ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
48.67 USD
-1.31 (-2.62%)
48.6 USD
-0.07 (-0.14%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to ALK. ALK was compared to 22 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. While ALK is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ALK has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ALK had positive earnings in the past year.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years were profitable.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ALK has a Return On Assets of 0.75%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 59.09% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 3.72%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
With a Return On Invested Capital value of 3.28%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALK is below the industry average of 8.38%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of ALK (1.06%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
ALK has a Operating Margin of 4.26%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 59.09% of its industry peers.
ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ALK has a Gross Margin (55.33%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ALK is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has less shares outstanding
ALK has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ALK has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.18, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
ALK has a Altman-Z score (1.18) which is in line with its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12 is on the high side and indicates that ALK has dependencies on debt financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.12, ALK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.18 |
ROIC/WACC0.39
WACC8.41%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.52 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.52, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 45.45% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.49 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.49, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ALK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -27.51%.
ALK shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -5.48% yearly.
The Revenue has grown by 31.50% in the past year. This is a very strong growth!
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.97% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
3.2 Future
ALK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 19.82% yearly.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 11.67% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-55.08%
EPS Next 2Y7.66%
EPS Next 3Y19.82%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year21.83%
Revenue Next 2Y14.43%
Revenue Next 3Y11.67%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 16.06, ALK is valued correctly.
ALK's Price/Earnings ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. ALK is cheaper than 68.18% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 27.25, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 8.66, which indicates a very decent valuation of ALK.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a rather cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ALK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.98, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
ALK's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ALK is cheaper than 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 19.82% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y7.66%
EPS Next 3Y19.82%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ALK does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
48.67
-1.31 (-2.62%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.48%
Inst Owner Change0.02%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-1.19%
Market Cap5.65B
Revenue(TTM)14.14B
Net Income(TTM)150.00M
Analysts82.86
Price Target66.81 (37.27%)
Short Float %7.01%
Short Ratio2.27
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)30.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)15.26%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)13.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.23%
PT rev (1m)0.1%
PT rev (3m)-3.4%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-34.86%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-86.5%
EPS NY rev (1m)-7.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)-33.24%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.38%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.48%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.2%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.13%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16.06 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.66 | ||
| P/S | 0.4 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 4.22 | ||
| P/B | 1.4 | ||
| P/tB | 11.83 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY6.23%
EPS(NY)5.62
Fwd EY11.55%
FCF(TTM)-0.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.54
OCFY23.7%
SpS121.92
BVpS34.74
TBVpS4.11
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number48.66
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROCE | 4.52% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.82% | ||
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 177.1% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 2.77 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.33% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.18 |
F-Score6
WACC8.41%
ROIC/WACC0.39
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
EPS Next Y-55.08%
EPS Next 2Y7.66%
EPS Next 3Y19.82%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
Revenue Next Year21.83%
Revenue Next 2Y14.43%
Revenue Next 3Y11.67%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year70.92%
EBIT Next 3Y41.57%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.04%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y20.32%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.
Can you provide the valuation status for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 16.06 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.4.
Is the dividend of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC sustainable?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.