MOSAIC CO/THE (MOS) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:MOS - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US61945C1036 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, MOS scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. MOS was compared to 85 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. MOS has an average financial health and profitability rating. MOS is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year MOS was profitable.
MOS had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
MOS had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years MOS always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
MOS has a Return On Assets (1.59%) which is in line with its industry peers.
MOS has a Return On Equity (3.12%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of MOS (2.47%) is worse than 65.88% of its industry peers.
MOS had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.76%. This is in line with the industry average of 6.83%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.76%) for MOS is well above the current ROIC(2.47%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.59% | ||
| ROE | 3.12% | ||
| ROIC | 2.47% |
ROA(3y)7.05%
ROA(5y)6.38%
ROE(3y)13.57%
ROE(5y)12.61%
ROIC(3y)8.76%
ROIC(5y)7.81%
1.3 Margins
MOS has a better Profit Margin (3.32%) than 61.18% of its industry peers.
MOS's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 7.11%, MOS is doing worse than 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
MOS's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 14.47%, MOS is doing worse than 74.12% of the companies in the same industry.
MOS's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 7.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.32% | ||
| GM | 14.47% |
OM growth 3Y-33.55%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y-50.79%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-19.33%
GM growth 5Y6.18%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so MOS is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for MOS has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, MOS has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, MOS has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
MOS has an Altman-Z score of 2.07. This is not the best score and indicates that MOS is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
MOS has a Altman-Z score of 2.07. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: MOS outperforms 54.12% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of MOS is 21.64, which is on the high side as it means it would take MOS, 21.64 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 21.64, MOS is in line with its industry, outperforming 49.41% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.39 indicates that MOS is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.39, MOS is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.59% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.07 |
ROIC/WACC0.3
WACC8.28%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.12 indicates that MOS should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of MOS (1.12) is worse than 84.71% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.44 indicates that MOS may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of MOS (0.44) is worse than 92.94% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
MOS shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -40.91%.
MOS shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 47.88% yearly.
The Revenue for MOS has decreased by -13.37% in the past year. This is quite bad
Measured over the past years, MOS shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.55% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.91%
EPS 3Y-26.76%
EPS 5Y47.88%
EPS Q2Q%-24.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.37%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.45%
Revenue growth 5Y4.55%
Sales Q2Q%-2.18%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, MOS will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.38% on average per year.
MOS is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.66% yearly.
EPS Next Y49.26%
EPS Next 2Y19.08%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%
EPS Next 5Y11.38%
Revenue Next Year14.92%
Revenue Next 2Y6.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5Y2.66%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 20.43, the valuation of MOS can be described as rather expensive.
MOS's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
MOS's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.69.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.24, MOS is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, MOS is valued a bit cheaper than 64.71% of the companies in the same industry.
MOS is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 37.36, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.24 |
4.2 Price Multiples
74.12% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than MOS, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of MOS is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 55.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.99 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
MOS's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
PEG (NY)0.41
PEG (5Y)0.43
EPS Next 2Y19.08%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.50%, MOS has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.64, MOS pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, MOS has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of MOS grows each year by 36.86%, which is quite nice.
MOS has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)36.86%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
MOS pays out 73.93% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
MOS's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP73.93%
EPS Next 2Y19.08%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%
37.18
+1.28 (+3.57%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.38%
Inst Owner Change-0.83%
Ins Owners0.28%
Ins Owner Change-4.17%
Market Cap11.79B
Analysts76.52
Price Target40.47 (8.85%)
Short Float %3.99%
Short Ratio2.27
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.5% |
Yearly Dividend0.84
Dividend Growth(5Y)36.86%
DP73.93%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.72%
Min EPS beat(2)-21.92%
Max EPS beat(2)8.48%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-17.62%
Min EPS beat(4)-37.77%
Max EPS beat(4)8.48%
EPS beat(8)1
Avg EPS beat(8)-13.77%
EPS beat(12)1
Avg EPS beat(12)-13.6%
EPS beat(16)2
Avg EPS beat(16)-10.11%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.34%
Min Revenue beat(2)-4.22%
Max Revenue beat(2)-2.46%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-5.92%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.08%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.46%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.93%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.42%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-2.15%
PT rev (1m)3.91%
PT rev (3m)22.24%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.23%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.43%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.3%
EPS NY rev (3m)19.63%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.97%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)3.1%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.4%
Revenue NY rev (3m)6.09%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.24 | ||
| P/S | 1.07 | ||
| P/FCF | 55.5 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.29 | ||
| P/B | 1 | ||
| P/tB | 1.1 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.99 |
EPS(TTM)1.82
EY4.9%
EPS(NY)2.81
Fwd EY7.55%
FCF(TTM)0.67
FCFY1.8%
OCF(TTM)4.48
OCFY12.06%
SpS34.88
BVpS37.11
TBVpS33.75
PEG (NY)0.41
PEG (5Y)0.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.59% | ||
| ROE | 3.12% | ||
| ROCE | 4.13% | ||
| ROIC | 2.47% | ||
| ROICexc | 2.5% | ||
| ROICexgc | 2.64% | ||
| OM | 7.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 3.32% | ||
| GM | 14.47% | ||
| FCFM | 1.92% |
ROA(3y)7.05%
ROA(5y)6.38%
ROE(3y)13.57%
ROE(5y)12.61%
ROIC(3y)8.76%
ROIC(5y)7.81%
ROICexc(3y)9.06%
ROICexc(5y)8.11%
ROICexgc(3y)9.66%
ROICexgc(5y)8.67%
ROCE(3y)13.98%
ROCE(5y)12.46%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-39.11%
ROICexcg growth 5Y3.45%
ROICexc growth 3Y-38.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y3.81%
OM growth 3Y-33.55%
OM growth 5Y2.83%
PM growth 3Y-50.79%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-19.33%
GM growth 5Y6.18%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.39 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 21.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.52 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 117.73% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 10.93% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.34 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.37% | ||
| Profit Quality | 57.78% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.12 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.44 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.07 |
F-Score4
WACC8.28%
ROIC/WACC0.3
Cap/Depr(3y)133.87%
Cap/Depr(5y)139.65%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.39%
Profit Quality(3y)62.8%
Profit Quality(5y)61.07%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-40.91%
EPS 3Y-26.76%
EPS 5Y47.88%
EPS Q2Q%-24.62%
EPS Next Y49.26%
EPS Next 2Y19.08%
EPS Next 3Y8.52%
EPS Next 5Y11.38%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-13.37%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.45%
Revenue growth 5Y4.55%
Sales Q2Q%-2.18%
Revenue Next Year14.92%
Revenue Next 2Y6.37%
Revenue Next 3Y3.85%
Revenue Next 5Y2.66%
EBIT growth 1Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 3Y-35.84%
EBIT growth 5Y7.5%
EBIT Next Year146.92%
EBIT Next 3Y31.13%
EBIT Next 5Y17.84%
FCF growth 1Y-90.76%
FCF growth 3Y-62.49%
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-60.26%
OCF growth 3Y-15.94%
OCF growth 5Y3.47%