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UPSTART HOLDINGS INC (UPST) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NASDAQ:UPST - Nasdaq - US91680M1071 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

50.08  +2.39 (+5.01%)

After market: 50.5 +0.42 (+0.84%)

Fundamental Rating

3

UPST gets a fundamental rating of 3 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 52 industry peers in the Consumer Finance industry. UPST scores quite bad on profitability, while its financial health is fine. Not spectacular, but in line with the averages. UPST is valued quite expensive, but it does show an excellent growth.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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1

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year UPST has reported negative net income.
In the past year UPST had a positive cash flow from operations.
The reported net income has been mixed in the past 5 years: UPST reported negative net income in multiple years.
In multiple years UPST reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
UPST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFUPST Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 -200M -400M -600M

1.2 Ratios

UPST has a Return On Assets of -5.43%. This is amonst the worse of the industry: UPST underperforms 86.54% of its industry peers.
With a Return On Equity value of -20.31%, UPST is not doing good in the industry: 86.54% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -5.43%
ROE -20.31%
ROIC N/A
ROA(3y)-7.65%
ROA(5y)-2.85%
ROE(3y)-24.76%
ROE(5y)-11.1%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
UPST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICUPST Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 10 -10 -20 -30

1.3 Margins

UPST has a better Gross Margin (75.18%) than 69.23% of its industry peers.
UPST's Gross Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
UPST does not have Profit Margin and Operating Margin available, so we won't be analyzing them here.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 75.18%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.13%
GM growth 5Y-2.29%
UPST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsUPST Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20 -20 40 -40 60 80

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4

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

UPST does not have a ROIC to compare to the WACC, probably because it is not profitable.
UPST has more shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for UPST has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
UPST has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
UPST Yearly Shares OutstandingUPST Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20M 40M 60M 80M
UPST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsUPST Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

2.2 Solvency

UPST has an Altman-Z score of 1.62. This is a bad value and indicates that UPST is not financially healthy and even has some risk of bankruptcy.
UPST has a better Altman-Z score (1.62) than 67.31% of its industry peers.
UPST has a debt to FCF ratio of 7.95. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as UPST would need 7.95 years to pay back of all of its debts.
UPST has a Debt to FCF ratio (7.95) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
UPST has a Debt/Equity ratio of 2.21. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
UPST has a Debt to Equity ratio of 2.21. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: UPST outperforms 51.92% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.21
Debt/FCF 7.95
Altman-Z 1.62
ROIC/WACCN/A
WACC7.71%
UPST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFUPST Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 500M -500M 1B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 2.68 indicates that UPST has no problem at all paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of UPST (2.68) is better than 75.00% of its industry peers.
UPST has a Quick Ratio of 2.68. This indicates that UPST is financially healthy and has no problem in meeting its short term obligations.
UPST has a Quick ratio of 2.68. This is in the better half of the industry: UPST outperforms 76.92% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 2.68
Quick Ratio 2.68
UPST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesUPST Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

UPST shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 50.88%, which is quite impressive.
The Revenue has grown by 16.17% in the past year. This is quite good.
UPST shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 31.84% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.88%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%336.36%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.17%
Revenue growth 3Y-7.39%
Revenue growth 5Y31.84%
Sales Q2Q%30.38%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 86.05% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
The Revenue is expected to grow by 30.79% on average over the next years. This is a very strong growth
EPS Next Y606.19%
EPS Next 2Y221.08%
EPS Next 3Y136.9%
EPS Next 5Y86.05%
Revenue Next Year67.08%
Revenue Next 2Y43.14%
Revenue Next 3Y34.56%
Revenue Next 5Y30.79%

3.3 Evolution

The Revenue growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
UPST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesUPST Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 500M 1B 1.5B
UPST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesUPST Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 0 1 2 3

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

The Price/Earnings Ratio is negative for UPST. In the last year negative earnings were reported.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 35.33, the valuation of UPST can be described as expensive.
UPST's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is a bit more expensive when compared to the industry. UPST is more expensive than 73.08% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of UPST to the average of the S&P500 Index (20.86), we can say UPST is valued expensively.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 35.33
UPST Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsUPST Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 0 -50 -100 -150

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, UPST is valued a bit more expensive than 63.46% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 27
EV/EBITDA N/A
UPST Per share dataUPST EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 2 4 6

4.3 Compensation for Growth

UPST's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as UPST's earnings are expected to grow with 136.90% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y221.08%
EPS Next 3Y136.9%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

UPST does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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UPSTART HOLDINGS INC

NASDAQ:UPST (5/2/2025, 8:27:05 PM)

After market: 50.5 +0.42 (+0.84%)

50.08

+2.39 (+5.01%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorFinancials
GICS IndustryGroupFinancial Services
GICS IndustryConsumer Finance
Earnings (Last)02-11 2025-02-11/amc
Earnings (Next)05-06 2025-05-06/amc
Inst Owners63.63%
Inst Owner Change0.12%
Ins Owners12.38%
Ins Owner Change7.51%
Market Cap4.76B
Analysts73
Price Target69.94 (39.66%)
Short Float %27.93%
Short Ratio3.94
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)363.64%
Min EPS beat(2)59.83%
Max EPS beat(2)667.46%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)201.51%
Min EPS beat(4)21.24%
Max EPS beat(4)667.46%
EPS beat(8)7
Avg EPS beat(8)107.27%
EPS beat(12)9
Avg EPS beat(12)53.96%
EPS beat(16)13
Avg EPS beat(16)61.71%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)8.33%
Min Revenue beat(2)7.29%
Max Revenue beat(2)9.37%
Revenue beat(4)4
Avg Revenue beat(4)4.37%
Min Revenue beat(4)0.34%
Max Revenue beat(4)9.37%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)1.7%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)3.24%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)3.54%
PT rev (1m)-8.66%
PT rev (3m)19.53%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.1%
EPS NQ rev (3m)634.66%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.04%
EPS NY rev (3m)184.99%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.01%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)9.4%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)23.45%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE N/A
Fwd PE 35.33
P/S 7.48
P/FCF 27
P/OCF 25.55
P/B 7.52
P/tB 8.55
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)-0.28
EYN/A
EPS(NY)1.42
Fwd EY2.83%
FCF(TTM)1.85
FCFY3.7%
OCF(TTM)1.96
OCFY3.91%
SpS6.7
BVpS6.66
TBVpS5.86
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA -5.43%
ROE -20.31%
ROCE N/A
ROIC N/A
ROICexc N/A
ROICexgc N/A
OM N/A
PM (TTM) N/A
GM 75.18%
FCFM 27.7%
ROA(3y)-7.65%
ROA(5y)-2.85%
ROE(3y)-24.76%
ROE(5y)-11.1%
ROIC(3y)N/A
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)N/A
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)N/A
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)N/A
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5YN/A
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5YN/A
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5YN/A
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5YN/A
GM growth 3Y-4.13%
GM growth 5Y-2.29%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.27
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 2.21
Debt/FCF 7.95
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr 48.62%
Cap/Sales 1.57%
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 2.68
Quick Ratio 2.68
Altman-Z 1.62
F-Score6
WACC7.71%
ROIC/WACCN/A
Cap/Depr(3y)88.93%
Cap/Depr(5y)142.32%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.15%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.16%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)50.88%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5YN/A
EPS Q2Q%336.36%
EPS Next Y606.19%
EPS Next 2Y221.08%
EPS Next 3Y136.9%
EPS Next 5Y86.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)16.17%
Revenue growth 3Y-7.39%
Revenue growth 5Y31.84%
Sales Q2Q%30.38%
Revenue Next Year67.08%
Revenue Next 2Y43.14%
Revenue Next 3Y34.56%
Revenue Next 5Y30.79%
EBIT growth 1Y22.17%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5YN/A
EBIT Next Year189.6%
EBIT Next 3Y59.12%
EBIT Next 5Y39.67%
FCF growth 1Y242.44%
FCF growth 3Y4.78%
FCF growth 5Y46.31%
OCF growth 1Y266.8%
OCF growth 3Y3.43%
OCF growth 5Y42.6%