CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC (CF) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:CF - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1252691001 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, CF scores 8 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. CF was compared to 85 industry peers in the Chemicals industry. CF has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. CF is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! This makes CF very considerable for value and quality investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
CF had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year CF had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years CF has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years CF had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of CF (9.47%) is better than 96.47% of its industry peers.
CF's Return On Equity of 26.23% is amongst the best of the industry. CF outperforms 96.47% of its industry peers.
CF has a better Return On Invested Capital (12.07%) than 91.76% of its industry peers.
CF had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 20.79%. This is significantly above the industry average of 6.56%.
The 3 year average ROIC (20.79%) for CF is well above the current ROIC(12.07%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.47% | ||
| ROE | 26.23% | ||
| ROIC | 12.07% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of CF (20.20%) is better than 97.65% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CF has grown nicely.
With an excellent Operating Margin value of 29.21%, CF belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.29% of the companies in the same industry.
CF's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 35.60%, CF is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 70.59% of the companies in the same industry.
CF's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 29.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.2% | ||
| GM | 35.6% |
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CF is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for CF has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, CF has less shares outstanding
CF has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.42 indicates that CF is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
CF has a Altman-Z score of 2.42. This is in the better half of the industry: CF outperforms 70.59% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of CF is 1.66, which is an excellent value as it means it would take CF, only 1.66 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
CF has a Debt to FCF ratio of 1.66. This is amongst the best in the industry. CF outperforms 89.41% of its industry peers.
CF has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.60. This is a neutral value indicating CF is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
CF has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.60. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: CF outperforms 56.47% of its industry peers.
Although CF does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.66 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.42 |
ROIC/WACC1.37
WACC8.79%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 3.22 indicates that CF has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of CF (3.22) is better than 85.88% of its industry peers.
CF has a Quick Ratio of 2.84. This indicates that CF is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 2.84, CF belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 88.24% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 3.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.84 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CF shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 26.01%, which is quite impressive.
Measured over the past years, CF shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 24.81% on average per year.
The Revenue has grown by 9.53% in the past year. This is quite good.
Measured over the past years, CF shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.28% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)26.01%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%2.17%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.53%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%20.23%
3.2 Future
CF is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 5.56% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 3.42% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y14.6%
EPS Next 2Y-1.54%
EPS Next 3Y0.72%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue Next Year11%
Revenue Next 2Y3.71%
Revenue Next 3Y2.32%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 11.43, which indicates a very decent valuation of CF.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, CF is valued cheaper than 83.53% of the companies in the same industry.
CF is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.93, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
CF is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.90.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Forward Earnings ratio as CF.
CF's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 35.31.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.9 |
4.2 Price Multiples
CF's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. CF is cheaper than 94.12% of the companies in the same industry.
92.94% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than CF, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 7.73 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.11 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
CF has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.78
PEG (5Y)0.46
EPS Next 2Y-1.54%
EPS Next 3Y0.72%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.31%, CF has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.74, CF pays a bit more dividend than its industry peers.
CF's Dividend Yield is comparable with the S&P500 average which is at 2.39.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.31% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of CF grows each year by 10.99%, which is quite nice.
CF has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
CF has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
5.3 Sustainability
26.34% of the earnings are spent on dividend by CF. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
CF's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP26.34%
EPS Next 2Y-1.54%
EPS Next 3Y0.72%
85.27
-1.15 (-1.33%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryChemicals
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners104.21%
Inst Owner Change-1%
Ins Owners0.71%
Ins Owner Change2.19%
Market Cap13.81B
Analysts69.29
Price Target98.05 (14.99%)
Short Float %4.96%
Short Ratio2.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.31% |
Yearly Dividend2.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.99%
DP26.34%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years19
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)9.14%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.26%
Max EPS beat(2)28.54%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)10.38%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.26%
Max EPS beat(4)28.54%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)3.23%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.54%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)-11.42%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)4.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)2.66%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.52%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)2.36%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.42%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.52%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.53%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.92%
Revenue beat(16)6
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.07%
PT rev (1m)8.07%
PT rev (3m)8.78%
EPS NQ rev (1m)19.34%
EPS NQ rev (3m)69.49%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)21.02%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)4.9%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)14.04%
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.81%
Revenue NY rev (3m)6.51%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.43 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.9 | ||
| P/S | 2.14 | ||
| P/FCF | 7.73 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.53 | ||
| P/B | 2.78 | ||
| P/tB | 6.97 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.11 |
EPS(TTM)7.46
EY8.75%
EPS(NY)6.14
Fwd EY7.2%
FCF(TTM)11.03
FCFY12.94%
OCF(TTM)15.43
OCFY18.1%
SpS39.79
BVpS30.63
TBVpS12.23
PEG (NY)0.78
PEG (5Y)0.46
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.47% | ||
| ROE | 26.23% | ||
| ROCE | 14.57% | ||
| ROIC | 12.07% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.88% | ||
| ROICexgc | 18.89% | ||
| OM | 29.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.2% | ||
| GM | 35.6% | ||
| FCFM | 27.72% |
ROA(3y)14.93%
ROA(5y)10.97%
ROE(3y)39.12%
ROE(5y)31.36%
ROIC(3y)20.79%
ROIC(5y)16.71%
ROICexc(3y)25.05%
ROICexc(5y)19.9%
ROICexgc(3y)32.66%
ROICexgc(5y)25.93%
ROCE(3y)25.11%
ROCE(5y)20.18%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-11.21%
ROICexcg growth 5Y14.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y-12.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y13.25%
OM growth 3Y-4.8%
OM growth 5Y7.21%
PM growth 3Y13.52%
PM growth 5Y13.82%
GM growth 3Y-1.74%
GM growth 5Y6.25%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover0.47
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.6 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.66 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.07 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 78.96% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 11.06% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 137.25% | ||
| Current Ratio | 3.22 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 2.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.42 |
F-Score7
WACC8.79%
ROIC/WACC1.37
Cap/Depr(3y)55.57%
Cap/Depr(5y)51.85%
Cap/Sales(3y)6.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)7.13%
Profit Quality(3y)131.22%
Profit Quality(5y)188.35%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)26.01%
EPS 3Y13.85%
EPS 5Y24.81%
EPS Q2Q%2.17%
EPS Next Y14.6%
EPS Next 2Y-1.54%
EPS Next 3Y0.72%
EPS Next 5Y5.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)9.53%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.17%
Revenue growth 5Y5.28%
Sales Q2Q%20.23%
Revenue Next Year11%
Revenue Next 2Y3.71%
Revenue Next 3Y2.32%
Revenue Next 5Y3.42%
EBIT growth 1Y14.33%
EBIT growth 3Y-7.81%
EBIT growth 5Y12.87%
EBIT Next Year56.13%
EBIT Next 3Y11.66%
EBIT Next 5Y13.57%
FCF growth 1Y-34.92%
FCF growth 3Y-9.42%
FCF growth 5Y9.75%
OCF growth 1Y-22.7%
OCF growth 3Y-7.54%
OCF growth 5Y8.58%