CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:COP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US20825C1045 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall COP gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated COP against 213 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. COP has an average financial health and profitability rating. COP is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year COP was profitable.
In the past year COP had a positive cash flow from operations.
COP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
COP had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
COP's Return On Assets of 7.66% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 74.65% of its industry peers.
COP has a better Return On Equity (14.58%) than 68.08% of its industry peers.
COP's Return On Invested Capital of 8.30% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 64.79% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for COP is significantly below the industry average of 25.88%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (8.30%) for COP is well below the 3 year average (13.48%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that COP had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.58% | ||
| ROIC | 8.3% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
COP has a better Profit Margin (16.57%) than 67.14% of its industry peers.
COP's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
COP has a Operating Margin (23.79%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
COP's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
COP has a Gross Margin of 47.56%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: COP outperforms 54.46% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of COP has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 23.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.57% | ||
| GM | 47.56% |
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
COP has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating some value.
COP has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for COP has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, COP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
COP has an Altman-Z score of 2.76. This is not the best score and indicates that COP is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.76, COP belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.22% of the companies in the same industry.
COP has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.74. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as COP would need 2.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
COP's Debt to FCF ratio of 2.74 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. COP outperforms 79.81% of its industry peers.
COP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
COP has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.36) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.76 |
ROIC/WACC0.85
WACC9.74%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of COP (1.27) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
COP has a Quick Ratio of 1.13. This is a normal value and indicates that COP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
COP has a Quick ratio (1.13) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.13 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
COP shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -7.12%.
Measured over the past years, COP shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 16.70% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.05% in the past year.
COP shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 11.04% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.12%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%2.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.05%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%18.13%
3.2 Future
COP is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.93% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -3.28% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-15.19%
EPS Next 2Y-4.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
EPS Next 5Y8.93%
Revenue Next Year6.6%
Revenue Next 2Y4.19%
Revenue Next 3Y2.96%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.28%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 11.45, the valuation of COP can be described as very reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of COP indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: COP is cheaper than 64.32% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of COP to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.60), we can say COP is valued rather cheaply.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.53, COP is valued correctly.
COP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
COP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.43.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than 68.54% of the companies in the same industry.
66.67% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than COP, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.07 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.42 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
COP has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.69
EPS Next 2Y-4.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
COP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.36%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 7.05, COP has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
COP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.36% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of COP grows each year by 17.10%, which is quite nice.
COP has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
COP pays out 39.10% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of COP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP39.1%
EPS Next 2Y-4.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
89.69
-0.72 (-0.8%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners82.74%
Inst Owner Change1.22%
Ins Owners0.08%
Ins Owner Change6.54%
Market Cap113.38B
Analysts81.82
Price Target121.88 (35.89%)
Short Float %1.61%
Short Ratio2.03
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.36% |
Yearly Dividend2.97
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
DP39.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.71%
Min EPS beat(2)0.59%
Max EPS beat(2)6.82%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.7%
Min EPS beat(4)0%
Max EPS beat(4)7.4%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.92%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.21%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.01%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.38%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.33%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.06%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.81%
PT rev (1m)-7.99%
PT rev (3m)-9.97%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-21.34%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-26.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)-10.9%
EPS NY rev (3m)-20.65%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-6.43%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.02%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-2.43%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.45 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.53 | ||
| P/S | 1.97 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.07 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.33 | ||
| P/B | 1.74 | ||
| P/tB | 1.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.42 |
EPS(TTM)7.83
EY8.73%
EPS(NY)7.16
Fwd EY7.98%
FCF(TTM)6.86
FCFY7.65%
OCF(TTM)16.81
OCFY18.75%
SpS45.42
BVpS51.61
TBVpS51.61
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.69
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.58% | ||
| ROCE | 12.31% | ||
| ROIC | 8.3% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.88% | ||
| OM | 23.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.57% | ||
| GM | 47.56% | ||
| FCFM | 15.11% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)14.87%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)14.87%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.99%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-0.85%
ROICexc growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.85%
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.97 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 124.14% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 21.91% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 17.83 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | 91.17% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.76 |
F-Score5
WACC9.74%
ROIC/WACC0.85
Cap/Depr(3y)132.54%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.37%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.37%
Profit Quality(3y)88.06%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-7.12%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%2.96%
EPS Next Y-15.19%
EPS Next 2Y-4.01%
EPS Next 3Y6.76%
EPS Next 5Y8.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.05%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%18.13%
Revenue Next Year6.6%
Revenue Next 2Y4.19%
Revenue Next 3Y2.96%
Revenue Next 5Y-3.28%
EBIT growth 1Y-6.62%
EBIT growth 3Y0.67%
EBIT growth 5Y12.6%
EBIT Next Year82.21%
EBIT Next 3Y24.74%
EBIT Next 5Y23.45%
FCF growth 1Y-53.75%
FCF growth 3Y-11.81%
FCF growth 5Y12.37%
OCF growth 1Y-25.81%
OCF growth 3Y5.79%
OCF growth 5Y12.63%