CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:CF - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1252691001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
CF gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 85 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. CF has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. CF may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings would make CF suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CF was profitable.
In the past year CF had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years CF has always been profitable.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
CF has a Return On Assets of 10.04%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 95.29% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of CF (27.95%) is better than 96.47% of its industry peers.
CF's Return On Invested Capital of 12.60% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 94.12% of its industry peers.
CF had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 20.79%. This is significantly above the industry average of 6.84%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (12.60%) for CF is well below the 3 year average (20.79%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that CF had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.04% | ||
| ROE | 27.95% | ||
| ROIC | 12.6% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
1.3 Margins
CF has a better Profit Margin (21.80%) than 98.82% of its industry peers.
CF's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CF has a better Operating Margin (30.71%) than 95.29% of its industry peers.
CF's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CF has a better Gross Margin (36.20%) than 75.29% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CF has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.8% | ||
| GM | 36.2% |
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CF is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CF has less shares outstanding
CF has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
CF has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
CF has an Altman-Z score of 2.56. This is not the best score and indicates that CF is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
CF has a better Altman-Z score (2.56) than 72.94% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CF is 1.60, which is an excellent value as it means it would take CF, only 1.60 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
CF has a Debt to FCF ratio of 1.60. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 91.76% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62 indicates that CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.62, CF perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 54.12% of the companies in the same industry.
Although CF does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.56 |
ROIC/WACC1.46
WACC8.62%
2.3 Liquidity
CF has a Current Ratio of 2.59. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF has a better Current ratio (2.59) than 71.76% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 2.22 indicates that CF has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.22, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.18% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.22 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 17.06%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past years, CF shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 24.81% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 0.66% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, CF shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.06%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%120%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.66%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 5.56% on average over the next years.
CF is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.42% yearly.
EPS Next Y14.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue Next Year8.93%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.67, CF is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CF is valued cheaper than 82.35% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.28. CF is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 15.41, the valuation of CF can be described as correct.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as CF.
CF is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.76, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.67 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.41 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.41% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of CF indicates a rather cheap valuation: CF is cheaper than 90.59% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.79 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of CF may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.89
PEG (5Y)0.51
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.21%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.69, CF pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
CF's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CF is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 10.99%!
CF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
5.3 Sustainability
CF pays out 26.42% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CF is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP26.42%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
93.85
+1.36 (+1.47%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners104.45%
Inst Owner Change0.53%
Ins Owners0.74%
Ins Owner Change-0.19%
Market Cap15.20B
Analysts70.34
Price Target90.73 (-3.32%)
Short Float %5.09%
Short Ratio2.84
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.21% |
Yearly Dividend2.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
DP26.42%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.9%
Min EPS beat(2)13.26%
Max EPS beat(2)28.54%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)18.36%
Min EPS beat(4)9.97%
Max EPS beat(4)28.54%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)6.6%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)2.37%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-12.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.52%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.62%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.52%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.34%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.43%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.54%
PT rev (1m)0.66%
PT rev (3m)-2.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.29%
EPS NQ rev (3m)9.92%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.9%
EPS NY rev (3m)22.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.29%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.67 | ||
| Fwd PE | 15.41 | ||
| P/S | 2.48 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.17 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.3 | ||
| P/B | 3.18 | ||
| P/tB | 8.5 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.79 |
EPS(TTM)7.41
EY7.9%
EPS(NY)6.09
Fwd EY6.49%
FCF(TTM)11.48
FCFY12.23%
OCF(TTM)14.89
OCFY15.86%
SpS37.83
BVpS29.5
TBVpS11.04
PEG (NY)0.89
PEG (5Y)0.51
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.04% | ||
| ROE | 27.95% | ||
| ROCE | 15.22% | ||
| ROIC | 12.6% | ||
| ROICexc | 14.21% | ||
| ROICexgc | 19.55% | ||
| OM | 30.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.8% | ||
| GM | 36.2% | ||
| FCFM | 30.35% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
ROICexc(3y)25.05%
ROICexc(5y)19.9%
ROICexgc(3y)32.66%
ROICexgc(5y)25.93%
ROCE(3y)25.11%
ROCE(5y)20.18%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.21%
ROICexcg growth 5Y14.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-12.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y13.25%
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.6 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.07 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 61.81% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.01% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 86.92% | ||
| Profit Quality | 139.22% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.22 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.56 |
F-Score7
WACC8.62%
ROIC/WACC1.46
Cap/Depr(3y)55.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)51.85%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.13%
Profit Quality(3y)131.22%
Profit Quality(5y)188.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.06%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%120%
EPS Next Y14.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.66%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year8.93%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
EBIT growth 1Y8.54%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.81%
EBIT growth 5Y12.87%
EBIT Next Year49.45%
EBIT Next 3Y11.37%
EBIT Next 5Y13.57%
FCF growth 1Y-36.99%
FCF growth 3Y-9.42%
FCF growth 5Y9.75%
OCF growth 1Y-29.29%
OCF growth 3Y-7.54%
OCF growth 5Y8.58%