ETSY INC (ETSY) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:ETSY - Nasdaq - US29786A1060 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to ETSY. ETSY was compared to 28 industry peers in the Broadline Retail industry. ETSY scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. ETSY is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ETSY had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ETSY had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years ETSY 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ETSY had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of ETSY (8.87%) is better than 78.57% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 18.05%, ETSY belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ETSY is above the industry average of 11.59%.
The 3 year average ROIC (14.75%) for ETSY is below the current ROIC(18.05%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.87% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROIC | 18.05% |
ROA(3y)-0.78%
ROA(5y)5.01%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)14.75%
ROIC(5y)14.2%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of ETSY (6.69%) is better than 67.86% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ETSY has declined.
ETSY's Operating Margin of 13.91% is amongst the best of the industry. ETSY outperforms 85.71% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ETSY has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 72.30%, ETSY belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ETSY has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.69% | ||
| GM | 72.3% |
OM growth 3Y-12.19%
OM growth 5Y4.53%
PM growth 3Y-20.12%
PM growth 5Y-1.62%
GM growth 3Y0.24%
GM growth 5Y1.61%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ETSY is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ETSY has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for ETSY has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ETSY is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
ETSY has an Altman-Z score of 2.09. This is not the best score and indicates that ETSY is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
ETSY has a Altman-Z score (2.09) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ETSY is 3.49, which is a good value as it means it would take ETSY, 3.49 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 3.49, ETSY is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.09 |
ROIC/WACC2.33
WACC7.75%
2.3 Liquidity
ETSY has a Current Ratio of 2.14. This indicates that ETSY is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
ETSY has a better Current ratio (2.14) than 75.00% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.14 indicates that ETSY has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.14, ETSY belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.14 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.14 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 6.82% over the past year.
ETSY shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 25.54% yearly.
Looking at the last year, ETSY shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 2.18% in the last year.
ETSY shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 27.97% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.82%
EPS 3Y-11.42%
EPS 5Y25.54%
EPS Q2Q%-4.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.18%
Revenue growth 3Y6.44%
Revenue growth 5Y27.97%
Sales Q2Q%0.81%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 24.28% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
Based on estimates for the next years, ETSY will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.00% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-32.42%
EPS Next 2Y9.43%
EPS Next 3Y10.07%
EPS Next 5Y24.28%
Revenue Next Year-1.67%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.03%
Revenue Next 3Y1.79%
Revenue Next 5Y5%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 23.90, which indicates a rather expensive current valuation of ETSY.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ETSY is valued a bit cheaper than 64.29% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.34, ETSY is valued at the same level.
ETSY is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 19.79.
ETSY's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 21.03, ETSY is valued at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.79 |
4.2 Price Multiples
ETSY's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
ETSY's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ETSY is cheaper than 85.71% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.55 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.31 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of ETSY may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.94
EPS Next 2Y9.43%
EPS Next 3Y10.07%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ETSY!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
56.16
+0.86 (+1.56%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryBroadline Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners118.59%
Inst Owner Change-1.14%
Ins Owners0.96%
Ins Owner Change0.38%
Market Cap5.86B
Analysts67.5
Price Target52.7 (-6.16%)
Short Float %22.8%
Short Ratio4.21
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)0.16%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.84%
Max EPS beat(2)8.16%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-6.59%
Min EPS beat(4)-16.48%
Max EPS beat(4)8.16%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.89%
EPS beat(12)4
Avg EPS beat(12)-176.75%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-129.16%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.92%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.66%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.86%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.88%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.09%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.33%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.29%
PT rev (1m)2.14%
PT rev (3m)-10.65%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-2.28%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.68%
EPS NY rev (3m)-38.8%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.29%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.5%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.9 | ||
| Fwd PE | 19.79 | ||
| P/S | 2.08 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.55 | ||
| P/OCF | 7.99 | ||
| P/B | N/A | ||
| P/tB | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 14.31 |
EPS(TTM)2.35
EY4.18%
EPS(NY)2.84
Fwd EY5.05%
FCF(TTM)6.57
FCFY11.7%
OCF(TTM)7.03
OCFY12.51%
SpS26.98
BVpS-8.73
TBVpS-13.05
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.94
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.87% | ||
| ROE | N/A | ||
| ROCE | 24.44% | ||
| ROIC | 18.05% | ||
| ROICexc | 39.38% | ||
| ROICexgc | 101.83% | ||
| OM | 13.91% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.69% | ||
| GM | 72.3% | ||
| FCFM | 24.34% |
ROA(3y)-0.78%
ROA(5y)5.01%
ROE(3y)N/A
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)14.75%
ROIC(5y)14.2%
ROICexc(3y)35.74%
ROICexc(5y)46.84%
ROICexgc(3y)158.04%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.98%
ROCE(5y)19.24%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8.44%
ROICexcg growth 5Y39.3%
ROICexc growth 3Y36.7%
ROICexc growth 5Y26.36%
OM growth 3Y-12.19%
OM growth 5Y4.53%
PM growth 3Y-20.12%
PM growth 5Y-1.62%
GM growth 3Y0.24%
GM growth 5Y1.61%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.33
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | N/A | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.49 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.76 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 43.95% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.7% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 146.52% | ||
| Profit Quality | 363.97% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.14 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.14 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.09 |
F-Score6
WACC7.75%
ROIC/WACC2.33
Cap/Depr(3y)40.81%
Cap/Depr(5y)35.34%
Cap/Sales(3y)1.48%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.24%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.82%
EPS 3Y-11.42%
EPS 5Y25.54%
EPS Q2Q%-4.17%
EPS Next Y-32.42%
EPS Next 2Y9.43%
EPS Next 3Y10.07%
EPS Next 5Y24.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.18%
Revenue growth 3Y6.44%
Revenue growth 5Y27.97%
Sales Q2Q%0.81%
Revenue Next Year-1.67%
Revenue Next 2Y-0.03%
Revenue Next 3Y1.79%
Revenue Next 5Y5%
EBIT growth 1Y7.43%
EBIT growth 3Y-6.54%
EBIT growth 5Y33.76%
EBIT Next Year96.47%
EBIT Next 3Y28.9%
EBIT Next 5Y21.21%
FCF growth 1Y6.44%
FCF growth 3Y4.49%
FCF growth 5Y30.17%
OCF growth 1Y7.79%
OCF growth 3Y4.91%
OCF growth 5Y29.46%