Market Monitor Trends and Breadth August 6 BMO - Market Breadth Cools Slightly After Strong Start to the Week

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – August 5, 2025 (After Market Close)

Minor losses for QQQ and SPY, IWM rose +0.50%

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)
• Next Support at $620 - $600
• Next Resistance at $640
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $550 - $540
• Next Resistance at $575
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)
• Next Support at $220 - $215
• Next Resistance at $226
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Up Day - Hanging Man Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – August 5, 2025 (After Market Close)

Following an impressive risk-on session on Monday, August 4, where a broad majority of stocks advanced (80.4%) and upside momentum surged, Tuesday’s session (August 5) showed a cooling off, with advancing stocks falling back to 49.7%. However, this wasn’t a broad sell-off, it looked more like a pause after a strong move.

Key Observations:

1. Advancers vs. Decliners

• Advancers: 49.7% | Decliners: 46.9%

• Advancers >4%: 4.6% | Decliners >4%: 2.9%

Compared to Monday, where 80.4% of stocks were up, this was a clear drop in participation. But rather than a reversal, this reads more like consolidation. The percentage of stocks making strong moves >4% dipped slightly, but no extreme downside moves appeared either.

2. Moving Average Participation

• SMA(20)+: 42.3% (flat vs. Monday)

• SMA(50)+: 60.6%

• SMA(100)+: 67.3%

• SMA(200)+: 51.6%

These metrics remained largely unchanged from Monday and still support a constructive medium-term trend. Over half of all stocks remain above their 200-day average—a key longer-term bullish sign.

3. New Highs vs. New Lows

• New Highs: 2.5% | New Lows: 1.2%

New highs ticked up slightly again, continuing a trend from Monday. New lows stayed low, reinforcing the idea that downside pressure is not expanding.

4. Short-Term Breadth

• Pivot Points (PP): 26.9% (vs. 28.6% on Monday)

• Advancing on the Week: 36.1%

• Declining on the Week: 62.9%

The weekly trend remains negative, despite Monday’s burst of strength. That said, Tuesday’s numbers didn’t worsen the weekly breadth, they merely confirmed that we’re still in recovery mode.

5. Medium- to Long-Term Breadth

• 1. 1-Month Advancers: 49.6% | Decliners: 49.8% → Neutral

• 3-Month Advancers: 70.2% | Decliners: 29.2%

• Advancers >25% (3 Months): 16%

These figures confirm strong underlying strength over the longer term, with around 70% of stocks higher over the past 3 months and a rising number gaining >25%. The short-term chop is not damaging that structure—for now.

Comparison to August 4, 2025 (Monday):

Monday delivered one of the strongest single-day breadth readings in weeks, and the follow-up action on Tuesday did not erase those gains.

While momentum cooled, participation held up relatively well. This validates what we observed yesterday: breadth had turned sharply positive, but needed confirmation. Tuesday’s pause is neither bullish nor bearish on its own, but does not invalidate Monday’s strength.

Breadth Trend Rating: 3 – Neutral

While Monday’s surge lifted breadth to bullish territory, Tuesday’s session pulled participation back to a more neutral footing. However, the lack of deterioration in longer-term metrics and the resilience above key moving averages suggests that the bulls are still in control, but not in a dominant position.

Momentum is building, but not yet convincing.

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Kristoff - ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor News, August 6