VAIL RESORTS INC (MTN) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MTN - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US91879Q1094 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
MTN gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 133 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. There are concerns on the financial health of MTN while its profitability can be described as average. MTN has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. Finally MTN also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MTN was profitable.
MTN had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years MTN has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years MTN had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
MTN has a better Return On Assets (4.69%) than 68.66% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of MTN (48.87%) is better than 94.03% of its industry peers.
MTN has a Return On Invested Capital of 10.29%. This is in the better half of the industry: MTN outperforms 73.88% of its industry peers.
MTN had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.00%. This is significantly below the industry average of 13.97%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (10.29%) for MTN is above the 3 year average (8.00%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.69% | ||
| ROE | 48.87% | ||
| ROIC | 10.29% |
ROA(3y)4.69%
ROA(5y)3.6%
ROE(3y)26.71%
ROE(5y)19.13%
ROIC(3y)8%
ROIC(5y)6.38%
1.3 Margins
MTN's Profit Margin of 8.80% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 70.15% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MTN has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 17.71%, MTN is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 74.63% of the companies in the same industry.
MTN's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
MTN has a Gross Margin (42.81%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of MTN has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.8% | ||
| GM | 42.81% |
OM growth 3Y6.03%
OM growth 5Y-3.64%
PM growth 3Y6.04%
PM growth 5Y-9.64%
GM growth 3Y-0.65%
GM growth 5Y0.79%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MTN is still creating some value.
MTN has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, MTN has less shares outstanding
MTN has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.53, we must say that MTN is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
MTN's Altman-Z score of 1.53 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 50.75% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MTN is 6.80, which is on the high side as it means it would take MTN, 6.80 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
MTN's Debt to FCF ratio of 6.80 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MTN outperforms 73.13% of its industry peers.
MTN has a Debt/Equity ratio of 3.99. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
MTN has a Debt to Equity ratio of 3.99. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MTN outperforms 44.03% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.99 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
ROIC/WACC1.19
WACC8.66%
2.3 Liquidity
MTN has a Current Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that MTN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MTN's Current ratio of 0.47 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MTN is outperformed by 76.12% of its industry peers.
MTN has a Quick Ratio of 0.47. This is a bad value and indicates that MTN is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
MTN's Quick ratio of 0.40 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. MTN is outperformed by 76.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.4 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MTN shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 13.86%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past years, MTN shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -3.88% on average per year.
MTN shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 3.57%.
MTN shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 4.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)13.86%
EPS 3Y25.78%
EPS 5Y-3.88%
EPS Q2Q%13.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.57%
Revenue growth 3Y14.75%
Revenue growth 5Y4.9%
Sales Q2Q%5.48%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MTN will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 13.33% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.68% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y27.05%
EPS Next 2Y15.04%
EPS Next 3Y13.33%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year3.54%
Revenue Next 2Y3.86%
Revenue Next 3Y3.68%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.49, MTN is valued on the expensive side.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of MTN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MTN is cheaper than 63.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
MTN's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 26.25.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 20.07, the valuation of MTN can be described as rather expensive.
MTN's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
MTN's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 22.15.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.07 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MTN indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MTN is cheaper than 65.67% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, MTN is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.09% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.15 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
MTN has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as MTN's earnings are expected to grow with 13.33% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.87
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y15.04%
EPS Next 3Y13.33%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
MTN has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.47%, which is a nice return.
MTN's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.79. MTN pays more dividend than 94.03% of the companies in the same industry.
MTN's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.47% |
5.2 History
The dividend of MTN has a limited annual growth rate of 5.81%.
MTN has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
MTN has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
128.40% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MTN. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of MTN is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP128.4%
EPS Next 2Y15.04%
EPS Next 3Y13.33%
160.17
-2.3 (-1.42%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners106.66%
Inst Owner Change-0.67%
Ins Owners1.14%
Ins Owner Change0.25%
Market Cap5.98B
Analysts68.89
Price Target186.52 (16.45%)
Short Float %5.13%
Short Ratio2.75
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.47% |
Yearly Dividend8.55
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.81%
DP128.4%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)5.74%
Min EPS beat(2)2.92%
Max EPS beat(2)8.57%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.71%
Min EPS beat(4)-9.05%
Max EPS beat(4)8.57%
EPS beat(8)2
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.23%
EPS beat(12)5
Avg EPS beat(12)-1.92%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-1.15%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.17%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.13%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.46%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.73%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.56%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.46%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.04%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.01%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.62%
PT rev (1m)-3.9%
PT rev (3m)-10.48%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-3.15%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.64%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.58%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.34%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.95%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.49 | ||
| Fwd PE | 20.07 | ||
| P/S | 2.03 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.05 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.58 | ||
| P/B | 11.27 | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 10.15 |
EPS(TTM)6.82
EY4.26%
EPS(NY)7.98
Fwd EY4.98%
FCF(TTM)10.64
FCFY6.64%
OCF(TTM)16.72
OCFY10.44%
SpS78.9
BVpS14.21
TBVpS-37.2
PEG (NY)0.87
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.69% | ||
| ROE | 48.87% | ||
| ROCE | 13.94% | ||
| ROIC | 10.29% | ||
| ROICexc | 11.84% | ||
| ROICexgc | 28.84% | ||
| OM | 17.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 8.8% | ||
| GM | 42.81% | ||
| FCFM | 13.49% |
ROA(3y)4.69%
ROA(5y)3.6%
ROE(3y)26.71%
ROE(5y)19.13%
ROIC(3y)8%
ROIC(5y)6.38%
ROICexc(3y)9.28%
ROICexc(5y)7.46%
ROICexgc(3y)17.98%
ROICexgc(5y)14.59%
ROCE(3y)10.84%
ROCE(5y)8.64%
ROICexcg growth 3Y15.03%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-4.88%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.4%
ROICexc growth 5Y-2.28%
OM growth 3Y6.03%
OM growth 5Y-3.64%
PM growth 3Y6.04%
PM growth 5Y-9.64%
GM growth 3Y-0.65%
GM growth 5Y0.79%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover0.53
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 3.99 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.8 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.62 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 79.6% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 7.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 77.36% | ||
| Profit Quality | 153.23% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.47 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.53 |
F-Score8
WACC8.66%
ROIC/WACC1.19
Cap/Depr(3y)90.02%
Cap/Depr(5y)76.93%
Cap/Sales(3y)8.62%
Cap/Sales(5y)8.13%
Profit Quality(3y)144.31%
Profit Quality(5y)195.81%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)13.86%
EPS 3Y25.78%
EPS 5Y-3.88%
EPS Q2Q%13.89%
EPS Next Y27.05%
EPS Next 2Y15.04%
EPS Next 3Y13.33%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.57%
Revenue growth 3Y14.75%
Revenue growth 5Y4.9%
Sales Q2Q%5.48%
Revenue Next Year3.54%
Revenue Next 2Y3.86%
Revenue Next 3Y3.68%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y7.01%
EBIT growth 3Y21.66%
EBIT growth 5Y1.08%
EBIT Next Year69.61%
EBIT Next 3Y22.8%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-8.48%
FCF growth 3Y-2.9%
FCF growth 5Y-3.21%
OCF growth 1Y-11.41%
OCF growth 3Y3.76%
OCF growth 5Y-1.54%