CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:COP - US20825C1045 - Common Stock
91.92 USD
-1.56 (-1.67%)
91.85 USD
-0.07 (-0.08%)
Overall COP gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated COP against 210 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of COP get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. COP has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year COP was profitable.
COP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
COP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years COP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.47%, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 76.19% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 13.96%, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.95% of the companies in the same industry.
COP's Return On Invested Capital of 7.71% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 68.57% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for COP is significantly below the industry average of 21.66%.
The 3 year average ROIC (13.48%) for COP is well above the current ROIC(7.71%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.47% | ||
| ROE | 13.96% | ||
| ROIC | 7.71% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of COP (15.84%) is better than 67.62% of its industry peers.
COP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
COP's Operating Margin of 22.09% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 59.05% of its industry peers.
COP's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
COP has a Gross Margin (46.81%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of COP has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | 46.81% |
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so COP is still creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, COP has more shares outstanding
COP has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for COP is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
COP has an Altman-Z score of 2.83. This is not the best score and indicates that COP is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
COP's Altman-Z score of 2.83 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 79.52% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of COP is 3.40, which is a good value as it means it would take COP, 3.40 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of COP (3.40) is better than 75.24% of its industry peers.
COP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.35. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.35, COP is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.05% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.83 |
ROIC/WACC0.96
WACC8%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
COP has a Current ratio of 1.27. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: COP outperforms 59.05% of its industry peers.
COP has a Quick Ratio of 1.10. This is a normal value and indicates that COP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.10, COP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.05% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for COP have decreased strongly by -15.17% in the last year.
COP shows quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 16.70% yearly.
Looking at the last year, COP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 2.39% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, COP shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 11.04% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-15.17%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-28.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.39%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%4.27%
3.2 Future
COP is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.58% yearly.
COP is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.30% yearly.
EPS Next Y-17.32%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
EPS Next 5Y8.58%
Revenue Next Year7.43%
Revenue Next 2Y2.44%
Revenue Next 3Y2.81%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.64, the valuation of COP can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 62.86% of the companies are valued more expensively.
COP is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.38, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 13.61, which indicates a correct valuation of COP.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as COP.
COP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.86.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.61 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than 70.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of COP is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.58 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.66 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of COP may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.76
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
COP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.34%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.00, COP has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.38, COP pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.34% |
5.2 History
The dividend of COP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 17.10%!
COP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
COP pays out 41.38% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
COP's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP41.38%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
91.92
-1.56 (-1.67%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners84.02%
Inst Owner Change-6.12%
Ins Owners0.07%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap114.80B
Analysts81.88
Price Target119.06 (29.53%)
Short Float %1.31%
Short Ratio2.59
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.34% |
Yearly Dividend2.97
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
DP41.38%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)1.26%
Min EPS beat(2)0.59%
Max EPS beat(2)1.92%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)4.18%
Min EPS beat(4)0.59%
Max EPS beat(4)7.4%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)3.97%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.22%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.17%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.51%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.38%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.91%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.91%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.82%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.97%
PT rev (1m)1.53%
PT rev (3m)1.89%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-3.37%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.61%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)2.38%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.11%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.41%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.86%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.61 | ||
| P/S | 1.99 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.58 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.79 | ||
| P/B | 1.75 | ||
| P/tB | 1.75 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.66 |
EPS(TTM)7.27
EY7.91%
EPS(NY)6.75
Fwd EY7.35%
FCF(TTM)5.54
FCFY6.03%
OCF(TTM)15.87
OCFY17.26%
SpS46.28
BVpS52.5
TBVpS52.5
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.76
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.47% | ||
| ROE | 13.96% | ||
| ROCE | 11.44% | ||
| ROIC | 7.71% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.1% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.1% | ||
| OM | 22.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | 46.81% | ||
| FCFM | 11.98% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)14.87%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)14.87%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.99%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-0.85%
ROICexc growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.85%
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.99 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 121.24% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 22.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 17.56 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 84.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | 75.61% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.83 |
F-Score4
WACC8%
ROIC/WACC0.96
Cap/Depr(3y)132.54%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.37%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.37%
Profit Quality(3y)88.06%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-15.17%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-28.28%
EPS Next Y-17.32%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
EPS Next 5Y8.58%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.39%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%4.27%
Revenue Next Year7.43%
Revenue Next 2Y2.44%
Revenue Next 3Y2.81%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
EBIT growth 1Y-14.91%
EBIT growth 3Y0.67%
EBIT growth 5Y12.6%
EBIT Next Year67.64%
EBIT Next 3Y22.16%
EBIT Next 5Y12.48%
FCF growth 1Y-49.61%
FCF growth 3Y-11.81%
FCF growth 5Y12.37%
OCF growth 1Y-19.39%
OCF growth 3Y5.79%
OCF growth 5Y12.63%