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KELT EXPLORATION LTD (KEL.CA) Stock Fundamental Analysis

TSX:KEL - Toronto Stock Exchange - CA4882951060 - Common Stock - Currency: CAD

6.98  -0.03 (-0.43%)

Fundamental Rating

5

We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to KEL. KEL was compared to 214 industry peers in the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. While KEL belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are concerns on its financial health. KEL has a correct valuation and a medium growth rate.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

7

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

KEL had positive earnings in the past year.
KEL had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
KEL had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
KEL had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
KEL.CA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFKEL.CA Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M -200M

1.2 Ratios

The Return On Assets of KEL (4.02%) is better than 68.16% of its industry peers.
KEL has a Return On Equity (5.30%) which is in line with its industry peers.
KEL's Return On Invested Capital of 4.35% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. KEL outperforms 64.68% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for KEL is above the industry average of 7.73%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.92%) for KEL is well above the current ROIC(4.35%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.02%
ROE 5.3%
ROIC 4.35%
ROA(3y)11.13%
ROA(5y)-1.78%
ROE(3y)14%
ROE(5y)-2.22%
ROIC(3y)10.92%
ROIC(5y)N/A
KEL.CA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICKEL.CA Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 -20 -40

1.3 Margins

KEL has a better Profit Margin (13.54%) than 70.65% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of KEL has grown nicely.
KEL has a Operating Margin of 18.00%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: KEL outperforms 57.21% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of KEL has grown nicely.
The Gross Margin of KEL (56.74%) is better than 71.64% of its industry peers.
KEL's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 18%
PM (TTM) 13.54%
GM 56.74%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y27.72%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y53.83%
GM growth 3Y21.73%
GM growth 5Y1.37%
KEL.CA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsKEL.CA Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 50 -50 -100 -150

3

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so KEL is still creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for KEL has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, KEL has more shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, KEL has an improved debt to assets ratio.
KEL.CA Yearly Shares OutstandingKEL.CA Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 50M 100M 150M
KEL.CA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsKEL.CA Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500M 1B 1.5B

2.2 Solvency

KEL has an Altman-Z score of 2.77. This is not the best score and indicates that KEL is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.77, KEL is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 77.11% of the companies in the same industry.
KEL has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.04. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
KEL's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.04 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. KEL outperforms 73.13% of its industry peers.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.04
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 2.77
ROIC/WACC0.56
WACC7.82%
KEL.CA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFKEL.CA Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 200M 400M 600M 800M 1B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 0.50 indicates that KEL may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
KEL has a worse Current ratio (0.50) than 81.59% of its industry peers.
KEL has a Quick Ratio of 0.50. This is a bad value and indicates that KEL is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.50, KEL is doing worse than 80.60% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 0.5
Quick Ratio 0.5
KEL.CA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesKEL.CA Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20M 40M 60M 80M 100M

5

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The earnings per share for KEL have decreased strongly by -52.56% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, KEL shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 61.27% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, KEL shows a very negative growth in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -11.46% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.01% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-52.56%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y61.27%
EPS Q2Q%-60%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.46%
Revenue growth 3Y30.4%
Revenue growth 5Y4.01%
Sales Q2Q%-6.4%

3.2 Future

KEL is expected to show a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 21.95% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, KEL will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 16.75% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-21.64%
EPS Next 2Y63.57%
EPS Next 3Y21.95%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-9.92%
Revenue Next 2Y16.88%
Revenue Next 3Y16.75%
Revenue Next 5YN/A

3.3 Evolution

Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
KEL.CA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesKEL.CA Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 200M 400M 600M 800M
KEL.CA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesKEL.CA Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 0.5 -0.5 1 -1

5

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

With a Price/Earnings ratio of 24.93, KEL is valued on the expensive side.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Earnings ratio as KEL.
KEL is valuated at similar levels of the S&P average when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 28.35, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.78 indicates a rather cheap valuation of KEL.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, KEL is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.59% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 95.00, KEL is valued rather cheaply.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.93
Fwd PE 5.78
KEL.CA Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsKEL.CA Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 20 40 60 80

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, KEL is valued a bit cheaper than 71.14% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA 6.84
KEL.CA Per share dataKEL.CA EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 0 1 2 3 4 5

4.3 Compensation for Growth

KEL has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as KEL's earnings are expected to grow with 21.95% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.41
EPS Next 2Y63.57%
EPS Next 3Y21.95%

0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

No dividends for KEL!.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

KELT EXPLORATION LTD

TSX:KEL (2/5/2025, 7:00:00 PM)

6.98

-0.03 (-0.43%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorEnergy
GICS IndustryGroupEnergy
GICS IndustryOil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Earnings (Last)11-07 2024-11-07/bmo
Earnings (Next)N/A N/A
Inst Owners34.61%
Inst Owner ChangeN/A
Ins Owners16.66%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap1.37B
Analysts80
Price Target9.52 (36.39%)
Short Float %N/A
Short RatioN/A
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-82.55%
Min EPS beat(2)-82.78%
Max EPS beat(2)-82.32%
EPS beat(4)N/A
Avg EPS beat(4)N/A
Min EPS beat(4)N/A
Max EPS beat(4)N/A
EPS beat(8)N/A
Avg EPS beat(8)N/A
EPS beat(12)N/A
Avg EPS beat(12)N/A
EPS beat(16)N/A
Avg EPS beat(16)N/A
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-20.61%
Min Revenue beat(2)-21.6%
Max Revenue beat(2)-19.62%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-12.16%
Min Revenue beat(4)-21.6%
Max Revenue beat(4)6.01%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-7.62%
Revenue beat(12)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(12)N/A
Revenue beat(16)N/A
Avg Revenue beat(16)N/A
PT rev (1m)5.46%
PT rev (3m)5.46%
EPS NQ rev (1m)100%
EPS NQ rev (3m)100%
EPS NY rev (1m)-27.08%
EPS NY rev (3m)-27.08%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)79.6%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-15.3%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 24.93
Fwd PE 5.78
P/S 3.35
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF 6.13
P/B 1.31
P/tB 1.31
EV/EBITDA 6.84
EPS(TTM)0.28
EY4.01%
EPS(NY)1.21
Fwd EY17.29%
FCF(TTM)-0.38
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.14
OCFY16.31%
SpS2.08
BVpS5.33
TBVpS5.33
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.41
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 4.02%
ROE 5.3%
ROCE 5.77%
ROIC 4.35%
ROICexc 4.35%
ROICexgc 4.35%
OM 18%
PM (TTM) 13.54%
GM 56.74%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)11.13%
ROA(5y)-1.78%
ROE(3y)14%
ROE(5y)-2.22%
ROIC(3y)10.92%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)10.95%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)10.95%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)14.5%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3YN/A
ROICexcg growth 5Y36.69%
ROICexc growth 3YN/A
ROICexc growth 5Y36.69%
OM growth 3YN/A
OM growth 5Y27.72%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y53.83%
GM growth 3Y21.73%
GM growth 5Y1.37%
F-Score3
Asset Turnover0.3
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.04
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA 0.22
Cap/Depr 223.36%
Cap/Sales 73.02%
Interest Coverage 37.89
Cash Conversion 107.76%
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 0.5
Quick Ratio 0.5
Altman-Z 2.77
F-Score3
WACC7.82%
ROIC/WACC0.56
Cap/Depr(3y)247.24%
Cap/Depr(5y)196.2%
Cap/Sales(3y)66.53%
Cap/Sales(5y)72.51%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-52.56%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y61.27%
EPS Q2Q%-60%
EPS Next Y-21.64%
EPS Next 2Y63.57%
EPS Next 3Y21.95%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-11.46%
Revenue growth 3Y30.4%
Revenue growth 5Y4.01%
Sales Q2Q%-6.4%
Revenue Next Year-9.92%
Revenue Next 2Y16.88%
Revenue Next 3Y16.75%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-45.87%
EBIT growth 3YN/A
EBIT growth 5Y32.84%
EBIT Next Year147.26%
EBIT Next 3Y61.07%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-246.77%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-24.05%
OCF growth 3Y68.41%
OCF growth 5Y8.73%