Market Monitor News June 18 (Jabil, Reddit & Verve Therapeutics UP - Solar Stocks First Solar, Sunrun & SolarEdge DOWN)

Geopolitical chaos, weakening economic signals, a Fed in waiting mode… and yet, Wall Street keeps its composure.

It never ceases to amaze me how investors manage to stay calm while the world seems to teeter on the edge of crisis. But don’t be fooled, the surface might look smooth, but there’s tension brewing underneath.

War? Priced in... Mostly.

The growing conflict between Israel and Iran hasn’t caused the markets to panic, at least not yet. Even when President Trump called for the “unconditional surrender” of Iran’s leader Khamenei and sent US warships closer to the region, Wall Street merely flinched.

The Dow Jones dipped 0.7%, the Nasdaq shed 0.9%. Hardly a meltdown, more like a wary glance over the shoulder.

But let’s be honest, this conflict hasn’t been fully priced in. And that’s what makes it dangerous.

Strategists like Kenny Polacari (Slatestone) are right to say that the market will stay on edge until some form of calm returns to the Middle East. All it takes is one misstep for that cautious calm to snap.

The economy is whisperingand it’s not good news

Beyond the geopolitical headlines, there are troubling signs in the US economy. Retail sales dropped 0.9% last month, the second straight decline.

The main culprit? A sharp pullback in car purchases, after a temporary surge in March as consumers rushed to beat import tariffs.

That hesitation isn’t just on the consumer side. Industrial production dipped 0.2% in May, housing market confidence continued its downward slope, and inventories remained flat. In short: the engine is still running, but it’s starting to sputter.

This all adds up to a Federal Reserve that’s likely to stay on hold, especially with oil prices climbing and no clear end to the Middle East tension. The market now expects the first rate cut not before the fall. And honestly, who can blame them?

Oil doesn’t lie

WTI crude jumped 4% to $72.86, Brent hit $76.02. That’s not just noise, that’s the market’s built-in geopolitical alarm system going off. Swissquote Bank nailed it: if oil keeps rising due to conflict risk, don’t expect the Fed to blink any time soon.

The strong oil prices also help the US dollar, given America’s status as one of the world’s top oil producers. The EUR/USD slipped 0.5% to 1.1481. It’s all part of the same story: when tensions flare, the dollar flexes.

AI’s golden child, solar’s hangover

While the macro picture looks shaky, some stocks still manage to stand out, for better or worse.

Reddit (RDDT | +6.05%) caught a solid bid after announcing AI-driven advertising tools. The company is doubling down on “community marketing,” letting brands tap into the platform’s authentic discussion spaces.

It’s classic Reddit, riding the AI hype while selling its forum data to train large language models. After last year’s IPO hype cooled off, this could be the boost they needed.

In contrast, the solar sector just got hammered. Trump’s proposed budget includes a full phase-out of tax credits for solar and wind by 2028 and markets didn’t take that lightly.

Enphase Energy (ENPH | -23.97%), First Solar (FSLR | -17.89%), Sunrun (RUN | -40.04%), and SolarEdge (SEDG | -33.44%) all got crushed. No mercy and no floor in sight if policy winds shift further.

M&A buzz: Biotech’s Hail Mary

One bright spot was Verve Therapeutics (VERV | +81.50%), which skyrocketed after reports that Eli Lilly (LLY | -2.02%) is in advanced talks to acquire it for up to $1.3 billion. Rumor has it Lilly could pay nearly $1B upfront, with another $300 million tied to clinical milestones. That’s one way to make gene editing sexy again.

On the flip side, Lennar (LEN | -4.46%) disappointed with weaker profit and revenue, confirming the housing market is still very much in the weeds.

Palantir (PLTR | -2.27%) also slipped after closing at an all-time high Monday, classic "buy the rumor, sell the chart."

Jabil (JBL | +8.89%) released its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results before the market opened, setting the tone for the stock’s performance that day. Revenue saw a solid 16% year-over-year increase, reaching just over $7.8 billion and easily surpassing the average analyst forecast of $7 billion.

Final thought

If you’re looking for clear signals in this market, you’re going to be disappointed. We’re in a holding pattern, politically, economically, and emotionally. Investors aren’t panicking, but they sure as hell aren’t charging ahead either.

It’s a market that’s waiting for a rate cut, a truce, a sign. Until then, keep your powder dry and your stops tight. Because when things break, they tend to break fast.

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Kristoff - Co-Founder ChartMill

Next to read: Market Monitor Trends & Breadth Analysis, June 18