WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:HCC • US93627C1018

78.94 USD
+1.58 (+2.04%)
At close: Mar 9, 2026
78.94 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours: 3/9/2026, 7:04:12 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Forecast Earnings Financials Ownership News

This HCC fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

6

Overall HCC gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated HCC against 157 industry peers in the Metals & Mining industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of HCC get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. HCC is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

6

1. HCC Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • HCC had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year HCC had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In the past 5 years HCC has always been profitable.
  • Each year in the past 5 years HCC had a positive operating cash flow.
HCC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFHCC Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M 800M

1.2 Ratios

  • HCC's Return On Assets of 2.05% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 62.42% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 2.66%, HCC is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 62.42% of the companies in the same industry.
  • HCC's Return On Invested Capital of 1.60% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 52.23% of its industry peers.
  • HCC had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.97%. This is in line with the industry average of 11.53%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (10.97%) for HCC is well above the current ROIC(1.60%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.05%
ROE 2.66%
ROIC 1.6%
ROA(3y)10.67%
ROA(5y)14.79%
ROE(3y)13.39%
ROE(5y)20.36%
ROIC(3y)10.97%
ROIC(5y)18.4%
HCC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICHCC Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 40 60 80 100

1.3 Margins

  • HCC has a Profit Margin of 4.35%. This is in the better half of the industry: HCC outperforms 66.24% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of HCC has declined.
  • HCC's Operating Margin of 3.49% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 54.14% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of HCC has declined.
  • HCC's Gross Margin of 22.90% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. HCC outperforms 60.51% of its industry peers.
  • HCC's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 3.49%
PM (TTM) 4.35%
GM 22.9%
OM growth 3Y-58.3%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-50.96%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-26.46%
GM growth 5Y7.68%
HCC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsHCC Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20 -20 40

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5

2. HCC Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so HCC is still creating some value.
  • HCC has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
  • HCC has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, HCC has a worse debt to assets ratio.
HCC Yearly Shares OutstandingHCC Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M
HCC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsHCC Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

2.2 Solvency

  • HCC has an Altman-Z score of 5.52. This indicates that HCC is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
  • HCC has a Altman-Z score of 5.52. This is in the better half of the industry: HCC outperforms 65.61% of its industry peers.
  • HCC has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.11. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • HCC has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.11. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: HCC outperforms 57.96% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.11
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 5.52
ROIC/WACC0.15
WACC10.9%
HCC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFHCC Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 3.19 indicates that HCC has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
  • The Current ratio of HCC (3.19) is better than 70.06% of its industry peers.
  • HCC has a Quick Ratio of 2.27. This indicates that HCC is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
  • The Quick ratio of HCC (2.27) is better than 63.06% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 3.19
Quick Ratio 2.27
HCC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesHCC Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

6

3. HCC Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • HCC shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -77.89%.
  • Measured over the past years, HCC shows a very negative growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -56.05% on average per year.
  • The Revenue for HCC has decreased by -14.11% in the past year. This is quite bad
  • HCC shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 10.85% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-77.89%
EPS 3Y-56.05%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%193.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.11%
Revenue growth 3Y-9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.85%
Sales Q2Q%29.09%

3.2 Future

  • HCC is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 108.98% yearly.
  • The Revenue is expected to grow by 21.38% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
EPS Next Y513.21%
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year59.79%
Revenue Next 2Y32.91%
Revenue Next 3Y21.38%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
HCC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesHCC Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 500M 1B 1.5B 2B
HCC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesHCC Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 5 10

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5

4. HCC Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 72.42, the valuation of HCC can be described as expensive.
  • HCC's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.46, HCC is valued quite expensively.
  • With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.81, the valuation of HCC can be described as very reasonable.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, HCC is valued a bit cheaper than 77.71% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 24.65, HCC is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 72.42
Fwd PE 11.81
HCC Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsHCC Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of HCC indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: HCC is cheaper than 65.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 16.78
HCC Per share dataHCC EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20 30 40

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • HCC has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • HCC's earnings are expected to grow with 108.98% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.14
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. HCC Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • HCC has a yearly dividend return of 0.40%, which is pretty low.
  • HCC's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 1.06.
  • With a Dividend Yield of 0.40, HCC pays less dividend than the S&P500 average, which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.4%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of HCC is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 11.30%!
  • HCC has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.3%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
HCC Yearly Dividends per shareHCC Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 4 6 8 10

5.3 Sustainability

  • HCC pays out 31.27% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of HCC is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP31.27%
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%
HCC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendHCC Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 200M 400M 600M
HCC Dividend Payout.HCC Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.HCC Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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HCC Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

WARRIOR MET COAL INC

NYSE:HCC (3/9/2026, 7:04:12 PM)

After market: 78.94 0 (0%)

78.94

+1.58 (+2.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryMetals & Mining
Earnings (Last)02-12
Earnings (Next)04-28
Inst Owners107.61%
Inst Owner Change-9.75%
Ins Owners2.1%
Ins Owner Change-6.42%
Market Cap4.15B
Revenue(TTM)1.31B
Net Income(TTM)57.00M
Analysts78.33
Price Target104.77 (32.72%)
Short Float %7.46%
Short Ratio4.04
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 0.4%
Yearly Dividend0.34
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.3%
DP31.27%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date02-23
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)143.96%
Min EPS beat(2)-21.03%
Max EPS beat(2)308.94%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-710.02%
Min EPS beat(4)-3268.32%
Max EPS beat(4)308.94%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-360.72%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)-237.01%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)-177.22%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)3.33%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.23%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.9%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.23%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.9%
Revenue beat(8)6
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.78%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)2.79%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.85%
PT rev (1m)9.77%
PT rev (3m)25.04%
EPS NQ rev (1m)29.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)29.79%
EPS NY rev (1m)26.59%
EPS NY rev (3m)23.58%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)23.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)17.69%
Revenue NY rev (1m)7.91%
Revenue NY rev (3m)10.68%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 72.42
Fwd PE 11.81
P/S 3.17
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 18.1
P/B 1.94
P/tB 1.94
EV/EBITDA 16.78
EPS(TTM)1.09
EY1.38%
EPS(NY)6.68
Fwd EY8.47%
FCF(TTM)-3.29
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)4.36
OCFY5.52%
SpS24.92
BVpS40.73
TBVpS40.73
PEG (NY)0.14
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number31.61
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 2.05%
ROE 2.66%
ROCE 1.81%
ROIC 1.6%
ROICexc 1.86%
ROICexgc 1.86%
OM 3.49%
PM (TTM) 4.35%
GM 22.9%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)10.67%
ROA(5y)14.79%
ROE(3y)13.39%
ROE(5y)20.36%
ROIC(3y)10.97%
ROIC(5y)18.4%
ROICexc(3y)15.62%
ROICexc(5y)29.29%
ROICexgc(3y)15.62%
ROICexgc(5y)29.29%
ROCE(3y)12.41%
ROCE(5y)20.83%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-70.35%
ROICexgc growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3Y-70.35%
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3Y-58.3%
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3Y-50.96%
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-26.46%
GM growth 5Y7.68%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.11
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 0.99
Cap/Depr 213.29%
Cap/Sales 30.7%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 97.85%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 3.19
Quick Ratio 2.27
Altman-Z 5.52
F-Score3
WACC10.9%
ROIC/WACC0.15
Cap/Depr(3y)314.15%
Cap/Depr(5y)242.68%
Cap/Sales(3y)31.34%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.08%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-77.89%
EPS 3Y-56.05%
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%193.33%
EPS Next Y513.21%
EPS Next 2Y185.85%
EPS Next 3Y108.98%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-14.11%
Revenue growth 3Y-9%
Revenue growth 5Y10.85%
Sales Q2Q%29.09%
Revenue Next Year59.79%
Revenue Next 2Y32.91%
Revenue Next 3Y21.38%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-82.1%
EBIT growth 3Y-62.06%
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year1270.54%
EBIT Next 3Y157.29%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-43.13%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-37.61%
OCF growth 3Y-35.18%
OCF growth 5Y15.28%

WARRIOR MET COAL INC / HCC FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to HCC.


Can you provide the valuation status for WARRIOR MET COAL INC?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


What is the profitability of HCC stock?

WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


What is the earnings growth outlook for WARRIOR MET COAL INC?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) is expected to grow by 513.21% in the next year.


Can you provide the dividend sustainability for HCC stock?

The dividend rating of WARRIOR MET COAL INC (HCC) is 5 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 31.27%.