GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. GPK has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GPK had positive earnings in the past year.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 5.39%, GPK belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a better Return On Equity (19.64%) than 81.82% of its industry peers.
GPK has a better Return On Invested Capital (8.19%) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GPK is above the industry average of 7.58%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK's Profit Margin of 7.15% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.39%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 21.84%, GPK is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GPK is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.85. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GPK has a Altman-Z score of 1.85. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GPK outperforms 45.45% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.80. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GPK has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.80. This is in the lower half of the industry: GPK underperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.85 |
ROIC/WACC1.09
WACC7.48%
2.3 Liquidity
GPK has a Current Ratio of 1.88. This is a normal value and indicates that GPK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.88, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Quick Ratio of 1.88. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GPK have decreased strongly by -16.73% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 23.12% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has decreased by -6.28% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.41% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
3.2 Future
GPK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.98% yearly.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.94% yearly.
EPS Next Y-14.8%
EPS Next 2Y-0.24%
EPS Next 3Y3.06%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue Next Year-4.59%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.28%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.98, which indicates a very decent valuation of GPK.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.91% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.92. GPK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.48 indicates a reasonable valuation of GPK.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.49, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.48 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
EPS Next 2Y-0.24%
EPS Next 3Y3.06%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.08%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.14.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.08% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
GPK pays out 19.52% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
GPK's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP19.52%
EPS Next 2Y-0.24%
EPS Next 3Y3.06%
21.02
-0.14 (-0.66%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners111.75%
Inst Owner Change2.43%
Ins Owners1.35%
Ins Owner Change10.75%
Market Cap6.34B
Analysts77.5
Price Target26.8 (27.5%)
Short Float %7.13%
Short Ratio6.43
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.08% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP19.52%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-10.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)-7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.37%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.19%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.33%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.45%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.08%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-2.44%
PT rev (3m)-16.31%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.2%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-26.02%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.25%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.05%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.68%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.05%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.07%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.48 | ||
| P/S | 0.73 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 9.55 | ||
| P/B | 2.01 | ||
| P/tB | 13.76 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.4 |
EPS(TTM)2.34
EY11.13%
EPS(NY)2.48
Fwd EY11.79%
FCF(TTM)-1.73
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.2
OCFY10.47%
SpS28.73
BVpS10.46
TBVpS1.53
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.39
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROCE | 10.82% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.43% | ||
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.52 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 219.44% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.85 |
F-Score5
WACC7.48%
ROIC/WACC1.09
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
EPS Next Y-14.8%
EPS Next 2Y-0.24%
EPS Next 3Y3.06%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
Revenue Next Year-4.59%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.28%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-14.08%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year28.67%
EBIT Next 3Y12%
EBIT Next 5Y9.49%
FCF growth 1Y-185.41%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-41.34%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%