Market Monitor Trends (SPY, QQQ, IWM) and Breadth June 12

(All data & visualisations by ChartMill.com)

Daily Market Trend Analysis – June 11, 2025 (After Market Close)

SPY and QQQ opened with a gap up but could not hold those opening gains and ended up closing slightly lower.

IWM also ended the trading day slightly negative (-0.4%). However, a bearish engulfing topping pattern was formed.

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $580
• Next Resistance at $610
• Volume: Slightly Below Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $520
• Next Resistance at $540
• Volume: At Average (50)
• Pattern: Down Day

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Next Support at $210 & $205
• Next Resistance at $215 & $230
• Volume: Slightly below Average (50)
• Pattern: Bearish Engulfing Candle, at resistance

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Positive (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)

Daily Market Breadth Analysis – June 11, 2025 (After Market Close)

Reversal from Broad-Based Strength

The latest session (June 11, 2025) showed a clear deterioration in market breadth compared to earlier this week. Only 42.1% of stocks advanced, down sharply from 64.9% the previous day and 71.6% on June 6.

Decliners surged to 55.2%, highlighting the shift in sentiment.

This marks a reversal of the strong participation seen in the prior analysis, where we observed three consecutive days of 63%+ advancing stocks, a signal that bullish momentum may have peaked for now.

Under the Surface: Still Above Support

Despite the weak daily performance, the percentage of stocks trading above key moving averages remains strong:

• SMA(20)+: 72.0%

• SMA(50)+: 78.2%

• SMA(100)+: 58.4%

• SMA(200)+: 44.6%

As shown in the chart, these indicators have been climbing steadily for over a week and have held steady despite today's pullback. This suggests that the recent weakness may still be a pause in an ongoing bullish structure rather than a trend reversal.

Narrowing Highs vs Lows Spread

New Highs (NH) crept up slightly to 4.7%, while New Lows (NL) ticked up to 0.7%. Although still tilted positively, this is the first day in over a week where new lows expanded meaningfully.

Continued erosion here would be a red flag.

Momentum Slowing on Longer Timeframes

While short-term breadth weakened, medium- and long-term trends are beginning to show cracks too:

• Advancing 1-week: 69.6% (down from 73.8% on June 9)

• Advancing 1-month: 63.4% (down from 72.3% on June 4)

• Advancing 3-month: 59.1% (flattish)

• Adv. 25% over 3-month: 11.3% (holding steady)

This cooling momentum, especially over 1-week and 1-month horizons, reflects a market digesting prior gains.

Interpretation & Outlook

The market breadth picture on June 11 signals a short-term pullback, not (yet) a breakdown. While fewer stocks participated in gains today, most remain above key moving averages, and longer-term momentum is holding. However, the declining trend in new highs and flattening of 3-month leaders warrants caution.

From the June 10 analysis, where we noted broad and sustained strength, we now face a “cooling-off” period that could evolve into either a healthy consolidation, or something more corrective, depending on whether breadth resumes upward.

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Next to read: Market Monitor News, June 12