AMERICAN EXPRESS CO (AXP) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:AXP - US0258161092 - Common Stock
330.24 USD
-0.24 (-0.07%)
330.24 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to AXP. AXP was compared to 55 industry peers in the Consumer Finance industry. There are concerns on the financial health of AXP while its profitability can be described as average. While showing a medium growth rate, AXP is valued expensive at the moment.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year AXP was profitable.
AXP had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
AXP had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years AXP had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
AXP has a Return On Assets of 3.39%. This is in the better half of the industry: AXP outperforms 67.27% of its industry peers.
AXP has a Return On Equity of 31.00%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AXP outperforms 92.73% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 3.62%, AXP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.73% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AXP is significantly below the industry average of 10.98%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.39% | ||
| ROE | 31% | ||
| ROIC | 3.62% |
ROA(3y)3.36%
ROA(5y)3.17%
ROE(3y)30.79%
ROE(5y)28.26%
ROIC(3y)3.64%
ROIC(5y)3.45%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 13.38%, AXP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 60.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AXP has remained more or less at the same level.
AXP's Operating Margin of 17.21% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. AXP outperforms 65.45% of its industry peers.
AXP's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 61.37%, AXP is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.82% of the companies in the same industry.
AXP's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 17.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.38% | ||
| GM | 61.37% |
OM growth 3Y-8.78%
OM growth 5Y-0.57%
PM growth 3Y-8.37%
PM growth 5Y-0.22%
GM growth 3Y-2.58%
GM growth 5Y-1.09%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), AXP is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for AXP has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, AXP has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, AXP has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 0.84, we must say that AXP is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
With a Altman-Z score value of 0.84, AXP perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.18% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of AXP is 18.84, which is on the high side as it means it would take AXP, 18.84 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
AXP has a Debt to FCF ratio of 18.84. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AXP outperforms 47.27% of its industry peers.
AXP has a Debt/Equity ratio of 6.47. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 6.47, AXP is not doing good in the industry: 76.36% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 18.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.84 |
ROIC/WACC0.36
WACC10.03%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.71 indicates that AXP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AXP has a Current ratio of 0.71. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: AXP outperforms 43.64% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.71 indicates that AXP may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
AXP has a Quick ratio (0.71) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 11.85% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 10.27% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
Looking at the last year, AXP shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 5.28% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, AXP shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 8.79% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)11.85%
EPS 3Y10.15%
EPS 5Y10.27%
EPS Q2Q%16.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.28%
Revenue growth 3Y17.95%
Revenue growth 5Y8.79%
Sales Q2Q%9.32%
3.2 Future
AXP is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 10.40% yearly.
AXP is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 7.38% yearly.
EPS Next Y15.9%
EPS Next 2Y14.31%
EPS Next 3Y13.8%
EPS Next 5Y10.4%
Revenue Next Year8.56%
Revenue Next 2Y8.44%
Revenue Next 3Y8.27%
Revenue Next 5Y7.38%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 23.17 indicates a rather expensive valuation of AXP.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of AXP indicates a slightly more expensive valuation: AXP is more expensive than 70.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.86, AXP is valued at the same level.
AXP is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 18.93.
65.45% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AXP, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
AXP's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 23.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.93 |
4.2 Price Multiples
AXP's Enterprise Value to EBITDA is on the same level as the industry average.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as AXP.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 20.71 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.77 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AXP's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The decent profitability rating of AXP may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as AXP's earnings are expected to grow with 13.80% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)1.46
PEG (5Y)2.26
EPS Next 2Y14.31%
EPS Next 3Y13.8%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AXP has a yearly dividend return of 0.99%, which is pretty low.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 4.39, AXP has a dividend in line with its industry peers.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.44, AXP's dividend is way lower than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.99% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AXP is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 10.33%!
AXP has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
AXP has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.33%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years20
5.3 Sustainability
21.24% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AXP. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
AXP's earnings are growing around the same pace than its dividend. As long as the earnings growth is kept the dividend growth is sustainable.
DP21.24%
EPS Next 2Y14.31%
EPS Next 3Y13.8%
330.24
-0.24 (-0.07%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryConsumer Finance
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners65.31%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.09%
Ins Owner Change-1.68%
Market Cap229.81B
Analysts67.22
Price Target327.57 (-0.81%)
Short Float %1.78%
Short Ratio3.83
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.99% |
Yearly Dividend2.81
Dividend Growth(5Y)10.33%
DP21.24%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years20
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)3.98%
Min EPS beat(2)3.86%
Max EPS beat(2)4.09%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)3.06%
Min EPS beat(4)-0.95%
Max EPS beat(4)5.25%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)4.96%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)2.05%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)5.08%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.49%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.18%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.76%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.19%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.18%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.2%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)0.83%
Revenue beat(16)7
Avg Revenue beat(16)2.19%
PT rev (1m)1.09%
PT rev (3m)9.66%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-0.91%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.05%
EPS NY rev (3m)0.65%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.28%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.4%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 18.93 | ||
| P/S | 3.07 | ||
| P/FCF | 20.71 | ||
| P/OCF | 17.55 | ||
| P/B | 7.11 | ||
| P/tB | 7.11 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 15.77 |
EPS(TTM)14.25
EY4.32%
EPS(NY)17.44
Fwd EY5.28%
FCF(TTM)15.94
FCFY4.83%
OCF(TTM)18.82
OCFY5.7%
SpS107.62
BVpS46.43
TBVpS46.43
PEG (NY)1.46
PEG (5Y)2.26
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.39% | ||
| ROE | 31% | ||
| ROCE | 9.87% | ||
| ROIC | 3.62% | ||
| ROICexc | 4.55% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.06% | ||
| OM | 17.21% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.38% | ||
| GM | 61.37% | ||
| FCFM | 14.82% |
ROA(3y)3.36%
ROA(5y)3.17%
ROE(3y)30.79%
ROE(5y)28.26%
ROIC(3y)3.64%
ROIC(5y)3.45%
ROICexc(3y)4.36%
ROICexc(5y)4.08%
ROICexgc(3y)4.66%
ROICexgc(5y)4.41%
ROCE(3y)9.86%
ROCE(5y)9.06%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-4.54%
ROICexcg growth 5Y1.68%
ROICexc growth 3Y-3.59%
ROICexc growth 5Y1.93%
OM growth 3Y-8.78%
OM growth 5Y-0.57%
PM growth 3Y-8.37%
PM growth 5Y-0.22%
GM growth 3Y-2.58%
GM growth 5Y-1.09%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 6.47 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 18.84 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 14.31 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 115.88% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.62% | ||
| Profit Quality | 110.76% | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.71 | ||
| Altman-Z | 0.84 |
F-Score5
WACC10.03%
ROIC/WACC0.36
Cap/Depr(3y)107.59%
Cap/Depr(5y)102%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.77%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.15%
Profit Quality(3y)195.73%
Profit Quality(5y)177.62%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)11.85%
EPS 3Y10.15%
EPS 5Y10.27%
EPS Q2Q%16.91%
EPS Next Y15.9%
EPS Next 2Y14.31%
EPS Next 3Y13.8%
EPS Next 5Y10.4%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)5.28%
Revenue growth 3Y17.95%
Revenue growth 5Y8.79%
Sales Q2Q%9.32%
Revenue Next Year8.56%
Revenue Next 2Y8.44%
Revenue Next 3Y8.27%
Revenue Next 5Y7.38%
EBIT growth 1Y6.08%
EBIT growth 3Y7.6%
EBIT growth 5Y8.16%
EBIT Next Year45.1%
EBIT Next 3Y10%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-25%
FCF growth 3Y-2.5%
FCF growth 5Y0.25%
OCF growth 1Y-20.57%
OCF growth 3Y-1.37%
OCF growth 5Y0.61%