GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)

US3886891015 - Common Stock

27.35  +0.14 (+0.51%)

After market: 27.35 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

6

We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 23 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. GPK has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.



9

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GPK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.

1.2 Ratios

With an excellent Return On Assets value of 6.47%, GPK belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a better Return On Equity (26.00%) than 95.65% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of GPK (11.27%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
GPK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.49%. This is in line with the industry average of 8.25%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (11.27%) for GPK is above the 3 year average (8.49%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.47%
ROE 26%
ROIC 11.27%
ROA(3y)4.49%
ROA(5y)3.69%
ROE(3y)20.36%
ROE(5y)17.2%
ROIC(3y)8.49%
ROIC(5y)7.98%

1.3 Margins

GPK has a Profit Margin of 7.67%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 91.30% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK has a better Operating Margin (13.68%) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 22.90%, GPK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 13.68%
PM (TTM) 7.67%
GM 22.9%
OM growth 3Y15.3%
OM growth 5Y11.76%
PM growth 3Y44.34%
PM growth 5Y15.9%
GM growth 3Y10.94%
GM growth 5Y7.71%

3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

GPK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
GPK has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.

2.2 Solvency

GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.98. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of GPK (1.98) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GPK is 15.80, which is on the high side as it means it would take GPK, 15.80 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GPK has a worse Debt to FCF ratio (15.80) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.66. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.66, GPK is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.48% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.66
Debt/FCF 15.8
Altman-Z 1.98
ROIC/WACC1.63
WACC6.93%

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.10 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK has a Current ratio of 1.10. This is in the lower half of the industry: GPK underperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Quick Ratio of 1.10. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK has a worse Quick ratio (0.42) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.1
Quick Ratio 0.42

5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 24.79% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 28.92% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -0.13%.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 9.35% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)24.79%
EPS 3Y38.04%
EPS 5Y28.92%
EPS growth Q2Q27.12%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.85%
Revenue growth 5Y9.35%
Revenue growth Q2Q-5.74%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 3.78% on average over the next years.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.57% yearly.
EPS Next Y-6.33%
EPS Next 2Y0.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.78%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y0.79%
Revenue Next 3Y2.57%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.

6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.37, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GPK to the average of the S&P500 Index (24.76), we can say GPK is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.00 indicates a reasonable valuation of GPK.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 21.26. GPK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.37
Fwd PE 10

4.2 Price Multiples

Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GPK is valued a bit more expensive than 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 24.72
EV/EBITDA 7.12

4.3 Compensation for Growth

GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.32
EPS Next 2Y0.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.78%

5

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.47%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
GPK's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 3.01.
GPK's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.44.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.47%

5.2 History

The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.98%.
GPK has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.98%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years5

5.3 Sustainability

GPK pays out 17.01% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP17.01%
EPS Next 2Y0.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.78%

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

NYSE:GPK (4/19/2024, 7:04:00 PM)

After market: 27.35 0 (0%)

27.35

+0.14 (+0.51%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap8.40B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.47%
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
Avg EPS beat(4)
Min EPS beat(4)
Max EPS beat(4)
EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
Avg Revenue beat(4)
Min Revenue beat(4)
Max Revenue beat(4)
Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
Avg Revenue beat(12)
Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.37
Fwd PE 10
P/S
P/FCF
P/OCF
P/B
P/tB
EV/EBITDA
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.32
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 6.47%
ROE 26%
ROCE
ROIC
ROICexc
ROICexgc
OM 13.68%
PM (TTM) 7.67%
GM 22.9%
FCFM
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.84
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.66
Debt/FCF
Debt/EBITDA
Cap/Depr
Cap/Sales
Interest Coverage
Cash Conversion
Profit Quality
Current Ratio 1.1
Quick Ratio 0.42
Altman-Z
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)24.79%
EPS 3Y38.04%
EPS 5Y
EPS growth Q2Q
EPS Next Y-6.33%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.85%
Revenue growth 5Y
Revenue growth Q2Q
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y