GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GPK - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3886891015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, GPK scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GPK was compared to 23 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. GPK has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GPK had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GPK had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of GPK (5.90%) is better than 82.61% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 21.85%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a better Return On Invested Capital (9.37%) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GPK is above the industry average of 7.70%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 21.85% | ||
| ROIC | 9.37% |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
1.3 Margins
GPK has a better Profit Margin (7.47%) than 82.61% of its industry peers.
GPK's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 12.99%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 22.50%, GPK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 12.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.47% | ||
| GM | 22.5% |
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GPK is still creating some value.
GPK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GPK has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.88. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 1.88, GPK is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.71. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GPK has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.71. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GPK outperforms 43.48% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.71 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.88 |
ROIC/WACC1.48
WACC6.35%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.46 indicates that GPK should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK has a better Current ratio (1.46) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.54 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GPK's Quick ratio of 0.54 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GPK is outperformed by 82.61% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -16.73%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 23.12% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -6.59% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, GPK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 7.41% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.59%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 7.99% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y2.16%
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
EPS Next 5Y7.99%
Revenue Next Year-2.13%
Revenue Next 2Y0.21%
Revenue Next 3Y1.25%
Revenue Next 5Y2.18%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 9.32 indicates a reasonable valuation of GPK.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 28.22.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.82, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of GPK.
86.96% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GPK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 20.86, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.82 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.74 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates GPK does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
GPK has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)4.31
PEG (5Y)0.4
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.06%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
The stock price of GPK dropped by -20.49% in the last 3 months. With lower prices the dividend yield is higher, but it may be a sign investors do not trust the long term dividend.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 3.29.
GPK's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.05%.
GPK has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
As GPK did not decrease their dividend in the past 5 years, we can say the dividend looks stable.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
5.3 Sustainability
GPK pays out 18.54% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GPK is growing, but earnings are growing more, so the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP18.54%
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
21.81
+0.44 (+2.06%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners109.61%
Inst Owner Change-0.38%
Ins Owners1.14%
Ins Owner Change9.82%
Market Cap6.58B
Analysts77.5
Price Target31.04 (42.32%)
Short Float %6.01%
Short Ratio6.68
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.06% |
Yearly Dividend0.4
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.05%
DP18.54%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years6
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-6.8%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.47%
Max EPS beat(2)-6.12%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.19%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.47%
Max EPS beat(4)4.7%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.09%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)6.45%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.67%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.76%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.99%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.53%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.95%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.03%
Max Revenue beat(4)-2.27%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-4.17%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.59%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.2%
PT rev (1m)-3.08%
PT rev (3m)-6.43%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.92%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-6.59%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.72%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.2%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.23%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.96%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.58%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-2.83%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.32 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.82 | ||
| P/S | 0.75 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 7.83 | ||
| P/B | 2.18 | ||
| P/tB | 18.7 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.74 |
EPS(TTM)2.34
EY10.73%
EPS(NY)2.79
Fwd EY12.79%
FCF(TTM)-1.2
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)2.79
OCFY12.78%
SpS29.19
BVpS9.98
TBVpS1.17
PEG (NY)4.31
PEG (5Y)0.4
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.9% | ||
| ROE | 21.85% | ||
| ROCE | 12.38% | ||
| ROIC | 9.37% | ||
| ROICexc | 9.53% | ||
| ROICexgc | 13.46% | ||
| OM | 12.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.47% | ||
| GM | 22.5% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.81%
ROA(5y)4.3%
ROE(3y)24.04%
ROE(5y)18.93%
ROIC(3y)10.05%
ROIC(5y)8.5%
ROICexc(3y)10.23%
ROICexc(5y)8.68%
ROICexgc(3y)15.13%
ROICexgc(5y)12.92%
ROCE(3y)13.28%
ROCE(5y)11.23%
ROICexcg growth 3Y20.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y4.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y23.89%
ROICexc growth 5Y5.5%
OM growth 3Y19.48%
OM growth 5Y6.94%
PM growth 3Y37.87%
PM growth 5Y17.35%
GM growth 3Y14.57%
GM growth 5Y4.88%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.79
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.71 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.04 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 215.98% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 13.66% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.32 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 49.44% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.46 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.54 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.88 |
F-Score5
WACC6.35%
ROIC/WACC1.48
Cap/Depr(3y)148.38%
Cap/Depr(5y)149%
Cap/Sales(3y)9.33%
Cap/Sales(5y)9.81%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-16.73%
EPS 3Y29.75%
EPS 5Y23.12%
EPS Q2Q%-22.73%
EPS Next Y2.16%
EPS Next 2Y5.86%
EPS Next 3Y5.85%
EPS Next 5Y7.99%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-6.59%
Revenue growth 3Y7.16%
Revenue growth 5Y7.41%
Sales Q2Q%-6.15%
Revenue Next Year-2.13%
Revenue Next 2Y0.21%
Revenue Next 3Y1.25%
Revenue Next 5Y2.18%
EBIT growth 1Y-11.32%
EBIT growth 3Y28.04%
EBIT growth 5Y14.87%
EBIT Next Year43.92%
EBIT Next 3Y15.83%
EBIT Next 5Y11.1%
FCF growth 1Y-206.47%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-26.49%
OCF growth 3Y11.36%
OCF growth 5Y4.78%