CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:CF - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1252691001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
CF gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 84 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. CF gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. CF has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CF had positive earnings in the past year.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years CF has been profitable.
CF had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
CF has a Return On Assets of 10.04%. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 95.24% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 27.95%, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 96.43% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 12.60%, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 94.05% of the companies in the same industry.
CF had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 20.79%. This is significantly above the industry average of 6.84%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (12.60%) for CF is well below the 3 year average (20.79%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that CF had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.04% | ||
| ROE | 27.95% | ||
| ROIC | 12.6% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of CF (21.80%) is better than 98.81% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CF has grown nicely.
CF's Operating Margin of 30.71% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 95.24% of its industry peers.
CF's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CF has a Gross Margin of 36.20%. This is in the better half of the industry: CF outperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of CF has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.8% | ||
| GM | 36.2% |
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so CF is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CF has less shares outstanding
CF has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
CF has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.65 indicates that CF is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
CF has a better Altman-Z score (2.65) than 73.81% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CF is 1.60, which is an excellent value as it means it would take CF, only 1.60 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 1.60, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 91.67% of the companies in the same industry.
CF has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62. This is a neutral value indicating CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
CF has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.62) which is in line with its industry peers.
Even though the debt/equity ratio score it not favorable for CF, it has very limited outstanding debt, so we won't put too much weight on the DE evaluation.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.6 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.65 |
ROIC/WACC1.46
WACC8.62%
2.3 Liquidity
CF has a Current Ratio of 2.59. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF has a Current ratio of 2.59. This is in the better half of the industry: CF outperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
CF has a Quick Ratio of 2.22. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
CF has a better Quick ratio (2.22) than 80.95% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 2.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.22 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 17.06% over the past year.
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 24.81% yearly.
CF shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 0.66%.
CF shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 5.28% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.06%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%120%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.66%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 5.56% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, CF will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.42% on average per year.
EPS Next Y14.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue Next Year8.93%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.54, CF is valued correctly.
CF's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. CF is cheaper than 72.62% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.35, CF is valued a bit cheaper.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 16.48, which indicates a correct valuation of CF.
CF's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
CF's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.19.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.48 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CF is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.95% of the companies are valued more expensively.
90.48% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CF, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.25 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of CF may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)0.55
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CF has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.99%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.75, CF has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.42, CF has a dividend comparable with the average S&P500 company.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
5.2 History
The dividend of CF is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 10.99%!
CF has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
5.3 Sustainability
CF pays out 26.42% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of CF is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP26.42%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
100.36
+0.05 (+0.05%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners104.45%
Inst Owner Change0.53%
Ins Owners0.74%
Ins Owner Change0.32%
Market Cap16.26B
Analysts70.34
Price Target90.73 (-9.6%)
Short Float %5.22%
Short Ratio3.09
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.99% |
Yearly Dividend2.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
DP26.42%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)20.9%
Min EPS beat(2)13.26%
Max EPS beat(2)28.54%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)18.36%
Min EPS beat(4)9.97%
Max EPS beat(4)28.54%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)6.6%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)2.37%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-12.57%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)2.05%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.52%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)1.62%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.52%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.34%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.43%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.54%
PT rev (1m)0.66%
PT rev (3m)-2.34%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.29%
EPS NQ rev (3m)9.92%
EPS NY rev (1m)6.9%
EPS NY rev (3m)22.09%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.11%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)5.84%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.29%
Revenue NY rev (3m)4.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.54 | ||
| Fwd PE | 16.48 | ||
| P/S | 2.65 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.74 | ||
| P/OCF | 6.74 | ||
| P/B | 3.4 | ||
| P/tB | 9.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.25 |
EPS(TTM)7.41
EY7.38%
EPS(NY)6.09
Fwd EY6.07%
FCF(TTM)11.48
FCFY11.44%
OCF(TTM)14.89
OCFY14.83%
SpS37.83
BVpS29.5
TBVpS11.04
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)0.55
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.04% | ||
| ROE | 27.95% | ||
| ROCE | 15.22% | ||
| ROIC | 12.6% | ||
| ROICexc | 14.21% | ||
| ROICexgc | 19.55% | ||
| OM | 30.71% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 21.8% | ||
| GM | 36.2% | ||
| FCFM | 30.35% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
ROICexc(3y)25.05%
ROICexc(5y)19.9%
ROICexgc(3y)32.66%
ROICexgc(5y)25.93%
ROCE(3y)25.11%
ROCE(5y)20.18%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.21%
ROICexcg growth 5Y14.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-12.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y13.25%
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.46
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.6 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.07 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 61.81% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.01% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 86.92% | ||
| Profit Quality | 139.22% | ||
| Current Ratio | 2.59 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.22 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.65 |
F-Score7
WACC8.62%
ROIC/WACC1.46
Cap/Depr(3y)55.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)51.85%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.13%
Profit Quality(3y)131.22%
Profit Quality(5y)188.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)17.06%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%120%
EPS Next Y14.3%
EPS Next 2Y-1.9%
EPS Next 3Y1.51%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.66%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%13.13%
Revenue Next Year8.93%
Revenue Next 2Y2.63%
Revenue Next 3Y2%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
EBIT growth 1Y8.54%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.81%
EBIT growth 5Y12.87%
EBIT Next Year49.45%
EBIT Next 3Y11.37%
EBIT Next 5Y13.57%
FCF growth 1Y-36.99%
FCF growth 3Y-9.42%
FCF growth 5Y9.75%
OCF growth 1Y-29.29%
OCF growth 3Y-7.54%
OCF growth 5Y8.58%