Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MRO • US5658491064

Current stock price

28.55 USD
-0.37 (-1.28%)
At close:
28.5798 USD
+0.03 (+0.1%)
After Hours:

This MRO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. MRO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year MRO was profitable.
  • In the past year MRO had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • MRO had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
  • MRO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
MRO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMRO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B 4B -4B

1.2 Ratios

  • The Return On Assets of MRO (6.85%) is better than 61.46% of its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Equity value of 11.63%, MRO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 51.22% of the companies in the same industry.
  • With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 10.21%, MRO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 67.32% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MRO is significantly below the industry average of 23.05%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.85%
ROE 11.63%
ROIC 10.21%
ROA(3y)10.54%
ROA(5y)5.18%
ROE(3y)18.14%
ROE(5y)8.92%
ROIC(3y)13.87%
ROIC(5y)N/A
MRO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMRO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 20 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 19.79%, MRO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.85% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MRO has grown nicely.
  • Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 29.96%, MRO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.41% of the companies in the same industry.
  • MRO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • The Gross Margin of MRO (86.89%) is better than 92.68% of its industry peers.
  • MRO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 29.96%
PM (TTM) 19.79%
GM 86.89%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y8.4%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y5.86%
GM growth 3Y2.24%
GM growth 5Y0.24%
MRO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMRO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50 -50 -100

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4

2. MRO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • MRO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • MRO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MRO has an improved debt to assets ratio.
MRO Yearly Shares OutstandingMRO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 200M 400M 600M 800M
MRO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMRO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10B 20B 30B

2.2 Solvency

  • MRO has an Altman-Z score of 2.76. This is not the best score and indicates that MRO is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • MRO has a better Altman-Z score (2.76) than 72.68% of its industry peers.
  • MRO has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.33. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as MRO would need 2.33 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • MRO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 2.33. This is in the better half of the industry: MRO outperforms 73.17% of its industry peers.
  • MRO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.42. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of MRO (0.42) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF 2.33
Altman-Z 2.76
ROIC/WACC1.27
WACC8.07%
MRO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMRO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 5B 10B 15B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 0.69 indicates that MRO may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • MRO has a Current ratio of 0.69. This is in the lower half of the industry: MRO underperforms 79.02% of its industry peers.
  • MRO has a Quick Ratio of 0.69. This is a bad value and indicates that MRO is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • MRO has a Quick ratio of 0.61. This is in the lower half of the industry: MRO underperforms 78.05% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.69
Quick Ratio 0.61
MRO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMRO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

3

3. MRO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • MRO shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -10.36%.
  • Measured over the past years, MRO shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 29.38% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has decreased by -0.78% in the past year.
  • MRO shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 1.30% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.36%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y29.38%
EPS Q2Q%-16.88%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.78%
Revenue growth 3Y29.48%
Revenue growth 5Y1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-3.97%

3.2 Future

  • MRO is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -2.56% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, MRO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.14% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-6.75%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%
EPS Next 5Y-2.56%
Revenue Next Year0.06%
Revenue Next 2Y0.04%
Revenue Next 3Y1.14%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
MRO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMRO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2B 4B 6B 8B
MRO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMRO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 1 -1 2 3 4

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5

4. MRO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.37, the valuation of MRO can be described as reasonable.
  • MRO's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • MRO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 25.50, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.12 indicates a correct valuation of MRO.
  • MRO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • MRO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.67, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.37
Fwd PE 12.12
MRO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMRO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, MRO is valued a bit cheaper than 69.27% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of MRO indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: MRO is cheaper than 75.12% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 7.83
EV/EBITDA 4.76
MRO Per share dataMRO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 5 10 15 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • MRO has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as MRO's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.07% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. MRO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • MRO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.54%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • MRO's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.30.
  • MRO's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.54%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of MRO grows each year by 15.43%, which is quite nice.
  • MRO has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • MRO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.43%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
MRO Yearly Dividends per shareMRO Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

5.3 Sustainability

  • 19.02% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MRO. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP19.02%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%
MRO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMRO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2B -2B -4B
MRO Dividend Payout.MRO Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MRO Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MRO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

Marathon Oil Corp

NYSE:MRO (11/21/2024, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 28.5798 +0.03 (+0.1%)

28.55

-0.37 (-1.28%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)11-06
Earnings (Next)02-19
Inst Owners75.7%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.43%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap15.97B
Revenue(TTM)6.72B
Net Income(TTM)1.33B
Analysts73.08
Price Target31.8 (11.38%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.54%
Yearly Dividend0.41
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.43%
DP19.02%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-4.91%
Min EPS beat(2)-10%
Max EPS beat(2)0.17%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)-0.05%
Min EPS beat(4)-10%
Max EPS beat(4)8.86%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)3.02%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)6.61%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)16.49%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.06%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.57%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.46%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.64%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.57%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.44%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.58%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.55%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.13%
PT rev (1m)-1.5%
PT rev (3m)-5.37%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-28.13%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-28.13%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.38%
EPS NY rev (3m)-12.35%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-4.28%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-4.28%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.35%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.12%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.37
Fwd PE 12.12
P/S 2.38
P/FCF 7.83
P/OCF 3.86
P/B 1.4
P/tB 1.4
EV/EBITDA 4.76
EPS(TTM)2.51
EY8.79%
EPS(NY)2.36
Fwd EY8.25%
FCF(TTM)3.65
FCFY12.78%
OCF(TTM)7.39
OCFY25.88%
SpS12.01
BVpS20.44
TBVpS20.44
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.85%
ROE 11.63%
ROCE 11.67%
ROIC 10.21%
ROICexc 10.29%
ROICexgc 10.29%
OM 29.96%
PM (TTM) 19.79%
GM 86.89%
FCFM 30.38%
ROA(3y)10.54%
ROA(5y)5.18%
ROE(3y)18.14%
ROE(5y)8.92%
ROIC(3y)13.87%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)14.15%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)14.15%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)15.81%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y12.25%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y12.37%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y8.4%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y5.86%
GM growth 3Y2.24%
GM growth 5Y0.24%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.35
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.42
Debt/FCF 2.33
Debt/EBITDA 1.11
Cap/Depr 91.92%
Cap/Sales 31.15%
Interest Coverage 7.77
Cash Conversion 96.36%
Profit Quality 153.46%
Current Ratio 0.69
Quick Ratio 0.61
Altman-Z 2.76
F-Score7
WACC8.07%
ROIC/WACC1.27
Cap/Depr(3y)75.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)78.57%
Cap/Sales(3y)22.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)32.44%
Profit Quality(3y)158.04%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-10.36%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y29.38%
EPS Q2Q%-16.88%
EPS Next Y-6.75%
EPS Next 2Y-4.99%
EPS Next 3Y-3.07%
EPS Next 5Y-2.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.78%
Revenue growth 3Y29.48%
Revenue growth 5Y1.3%
Sales Q2Q%-3.97%
Revenue Next Year0.06%
Revenue Next 2Y0.04%
Revenue Next 3Y1.14%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-20.06%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y9.81%
EBIT Next Year90.59%
EBIT Next 3Y24.05%
EBIT Next 5Y14.35%
FCF growth 1Y-49.68%
FCF growth 3Y150.93%
FCF growth 5Y35.42%
OCF growth 1Y-24.1%
OCF growth 3Y40.52%
OCF growth 5Y4.82%

Marathon Oil Corp / MRO Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for MRO stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to MRO.


Can you provide the valuation status for Marathon Oil Corp?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to Marathon Oil Corp (MRO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) stock?

Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What are the PE and PB ratios of Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) is 11.37 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.4.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for MRO stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of Marathon Oil Corp (MRO) is expected to decline by -6.75% in the next year.