GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO (GPK)
US3886891015 - Common Stock
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to GPK. GPK was compared to 23 industry peers in the Containers & Packaging industry. While GPK has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. GPK has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GPK was profitable.
GPK had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years GPK has been profitable.
In the past 5 years GPK always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 6.47%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 26.00%, GPK belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GPK (11.27%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GPK is in line with the industry average of 8.25%.
The 3 year average ROIC (8.49%) for GPK is below the current ROIC(11.27%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.47% | ||
| ROE | 26% | ||
| ROIC | 11.27% |
ROA(3y)4.49%
ROA(5y)3.69%
ROE(3y)20.36%
ROE(5y)17.2%
ROIC(3y)8.49%
ROIC(5y)7.98%
1.3 Margins
GPK has a Profit Margin of 7.67%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GPK outperforms 91.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
The Operating Margin of GPK (13.68%) is better than 91.30% of its industry peers.
GPK's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GPK has a better Gross Margin (22.90%) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GPK has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 13.68% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.67% | ||
| GM | 22.9% |
OM growth 3Y15.3%
OM growth 5Y11.76%
PM growth 3Y44.34%
PM growth 5Y15.9%
GM growth 3Y10.94%
GM growth 5Y7.71%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GPK is creating some value.
The number of shares outstanding for GPK has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GPK has more shares outstanding
GPK has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GPK has an Altman-Z score of 1.98. This is not the best score and indicates that GPK is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GPK has a Altman-Z score (1.98) which is in line with its industry peers.
GPK has a debt to FCF ratio of 15.80. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GPK would need 15.80 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GPK (15.80) is worse than 78.26% of its industry peers.
GPK has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.66. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GPK has a Debt to Equity ratio (1.66) which is in line with its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.66 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 15.8 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.98 |
ROIC/WACC1.6
WACC7.06%
2.3 Liquidity
GPK has a Current Ratio of 1.10. This is a normal value and indicates that GPK is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GPK has a worse Current ratio (1.10) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.42 indicates that GPK may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 0.42, GPK is not doing good in the industry: 91.30% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GPK shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 24.79%, which is quite impressive.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 28.92% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
Looking at the last year, GPK shows a decrease in Revenue. The Revenue has decreased by -0.13% in the last year.
GPK shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 9.35% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)24.79%
EPS 3Y38.04%
EPS 5Y28.92%
EPS growth Q2Q27.12%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.85%
Revenue growth 5Y9.35%
Revenue growth Q2Q-5.74%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GPK will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 3.78% on average per year.
GPK is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 2.57% yearly.
EPS Next Y-6.33%
EPS Next 2Y0.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.78%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year-0.5%
Revenue Next 2Y0.79%
Revenue Next 3Y2.57%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.35, the valuation of GPK can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 25.20.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.98 indicates a reasonable valuation of GPK.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GPK is valued cheaper than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
GPK is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.63, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.98 |
4.2 Price Multiples
82.61% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GPK, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, GPK is valued a bit more expensive than the industry average as 69.57% of the companies are valued more cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 24.67 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 7.13 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of GPK may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.32
EPS Next 2Y0.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.78%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GPK has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 1.47%.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.02, GPK is paying slightly less dividend.
GPK's Dividend Yield is slightly below the S&P500 average, which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.47% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GPK has a limited annual growth rate of 1.98%.
GPK has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GPK has not decreased its dividend in the past 5 years, so it has a somewhat stable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)1.98%
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years5
5.3 Sustainability
17.01% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GPK. This is a low number and sustainable payout ratio.
GPK's earnings are growing more than its dividend. This makes the dividend growth sustainable.
DP17.01%
EPS Next 2Y0.12%
EPS Next 3Y3.78%
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO
NYSE:GPK (4/25/2024, 7:04:00 PM)
After market: 27.3 0 (0%)27.3
-0.11 (-0.4%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorMaterials
GICS IndustryGroupMaterials
GICS IndustryContainers & Packaging
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap8.39B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 1.47% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
Avg EPS beat(4)
Min EPS beat(4)
Max EPS beat(4)
EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
Avg Revenue beat(4)
Min Revenue beat(4)
Max Revenue beat(4)
Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
Avg Revenue beat(12)
Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.35 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.98 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.32
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 6.47% | ||
| ROE | 26% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 13.68% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.67% | ||
| GM | 22.9% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover0.84
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.66 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.1 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.42 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)24.79%
EPS 3Y38.04%
EPS 5Y
EPS growth Q2Q
EPS Next Y-6.33%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-0.13%
Revenue growth 3Y12.85%
Revenue growth 5Y
Revenue growth Q2Q
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y