WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:HCC • US93627C1018

Current stock price

89.36 USD
-3.65 (-3.92%)
At close:
89.36 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This HCC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. HCC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year HCC was profitable.
  • In the past year HCC had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In the past 5 years HCC has always been profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years HCC had a positive operating cash flow.
HCC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFHCC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M 800M

1.2 Ratios

  • HCC's Return On Assets of 2.05% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 62.42% of its industry peers.
  • HCC has a Return On Equity of 2.66%. This is in the better half of the industry: HCC outperforms 61.78% of its industry peers.
  • HCC has a Return On Invested Capital (1.60%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for HCC is significantly below the industry average of 61.64%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (10.97%) for HCC is well above the current ROIC(1.60%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.05%
ROE 2.66%
ROIC 1.6%
ROA(3y)10.67%
ROA(5y)14.79%
ROE(3y)13.39%
ROE(5y)20.36%
ROIC(3y)10.97%
ROIC(5y)18.4%
HCC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICHCC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60 80 100

1.3 Margins

  • The Profit Margin of HCC (4.35%) is better than 65.61% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HCC has declined.
  • HCC's Operating Margin of 3.49% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 52.87% of its industry peers.
  • HCC's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • HCC has a Gross Margin (22.90%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • HCC's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.49%
PM (TTM) 4.35%
GM 22.9%
OM growth 3Y-58.3%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-50.96%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-26.46%
GM growth 5Y7.68%
HCC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsHCC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40

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5

2. HCC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HCC is destroying value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, HCC has more shares outstanding
  • HCC has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, HCC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
HCC Yearly Shares OutstandingHCC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M
HCC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsHCC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 6.31 indicates that HCC is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • With a decent Altman-Z score value of 6.31, HCC is doing good in the industry, outperforming 70.06% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.11 indicates that HCC is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • The Debt to Equity ratio of HCC (0.11) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.11
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 6.31
ROIC/WACC0.12
WACC13.04%
HCC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFHCC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 3.19 indicates that HCC has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • HCC's Current ratio of 3.19 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 66.88% of its industry peers.
  • A Quick Ratio of 2.27 indicates that HCC has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.27, HCC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.78% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.19
Quick Ratio 2.27
HCC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesHCC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

6

3. HCC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for HCC have decreased strongly by -77.89% in the last year.
  • HCC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -56.05% yearly.
  • Looking at the last year, HCC shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -14.11% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, HCC shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 10.85% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-77.89%
EPS 3Y-56.05%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%193.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.11%
Revenue growth 3Y-9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.85%
Sales Q2Q%29.09%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 108.98% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 21.30% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
EPS Next Y513.21%
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year58.5%
Revenue Next 2Y31.33%
Revenue Next 3Y21.3%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
HCC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesHCC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 500M 1B 1.5B 2B
HCC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesHCC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 5 10

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5

4. HCC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • The Price/Earnings ratio is 81.98, which means the current valuation is very expensive for HCC.
  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of HCC is on the same level as its industry peers.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.91, HCC is valued quite expensively.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.37, the valuation of HCC can be described as correct.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HCC is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 71.97% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.69, HCC is valued a bit cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 81.98
Fwd PE 13.37
HCC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsHCC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

  • 61.15% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than HCC, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 20.38
HCC Per share dataHCC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • HCC has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A more expensive valuation may be justified as HCC's earnings are expected to grow with 108.98% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)0.16
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. HCC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • HCC has a yearly dividend return of 0.32%, which is pretty low.
  • HCC's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.16.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.89, HCC's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.32%

5.2 History

  • On average, the dividend of HCC grows each year by 11.30%, which is quite nice.
  • HCC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.3%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
HCC Yearly Dividends per shareHCC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 4 6 8 10

5.3 Sustainability

  • 31.27% of the earnings are spent on dividend by HCC. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of HCC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP31.27%
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%
HCC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendHCC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M
HCC Dividend Payout.HCC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.HCC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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HCC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

WARRIOR MET COAL INC

NYSE:HCC (4/8/2026, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 89.36 0 (0%)

89.36

-3.65 (-3.92%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)02-12
Earnings (Next)04-28
Inst Owners107.61%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners2.1%
Ins Owner Change-6.42%
Market Cap4.72B
Revenue(TTM)1.31B
Net Income(TTM)57.00M
Analysts78.33
Price Target106.64 (19.34%)
Short Float %6.62%
Short Ratio3.42
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.32%
Yearly Dividend0.34
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.3%
DP31.27%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date02-23
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)143.96%
Min EPS beat(2)-21.03%
Max EPS beat(2)308.94%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-710.02%
Min EPS beat(4)-3268.32%
Max EPS beat(4)308.94%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-360.72%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)-237.01%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-177.22%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.33%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.9%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.23%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.9%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.78%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.79%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.85%
PT rev (1m)1.78%
PT rev (3m)23.41%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)22.59%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)21.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.54%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)15.43%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.8%
Revenue NY rev (3m)9.33%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 81.98
Fwd PE 13.37
P/S 3.6
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 20.58
P/B 2.2
P/tB 2.2
EV/EBITDA 20.38
EPS(TTM)1.09
EY1.22%
EPS(NY)6.68
Fwd EY7.48%
FCF(TTM)-3.28
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)4.34
OCFY4.86%
SpS24.81
BVpS40.56
TBVpS40.56
PEG (NY)0.16
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number31.54
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.05%
ROE 2.66%
ROCE 1.81%
ROIC 1.6%
ROICexc 1.86%
ROICexgc 1.86%
OM 3.49%
PM (TTM) 4.35%
GM 22.9%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)10.67%
ROA(5y)14.79%
ROE(3y)13.39%
ROE(5y)20.36%
ROIC(3y)10.97%
ROIC(5y)18.4%
ROICexc(3y)15.62%
ROICexc(5y)29.29%
ROICexgc(3y)15.62%
ROICexgc(5y)29.29%
ROCE(3y)12.41%
ROCE(5y)20.83%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-70.35%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-70.35%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-58.3%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-50.96%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-26.46%
GM growth 5Y7.68%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.11
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 0.99
Cap/Depr 213.29%
Cap/Sales 30.7%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 97.85%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 3.19
Quick Ratio 2.27
Altman-Z 6.31
F-Score3
WACC13.04%
ROIC/WACC0.12
Cap/Depr(3y)314.15%
Cap/Depr(5y)242.68%
Cap/Sales(3y)31.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.08%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-77.89%
EPS 3Y-56.05%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%193.33%
EPS Next Y513.21%
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.11%
Revenue growth 3Y-9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.85%
Sales Q2Q%29.09%
Revenue Next Year58.5%
Revenue Next 2Y31.33%
Revenue Next 3Y21.3%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-82.1%
EBIT growth 3Y-62.06%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year1270.54%
EBIT Next 3Y157.29%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-43.13%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-37.61%
OCF growth 3Y-35.18%
OCF growth 5Y15.28%

WARRIOR MET COAL INC / HCC Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HCC.


Can you provide the valuation status for WARRIOR MET COAL INC?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) stock?

WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for HCC stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) is 81.98 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 2.2.


Can you provide the financial health for HCC stock?

The financial health rating of WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) is 5 / 10.