GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GPK - US3886891015 - Common Stock
20.72 USD
-0.34 (-1.61%)
20.506 USD
-0.21 (-1.03%)
GPK gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GPK had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GPK had a positive cash flow from operations.
GPK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GPK (4.53%) is better than 81.82% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Return On Equity of 16.59%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
GPK's Return On Invested Capital of 7.88% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
GPK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.05%. This is above the industry average of 7.26%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.53% | ||
| ROE | 16.59% | ||
| ROIC | 7.88% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK has a Profit Margin of 6.18%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 11.73%, GPK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.27% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK has a Gross Margin of 21.23%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GPK outperforms 45.45% of its industry peers.
GPK's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 11.73% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.18% | ||
| GM | 21.23% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GPK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
GPK has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.72, we must say that GPK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.72, GPK is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.68. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GPK (1.68) is worse than 68.18% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
ROIC/WACC1.15
WACC6.87%
2.3 Liquidity
GPK has a Current Ratio of 1.43. This is a normal value and indicates that GPK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK has a better Current ratio (1.43) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Quick Ratio of 1.43. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.56, GPK is not doing good in the industry: 81.82% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.56 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GPK have decreased strongly by -21.45% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 23.12% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -5.05% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.41% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.45%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-30%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.05%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.48%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.89% on average over the next years.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.29% yearly.
EPS Next Y-16.47%
EPS Next 2Y-4.46%
EPS Next 3Y1.91%
EPS Next 5Y6.89%
Revenue Next Year-3.26%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.82%
Revenue Next 3Y0.28%
Revenue Next 5Y1.29%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.59, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
95.45% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.30, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 9.12, which indicates a very decent valuation of GPK.
90.91% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GPK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.73.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.12 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GPK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 77.27% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.41
EPS Next 2Y-4.46%
EPS Next 3Y1.91%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.11%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.25, GPK has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.45.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
23.22% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
GPK's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP23.22%
EPS Next 2Y-4.46%
EPS Next 3Y1.91%
20.72
-0.34 (-1.61%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners113.95%
Inst Owner Change0.62%
Ins Owners1.39%
Ins Owner Change-24.38%
Market Cap6.14B
Analysts75.29
Price Target26.17 (26.3%)
Short Float %7.56%
Short Ratio6.29
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP23.22%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-5.44%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)2.84%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.12%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)2.84%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.68%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)1.92%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.95%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.28%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.24%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.02%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.24%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.7%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.31%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.24%
PT rev (1m)-0.66%
PT rev (3m)-3.38%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.55%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-15.51%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.75%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.18%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.87%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.83%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.35%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.59 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.12 | ||
| P/S | 0.71 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 7.97 | ||
| P/B | 1.91 | ||
| P/tB | 13.43 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7 |
EPS(TTM)2.16
EY10.42%
EPS(NY)2.27
Fwd EY10.97%
FCF(TTM)-1.33
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.6
OCFY12.54%
SpS29.15
BVpS10.86
TBVpS1.54
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 4.53% | ||
| ROE | 16.59% | ||
| ROCE | 10.42% | ||
| ROIC | 7.88% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.98% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.19% | ||
| OM | 11.73% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.18% | ||
| GM | 21.23% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.73
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.68 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.49 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 216.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.48% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 49.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.56 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.72 |
F-Score4
WACC6.87%
ROIC/WACC1.15
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-21.45%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-30%
EPS Next Y-16.47%
EPS Next 2Y-4.46%
EPS Next 3Y1.91%
EPS Next 5Y6.89%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.05%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-1.48%
Revenue Next Year-3.26%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.82%
Revenue Next 3Y0.28%
Revenue Next 5Y1.29%
EBIT growth 1Y-15.93%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year25.82%
EBIT Next 3Y11.91%
EBIT Next 5Y8.71%
FCF growth 1Y-175.77%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-29.55%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%