GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
GPK gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. GPK has an excellent profitability rating, but there are concerns on its financial health. GPK is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GPK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 5.39%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Return On Equity of 19.64%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.19%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GPK is above the industry average of 7.58%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK has a better Profit Margin (7.15%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of GPK (12.39%) is better than 77.27% of its industry peers.
GPK's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of GPK (21.84%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
GPK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.89. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.89, GPK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.80 is on the high side and indicates that GPK has dependencies on debt financing.
GPK has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.80) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC6.84%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.88 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GPK (1.88) is better than 86.36% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK has a worse Quick ratio (0.73) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GPK have decreased strongly by -16.73% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 23.12% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has decreased by -6.28% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.98% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 1.94% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue Next Year-4.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.18%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.02, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
86.36% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.53. GPK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.62, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
GPK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GPK to the average of the S&P500 Index (36.71), we can say GPK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.62 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.79 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of GPK may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.95%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.95, GPK has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, GPK has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
19.52% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP19.52%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
NYSE:GPK (7/23/2025, 3:52:10 PM)
23.455
+0.21 (+0.93%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners111.75%
Inst Owner Change0.23%
Ins Owners1.35%
Ins Owner Change10.67%
Market Cap7.08B
Analysts75.29
Price Target26.03 (10.98%)
Short Float %8.11%
Short Ratio6.86
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP19.52%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-10.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)-7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.37%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.19%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.33%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.45%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.08%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-3.9%
PT rev (3m)-17.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-26.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.23%
EPS NY rev (3m)-17.62%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.61%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.02 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.62 | ||
| P/S | 0.82 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 10.66 | ||
| P/B | 2.24 | ||
| P/tB | 15.35 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.79 |
EPS(TTM)2.34
EY9.98%
EPS(NY)2.44
Fwd EY10.39%
FCF(TTM)-1.73
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.2
OCFY9.38%
SpS28.72
BVpS10.46
TBVpS1.53
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROCE | 10.82% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.43% | ||
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.52 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 219.44% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
F-Score5
WACC6.84%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
Revenue Next Year-4.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.18%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-14.08%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year28.67%
EBIT Next 3Y12%
EBIT Next 5Y9.49%
FCF growth 1Y-185.41%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-41.34%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%