ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
41.73 USD
+1.03 (+2.53%)
41.86 USD
+0.13 (+0.31%)
ALK gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. While ALK is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. ALK is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ALK was profitable.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ALK had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ALK has a Return On Assets of 0.75%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 3.72%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK has a Return On Invested Capital (3.28%) which is in line with its industry peers.
ALK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.24%. This is significantly below the industry average of 14.30%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ALK's Profit Margin of 1.06% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.26%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ALK has declined.
With a Gross Margin value of 55.33%, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ALK is destroying value.
ALK has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ALK has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
ALK has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ALK has an Altman-Z score of 1.15. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ALK has a Altman-Z score (1.15) which is in line with its industry peers.
ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.12. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.12, ALK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.15 |
ROIC/WACC0.42
WACC7.9%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.52 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of ALK (0.52) is worse than 61.90% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.49 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.49, ALK perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.86% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ALK shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -27.51%.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been decreasing by -5.48% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, ALK shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 31.50%.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.97% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 20.11% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 11.56% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-38.12%
EPS Next 2Y10.44%
EPS Next 3Y20.11%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year22.2%
Revenue Next 2Y14.29%
Revenue Next 3Y11.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 13.77, the valuation of ALK can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.11, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.05, the valuation of ALK can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a rather cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 90.48% of the companies listed in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 22.55. ALK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.05 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.15 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A more expensive valuation may be justified as ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 20.11% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y10.44%
EPS Next 3Y20.11%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ALK!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
41.73
+1.03 (+2.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.09%
Inst Owner Change-2.61%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-0.41%
Market Cap4.81B
Revenue(TTM)14.14B
Net Income(TTM)150.00M
Analysts82
Price Target65.71 (57.46%)
Short Float %7.37%
Short Ratio2.79
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)3.23%
Min EPS beat(2)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)30.21%
Min EPS beat(4)-7.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)25.85%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)15.26%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)13.56%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.26%
Min Revenue beat(2)-0.71%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-0.15%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.4%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.23%
PT rev (1m)-5.53%
PT rev (3m)2.45%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-37.7%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-38.9%
EPS NY rev (1m)-8.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)-19.59%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.67%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.75%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.17%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.45%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.77 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.05 | ||
| P/S | 0.34 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.6 | ||
| P/B | 1.19 | ||
| P/tB | 10.09 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.15 |
EPS(TTM)3.03
EY7.26%
EPS(NY)5.92
Fwd EY14.17%
FCF(TTM)-0.47
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)11.6
OCFY27.81%
SpS122.63
BVpS34.94
TBVpS4.14
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Graham Number48.81
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.75% | ||
| ROE | 3.72% | ||
| ROCE | 4.52% | ||
| ROIC | 3.28% | ||
| ROICexc | 3.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 5.82% | ||
| OM | 4.26% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 1.06% | ||
| GM | 55.33% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexgc growth 3YN/A
ROICexgc growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.71
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.12 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 3.82 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 238.77% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 9.84% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 112.82% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.15 |
F-Score5
WACC7.9%
ROIC/WACC0.42
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-27.51%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-53.33%
EPS Next Y-38.12%
EPS Next 2Y10.44%
EPS Next 3Y20.11%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)31.5%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%22.59%
Revenue Next Year22.2%
Revenue Next 2Y14.29%
Revenue Next 3Y11.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-26.46%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year94.04%
EBIT Next 3Y43.4%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y91.04%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y20.32%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC / ALK FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 4 / 10 to ALK.
What is the valuation status of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) stock?
ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) has a profitability rating of 4 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ALK stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 13.77 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.19.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for ALK stock?
The dividend rating of ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) is 0 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 0%.