AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC (AVB) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:AVB - US0534841012 - REIT
194.12 USD
+2.11 (+1.1%)
194.12 USD
0 (0%)
AVB gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 20 industry peers in the Residential REITs industry. AVB scores excellent on profitability, but there are concerns on its financial health. AVB is valied quite expensively at the moment, while it does show a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
AVB had positive earnings in the past year.
AVB had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years AVB has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years AVB always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of AVB (5.30%) is better than 85.00% of its industry peers.
AVB has a better Return On Equity (9.69%) than 85.00% of its industry peers.
AVB's Return On Invested Capital of 3.49% is amongst the best of the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for AVB is in line with the industry average of 2.61%.
The 3 year average ROIC (3.44%) for AVB is below the current ROIC(3.49%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.3% | ||
| ROE | 9.69% | ||
| ROIC | 3.49% |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
1.3 Margins
AVB has a Profit Margin of 38.84%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AVB outperforms 90.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of AVB has grown nicely.
AVB has a Operating Margin of 30.87%. This is amongst the best in the industry. AVB outperforms 95.00% of its industry peers.
AVB's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With an excellent Gross Margin value of 63.00%, AVB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 85.00% of the companies in the same industry.
AVB's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 30.87% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.84% | ||
| GM | 63% |
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so AVB is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, AVB has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
The number of shares outstanding for AVB has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for AVB has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
AVB has an Altman-Z score of 1.92. This is not the best score and indicates that AVB is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 1.92, AVB belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.00% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.73 indicates that AVB is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.73, AVB is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 75.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
ROIC/WACC0.47
WACC7.36%
2.3 Liquidity
AVB has a Current Ratio of 0.10. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
AVB's Current ratio of 0.10 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. AVB is outperformed by 75.00% of its industry peers.
AVB has a Quick Ratio of 0.10. This is a bad value and indicates that AVB is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of AVB (0.10) is worse than 70.00% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.1 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
AVB shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 37.56%, which is quite impressive.
AVB shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 6.12% yearly.
AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 4.92%.
Measured over the past years, AVB shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.62% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)37.56%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%5.62%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.92%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.75%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -2.56% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, AVB will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 6.29% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-21.5%
EPS Next 2Y-13.21%
EPS Next 3Y-6.63%
EPS Next 5Y-2.56%
Revenue Next Year4.78%
Revenue Next 2Y4.92%
Revenue Next 3Y5.11%
Revenue Next 5Y6.29%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
AVB is valuated rather expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 23.88.
95.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than AVB, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
AVB's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a similar valuation than the S&P500 average which is at 27.14.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 33.96, AVB can be considered very expensive at the moment.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, AVB is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of AVB to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.80), we can say AVB is valued slightly more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.96 |
4.2 Price Multiples
65.00% of the companies in the same industry are cheaper than AVB, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.98 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
AVB has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
AVB's earnings are expected to decrease with -6.63% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.9
EPS Next 2Y-13.21%
EPS Next 3Y-6.63%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
AVB has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.68%.
AVB's Dividend Yield is slightly below the industry average, which is at 4.79.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.34, AVB pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.68% |
5.2 History
The dividend of AVB has a limited annual growth rate of 2.45%.
AVB has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
AVB has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
5.3 Sustainability
84.31% of the earnings are spent on dividend by AVB. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of AVB has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP84.31%
EPS Next 2Y-13.21%
EPS Next 3Y-6.63%
194.12
+2.11 (+1.1%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryResidential REITs
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners96.36%
Inst Owner Change-4.15%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change6.2%
Market Cap27.64B
Analysts72.59
Price Target223.44 (15.1%)
Short Float %2.3%
Short Ratio3.65
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.68% |
Yearly Dividend6.77
Dividend Growth(5Y)2.45%
DP84.31%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years26
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)35.39%
Min EPS beat(2)23.58%
Max EPS beat(2)47.2%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)47.51%
Min EPS beat(4)23.58%
Max EPS beat(4)78.32%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)31.65%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)34.92%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)33.04%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.96%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Max Revenue beat(2)-0.86%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.98%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.14%
Max Revenue beat(4)-0.85%
Revenue beat(8)0
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.84%
Revenue beat(12)0
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.72%
Revenue beat(16)2
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.97%
PT rev (1m)-4.74%
PT rev (3m)-5.64%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.12%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-4.17%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.45%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.49%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.24%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.07%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23.88 | ||
| Fwd PE | 33.96 | ||
| P/S | 9.27 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 17.18 | ||
| P/B | 2.31 | ||
| P/tB | 2.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.98 |
EPS(TTM)8.13
EY4.19%
EPS(NY)5.72
Fwd EY2.94%
FCF(TTM)-3.23
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.3
OCFY5.82%
SpS20.94
BVpS83.91
TBVpS83.91
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)3.9
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.3% | ||
| ROE | 9.69% | ||
| ROCE | 4.41% | ||
| ROIC | 3.49% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.5% | ||
| ROICexgc | 3.5% | ||
| OM | 30.87% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 38.84% | ||
| GM | 63% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.06%
ROA(5y)4.9%
ROE(3y)9%
ROE(5y)8.77%
ROIC(3y)3.44%
ROIC(5y)3.18%
ROICexc(3y)3.5%
ROICexc(5y)3.24%
ROICexgc(3y)3.51%
ROICexgc(5y)3.24%
ROCE(3y)4.35%
ROCE(5y)4.03%
ROICexcg growth 3Y11.75%
ROICexcg growth 5Y0.03%
ROICexc growth 3Y11.82%
ROICexc growth 5Y0.06%
OM growth 3Y5.59%
OM growth 5Y-2.68%
PM growth 3Y-5.32%
PM growth 5Y1.91%
GM growth 3Y0.2%
GM growth 5Y-1.16%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.14
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.73 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.83 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 235.87% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 69.41% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 3.81 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 89.5% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.1 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.92 |
F-Score6
WACC7.36%
ROIC/WACC0.47
Cap/Depr(3y)183.94%
Cap/Depr(5y)179.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)55.28%
Cap/Sales(5y)55.46%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)37.56%
EPS 3Y17.41%
EPS 5Y6.12%
EPS Q2Q%5.62%
EPS Next Y-21.5%
EPS Next 2Y-13.21%
EPS Next 3Y-6.63%
EPS Next 5Y-2.56%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)4.92%
Revenue growth 3Y8.28%
Revenue growth 5Y4.62%
Sales Q2Q%4.75%
Revenue Next Year4.78%
Revenue Next 2Y4.92%
Revenue Next 3Y5.11%
Revenue Next 5Y6.29%
EBIT growth 1Y0.93%
EBIT growth 3Y14.34%
EBIT growth 5Y1.82%
EBIT Next Year79.77%
EBIT Next 3Y26.6%
EBIT Next 5Y17.25%
FCF growth 1Y-7774.93%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y5.52%
OCF growth 3Y10.15%
OCF growth 5Y4%