GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:GPK • US3886891015

Current stock price

9.23 USD
-0.11 (-1.18%)
At close:
9.27 USD
+0.04 (+0.43%)
After Hours:

This GPK fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

6

1. GPK Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • GPK had positive earnings in the past year.
  • GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years GPK has been profitable.
  • In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
GPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

  • GPK has a Return On Assets (3.77%) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of GPK (13.31%) is better than 63.64% of its industry peers.
  • GPK has a Return On Invested Capital (6.74%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GPK is in line with the industry average of 7.18%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.77%
ROE 13.31%
ROIC 6.74%
ROA(3y)5.38%
ROA(5y)4.63%
ROE(3y)20.38%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)9.09%
ROIC(5y)8.3%
GPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20 25

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.15%, GPK is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
  • GPK's Operating Margin of 9.93% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 59.09% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
  • GPK's Gross Margin of 18.72% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 77.27% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.93%
PM (TTM) 5.15%
GM 18.72%
OM growth 3Y-3.51%
OM growth 5Y2.16%
PM growth 3Y-2.33%
PM growth 5Y15.1%
GM growth 3Y-1.29%
GM growth 5Y2.22%
GPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20

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2

2. GPK Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GPK is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
  • GPK has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
GPK Yearly Shares OutstandingGPK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M
GPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

  • GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.43. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.43, GPK is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.51, GPK is doing worse than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.51
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.43
ROIC/WACC1
WACC6.71%
GPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • GPK has a Current Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that GPK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.30, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 0.52 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.52, GPK is doing worse than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.3
Quick Ratio 0.52
GPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

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3

3. GPK Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -27.71%.
  • Measured over the past years, GPK shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 10.15% on average per year.
  • GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -2.16%.
  • The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.61% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.71%
EPS 3Y-8.37%
EPS 5Y10.15%
EPS Q2Q%-50.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.16%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.99%
Revenue growth 5Y5.61%
Sales Q2Q%0.38%

3.2 Future

  • GPK is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 1.61% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 1.04% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-39.1%
EPS Next 2Y-13.71%
EPS Next 3Y-9.4%
EPS Next 5Y1.61%
Revenue Next Year-0.85%
Revenue Next 2Y0.06%
Revenue Next 3Y0.45%
Revenue Next 5Y1.04%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
GPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
GPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

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6

4. GPK Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • GPK is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5.13.
  • 100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
  • GPK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 24.88, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
  • GPK is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.42.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.45% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.19. GPK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 5.13
Fwd PE 8.42
GPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.91% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.76
GPK Per share dataGPK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15 20 25

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The decent profitability rating of GPK may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • A cheap valuation may be justified as GPK's earnings are expected to decrease with -9.40% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.51
EPS Next 2Y-13.71%
EPS Next 3Y-9.4%

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8

5. GPK Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.71%, which is a nice return.
  • The stock price of GPK dropped by -39.24% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
  • GPK's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.62. GPK pays more dividend than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GPK's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.89.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.71%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 3.14%.
  • GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.14%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
GPK Yearly Dividends per shareGPK Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

5.3 Sustainability

  • GPK pays out 28.83% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • GPK's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP28.83%
EPS Next 2Y-13.71%
EPS Next 3Y-9.4%
GPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendGPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M
GPK Dividend Payout.GPK Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.GPK Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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GPK Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

NYSE:GPK (3/27/2026, 8:22:32 PM)

After market: 9.27 +0.04 (+0.43%)

9.23

-0.11 (-1.18%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners117.25%
Inst Owner Change5.48%
Ins Owners0.33%
Ins Owner Change2.7%
Market Cap2.73B
Revenue(TTM)8.62B
Net Income(TTM)444.00M
Analysts67.5
Price Target16.89 (82.99%)
Short Float %11.77%
Short Ratio5.25
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.71%
Yearly Dividend0.43
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.14%
DP28.83%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date03-13
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-8.63%
Min EPS beat(2)-20.09%
Max EPS beat(2)2.82%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-7.04%
Min EPS beat(4)-20.09%
Max EPS beat(4)2.84%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-4.11%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.96%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)3.08%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.35%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.24%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.24%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.6%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.06%
PT rev (1m)-4.33%
PT rev (3m)-18.13%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-37.56%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-77.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)-40.06%
EPS NY rev (3m)-42.94%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.04%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.11%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.63%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 5.13
Fwd PE 8.42
P/S 0.32
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.25
P/B 0.82
P/tB 4.54
EV/EBITDA 5.76
EPS(TTM)1.8
EY19.5%
EPS(NY)1.1
Fwd EY11.88%
FCF(TTM)-0.27
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.84
OCFY30.81%
SpS29.14
BVpS11.28
TBVpS2.03
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.51
Graham Number21.37
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.77%
ROE 13.31%
ROCE 8.98%
ROIC 6.74%
ROICexc 6.93%
ROICexgc 9.82%
OM 9.93%
PM (TTM) 5.15%
GM 18.72%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)5.38%
ROA(5y)4.63%
ROE(3y)20.38%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)9.09%
ROIC(5y)8.3%
ROICexc(3y)9.28%
ROICexc(5y)8.46%
ROICexgc(3y)13.57%
ROICexgc(5y)12.49%
ROCE(3y)12.13%
ROCE(5y)11.06%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.36%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-2.96%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.99%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.9%
OM growth 3Y-3.51%
OM growth 5Y2.16%
PM growth 3Y-2.33%
PM growth 5Y15.1%
GM growth 3Y-1.29%
GM growth 5Y2.22%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.73
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.51
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.62
Cap/Depr 172.02%
Cap/Sales 10.7%
Interest Coverage 4.02
Cash Conversion 60.42%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.3
Quick Ratio 0.52
Altman-Z 1.43
F-Score5
WACC6.71%
ROIC/WACC1
Cap/Depr(3y)172.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)156.23%
Cap/Sales(3y)10.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.98%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.71%
EPS 3Y-8.37%
EPS 5Y10.15%
EPS Q2Q%-50.85%
EPS Next Y-39.1%
EPS Next 2Y-13.71%
EPS Next 3Y-9.4%
EPS Next 5Y1.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.16%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.99%
Revenue growth 5Y5.61%
Sales Q2Q%0.38%
Revenue Next Year-0.85%
Revenue Next 2Y0.06%
Revenue Next 3Y0.45%
Revenue Next 5Y1.04%
EBIT growth 1Y-25.17%
EBIT growth 3Y-6.4%
EBIT growth 5Y7.89%
EBIT Next Year29.86%
EBIT Next 3Y12.41%
EBIT Next 5Y17.98%
FCF growth 1Y77.62%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y0%
OCF growth 3Y-8.28%
OCF growth 5Y0.39%

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO / GPK Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for GPK stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to GPK.


What is the valuation status for GPK stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


Can you provide the profitability details for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO?

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.


Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GPK stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is expected to decline by -39.1% in the next year.


Is the dividend of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO sustainable?

The dividend rating of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is 8 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 28.83%.