GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GPK - US3886891015 - Common Stock
17.05 USD
+1.39 (+8.88%)
17.045 USD
0 (-0.03%)
Taking everything into account, GPK scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GPK was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. GPK is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 4.53%, GPK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 16.59%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a better Return On Invested Capital (7.88%) than 77.27% of its industry peers.
GPK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.05%. This is above the industry average of 7.60%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.53% | ||
| ROE | 16.59% | ||
| ROIC | 7.88% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK's Profit Margin of 6.18% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of GPK (11.73%) is better than 77.27% of its industry peers.
GPK's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of GPK (21.23%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GPK's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.73% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.18% | ||
| GM | 21.23% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GPK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
GPK has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.61, we must say that GPK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.61, GPK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.68. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.68, GPK is not doing good in the industry: 63.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.61 |
ROIC/WACC1.04
WACC7.59%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.43 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.43, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.56 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.56, GPK is not doing good in the industry: 86.36% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.56 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -21.45%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 23.12% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has decreased by -5.05% in the past year.
GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.41% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.45%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-30%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.05%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.48%
3.2 Future
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 7.32% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.37% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-17.84%
EPS Next 2Y-5.41%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
EPS Next 5Y7.32%
Revenue Next Year-3.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.12%
Revenue Next 3Y0.13%
Revenue Next 5Y1.37%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 7.89, the valuation of GPK can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 95.45% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.03. GPK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.65, the valuation of GPK can be described as very cheap.
GPK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.27, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.65 |
4.2 Price Multiples
86.36% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.67 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GPK may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.34
EPS Next 2Y-5.41%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.74%.
The stock price of GPK dropped by -25.02% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
GPK's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.54.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, GPK has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.74% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
As GPK did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
23.22% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
GPK's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP23.22%
EPS Next 2Y-5.41%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
17.05
+1.39 (+8.88%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners112.92%
Inst Owner Change-0.96%
Ins Owners0.92%
Ins Owner Change-24.45%
Market Cap5.05B
Revenue(TTM)8.63B
Net Income(TTM)534.00M
Analysts75.29
Price Target24.11 (41.41%)
Short Float %8.19%
Short Ratio6.41
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.74% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP23.22%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-5.44%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)2.84%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.12%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)2.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.68%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)1.92%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.95%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.28%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.24%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.02%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.24%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.7%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.31%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.24%
PT rev (1m)-8.18%
PT rev (3m)-7.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-4.74%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-3.43%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.64%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.64%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.64%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.2%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.54%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.89 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.65 | ||
| P/S | 0.58 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 6.56 | ||
| P/B | 1.57 | ||
| P/tB | 11.05 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.67 |
EPS(TTM)2.16
EY12.67%
EPS(NY)2.23
Fwd EY13.07%
FCF(TTM)-1.33
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.6
OCFY15.24%
SpS29.15
BVpS10.86
TBVpS1.54
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.34
Graham Number22.98
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.53% | ||
| ROE | 16.59% | ||
| ROCE | 10.42% | ||
| ROIC | 7.88% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.98% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.19% | ||
| OM | 11.73% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.18% | ||
| GM | 21.23% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexgc growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexgc growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.73
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.49 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 216.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.48% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 49.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.56 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.61 |
F-Score4
WACC7.59%
ROIC/WACC1.04
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.45%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-30%
EPS Next Y-17.84%
EPS Next 2Y-5.41%
EPS Next 3Y1.57%
EPS Next 5Y7.32%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.05%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.48%
Revenue Next Year-3.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.12%
Revenue Next 3Y0.13%
Revenue Next 5Y1.37%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.93%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year25.31%
EBIT Next 3Y11.48%
EBIT Next 5Y9.02%
FCF growth 1Y-175.77%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-29.55%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO / GPK FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for GPK stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to GPK.
Can you provide the valuation status for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
What is the profitability of GPK stock?
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
Can you provide the financial health for GPK stock?
The financial health rating of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is 2 / 10.
How sustainable is the dividend of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) stock?
The dividend rating of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 23.22%.