MACY'S INC (M) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:M - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US55616P1049 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall M gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. We evaluated M against 28 industry peers in the Broadline Retail industry. There are concerns on the financial health of M while its profitability can be described as average. M is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. M also has an excellent dividend rating.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
M had positive earnings in the past year.
M had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
M had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
M had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
M has a better Return On Assets (3.47%) than 60.71% of its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of M (12.54%) is better than 67.86% of its industry peers.
The Return On Invested Capital of M (5.73%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
M had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 8.32%. This is below the industry average of 11.32%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.47% | ||
| ROE | 12.54% | ||
| ROIC | 5.73% |
ROA(3y)3.6%
ROA(5y)-0.67%
ROE(3y)14.24%
ROE(5y)-14.45%
ROIC(3y)8.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
1.3 Margins
M has a Profit Margin of 2.45%. This is in the better half of the industry: M outperforms 60.71% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of M has grown nicely.
M has a Operating Margin (3.86%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
M's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of M (40.40%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
M's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.86% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.45% | ||
| GM | 40.4% |
OM growth 3Y-23.39%
OM growth 5Y-2.37%
PM growth 3Y-23.51%
PM growth 5Y2.59%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y0.08%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is below the Cost of Capital (WACC), so M is destroying value.
The number of shares outstanding for M has been increased compared to 1 year ago.
M has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for M has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.47 indicates that M is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.47, M is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.00% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of M is 10.90, which is on the high side as it means it would take M, 10.90 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 10.90, M perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 46.43% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.62 indicates that M is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
M has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.62. This is in the lower half of the industry: M underperforms 67.86% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.9 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.47 |
ROIC/WACC0.68
WACC8.42%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.43 indicates that M should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
M has a Current ratio of 1.43. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: M outperforms 42.86% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.37 indicates that M may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
M has a Quick ratio of 0.37. This is amonst the worse of the industry: M underperforms 89.29% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.37 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for M have decreased strongly by -20.69% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been decreasing by -1.93% on average over the past years.
M shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -3.77%.
The Revenue has been decreasing by -1.91% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.69%
EPS 3Y-21.03%
EPS 5Y-1.93%
EPS Q2Q%-40.74%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.77%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.11%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.91%
Sales Q2Q%-5.1%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, M will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 0.55% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to decrease by -4.47% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-31.69%
EPS Next 2Y-16.04%
EPS Next 3Y-10.19%
EPS Next 5Y0.55%
Revenue Next Year-5.01%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.89%
Revenue Next 3Y-4.47%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 4.79, which indicates a rather cheap valuation of M.
92.86% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than M, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of M to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.41), we can say M is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 6.51 indicates a rather cheap valuation of M.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, M is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.86% of the companies are valued more expensively.
M is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 33.87, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.51 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, M is valued cheaper than 92.86% of the companies in the same industry.
M's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. M is cheaper than 71.43% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 12.9 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.91 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
A cheap valuation may be justified as M's earnings are expected to decrease with -10.19% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
EPS Next 2Y-16.04%
EPS Next 3Y-10.19%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
M has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.02%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 13.88, M pays a better dividend. On top of this M pays more dividend than 96.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.39, M pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.02% |
5.2 History
The dividend of M decreases each year by -14.36%.
M has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
M has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.36%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
34.95% of the earnings are spent on dividend by M. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
DP34.95%
EPS Next 2Y-16.04%
EPS Next 3Y-10.19%
12.11
+0.03 (+0.25%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustryBroadline Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners89.38%
Inst Owner Change1.15%
Ins Owners0.18%
Ins Owner Change1.79%
Market Cap3.29B
Analysts55
Price Target13.5 (11.48%)
Short Float %8.47%
Short Ratio3.02
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.02% |
Yearly Dividend0.7
Dividend Growth(5Y)-14.36%
DP34.95%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)11.85%
Min EPS beat(2)8.59%
Max EPS beat(2)15.11%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)50.03%
Min EPS beat(4)8.59%
Max EPS beat(4)105.43%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)637.43%
EPS beat(12)12
Avg EPS beat(12)442.79%
EPS beat(16)16
Avg EPS beat(16)388.43%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.55%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.2%
Max Revenue beat(2)0.11%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.81%
Min Revenue beat(4)-5.44%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.11%
Revenue beat(8)1
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.26%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.11%
Revenue beat(16)8
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.83%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)2.7%
EPS NQ rev (1m)1.02%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-47.71%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-11.28%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.06%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.49%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.51%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.79 | ||
| Fwd PE | 6.51 | ||
| P/S | 0.14 | ||
| P/FCF | 12.9 | ||
| P/OCF | 3.03 | ||
| P/B | 0.74 | ||
| P/tB | 1.03 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 2.91 |
EPS(TTM)2.53
EY20.89%
EPS(NY)1.86
Fwd EY15.37%
FCF(TTM)0.94
FCFY7.75%
OCF(TTM)4
OCFY33%
SpS83.96
BVpS16.39
TBVpS11.78
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)N/A
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 3.47% | ||
| ROE | 12.54% | ||
| ROCE | 7.51% | ||
| ROIC | 5.73% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.23% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.04% | ||
| OM | 3.86% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.45% | ||
| GM | 40.4% | ||
| FCFM | 1.12% |
ROA(3y)3.6%
ROA(5y)-0.67%
ROE(3y)14.24%
ROE(5y)-14.45%
ROIC(3y)8.32%
ROIC(5y)N/A
ROICexc(3y)9.11%
ROICexc(5y)N/A
ROICexgc(3y)11.15%
ROICexgc(5y)N/A
ROCE(3y)10.9%
ROCE(5y)N/A
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.28%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.61%
ROICexc growth 3Y-26.03%
ROICexc growth 5Y2.34%
OM growth 3Y-23.39%
OM growth 5Y-2.37%
PM growth 3Y-23.51%
PM growth 5Y2.59%
GM growth 3Y-0.48%
GM growth 5Y0.08%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.42
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.62 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 10.9 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.57 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 93.89% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 3.64% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.78 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 61.54% | ||
| Profit Quality | 45.7% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.43 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.37 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.47 |
F-Score7
WACC8.42%
ROIC/WACC0.68
Cap/Depr(3y)120.64%
Cap/Depr(5y)95.76%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.37%
Cap/Sales(5y)3.61%
Profit Quality(3y)262.85%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-20.69%
EPS 3Y-21.03%
EPS 5Y-1.93%
EPS Q2Q%-40.74%
EPS Next Y-31.69%
EPS Next 2Y-16.04%
EPS Next 3Y-10.19%
EPS Next 5Y0.55%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-3.77%
Revenue growth 3Y-3.11%
Revenue growth 5Y-1.91%
Sales Q2Q%-5.1%
Revenue Next Year-5.01%
Revenue Next 2Y-3.89%
Revenue Next 3Y-4.47%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-30.07%
EBIT growth 3Y-25.78%
EBIT growth 5Y-4.23%
EBIT Next Year65.75%
EBIT Next 3Y16.76%
EBIT Next 5Y12.64%
FCF growth 1Y79.58%
FCF growth 3Y-42.79%
FCF growth 5Y-2.57%
OCF growth 1Y-26.29%
OCF growth 3Y-22.18%
OCF growth 5Y-4.49%