CONOCOPHILLIPS (COP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:COP - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US20825C1045 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
COP gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 208 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. Both the profitability and the financial health of COP get a neutral evaluation. Nothing too spectacular is happening here. COP has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year COP was profitable.
In the past year COP had a positive cash flow from operations.
COP had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years COP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
COP has a Return On Assets of 7.66%. This is in the better half of the industry: COP outperforms 75.48% of its industry peers.
COP has a better Return On Equity (14.58%) than 71.63% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 8.30%, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 69.23% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for COP is significantly below the industry average of 23.63%.
The 3 year average ROIC (13.48%) for COP is well above the current ROIC(8.30%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.58% | ||
| ROIC | 8.3% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
With a decent Profit Margin value of 16.57%, COP is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.35% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of COP has declined.
COP has a Operating Margin (23.79%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
COP's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
COP has a Gross Margin of 47.56%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: COP outperforms 55.77% of its industry peers.
COP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 23.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.57% | ||
| GM | 47.56% |
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), COP is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, COP has more shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for COP has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
COP has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
COP has an Altman-Z score of 2.80. This is not the best score and indicates that COP is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of COP (2.80) is better than 80.77% of its industry peers.
COP has a debt to FCF ratio of 2.74. This is a good value and a sign of high solvency as COP would need 2.74 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 2.74, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.37% of the companies in the same industry.
COP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.36. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
COP has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.36) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.74 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.8 |
ROIC/WACC0.97
WACC8.54%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.27 indicates that COP should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
COP has a Current ratio of 1.27. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: COP outperforms 58.65% of its industry peers.
COP has a Quick Ratio of 1.13. This is a normal value and indicates that COP is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.13, COP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.06% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.13 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
COP shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -15.17%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 16.70% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
COP shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -2.49%.
Measured over the past years, COP shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 11.04% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-15.17%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-28.28%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.49%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%4.27%
3.2 Future
COP is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 8.93% yearly.
COP is expected to show a decrease in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will decrease by -1.30% yearly.
EPS Next Y-14.55%
EPS Next 2Y-4.31%
EPS Next 3Y3.97%
EPS Next 5Y8.93%
Revenue Next Year8.38%
Revenue Next 2Y3.75%
Revenue Next 3Y2.98%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 12.92, which indicates a correct valuation of COP.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 61.06% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.48. COP is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.20, COP is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of COP is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of COP to the average of the S&P500 Index (34.04), we can say COP is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.2 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 67.31% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, COP is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 63.94% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 13.67 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.57 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of COP may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.77
EPS Next 2Y-4.31%
EPS Next 3Y3.97%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
COP has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.35%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 6.34, COP has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
COP's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.35% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of COP grows each year by 17.10%, which is quite nice.
COP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
5.3 Sustainability
39.10% of the earnings are spent on dividend by COP. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of COP is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP39.1%
EPS Next 2Y-4.31%
EPS Next 3Y3.97%
93.91
+1.31 (+1.41%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners83.83%
Inst Owner Change-0.14%
Ins Owners0.07%
Ins Owner Change6.33%
Market Cap118.55B
Analysts81.94
Price Target117.26 (24.86%)
Short Float %1.24%
Short Ratio2.04
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.35% |
Yearly Dividend2.97
Dividend Growth(5Y)17.1%
DP39.1%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.71%
Min EPS beat(2)0.59%
Max EPS beat(2)6.82%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.7%
Min EPS beat(4)0%
Max EPS beat(4)7.4%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.92%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)3.21%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)4.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.2%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.01%
Max Revenue beat(2)6.38%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.43%
Min Revenue beat(4)-6.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.38%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.33%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.06%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.81%
PT rev (1m)0.91%
PT rev (3m)-6.21%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.57%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-21.67%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.72%
EPS NY rev (3m)-10.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)3.26%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.98%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.75%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.88%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.92 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.2 | ||
| P/S | 2.06 | ||
| P/FCF | 13.67 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.58 | ||
| P/B | 1.82 | ||
| P/tB | 1.82 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.57 |
EPS(TTM)7.27
EY7.74%
EPS(NY)7.12
Fwd EY7.58%
FCF(TTM)6.87
FCFY7.32%
OCF(TTM)16.84
OCFY17.93%
SpS45.48
BVpS51.68
TBVpS51.68
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.77
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.58% | ||
| ROCE | 12.31% | ||
| ROIC | 8.3% | ||
| ROICexc | 8.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 8.88% | ||
| OM | 23.79% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 16.57% | ||
| GM | 47.56% | ||
| FCFM | 15.11% |
ROA(3y)12.91%
ROA(5y)8.66%
ROE(3y)25.06%
ROE(5y)16.77%
ROIC(3y)13.48%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)14.87%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)14.87%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)19.99%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-0.85%
ROICexc growth 3Y-10.62%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.85%
OM growth 3Y-5.12%
OM growth 5Y1.4%
PM growth 3Y-1.44%
PM growth 5Y-5.35%
GM growth 3Y-0.54%
GM growth 5Y0.01%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.36 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 2.74 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.97 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 124.14% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 21.91% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 17.83 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | 91.17% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.27 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.8 |
F-Score5
WACC8.54%
ROIC/WACC0.97
Cap/Depr(3y)132.54%
Cap/Depr(5y)111.38%
Cap/Sales(3y)18.37%
Cap/Sales(5y)18.37%
Profit Quality(3y)88.06%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-15.17%
EPS 3Y9%
EPS 5Y16.7%
EPS Q2Q%-28.28%
EPS Next Y-14.55%
EPS Next 2Y-4.31%
EPS Next 3Y3.97%
EPS Next 5Y8.93%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-2.49%
Revenue growth 3Y6.11%
Revenue growth 5Y11.04%
Sales Q2Q%4.27%
Revenue Next Year8.38%
Revenue Next 2Y3.75%
Revenue Next 3Y2.98%
Revenue Next 5Y-1.3%
EBIT growth 1Y-6.62%
EBIT growth 3Y0.67%
EBIT growth 5Y12.6%
EBIT Next Year67.64%
EBIT Next 3Y22.16%
EBIT Next 5Y16.82%
FCF growth 1Y-53.75%
FCF growth 3Y-11.81%
FCF growth 5Y12.37%
OCF growth 1Y-25.81%
OCF growth 3Y5.79%
OCF growth 5Y12.63%