CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:CF - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1252691001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall CF gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. We evaluated CF against 85 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. CF has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. CF may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings would make CF suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CF had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year CF had a positive cash flow from operations.
CF had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of CF (10.04%) is better than 95.29% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 27.95%, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 96.47% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of CF (12.60%) is better than 94.12% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for CF is significantly above the industry average of 6.84%.
The 3 year average ROIC (20.79%) for CF is well above the current ROIC(12.60%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.04% | ||
| ROE | 27.95% | ||
| ROIC | 12.6% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 21.80%, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 98.82% of the companies in the same industry.
CF's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 30.71%, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.29% of the companies in the same industry.
CF's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of CF (36.20%) is better than 75.29% of its industry peers.
CF's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.8% | ||
| GM | 36.2% |
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so CF is creating value.
CF has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
CF has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CF is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
CF has an Altman-Z score of 2.57. This is not the best score and indicates that CF is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of CF (2.57) is better than 72.94% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CF is 1.60, which is an excellent value as it means it would take CF, only 1.60 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
CF's Debt to FCF ratio of 1.60 is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 91.76% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62 indicates that CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of CF (0.62) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Although CF does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.57 |
ROIC/WACC1.46
WACC8.62%
2.3 Liquidity
CF has a Current Ratio of 2.59. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF has a Current ratio of 2.59. This is in the better half of the industry: CF outperforms 71.76% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.22 indicates that CF has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.22, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.18% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.22 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 17.06%, which is quite good.
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 24.81% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.66% in the past year.
CF shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 5.28% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.06%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%120%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.66%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CF will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.56% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.42% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y14.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue Next Year8.93%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.67 indicates a correct valuation of CF.
80.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CF, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
CF is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.28, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 15.41, which indicates a correct valuation of CF.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CF is on the same level as its industry peers.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of CF to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.76), we can say CF is valued slightly cheaper.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.67 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.41 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CF is valued cheaper than 89.41% of the companies in the same industry.
90.59% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CF, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.87 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of CF may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.89
PEG (5Y)0.51
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.21%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.69, CF pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
CF's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CF grows each year by 10.99%, which is quite nice.
CF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
5.3 Sustainability
CF pays out 26.42% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CF is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP26.42%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
93.85
+1.36 (+1.47%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners104.45%
Inst Owner Change0.53%
Ins Owners0.74%
Ins Owner Change-0.19%
Market Cap15.20B
Analysts70.34
Price Target90.73 (-3.32%)
Short Float %5.09%
Short Ratio2.84
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
Yearly Dividend2.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
DP26.42%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.9%
Min EPS beat(2)13.26%
Max EPS beat(2)28.54%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)18.36%
Min EPS beat(4)9.97%
Max EPS beat(4)28.54%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)6.6%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)2.37%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-12.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.52%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.62%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.52%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.34%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.43%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.54%
PT rev (1m)0.66%
PT rev (3m)-2.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.29%
EPS NQ rev (3m)9.92%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.9%
EPS NY rev (3m)22.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.29%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.67 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.41 | ||
| P/S | 2.48 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.3 | ||
| P/B | 3.18 | ||
| P/tB | 8.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.87 |
EPS(TTM)7.41
EY7.9%
EPS(NY)6.09
Fwd EY6.49%
FCF(TTM)11.48
FCFY12.23%
OCF(TTM)14.89
OCFY15.86%
SpS37.83
BVpS29.5
TBVpS11.04
PEG (NY)0.89
PEG (5Y)0.51
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.04% | ||
| ROE | 27.95% | ||
| ROCE | 15.22% | ||
| ROIC | 12.6% | ||
| ROICexc | 14.21% | ||
| ROICexgc | 19.55% | ||
| OM | 30.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.8% | ||
| GM | 36.2% | ||
| FCFM | 30.35% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
ROICexc(3y)25.05%
ROICexc(5y)19.9%
ROICexgc(3y)32.66%
ROICexgc(5y)25.93%
ROCE(3y)25.11%
ROCE(5y)20.18%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.21%
ROICexcg growth 5Y14.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-12.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y13.25%
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.6 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.07 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 61.81% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.01% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 86.92% | ||
| Profit Quality | 139.22% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.22 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.57 |
F-Score7
WACC8.62%
ROIC/WACC1.46
Cap/Depr(3y)55.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)51.85%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.13%
Profit Quality(3y)131.22%
Profit Quality(5y)188.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.06%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%120%
EPS Next Y14.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.66%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year8.93%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
EBIT growth 1Y8.54%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.81%
EBIT growth 5Y12.87%
EBIT Next Year49.45%
EBIT Next 3Y11.37%
EBIT Next 5Y13.57%
FCF growth 1Y-36.99%
FCF growth 3Y-9.42%
FCF growth 5Y9.75%
OCF growth 1Y-29.29%
OCF growth 3Y-7.54%
OCF growth 5Y8.58%