Market Monitor Trends and Breadth September 04 BMO - Market Breadth Rebounds, But Short-Term Indicators Remain Fragile

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – September 03, 2025 (After Market Close)

All Indexes in sideways range for now

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: CHANGE - Positive (from Neutral)
• Next Support at $640 - $630
• Next Resistance at $650
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Gap Up

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)
• Next Support at $560
• Next Resistance at $583
• Volume: Slightly Above Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Gap Up - Doji Candle

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Positive (no change)
• Next Support at $225 - $230
• Next Resistance at $237
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Doji Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (from neutral)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – September 03, 2025 (After Market Close)

After a sharp decline in participation at the start of the week, market breadth metrics showed some recovery on September 3. However, the rebound lacked conviction, and many short-term indicators still signal a fragile underlying trend. Broader metrics remain stable, but caution is warranted.

Following the breadth deterioration on September 2, the latest data for September 3 shows a partial recovery, albeit with limited strength. Let's break it down.

Daily Metrics

Advancing stocks outpaced decliners with 52.2% vs. 44.9%, reversing the imbalance seen the day before (27.3% vs. 70.6%).

However, strong advancing days (Adv 4% Day) remained modest at 3.1%, and strong decliners (Decl 4% Day) were still at 2.5%. These muted extremes suggest a rebound lacking strong conviction.

The percentage of stocks above key SMAs barely moved:

• SMA(20): 59.2% (up from 56%)

• SMA(50): 65% (up slightly)

• SMA(100): 71.6% (flat)

• SMA(200): 59.8% (also flat)

This suggests consolidation rather than momentum.

New Highs / New Lows

• New Highs (NH): 3.3% (slightly up from 2.8%)

• New Lows (NL): 1.1% (unchanged)

The NH/NL spread improved slightly but remains far from bullish territory.

Weekly Advances/Declines:

• Adv Week: 37.9%

• Decl Week: 60.7%

This confirms that, over the past week, breadth still favors decliners.

Medium- to Long-Term Breadth

The broader trend continues to stabilize:

• Adv Month: 67.7% (slightly up from 65%)

• Decl Month: 31.5% (down from 34.2%)

• Adv 3 Month: 70.3%

• Decl 3 Month: 28.8%

• Adv 25% 3 Month: 13.8%

• Decl 25% 3 Month: 6%

These numbers support a longer-term uptrend, though the most aggressive performers (top 25%) remain a relatively small group.

Comparison to Previous Analysis (Sept 2, 2025)

In the previous article, breadth was rated as negative, following a sharp drop in daily participation and a broad-based decline in short-term metrics. The current data shows a rebound, but the limited strength in advancing 4% days, static SMA readings, and weak weekly breadth suggest this is more a pause or bounce than a convincing turn.

Importantly, this recovery doesn’t fully offset the recent weakness, and short-term breadth remains under pressure, though broader metrics (monthly and 3-month) are still in decent shape.

Breadth Trend Rating: 3 – Neutral

While the broader trend metrics remain intact, the short-term weakness and modest rebound imply a neutral stance is most appropriate. This could evolve quickly in either direction depending on follow-through in the coming days.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor News, September 04 BMO