GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GPK had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GPK's Return On Assets of 5.39% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK has a better Return On Equity (19.64%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Return On Invested Capital of 8.19%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GPK is above the industry average of 7.52%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK has a better Profit Margin (7.15%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK has a Operating Margin of 12.39%. This is in the better half of the industry: GPK outperforms 77.27% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 21.84%, GPK is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GPK has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.89. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 1.89, GPK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.55% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.80. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.80, GPK is doing worse than 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
ROIC/WACC1.19
WACC6.89%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.88 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK has a Current ratio of 1.88. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -16.73%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 23.12% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue has decreased by -6.28% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.41% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 8.98% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 1.94% yearly.
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue Next Year-4.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.18%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 9.92, which indicates a very decent valuation of GPK.
GPK's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.35, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.52, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
GPK's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 37.54, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.52 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GPK's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GPK is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.79 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.95%, GPK has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.94, GPK has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.36, GPK has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
As GPK did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
19.52% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP19.52%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
23.21
-0.32 (-1.36%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners111.75%
Inst Owner Change0.23%
Ins Owners1.35%
Ins Owner Change10.67%
Market Cap7.00B
Analysts75.29
Price Target26.03 (12.15%)
Short Float %8.11%
Short Ratio6.86
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP19.52%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-10.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)-7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.37%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.19%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.33%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.45%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.08%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-3.9%
PT rev (3m)-17.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.43%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-26.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.23%
EPS NY rev (3m)-17.62%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.61%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.3%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.52 | ||
| P/S | 0.81 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 10.55 | ||
| P/B | 2.22 | ||
| P/tB | 15.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.79 |
EPS(TTM)2.34
EY10.08%
EPS(NY)2.44
Fwd EY10.5%
FCF(TTM)-1.73
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.2
OCFY9.48%
SpS28.72
BVpS10.46
TBVpS1.53
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROCE | 10.82% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.43% | ||
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.52 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 219.44% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.89 |
F-Score5
WACC6.89%
ROIC/WACC1.19
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
EPS Next Y-15.84%
EPS Next 2Y-1.06%
EPS Next 3Y2.52%
EPS Next 5Y8.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
Revenue Next Year-4.3%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.95%
Revenue Next 3Y0.18%
Revenue Next 5Y1.94%
EBIT growth 1Y-14.08%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year28.67%
EBIT Next 3Y12%
EBIT Next 5Y9.49%
FCF growth 1Y-185.41%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-41.34%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%