BLUE BIRD CORP (BLBD) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NASDAQ:BLBD - Nasdaq - US0953061068 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, BLBD scores 6 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. BLBD was compared to 128 industry peers in the Machinery industry. BLBD has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. A decent growth rate in combination with a cheap valuation! Better keep an eye on BLBD. With these ratings, BLBD could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year BLBD was profitable.
BLBD had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: BLBD reported negative net income in multiple years.
The reported operating cash flow has been mixed in the past 5 years: BLBD reported negative operating cash flow in multiple years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of BLBD (19.89%) is better than 99.22% of its industry peers.
BLBD has a Return On Equity of 56.80%. This is amongst the best in the industry. BLBD outperforms 97.66% of its industry peers.
BLBD's Return On Invested Capital of 28.98% is amongst the best of the industry. BLBD outperforms 98.44% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 19.89% | ||
| ROE | 56.8% | ||
| ROIC | 28.98% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)3.41%
ROE(3y)-1048.58%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
BLBD has a better Profit Margin (7.97%) than 61.72% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of BLBD has grown nicely.
BLBD has a Operating Margin of 9.74%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: BLBD outperforms 51.56% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of BLBD has grown nicely.
BLBD has a Gross Margin of 19.18%. This is in the lower half of the industry: BLBD underperforms 75.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of BLBD has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.97% | ||
| GM | 19.18% |
OM growth 3Y121.61%
OM growth 5Y19.19%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y26.86%
GM growth 3Y21.73%
GM growth 5Y7.73%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), BLBD is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, BLBD has more shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, BLBD has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for BLBD has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 5.83 indicates that BLBD is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 5.83, BLBD belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 81.25% of the companies in the same industry.
BLBD has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.07. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.07 years to pay back of all of its debts.
BLBD has a better Debt to FCF ratio (1.07) than 85.16% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.46 indicates that BLBD is not too dependend on debt financing.
BLBD has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.46) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.46 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.07 | ||
| Altman-Z | 5.83 |
ROIC/WACC2.88
WACC10.07%
2.3 Liquidity
BLBD has a Current Ratio of 1.45. This is a normal value and indicates that BLBD is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.45, BLBD is not doing good in the industry: 77.34% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
BLBD has a Quick Ratio of 1.45. This is a bad value and indicates that BLBD is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
BLBD's Quick ratio of 0.73 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. BLBD is outperformed by 82.81% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.45 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 22.76% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 16.38% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, BLBD shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 7.57% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, BLBD shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.74% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)22.76%
EPS 3Y123.91%
EPS 5Y16.38%
EPS Q2Q%7.87%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.57%
Revenue growth 3Y25.35%
Revenue growth 5Y5.74%
Sales Q2Q%3.74%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, BLBD will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.83% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 6.99% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y11.4%
EPS Next 2Y10.42%
EPS Next 3Y6.83%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year9.16%
Revenue Next 2Y8.58%
Revenue Next 3Y5.57%
Revenue Next 5Y6.99%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 11.75, the valuation of BLBD can be described as reasonable.
88.28% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than BLBD, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of BLBD to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.34), we can say BLBD is valued rather cheaply.
BLBD is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.86.
87.50% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than BLBD, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.19, BLBD is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.86 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, BLBD is valued a bit cheaper than 79.69% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, BLBD is valued a bit cheaper than 75.78% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.13 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.71 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of BLBD may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.03
PEG (5Y)0.72
EPS Next 2Y10.42%
EPS Next 3Y6.83%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
BLBD does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
41.84
+0.03 (+0.07%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupCapital Goods
GICS IndustryMachinery
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners118.16%
Inst Owner Change6.32%
Ins Owners0.58%
Ins Owner Change3.34%
Market Cap1.32B
Analysts83.08
Price Target52.6 (25.72%)
Short Float %15.99%
Short Ratio11.46
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.8%
Max EPS beat(2)10.53%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)24.77%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.8%
Max EPS beat(4)74.11%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)53.29%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)-95.09%
EPS beat(16)10
Avg EPS beat(16)-86.39%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.57%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.19%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.55%
Min Revenue beat(4)-0.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)3.87%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)4.08%
Revenue beat(12)8
Avg Revenue beat(12)5.72%
Revenue beat(16)10
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.68%
PT rev (1m)-2.7%
PT rev (3m)-2.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.69%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.07%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)1.65%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.2%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.75%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.75 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.86 | ||
| P/S | 0.97 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.13 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.95 | ||
| P/B | 6.94 | ||
| P/tB | 10.24 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.71 |
EPS(TTM)3.56
EY8.51%
EPS(NY)4.24
Fwd EY10.14%
FCF(TTM)2.76
FCFY6.61%
OCF(TTM)3.5
OCFY8.37%
SpS42.96
BVpS6.03
TBVpS4.08
PEG (NY)1.03
PEG (5Y)0.72
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 19.89% | ||
| ROE | 56.8% | ||
| ROCE | 41.65% | ||
| ROIC | 28.98% | ||
| ROICexc | 49.31% | ||
| ROICexgc | 73.58% | ||
| OM | 9.74% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.97% | ||
| GM | 19.18% | ||
| FCFM | 6.44% |
ROA(3y)4.43%
ROA(5y)3.41%
ROE(3y)-1048.58%
ROE(5y)N/A
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y220.13%
ROICexcg growth 5Y10.5%
ROICexc growth 3Y207.87%
ROICexc growth 5Y19.73%
OM growth 3Y121.61%
OM growth 5Y19.19%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y26.86%
GM growth 3Y21.73%
GM growth 5Y7.73%
F-Score8
Asset Turnover2.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.46 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.07 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.59 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 152.12% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 1.71% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 12.82 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 75.01% | ||
| Profit Quality | 80.71% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.45 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.73 | ||
| Altman-Z | 5.83 |
F-Score8
WACC10.07%
ROIC/WACC2.88
Cap/Depr(3y)67.41%
Cap/Depr(5y)84.95%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.9%
Cap/Sales(5y)1.33%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)22.76%
EPS 3Y123.91%
EPS 5Y16.38%
EPS Q2Q%7.87%
EPS Next Y11.4%
EPS Next 2Y10.42%
EPS Next 3Y6.83%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.57%
Revenue growth 3Y25.35%
Revenue growth 5Y5.74%
Sales Q2Q%3.74%
Revenue Next Year9.16%
Revenue Next 2Y8.58%
Revenue Next 3Y5.57%
Revenue Next 5Y6.99%
EBIT growth 1Y7.72%
EBIT growth 3Y177.79%
EBIT growth 5Y26.04%
EBIT Next Year39.1%
EBIT Next 3Y15.18%
EBIT Next 5Y14.15%
FCF growth 1Y249.42%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y36.54%
OCF growth 1Y248.76%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5Y14.81%