CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:CF - US1252691001 - Common Stock
86.73 USD
-1.48 (-1.68%)
86.73 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 8 out of 10 to CF. CF was compared to 83 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making CF a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. CF may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings would make CF suitable for value and quality investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CF had positive earnings in the past year.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years CF has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years CF had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 9.47%, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 96.39% of the companies in the same industry.
CF has a better Return On Equity (26.23%) than 93.98% of its industry peers.
CF's Return On Invested Capital of 12.07% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 91.57% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CF is significantly above the industry average of 6.30%.
The 3 year average ROIC (20.79%) for CF is well above the current ROIC(12.07%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.47% | ||
| ROE | 26.23% | ||
| ROIC | 12.07% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
1.3 Margins
CF has a Profit Margin of 20.20%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 98.80% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CF has grown nicely.
CF's Operating Margin of 29.21% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 95.18% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of CF has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of CF (35.60%) is better than 69.88% of its industry peers.
CF's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 29.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.2% | ||
| GM | 35.6% |
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CF is creating value.
CF has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for CF has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for CF is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
CF has an Altman-Z score of 2.44. This is not the best score and indicates that CF is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
CF has a Altman-Z score of 2.44. This is in the better half of the industry: CF outperforms 69.88% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CF is 1.66, which is an excellent value as it means it would take CF, only 1.66 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
CF has a Debt to FCF ratio of 1.66. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 90.36% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.60 indicates that CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of CF (0.60) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Although CF does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.44 |
ROIC/WACC1.45
WACC8.34%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 3.22 indicates that CF has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 3.22, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 84.34% of the companies in the same industry.
CF has a Quick Ratio of 2.84. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF has a better Quick ratio (2.84) than 90.36% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 26.01%, which is quite impressive.
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 24.81% yearly.
CF shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 9.53%.
CF shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 5.28% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)26.01%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%2.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.53%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%20.23%
3.2 Future
CF is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 5.14% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, CF will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.56% on average per year.
EPS Next Y35.82%
EPS Next 2Y5.57%
EPS Next 3Y2.46%
EPS Next 5Y5.14%
Revenue Next Year15.6%
Revenue Next 2Y4.65%
Revenue Next 3Y2.36%
Revenue Next 5Y3.56%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 11.63 indicates a reasonable valuation of CF.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CF is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 79.52% of the companies are valued more expensively.
CF is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.50, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.29 indicates a correct valuation of CF.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, CF is valued a bit cheaper than 68.67% of the companies in the same industry.
CF's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.99.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.29 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of CF indicates a rather cheap valuation: CF is cheaper than 90.36% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
CF's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of CF may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.32
PEG (5Y)0.47
EPS Next 2Y5.57%
EPS Next 3Y2.46%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.26%.
CF's Dividend Yield is a higher than the industry average which is at 3.69.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, CF has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.26% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CF grows each year by 10.99%, which is quite nice.
CF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
5.3 Sustainability
26.34% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CF. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CF is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP26.34%
EPS Next 2Y5.57%
EPS Next 3Y2.46%
86.73
-1.48 (-1.68%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners105.15%
Inst Owner Change-0.03%
Ins Owners0.71%
Ins Owner Change-1.91%
Market Cap14.05B
Analysts69.29
Price Target97.09 (11.95%)
Short Float %6.46%
Short Ratio3.86
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.26% |
Yearly Dividend2.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
DP26.34%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)9.14%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.26%
Max EPS beat(2)28.54%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.38%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.26%
Max EPS beat(4)28.54%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)3.23%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.54%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-11.42%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.52%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.52%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.53%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.92%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.07%
PT rev (1m)-0.55%
PT rev (3m)7.01%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.41%
EPS NQ rev (3m)48%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.7%
EPS NY rev (3m)18.82%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)9.4%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.26%
Revenue NY rev (3m)6.12%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.63 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.29 | ||
| P/S | 2.18 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.86 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.62 | ||
| P/B | 2.83 | ||
| P/tB | 7.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.19 |
EPS(TTM)7.46
EY8.6%
EPS(NY)7.06
Fwd EY8.13%
FCF(TTM)11.03
FCFY12.72%
OCF(TTM)15.44
OCFY17.8%
SpS39.8
BVpS30.64
TBVpS12.24
PEG (NY)0.32
PEG (5Y)0.47
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.47% | ||
| ROE | 26.23% | ||
| ROCE | 14.57% | ||
| ROIC | 12.07% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.89% | ||
| OM | 29.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.2% | ||
| GM | 35.6% | ||
| FCFM | 27.72% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
ROICexc(3y)25.05%
ROICexc(5y)19.9%
ROICexgc(3y)32.66%
ROICexgc(5y)25.93%
ROCE(3y)25.11%
ROCE(5y)20.18%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.21%
ROICexcg growth 5Y14.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-12.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y13.25%
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.66 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.07 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 78.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 11.06% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 137.25% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.44 |
F-Score7
WACC8.34%
ROIC/WACC1.45
Cap/Depr(3y)55.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)51.85%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.13%
Profit Quality(3y)131.22%
Profit Quality(5y)188.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)26.01%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%2.17%
EPS Next Y35.82%
EPS Next 2Y5.57%
EPS Next 3Y2.46%
EPS Next 5Y5.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.53%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%20.23%
Revenue Next Year15.6%
Revenue Next 2Y4.65%
Revenue Next 3Y2.36%
Revenue Next 5Y3.56%
EBIT growth 1Y14.33%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.81%
EBIT growth 5Y12.87%
EBIT Next Year64.85%
EBIT Next 3Y11.41%
EBIT Next 5Y8.39%
FCF growth 1Y-34.92%
FCF growth 3Y-9.42%
FCF growth 5Y9.75%
OCF growth 1Y-22.7%
OCF growth 3Y-7.54%
OCF growth 5Y8.58%