GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:GPK • US3886891015

Current stock price

9.72 USD
+0.12 (+1.25%)
At close:
9.72 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This GPK fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

7

1. GPK Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • GPK had positive earnings in the past year.
  • In the past year GPK had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • In the past 5 years GPK has always been profitable.
  • GPK had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
GPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFGPK Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M 1B

1.2 Ratios

  • GPK has a better Return On Assets (3.77%) than 61.90% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Equity of GPK (13.31%) is better than 66.67% of its industry peers.
  • The Return On Invested Capital of GPK (6.74%) is better than 61.90% of its industry peers.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GPK is above the industry average of 6.91%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.77%
ROE 13.31%
ROIC 6.74%
ROA(3y)5.38%
ROA(5y)4.63%
ROE(3y)20.38%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)9.09%
ROIC(5y)8.3%
GPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICGPK Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20 25

1.3 Margins

  • GPK's Profit Margin of 5.15% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
  • GPK's Operating Margin of 9.93% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GPK outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
  • GPK has a worse Gross Margin (18.72%) than 76.19% of its industry peers.
  • GPK's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 9.93%
PM (TTM) 5.15%
GM 18.72%
OM growth 3Y-3.51%
OM growth 5Y2.16%
PM growth 3Y-2.33%
PM growth 5Y15.1%
GM growth 3Y-1.29%
GM growth 5Y2.22%
GPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsGPK Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10 15 20

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2

2. GPK Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • GPK has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
  • The debt/assets ratio for GPK is higher compared to a year ago.
GPK Yearly Shares OutstandingGPK Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 100M 200M 300M
GPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsGPK Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B

2.2 Solvency

  • Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.43, we must say that GPK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
  • GPK has a Altman-Z score (1.43) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
  • GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.51, GPK is doing worse than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.51
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 1.43
ROIC/WACC1.08
WACC6.22%
GPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFGPK Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B 4B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.30 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • GPK has a Current ratio of 1.30. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
  • GPK has a Quick Ratio of 1.30. This is a bad value and indicates that GPK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • GPK has a Quick ratio of 0.52. This is amonst the worse of the industry: GPK underperforms 90.48% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.3
Quick Ratio 0.52
GPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesGPK Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500M 1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B

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3

3. GPK Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -27.71%.
  • The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.15% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
  • Looking at the last year, GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -2.16% in the last year.
  • Measured over the past years, GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.61% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.71%
EPS 3Y-8.37%
EPS 5Y10.15%
EPS Q2Q%-50.85%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.16%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.99%
Revenue growth 5Y5.61%
Sales Q2Q%0.38%

3.2 Future

  • The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 1.61% on average over the next years.
  • GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.04% yearly.
EPS Next Y-40.62%
EPS Next 2Y-14.84%
EPS Next 3Y-10.38%
EPS Next 5Y1.61%
Revenue Next Year-1.17%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.02%
Revenue Next 3Y0.36%
Revenue Next 5Y1.04%

3.3 Evolution

  • The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
GPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesGPK Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2B 4B 6B 8B 10B
GPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesGPK Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

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6

4. GPK Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • GPK is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5.40.
  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GPK to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.89), we can say GPK is valued rather cheaply.
  • GPK is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.09.
  • Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
  • GPK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.97.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 5.4
Fwd PE 9.09
GPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsGPK Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 90.48% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 5.84
GPK Per share dataGPK EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 5 10 15 20 25

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • GPK has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • GPK's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.38% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.53
EPS Next 2Y-14.84%
EPS Next 3Y-10.38%

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8

5. GPK Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.67%, which is a nice return.
  • The stock price of GPK dropped by -33.65% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.66, GPK pays a better dividend. On top of this GPK pays more dividend than 85.71% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, GPK pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.67%

5.2 History

  • The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 3.14%.
  • GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
  • GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.14%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years7
GPK Yearly Dividends per shareGPK Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

5.3 Sustainability

  • GPK pays out 28.83% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
  • The dividend of GPK is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP28.83%
EPS Next 2Y-14.84%
EPS Next 3Y-10.38%
GPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendGPK Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 500M -500M
GPK Dividend Payout.GPK Dividend Payout, showing the Payout Ratio.GPK Dividend Payout.PayoutRetained Earnings

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GPK Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

NYSE:GPK (4/28/2026, 4:15:00 PM)

After market: 9.72 0 (0%)

9.72

+0.12 (+1.25%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)02-03
Earnings (Next)05-05
Inst Owners117.32%
Inst Owner Change-0.4%
Ins Owners0.35%
Ins Owner Change2.85%
Market Cap2.87B
Revenue(TTM)8.62B
Net Income(TTM)444.00M
Analysts67.5
Price Target16.89 (73.77%)
Short Float %13.9%
Short Ratio5.82
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 4.67%
Yearly Dividend0.43
Dividend Growth(5Y)3.14%
DP28.83%
Div Incr Years1
Div Non Decr Years7
Ex-Date03-13
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-8.63%
Min EPS beat(2)-20.09%
Max EPS beat(2)2.82%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-7.04%
Min EPS beat(4)-20.09%
Max EPS beat(4)2.84%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-4.11%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)-0.96%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)3.08%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.35%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.46%
Max Revenue beat(2)2.24%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.53%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Max Revenue beat(4)2.24%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.6%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.06%
PT rev (1m)-4.33%
PT rev (3m)-15.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-41.67%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-86.76%
EPS NY rev (1m)-2.49%
EPS NY rev (3m)-42.85%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.12%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.33%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.89%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 5.4
Fwd PE 9.09
P/S 0.33
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 3.42
P/B 0.86
P/tB 4.78
EV/EBITDA 5.84
EPS(TTM)1.8
EY18.52%
EPS(NY)1.07
Fwd EY11%
FCF(TTM)-0.27
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.84
OCFY29.26%
SpS29.14
BVpS11.28
TBVpS2.03
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.53
Graham Number21.374 (119.9%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 3.77%
ROE 13.31%
ROCE 8.98%
ROIC 6.74%
ROICexc 6.93%
ROICexgc 9.82%
OM 9.93%
PM (TTM) 5.15%
GM 18.72%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)5.38%
ROA(5y)4.63%
ROE(3y)20.38%
ROE(5y)19.25%
ROIC(3y)9.09%
ROIC(5y)8.3%
ROICexc(3y)9.28%
ROICexc(5y)8.46%
ROICexgc(3y)13.57%
ROICexgc(5y)12.49%
ROCE(3y)12.13%
ROCE(5y)11.06%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-11.36%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-2.96%
ROICexc growth 3Y-9.99%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.9%
OM growth 3Y-3.51%
OM growth 5Y2.16%
PM growth 3Y-2.33%
PM growth 5Y15.1%
GM growth 3Y-1.29%
GM growth 5Y2.22%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.73
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 1.51
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 3.62
Cap/Depr 172.02%
Cap/Sales 10.7%
Interest Coverage 4.02
Cash Conversion 60.42%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.3
Quick Ratio 0.52
Altman-Z 1.43
F-Score5
WACC6.22%
ROIC/WACC1.08
Cap/Depr(3y)172.63%
Cap/Depr(5y)156.23%
Cap/Sales(3y)10.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.98%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.71%
EPS 3Y-8.37%
EPS 5Y10.15%
EPS Q2Q%-50.85%
EPS Next Y-40.62%
EPS Next 2Y-14.84%
EPS Next 3Y-10.38%
EPS Next 5Y1.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.16%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.99%
Revenue growth 5Y5.61%
Sales Q2Q%0.38%
Revenue Next Year-1.17%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.02%
Revenue Next 3Y0.36%
Revenue Next 5Y1.04%
EBIT growth 1Y-25.17%
EBIT growth 3Y-6.4%
EBIT growth 5Y7.89%
EBIT Next Year29.31%
EBIT Next 3Y12.41%
EBIT Next 5Y17.98%
FCF growth 1Y77.62%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y0%
OCF growth 3Y-8.28%
OCF growth 5Y0.39%

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO / GPK Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the fundamental rating for GPK stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to GPK.


What is the valuation status for GPK stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) stock?

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) has a profitability rating of 7 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for GPK stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is 5.4 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 0.86.


What is the expected EPS growth for GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) stock?

The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) is expected to decline by -40.62% in the next year.