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GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

23.21  -0.32 (-1.36%)

After market: 23.21 0 (0%)

Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GPK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
GPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

GPK's Return On Assets of 5.39% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK has a better Return On Equity (19.64%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.19%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GPK is above the industry average of 7.52%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.39%
ROE 19.64%
ROIC 8.19%
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
GPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20 25

1.3 Margins

GPK has a better Profit Margin (7.15%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK has a Operating Margin of 12.39%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 21.84%, GPK is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 12.39%
PM (TTM) 7.15%
GM 21.84%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
GPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10 15 20

3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GPK has been reduced compared to a year ago.
GPK Yearly Shares OutstandingGPK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 100M 200M 300M
GPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.89. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.89, GPK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.80. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.80, GPK is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.8
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.89
ROIC/WACC1.19
WACC6.89%
GPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.88 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK has a Current ratio of 1.88. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 63.64% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.88
Quick Ratio 0.73
GPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

3

3. Growth

3.1 Past

GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -16.73%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 23.12% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has decreased by -6.28% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.94% yearly.
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue Next Year-4.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.18%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%

3.3 Evolution

When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
GPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
GPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 1 2 3

6

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings ratio is 9.92, which indicates a very decent valuation of GPK.
GPK's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.35, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.52, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
GPK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 37.54, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.92
Fwd PE 9.52
GPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30

4.2 Price Multiples

GPK's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 7.79
GPK Per share dataGPK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 10 20

4.3 Compensation for Growth

GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%

6

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.95%, GPK has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.94, GPK has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, GPK has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.95%

5.2 History

The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
As GPK did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
GPK Yearly Dividends per shareGPK Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 0 0 0 0

5.3 Sustainability

19.52% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP19.52%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
GPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendGPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M
GPK Dividend Payout.GPK Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.GPK Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

NYSE:GPK (7/24/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 23.21 0 (0%)

23.21

-0.32 (-1.36%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)05-01 2025-05-01/bmo
Earnings (Next)07-29 2025-07-29/bmo
Inst Owners111.75%
Inst Owner Change0.23%
Ins Owners1.35%
Ins Owner Change10.67%
Market Cap7.00B
Analysts75.29
Price Target26.03 (12.15%)
Short Float %8.11%
Short Ratio6.86
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 1.95%
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP19.52%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date06-13 2025-06-13 (0.11)
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-10.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)-7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.37%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.19%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.33%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.45%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.08%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-3.9%
PT rev (3m)-17.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-26.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.23%
EPS NY rev (3m)-17.62%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.61%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.36%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 9.92
Fwd PE 9.52
P/S 0.81
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 10.55
P/B 2.22
P/tB 15.19
EV/EBITDA 7.79
EPS(TTM)2.34
EY10.08%
EPS(NY)2.44
Fwd EY10.5%
FCF(TTM)-1.73
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.2
OCFY9.48%
SpS28.72
BVpS10.46
TBVpS1.53
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 5.39%
ROE 19.64%
ROCE 10.82%
ROIC 8.19%
ROICexc 8.29%
ROICexgc 11.43%
OM 12.39%
PM (TTM) 7.15%
GM 21.84%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.8
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.52
Cap/Depr 219.44%
Cap/Sales 13.67%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 41.14%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.88
Quick Ratio 0.73
Altman-Z 1.89
F-Score5
WACC6.89%
ROIC/WACC1.19
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
Revenue Next Year-4.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.18%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-14.08%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year28.67%
EBIT Next 3Y12%
EBIT Next 5Y9.49%
FCF growth 1Y-185.41%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-41.34%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%