ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
48.46 USD
-0.73 (-1.48%)
48.4592 USD
0 (0%)
ALK gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. There are concerns on the financial health of ALK while its profitability can be described as average. ALK has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ALK was profitable.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years were profitable.
ALK had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
ALK has a better Return On Assets (1.57%) than 66.67% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Equity value of 7.94%, ALK is doing good in the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of ALK (4.44%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ALK is significantly below the industry average of 14.49%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.57% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROIC | 4.44% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
ALK has a Profit Margin of 2.33%. This is in the better half of the industry: ALK outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ALK has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 5.99%, ALK is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.14% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 56.32%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.33% | ||
| GM | 56.32% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ALK is destroying value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has less shares outstanding
ALK has about the same amout of shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, ALK has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
ALK has an Altman-Z score of 1.17. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
ALK has a Altman-Z score (1.17) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.14. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
ALK has a better Debt to Equity ratio (1.14) than 61.90% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.14 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.17 |
ROIC/WACC0.55
WACC8.1%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 0.52 indicates that ALK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 0.52, ALK is not doing good in the industry: 66.67% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 12.50% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -5.48% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, ALK shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 27.81%.
Measured over the past years, ALK shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 5.97% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.5%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-30.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.81%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%27.86%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 23.64% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, ALK will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 11.47% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-32.71%
EPS Next 2Y13.39%
EPS Next 3Y23.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year22%
Revenue Next 2Y14.15%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 11.46 indicates a reasonable valuation of ALK.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 71.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ALK's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.90.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 7.77, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of ALK.
76.19% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ALK, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 23.36. ALK is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.46 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.77 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 71.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.64 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 23.64% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y13.39%
EPS Next 3Y23.64%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ALK does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
48.46
-0.73 (-1.48%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners91.09%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners0.57%
Ins Owner Change-0.33%
Market Cap5.59B
Analysts82
Price Target69.16 (42.72%)
Short Float %5.79%
Short Ratio2.46
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.24%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)32.84%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.47%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)16.3%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)14.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.91%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.58%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.16%
PT rev (1m)5.63%
PT rev (3m)7.46%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-8.35%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-34.52%
EPS NY rev (1m)-3.47%
EPS NY rev (3m)-16.83%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.32%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.43%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.08%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11.46 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.77 | ||
| P/S | 0.42 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 3.92 | ||
| P/B | 1.42 | ||
| P/tB | 14.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.64 |
EPS(TTM)4.23
EY8.73%
EPS(NY)6.24
Fwd EY12.87%
FCF(TTM)-0.07
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)12.38
OCFY25.54%
SpS116.62
BVpS34.19
TBVpS3.24
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.57% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROCE | 6.12% | ||
| ROIC | 4.44% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.3% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.82% | ||
| OM | 5.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.33% | ||
| GM | 56.32% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.14 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.94 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 198.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 10.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.01 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 93.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.17 |
F-Score6
WACC8.1%
ROIC/WACC0.55
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.5%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-30.2%
EPS Next Y-32.71%
EPS Next 2Y13.39%
EPS Next 3Y23.64%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.81%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%27.86%
Revenue Next Year22%
Revenue Next 2Y14.15%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y4.4%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year94.04%
EBIT Next 3Y43.4%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y98.78%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y40.59%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%