CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:COP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US20825C1045 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall COP gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated COP against 211 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of COP get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. COP has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year COP was profitable.
In the past year COP had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years COP 4 years were profitable.
COP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of COP (7.66%) is better than 75.36% of its industry peers.
COP's Return On Equity of 14.58% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 70.62% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 8.30%, COP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 68.25% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for COP is significantly below the industry average of 23.70%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.30%) for COP is well below the 3 year average (13.48%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that COP had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.58% | ||
| ROIC | 8.3% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 16.57%, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.82% of the companies in the same industry.
COP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a Operating Margin value of 23.79%, COP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.40% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of COP has remained more or less at the same level.
COP has a Gross Margin (47.56%) which is in line with its industry peers.
COP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 23.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.57% | ||
| GM | 47.56% |
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), COP is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, COP has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for COP has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
COP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.76 indicates that COP is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 2.76, COP belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 80.57% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of COP is 2.74, which is a good value as it means it would take COP, 2.74 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
COP has a better Debt to FCF ratio (2.74) than 79.15% of its industry peers.
COP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
COP has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.36) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.76 |
ROIC/WACC1.03
WACC8.07%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of COP (1.27) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Quick Ratio of 1.13 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of COP (1.13) is better than 60.19% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.13 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for COP have decreased by -7.12% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, COP shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 16.70% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, COP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 4.05% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, COP shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 11.04% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.12%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%2.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.05%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%18.13%
3.2 Future
COP is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.93% yearly.
COP is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.30% yearly.
EPS Next Y-16.81%
EPS Next 2Y-5.15%
EPS Next 3Y4.21%
EPS Next 5Y8.93%
Revenue Next Year6.51%
Revenue Next 2Y3.86%
Revenue Next 3Y3.39%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 11.46 indicates a reasonable valuation of COP.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.88% of the companies are valued more expensively.
COP is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.15, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.84 indicates a correct valuation of COP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of COP is on the same level as its industry peers.
COP is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.60, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.46 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.84 |
4.2 Price Multiples
68.72% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than COP, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 65.40% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.06 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.42 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
COP has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.69
EPS Next 2Y-5.15%
EPS Next 3Y4.21%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.43%, COP has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
COP's Dividend Yield is comparable with the industry average which is at 6.66.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, COP pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.43% |
5.2 History
The dividend of COP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 17.10%!
COP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
COP pays out 39.10% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
COP's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP39.1%
EPS Next 2Y-5.15%
EPS Next 3Y4.21%
89.74
-0.43 (-0.48%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.83%
Inst Owner Change1.16%
Ins Owners0.07%
Ins Owner Change6.33%
Market Cap113.29B
Analysts81.88
Price Target116.86 (30.22%)
Short Float %1.34%
Short Ratio2.05
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.43% |
Yearly Dividend2.97
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
DP39.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.71%
Min EPS beat(2)0.59%
Max EPS beat(2)6.82%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.7%
Min EPS beat(4)0%
Max EPS beat(4)7.4%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.92%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.21%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.01%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.38%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.33%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.06%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.81%
PT rev (1m)-4.12%
PT rev (3m)-12.25%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.96%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-25.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)-1.92%
EPS NY rev (3m)-20.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-3.81%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.46 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.84 | ||
| P/S | 1.97 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.06 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.33 | ||
| P/B | 1.74 | ||
| P/tB | 1.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.42 |
EPS(TTM)7.83
EY8.73%
EPS(NY)6.99
Fwd EY7.79%
FCF(TTM)6.87
FCFY7.66%
OCF(TTM)16.84
OCFY18.76%
SpS45.48
BVpS51.68
TBVpS51.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.69
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.58% | ||
| ROCE | 12.31% | ||
| ROIC | 8.3% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.88% | ||
| OM | 23.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.57% | ||
| GM | 47.56% | ||
| FCFM | 15.11% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)14.87%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)14.87%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.99%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-0.85%
ROICexc growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.85%
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.97 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 124.14% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 21.91% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 17.83 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | 91.17% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.76 |
F-Score5
WACC8.07%
ROIC/WACC1.03
Cap/Depr(3y)132.54%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.37%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.37%
Profit Quality(3y)88.06%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.12%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%2.96%
EPS Next Y-16.81%
EPS Next 2Y-5.15%
EPS Next 3Y4.21%
EPS Next 5Y8.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.05%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%18.13%
Revenue Next Year6.51%
Revenue Next 2Y3.86%
Revenue Next 3Y3.39%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
EBIT growth 1Y-6.62%
EBIT growth 3Y0.67%
EBIT growth 5Y12.6%
EBIT Next Year66.63%
EBIT Next 3Y22.97%
EBIT Next 5Y16.82%
FCF growth 1Y-53.75%
FCF growth 3Y-11.81%
FCF growth 5Y12.37%
OCF growth 1Y-25.81%
OCF growth 3Y5.79%
OCF growth 5Y12.63%