GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GPK - US3886891015 - Common Stock
15.15 USD
+0.09 (+0.6%)
15.15 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. GPK scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. GPK also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GPK had positive earnings in the past year.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GPK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GPK has a better Return On Assets (4.30%) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 15.56%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GPK (7.42%) is better than 77.27% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GPK is above the industry average of 7.62%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.3% | ||
| ROE | 15.56% | ||
| ROIC | 7.42% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 5.94%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of GPK (11.31%) is better than 77.27% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
GPK has a Gross Margin (20.49%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.31% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.94% | ||
| GM | 20.49% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GPK is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for GPK has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.60. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of GPK (1.60) is worse than 63.64% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.67. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GPK has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.67) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.67 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
ROIC/WACC0.98
WACC7.58%
2.3 Liquidity
GPK has a Current Ratio of 1.54. This is a normal value and indicates that GPK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK's Current ratio of 1.54 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.63 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK's Quick ratio of 0.63 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 86.36% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.63 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -20.75%.
GPK shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 23.12% yearly.
GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.93%.
GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 7.41% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.75%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-9.38%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.93%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.17%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 2.21% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 0.48% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-22.64%
EPS Next 2Y-12.16%
EPS Next 3Y-3.93%
EPS Next 5Y2.21%
Revenue Next Year-3.53%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.91%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.84%
Revenue Next 5Y0.48%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 7.21, the valuation of GPK can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 100.00% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.51. GPK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
GPK is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.89.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 90.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GPK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.13, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.89 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 90.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.82 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GPK has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A cheap valuation may be justified as GPK's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.93% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.31
EPS Next 2Y-12.16%
EPS Next 3Y-3.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.91%, GPK has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
The stock price of GPK dropped by -21.79% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.52, GPK pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
GPK's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.00.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.91% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
As GPK did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
GPK pays out 24.85% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP24.85%
EPS Next 2Y-12.16%
EPS Next 3Y-3.93%
15.15
+0.09 (+0.6%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners111.83%
Inst Owner Change-1.85%
Ins Owners0.72%
Ins Owner Change-24.94%
Market Cap4.47B
Revenue(TTM)8.61B
Net Income(TTM)511.00M
Analysts70.59
Price Target20.63 (36.17%)
Short Float %9.85%
Short Ratio5.33
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.91% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP24.85%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)2.83%
Min EPS beat(2)2.82%
Max EPS beat(2)2.84%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-3.88%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)2.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.77%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)0.79%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.63%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)0.85%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.24%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.02%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.24%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.91%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.67%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.99%
PT rev (1m)-3.96%
PT rev (3m)-21.42%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.69%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-24.99%
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.46%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.38%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.34%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.02%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.28%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.89 | ||
| P/S | 0.52 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 5.52 | ||
| P/B | 1.36 | ||
| P/tB | 8.3 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.82 |
EPS(TTM)2.1
EY13.86%
EPS(NY)1.92
Fwd EY12.68%
FCF(TTM)-1.04
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.74
OCFY18.12%
SpS29.17
BVpS11.13
TBVpS1.83
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.31
Graham Number22.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.3% | ||
| ROE | 15.56% | ||
| ROCE | 9.81% | ||
| ROIC | 7.42% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.51% | ||
| ROICexgc | 10.43% | ||
| OM | 11.31% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 5.94% | ||
| GM | 20.49% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexgc growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexgc growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.72
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.67 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.67 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 213.36% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 12.99% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 54.07% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.63 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.6 |
F-Score5
WACC7.58%
ROIC/WACC0.98
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.75%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-9.38%
EPS Next Y-22.64%
EPS Next 2Y-12.16%
EPS Next 3Y-3.93%
EPS Next 5Y2.21%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.93%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.17%
Revenue Next Year-3.53%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.91%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.84%
Revenue Next 5Y0.48%
EBIT growth 1Y-17.39%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year20.03%
EBIT Next 3Y8.98%
EBIT Next 5Y6.69%
FCF growth 1Y-164.71%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-30.89%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO / GPK FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for GPK stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to GPK.
What is the valuation status for GPK stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
Can you provide the profitability details for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO?
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for GPK stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is expected to decline by -22.64% in the next year.
Is the dividend of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO sustainable?
The dividend rating of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is 7 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 24.85%.