Market Monitor Trends (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and Breadth May 23

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – May 22, 2025 (After Market Close)

The broader market is showing mixed signals across key indices.

QQQ is holding near recent highs after a strong recovery, though it faces overhead resistance just above current levels. SPY also remains in an uptrend but is struggling to push through previous highs.

Meanwhile, IWM (Russell 2000) lags behind, facing firm resistance and failing to reclaim its February/March breakdown levels, indicating relative weakness in small caps.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $570
• Next Resistance at $595
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Doji Candle

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $490
• Next Resistance at $520
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Doji Candle

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $200
• Next Resistance at $205 & $210
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Doji Candle

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – May 22, 2025 (After Market Close)

Advancing vs. Declining Stocks

The percentage of advancing stocks fluctuated considerably over the past week. On May 21, breadth turned extremely bearish with only 12.4% of stocks advancing and a massive 86.4% declining? the worst reading in this period.

This aligns with broad market weakness amid fiscal uncertainty.

market sentiment partially recovered on May 22, with advances rebounding to 45.7%, suggesting a temporary stabilization after the sharp sell-off.

The chart below shows this visually: the steep drop and rebound in the orange "Advancing Stocks" line clearly indicate a volatile market climate.

Moving Average Participation (SMA Breadth)

The percentage of stocks trading above key moving averages (SMA50 and SMA200) gives insight into medium- and long-term trend health.

• SMA(50)+ has been in a slow decline since May 16, dropping from 71.6% to 62.4% by May 22, showing weakening intermediate-term momentum.

• SMA(200)+ remains relatively stable but low, sitting at 36.8% on May 22, indicating that fewer than 4 in 10 stocks remain in long-term uptrends.

The second chart illustrates this trend degradation clearly, especially in SMA(50), which is more sensitive to recent market conditions.

Short-Term Momentum

Advance 4% Day and Decline 4% Day reveal strong individual stock moves. These readings remained low except on May 12 (20.9% advancing 4%+), suggesting limited participation in powerful breakouts.

The lack of widespread 4%+ gainers despite rebounds hints that the recovery lacks conviction.

New Highs vs. New Lows (NH/NL)

• New highs (NH) have mostly stayed below 5% of stocks, with a low of 1.2% on May 22.

• New lows (NL) remain subdued as well, suggesting the broader market isn't in full breakdown mode, despite recent selling pressure.

Longer-Term Breadth (Weekly & Monthly)

Advancing Week and Advancing Month metrics remain mostly strong, especially into May 20–21, suggesting that despite the volatility, broader longer-term trends are still intact for many stocks.

However, Declining Month and Declining 3-Month readings are climbing slightly, and the percentage of stocks declining >25% over 3 months remains stubbornly high (above 10% in every session), indicating underlying weakness.

Summary

• Short-Term: Market showed extreme weakness on May 21 but rebounded partially the following day.

• Medium-Term: Fewer stocks remain above key moving averages, especially the 50-day SMA.

• Long-Term: Conditions are mixed, some strength remains, but an increasing number of stocks are down significantly from their 3-month highs.

Outlook:

The market is in a cautious phase with waning momentum. Sustained strength in breadth indicators—especially SMA(50)+ and New Highs—will be needed to confirm any bullish reversal. Conversely, rising declines and weak participation in rallies may lead to renewed selling pressure.

Next to read: ChartMill Monitor News, May 23