ALASKA AIR GROUP INC (ALK) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ALK - US0116591092 - Common Stock
63.37 USD
-0.49 (-0.77%)
62.8 USD
-0.57 (-0.9%)
Taking everything into account, ALK scores 4 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ALK was compared to 21 industry peers in the Passenger Airlines industry. ALK has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. ALK has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ALK was profitable.
In the past year ALK had a positive cash flow from operations.
ALK had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Of the past 5 years ALK 4 years had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ALK's Return On Assets of 1.57% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ALK outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 7.94%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK has a Return On Invested Capital (4.44%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALK had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 5.24%. This is significantly below the industry average of 14.49%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.57% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROIC | 4.44% |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.33%, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ALK has a Operating Margin of 5.99%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ALK outperforms 57.14% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ALK has declined.
ALK has a Gross Margin of 56.32%. This is in the better half of the industry: ALK outperforms 61.90% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ALK has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 5.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.33% | ||
| GM | 56.32% |
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) below the Cost of Capital (WACC), ALK is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for ALK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ALK has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
ALK has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.24, we must say that ALK is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
The Altman-Z score of ALK (1.24) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
ALK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.14. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.14, ALK is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.90% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.14 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.24 |
ROIC/WACC0.52
WACC8.53%
2.3 Liquidity
ALK has a Current Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK's Current ratio of 0.52 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ALK is outperformed by 66.67% of its industry peers.
ALK has a Quick Ratio of 0.52. This is a bad value and indicates that ALK is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ALK has a Quick ratio (0.49) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an nice 12.50% over the past year.
ALK shows a decrease in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been decreasing by -5.48% yearly.
ALK shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 27.81%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 5.97% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.5%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-30.2%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.81%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%27.86%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 20.60% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
ALK is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 11.53% yearly.
EPS Next Y-30.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.11%
EPS Next 3Y20.6%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year21.93%
Revenue Next 2Y14.25%
Revenue Next 3Y11.53%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
ALK is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.98.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
ALK's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 27.30.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.21, which indicates a very decent valuation of ALK.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ALK is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 66.67% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ALK to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.73), we can say ALK is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.21 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of ALK indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: ALK is cheaper than 61.90% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.76 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ALK's earnings are expected to grow with 20.60% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y13.11%
EPS Next 3Y20.6%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for ALK!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
63.37
-0.49 (-0.77%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryPassenger Airlines
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners99.73%
Inst Owner Change-6.36%
Ins Owners0.58%
Ins Owner Change-0.37%
Market Cap7.31B
Analysts80
Price Target69.56 (9.77%)
Short Float %4.18%
Short Ratio1.88
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DP0%
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)6.24%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.79%
Max EPS beat(2)14.26%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)32.84%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.79%
Max EPS beat(4)116.17%
EPS beat(8)6
Avg EPS beat(8)26.47%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)16.3%
EPS beat(16)12
Avg EPS beat(16)14.83%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.91%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.19%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.5%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.9%
Revenue beat(8)4
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.58%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.57%
Revenue beat(16)9
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.16%
PT rev (1m)6.23%
PT rev (3m)5.49%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-6.77%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-33.19%
EPS NY rev (1m)-9.42%
EPS NY rev (3m)-15.79%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.21%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-1.8%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.22%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.15%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.21 | ||
| P/S | 0.54 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 5.12 | ||
| P/B | 1.85 | ||
| P/tB | 19.54 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.76 |
EPS(TTM)4.23
EY6.68%
EPS(NY)6.2
Fwd EY9.79%
FCF(TTM)-0.07
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)12.38
OCFY19.53%
SpS116.62
BVpS34.19
TBVpS3.24
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 1.57% | ||
| ROE | 7.94% | ||
| ROCE | 6.12% | ||
| ROIC | 4.44% | ||
| ROICexc | 5.3% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.82% | ||
| OM | 5.99% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.33% | ||
| GM | 56.32% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)1.34%
ROA(5y)-0.4%
ROE(3y)5.42%
ROE(5y)-3.09%
ROIC(3y)5.24%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)6.57%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)9.14%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)7.22%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y-7.41%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y-9.28%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y-9.13%
PM growth 3Y-24.24%
PM growth 5Y-17.41%
GM growth 3Y3.86%
GM growth 5Y0.81%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.68
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.14 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.94 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 198.75% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 10.67% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.01 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 93.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.49 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.24 |
F-Score6
WACC8.53%
ROIC/WACC0.52
Cap/Depr(3y)317.88%
Cap/Depr(5y)215.36%
Cap/Sales(3y)14.19%
Cap/Sales(5y)10.61%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.5%
EPS 3Y-6.46%
EPS 5Y-5.48%
EPS Q2Q%-30.2%
EPS Next Y-30.3%
EPS Next 2Y13.11%
EPS Next 3Y20.6%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)27.81%
Revenue growth 3Y23.86%
Revenue growth 5Y5.97%
Sales Q2Q%27.86%
Revenue Next Year21.93%
Revenue Next 2Y14.25%
Revenue Next 3Y11.53%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y4.4%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y-3.7%
EBIT Next Year92.7%
EBIT Next 3Y41.08%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y98.78%
FCF growth 3Y-37.18%
FCF growth 5Y-29.16%
OCF growth 1Y40.59%
OCF growth 3Y12.43%
OCF growth 5Y-3.19%