M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:MDC • US5526761086

Current stock price

62.98 USD
+0.03 (+0.05%)
At close:
62.98 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This MDC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. MDC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • MDC had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year MDC had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • Each year in the past 5 years MDC has been profitable.
  • The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: MDC reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
MDC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFMDC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M 600M 800M

1.2 Ratios

  • MDC has a Return On Assets of 7.08%. This is in the better half of the industry: MDC outperforms 62.69% of its industry peers.
  • MDC has a Return On Equity (11.81%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • With a Return On Invested Capital value of 6.75%, MDC perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.24% of the companies in the same industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for MDC is above the industry average of 9.21%.
  • The last Return On Invested Capital (6.75%) for MDC is well below the 3 year average (11.24%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that MDC had better years and this may not be a problem.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.08%
ROE 11.81%
ROIC 6.75%
ROA(3y)9.67%
ROA(5y)9.11%
ROE(3y)17.29%
ROE(5y)16.48%
ROIC(3y)11.24%
ROIC(5y)10.2%
MDC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICMDC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 10 15 20

1.3 Margins

  • With a decent Profit Margin value of 8.59%, MDC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.66% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of MDC has grown nicely.
  • MDC's Operating Margin of 10.03% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MDC outperforms 61.19% of its industry peers.
  • MDC's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • MDC has a Gross Margin of 19.29%. This is amonst the worse of the industry: MDC underperforms 82.09% of its industry peers.
  • MDC's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 10.03%
PM (TTM) 8.59%
GM 19.29%
OM growth 3Y-5.46%
OM growth 5Y1.73%
PM growth 3Y-2.84%
PM growth 5Y4.67%
GM growth 3Y-4.58%
GM growth 5Y-0.69%
MDC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsMDC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5 10 15 20 25

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6

2. MDC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), MDC is creating some value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, MDC has more shares outstanding
  • MDC has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
MDC Yearly Shares OutstandingMDC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M
MDC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsMDC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 3.68 indicates that MDC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • MDC's Altman-Z score of 3.68 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. MDC outperforms 62.69% of its industry peers.
  • MDC has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.28. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as MDC would need 3.28 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • MDC's Debt to FCF ratio of 3.28 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. MDC outperforms 52.24% of its industry peers.
  • MDC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.50. This is a neutral value indicating MDC is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
  • MDC has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (0.50) than 61.19% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.5
Debt/FCF 3.28
Altman-Z 3.68
ROIC/WACC0.73
WACC9.28%
MDC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFMDC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

  • MDC has a Current Ratio of 7.70. This indicates that MDC is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of MDC (7.70) is better than 85.07% of its industry peers.
  • MDC has a Quick Ratio of 2.69. This indicates that MDC is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.69, MDC belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.54% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 7.7
Quick Ratio 2.69
MDC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesMDC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

4

3. MDC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for MDC have decreased strongly by -31.16% in the last year.
  • MDC shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 10.85% yearly.
  • MDC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has decreased by -18.80%.
  • MDC shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 8.66% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.16%
EPS 3Y0.91%
EPS 5Y10.85%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-18.8%
Revenue growth 3Y5.97%
Revenue growth 5Y8.66%
Sales Q2Q%-11.39%

3.2 Future

  • MDC is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 2.76% yearly.
  • MDC is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.39% yearly.
EPS Next Y-1.74%
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.2%
Revenue Next 2Y7.39%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
MDC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesMDC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1B 2B 3B 4B 5B
MDC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesMDC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 4 6 8

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5

4. MDC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.93, the valuation of MDC can be described as reasonable.
  • MDC's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 24.89, MDC is valued rather cheaply.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.14 indicates a correct valuation of MDC.
  • The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as MDC.
  • MDC's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.19.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.93
Fwd PE 12.14
MDC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsMDC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of MDC is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • MDC's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. MDC is cheaper than 68.66% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 9.12
EV/EBITDA 9.33
MDC Per share dataMDC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 20 40 60

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The decent profitability rating of MDC may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.1
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

7

5. MDC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • MDC has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.49%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.31, MDC pays a better dividend. On top of this MDC pays more dividend than 88.06% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.89, MDC pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.49%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of MDC grows each year by 15.41%, which is quite nice.
  • MDC has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • MDC has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.41%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years6
MDC Yearly Dividends per shareMDC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0.5 1 1.5 2

5.3 Sustainability

  • 38.93% of the earnings are spent on dividend by MDC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of MDC is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP38.93%
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
MDC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendMDC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M 400M 600M 800M
MDC Dividend Payout.MDC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.MDC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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MDC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

M D C Holdings Inc

NYSE:MDC (4/18/2024, 8:07:10 PM)

After market: 62.98 0 (0%)

62.98

+0.03 (+0.05%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Durables & Apparel
GICS IndustryHousehold Durables
Earnings (Last)04-25
Earnings (Next)07-25
Inst Owners26.27%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap4.73B
Revenue(TTM)4.64B
Net Income(TTM)398.81M
Analysts48.33
Price Target58.14 (-7.68%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 3.49%
Yearly Dividend2.11
Dividend Growth(5Y)15.41%
DP38.93%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)9.26%
Min EPS beat(2)3.38%
Max EPS beat(2)15.13%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)44.26%
Min EPS beat(4)3.38%
Max EPS beat(4)93.72%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)17.75%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)12.15%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)14.32%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Max Revenue beat(2)3.41%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)9.71%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.9%
Max Revenue beat(4)20.29%
Revenue beat(8)7
Avg Revenue beat(8)7.44%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.75%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.81%
PT rev (1m)-3.39%
PT rev (3m)8.37%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.76%
EPS NQ rev (3m)9.52%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.2%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)8.96%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)12.73%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.12%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.36%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 11.93
Fwd PE 12.14
P/S 1.02
P/FCF 9.12
P/OCF 8.42
P/B 1.4
P/tB 1.4
EV/EBITDA 9.33
EPS(TTM)5.28
EY8.38%
EPS(NY)5.19
Fwd EY8.24%
FCF(TTM)6.91
FCFY10.97%
OCF(TTM)7.48
OCFY11.88%
SpS61.86
BVpS45.01
TBVpS44.93
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.1
Graham NumberN/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 7.08%
ROE 11.81%
ROCE 9.36%
ROIC 6.75%
ROICexc 9.88%
ROICexgc 10.89%
OM 10.03%
PM (TTM) 8.59%
GM 19.29%
FCFM 11.17%
ROA(3y)9.67%
ROA(5y)9.11%
ROE(3y)17.29%
ROE(5y)16.48%
ROIC(3y)11.24%
ROIC(5y)10.2%
ROICexc(3y)13.75%
ROICexc(5y)12.3%
ROICexgc(3y)15.03%
ROICexgc(5y)13.54%
ROCE(3y)15.67%
ROCE(5y)14.28%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-6.21%
ROICexgc growth 5Y1.48%
ROICexc growth 3Y-5.69%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.3%
OM growth 3Y-5.46%
OM growth 5Y1.73%
PM growth 3Y-2.84%
PM growth 5Y4.67%
GM growth 3Y-4.58%
GM growth 5Y-0.69%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.82
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.5
Debt/FCF 3.28
Debt/EBITDA 3.46
Cap/Depr 168.85%
Cap/Sales 0.93%
Interest Coverage 507.7
Cash Conversion 114.36%
Profit Quality 130.01%
Current Ratio 7.7
Quick Ratio 2.69
Altman-Z 3.68
F-Score5
WACC9.28%
ROIC/WACC0.73
Cap/Depr(3y)122.4%
Cap/Depr(5y)114.53%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.67%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.69%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-31.16%
EPS 3Y0.91%
EPS 5Y10.85%
EPS Q2Q%44.44%
EPS Next Y-1.74%
EPS Next 2Y2.76%
EPS Next 3YN/A
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-18.8%
Revenue growth 3Y5.97%
Revenue growth 5Y8.66%
Sales Q2Q%-11.39%
Revenue Next Year6.2%
Revenue Next 2Y7.39%
Revenue Next 3YN/A
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-48.03%
EBIT growth 3Y0.19%
EBIT growth 5Y10.54%
EBIT Next Year47.13%
EBIT Next 3YN/A
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-40.85%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-37.98%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A

M D C Holdings Inc / MDC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to MDC.


What is the valuation status for MDC stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to M D C Holdings Inc (MDC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for M D C Holdings Inc?

M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


How financially healthy is M D C Holdings Inc?

The financial health rating of M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) is 6 / 10.


What is the expected EPS growth for M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of M D C Holdings Inc (MDC) is expected to decline by -1.74% in the next year.