GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. GPK has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK has been profitable.
In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GPK (4.53%) is better than 81.82% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 16.59%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 7.88%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GPK is above the industry average of 7.55%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.53% | ||
| ROE | 16.59% | ||
| ROIC | 7.88% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 6.18%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 11.73%, GPK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK has a Gross Margin (21.23%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.73% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.18% | ||
| GM | 21.23% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
GPK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
GPK has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GPK has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.75. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
GPK has a Altman-Z score (1.75) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.68 is on the high side and indicates that GPK has dependencies on debt financing.
GPK's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.68 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.75 |
ROIC/WACC1.15
WACC6.88%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.43 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK has a Current ratio of 1.43. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.56 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.56, GPK is not doing good in the industry: 81.82% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.56 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -21.45%.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 23.12% on average per year.
The Revenue has decreased by -5.05% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.41% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.45%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-30%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.05%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.48%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.89% on average per year.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.29% yearly.
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y6.89%
Revenue Next Year-4.05%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.85%
Revenue Next 3Y0.33%
Revenue Next 5Y1.29%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.54, which indicates a very decent valuation of GPK.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.91% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GPK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.86, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.34, which indicates a very decent valuation of GPK.
90.91% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GPK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 34.94, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.34 |
4.2 Price Multiples
77.27% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.99 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.46
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.94%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.14.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
GPK pays out 23.22% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP23.22%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
NYSE:GPK (8/21/2025, 10:42:09 AM)
22.77
+0.19 (+0.84%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners113.95%
Inst Owner Change0.62%
Ins Owners1.39%
Ins Owner Change-12.46%
Market Cap6.75B
Analysts75.29
Price Target26.34 (15.68%)
Short Float %7.85%
Short Ratio6.47
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP23.22%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-5.44%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)2.84%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.12%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)2.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.68%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)1.92%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.95%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.28%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.24%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.02%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.24%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.7%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.31%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.24%
PT rev (1m)-1.73%
PT rev (3m)-4.12%
EPS NQ rev (1m)6.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.23%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)1.52%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.05%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.26%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.51%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.34 | ||
| P/S | 0.78 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 8.76 | ||
| P/B | 2.1 | ||
| P/tB | 14.76 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.99 |
EPS(TTM)2.16
EY9.49%
EPS(NY)2.44
Fwd EY10.71%
FCF(TTM)-1.33
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.6
OCFY11.41%
SpS29.15
BVpS10.86
TBVpS1.54
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.46
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.53% | ||
| ROE | 16.59% | ||
| ROCE | 10.42% | ||
| ROIC | 7.88% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.98% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.19% | ||
| OM | 11.73% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.18% | ||
| GM | 21.23% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.73
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.49 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 216.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.48% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 49.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.56 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.75 |
F-Score4
WACC6.88%
ROIC/WACC1.15
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.45%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-30%
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y6.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.05%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.48%
Revenue Next Year-4.05%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.85%
Revenue Next 3Y0.33%
Revenue Next 5Y1.29%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.93%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year25.82%
EBIT Next 3Y11.91%
EBIT Next 5Y8.71%
FCF growth 1Y-175.77%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-29.55%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%