.16%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)24.84%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%26.04%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, NOG will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 0.50% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, NOG will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-13.62%
EPS Next 2Y-21.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.12%
EPS Next 5Y0.5%
Revenue Next Year4.07%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.41%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.57%
Revenue Next 5Y2.07%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 4.77, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of NOG.
92.86% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NOG, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of NOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.06), we can say NOG is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.75, the valuation of NOG can be described as very cheap.
81.90% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NOG, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of NOG to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.69), we can say NOG is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.75 |
4.2 Price Multiples
92.86% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than NOG, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.51 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
NOG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as NOG's earnings are expected to decrease with -12.12% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.49
EPS Next 2Y-21.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.12%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
NOG has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.92%, which is a nice return.
NOG's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 6.02.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.45, NOG pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.92% |
5.2 History
NOG has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
NOG has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
27.54% of the earnings are spent on dividend by NOG. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP27.54%
EPS Next 2Y-21.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.12%
24.84
-1.18 (-4.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners117.89%
Inst Owner Change21.49%
Ins Owners2.87%
Ins Owner Change0.24%
Market Cap2.42B
Analysts78.67
Price Target34.37 (38.37%)
Short Float %22.68%
Short Ratio11.4
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.92% |
Yearly Dividend1.62
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP27.54%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)29.28%
Min EPS beat(2)17.71%
Max EPS beat(2)40.84%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)18.26%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.4%
Max EPS beat(4)40.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)11.43%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)7.77%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)6.56%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)19.21%
Min Revenue beat(2)6.21%
Max Revenue beat(2)32.21%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)16.79%
Min Revenue beat(4)-8.7%
Max Revenue beat(4)37.46%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)6.2%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)12.36%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.41%
PT rev (1m)-6.27%
PT rev (3m)-7.44%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.7%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-21.72%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.59%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.99%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-1.51%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-7.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)4.81%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.71%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.75 | ||
| P/S | 0.94 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 1.68 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.51 |
EPS(TTM)5.21
EY20.97%
EPS(NY)3.2
Fwd EY12.9%
FCF(TTM)-2.39
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)14.81
OCFY59.63%
SpS26.41
BVpS24.73
TBVpS24.73
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.49
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.67% | ||
| ROE | 25.23% | ||
| ROCE | 21.08% | ||
| ROIC | 17.77% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.86% | ||
| ROICexgc | 17.86% | ||
| OM | 42.64% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 23.62% | ||
| GM | 77.19% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)18.39%
ROA(5y)-10.2%
ROE(3y)55.05%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)22.03%
ROIC(5y)19.84%
ROICexc(3y)22.07%
ROICexc(5y)19.88%
ROICexgc(3y)22.07%
ROICexgc(5y)19.88%
ROCE(3y)26.13%
ROCE(5y)23.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexcg growth 5Y35.22%
ROICexc growth 3Y36.15%
ROICexc growth 5Y35.22%
OM growth 3Y33.88%
OM growth 5Y23.52%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y13.67%
GM growth 5Y3.3%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.45
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.98 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.24 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 209.4% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 65.14% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 6.62 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.05% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
F-Score7
WACC9.28%
ROIC/WACC1.92
Cap/Depr(3y)383.04%
Cap/Depr(5y)349.2%
Cap/Sales(3y)82.59%
Cap/Sales(5y)83.74%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-14.31%
EPS 3Y15.13%
EPS 5Y9.73%
EPS Q2Q%-6.16%
EPS Next Y-13.62%
EPS Next 2Y-21.87%
EPS Next 3Y-12.12%
EPS Next 5Y0.5%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)24.84%
Revenue growth 3Y64.84%
Revenue growth 5Y36.34%
Sales Q2Q%26.04%
Revenue Next Year4.07%
Revenue Next 2Y-4.41%
Revenue Next 3Y-1.57%
Revenue Next 5Y2.07%
EBIT growth 1Y34.02%
EBIT growth 3Y120.69%
EBIT growth 5Y68.41%
EBIT Next Year82.42%
EBIT Next 3Y21.92%
EBIT Next 5Y15.47%
FCF growth 1Y55.45%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y26.67%
OCF growth 3Y52.59%
OCF growth 5Y32.9%