GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
GPK gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
In the past year GPK had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years GPK has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GPK's Return On Assets of 5.39% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 19.64%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GPK (8.19%) is better than 72.73% of its industry peers.
GPK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.05%. This is above the industry average of 7.52%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK's Profit Margin of 7.15% is amongst the best of the industry. GPK outperforms 86.36% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Operating Margin of GPK (12.39%) is better than 77.27% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
GPK has a Gross Margin (21.84%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GPK is creating some value.
GPK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.87. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GPK has a Altman-Z score (1.87) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.80. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.80, GPK is not doing good in the industry: 63.64% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.87 |
ROIC/WACC1.22
WACC6.73%
2.3 Liquidity
GPK has a Current Ratio of 1.88. This is a normal value and indicates that GPK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK has a better Current ratio (1.88) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.73 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -16.73%.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 23.12% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -6.28% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.41% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
3.2 Future
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 7.99% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-14.79%
EPS Next 2Y-0.14%
EPS Next 3Y2.67%
EPS Next 5Y7.99%
Revenue Next Year-4.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.9%
Revenue Next 3Y0.42%
Revenue Next 5Y2.18%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GPK is valuated reasonably with a Price/Earnings ratio of 9.50.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.91% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GPK to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.46), we can say GPK is valued rather cheaply.
GPK is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.96.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.30, GPK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.96 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GPK indicates a rather cheap valuation: GPK is cheaper than 81.82% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.54 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of GPK may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.41
EPS Next 2Y-0.14%
EPS Next 3Y2.67%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.97%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.19, GPK has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, GPK has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.97% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
As GPK did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
GPK pays out 19.52% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP19.52%
EPS Next 2Y-0.14%
EPS Next 3Y2.67%
22.24
+0.33 (+1.51%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners109.61%
Inst Owner Change2.43%
Ins Owners1.14%
Ins Owner Change10.77%
Market Cap6.71B
Analysts77.5
Price Target27.47 (23.52%)
Short Float %7.36%
Short Ratio6.83
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.97% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP19.52%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-10.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(2)-7.47%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.66%
Min EPS beat(4)-13.73%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.37%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.19%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.33%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.81%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.9%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.81%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.45%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.08%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-11.5%
PT rev (3m)-14.22%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-24.81%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-26.16%
EPS NY rev (1m)-16.6%
EPS NY rev (3m)-18.25%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-2.8%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.63%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.46%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.03%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.96 | ||
| P/S | 0.77 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 10.11 | ||
| P/B | 2.13 | ||
| P/tB | 14.56 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.54 |
EPS(TTM)2.34
EY10.52%
EPS(NY)2.48
Fwd EY11.16%
FCF(TTM)-1.73
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.2
OCFY9.89%
SpS28.73
BVpS10.46
TBVpS1.53
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.41
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.39% | ||
| ROE | 19.64% | ||
| ROCE | 10.82% | ||
| ROIC | 8.19% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.29% | ||
| ROICexgc | 11.43% | ||
| OM | 12.39% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.15% | ||
| GM | 21.84% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.75
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.8 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.52 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 219.44% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 41.14% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.88 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.87 |
F-Score5
WACC6.73%
ROIC/WACC1.22
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
EPS Next Y-14.79%
EPS Next 2Y-0.14%
EPS Next 3Y2.67%
EPS Next 5Y7.99%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.28%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
Revenue Next Year-4.54%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.9%
Revenue Next 3Y0.42%
Revenue Next 5Y2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-14.08%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year28.67%
EBIT Next 3Y12%
EBIT Next 5Y11.1%
FCF growth 1Y-185.41%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-41.34%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%