CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:COP - US20825C1045 - Common Stock
98.97 USD
+0.52 (+0.53%)
98.97 USD
0 (0%)
COP gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 209 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. COP has an average financial health and profitability rating. COP has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
COP had positive earnings in the past year.
COP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
COP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years COP always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 7.47%, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 74.76% of the companies in the same industry.
COP has a Return On Equity of 13.96%. This is in the better half of the industry: COP outperforms 70.48% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 7.71%, COP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.57% of the companies in the same industry.
COP had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 13.48%. This is significantly below the industry average of 21.96%.
The 3 year average ROIC (13.48%) for COP is well above the current ROIC(7.71%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.47% | ||
| ROE | 13.96% | ||
| ROIC | 7.71% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
COP has a Profit Margin of 15.84%. This is in the better half of the industry: COP outperforms 67.14% of its industry peers.
COP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
COP has a Operating Margin (22.09%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of COP has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 46.81%, COP is in line with its industry, outperforming 54.76% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of COP has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | 46.81% |
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), COP is creating some value.
COP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for COP has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
COP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
COP has an Altman-Z score of 2.92. This is not the best score and indicates that COP is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
COP has a Altman-Z score of 2.92. This is in the better half of the industry: COP outperforms 80.00% of its industry peers.
COP has a debt to FCF ratio of 3.40. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as COP would need 3.40 years to pay back of all of its debts.
COP's Debt to FCF ratio of 3.40 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 75.24% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.35 indicates that COP is not too dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of COP (0.35) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.4 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.88
WACC8.73%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of COP (1.27) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.10 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
COP has a Quick ratio of 1.10. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: COP outperforms 58.10% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
COP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -15.17%.
Measured over the past years, COP shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 16.70% on average per year.
COP shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 2.39%.
COP shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.04% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-15.17%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-28.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.39%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%4.27%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, COP will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 8.58% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -1.30% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-17.32%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
EPS Next 5Y8.58%
Revenue Next Year5.93%
Revenue Next 2Y0.75%
Revenue Next 3Y1.47%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
COP is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.61.
COP's Price/Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.13. COP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 14.66, which indicates a correct valuation of COP.
COP's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.76. COP is valued slightly cheaper when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than 67.14% of the companies in the same industry.
COP's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is in line with the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.85 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.04 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
COP has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.82
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.17%, COP has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
COP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.06.
COP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.17% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of COP grows each year by 17.10%, which is quite nice.
COP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
COP pays out 41.38% of its income as dividend. This is a bit on the high side, but may be sustainable.
The dividend of COP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP41.38%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
98.97
+0.52 (+0.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners84.02%
Inst Owner Change-6.12%
Ins Owners0.07%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap123.61B
Analysts81.94
Price Target118.77 (20.01%)
Short Float %1.38%
Short Ratio2.31
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.17% |
Yearly Dividend2.97
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
DP41.38%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)1.26%
Min EPS beat(2)0.59%
Max EPS beat(2)1.92%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)4.18%
Min EPS beat(4)0.59%
Max EPS beat(4)7.4%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)3.97%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.22%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.17%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.51%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.36%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.38%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.28%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.91%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.91%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.82%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.97%
PT rev (1m)0.73%
PT rev (3m)-2.55%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-28.47%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.25%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.52%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-3.68%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-10.99%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.26%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.63%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.61 | ||
| Fwd PE | 14.66 | ||
| P/S | 2.14 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.85 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.24 | ||
| P/B | 1.89 | ||
| P/tB | 1.89 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.04 |
EPS(TTM)7.27
EY7.35%
EPS(NY)6.75
Fwd EY6.82%
FCF(TTM)5.54
FCFY5.6%
OCF(TTM)15.87
OCFY16.03%
SpS46.28
BVpS52.5
TBVpS52.5
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.82
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.47% | ||
| ROE | 13.96% | ||
| ROCE | 11.44% | ||
| ROIC | 7.71% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.1% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.1% | ||
| OM | 22.09% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 15.84% | ||
| GM | 46.81% | ||
| FCFM | 11.98% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)14.87%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)14.87%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.99%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-0.85%
ROICexc growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.85%
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
F-Score4
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.35 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 3.4 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.99 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 121.24% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 22.31% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 17.56 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 84.68% | ||
| Profit Quality | 75.61% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.92 |
F-Score4
WACC8.73%
ROIC/WACC0.88
Cap/Depr(3y)132.54%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.37%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.37%
Profit Quality(3y)88.06%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-15.17%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-28.28%
EPS Next Y-17.32%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y3.91%
EPS Next 5Y8.58%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)2.39%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%4.27%
Revenue Next Year5.93%
Revenue Next 2Y0.75%
Revenue Next 3Y1.47%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
EBIT growth 1Y-14.91%
EBIT growth 3Y0.67%
EBIT growth 5Y12.6%
EBIT Next Year67.64%
EBIT Next 3Y22.16%
EBIT Next 5Y12.48%
FCF growth 1Y-49.61%
FCF growth 3Y-11.81%
FCF growth 5Y12.37%
OCF growth 1Y-19.39%
OCF growth 3Y5.79%
OCF growth 5Y12.63%