Market Monitor April 30 ( Honeywell, Pfizer, UP - Spotify, Starbucks DOWN)

Wall Street Climbs as Confidence Dips and Rate Cut Hopes Rise

U.S. markets closed higher on Tuesday, extending a recent winning streak, as investors digested a mix of corporate earnings, softening consumer sentiment, and renewed speculation that interest rate cuts could be on the horizon.

The S&P 500 added 0.6%, its sixth consecutive daily gain. The Dow Jones rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq advanced 0.5%.

A notable driver of optimism was a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield, which fell five basis points to 4.17%, reflecting growing belief that the Federal Reserve may need to lower rates to prevent a slowdown.

That belief was reinforced by fresh data showing U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply in April, hitting its lowest level since May 2020. The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped nearly eight points to 86, marking its fifth straight monthly decline — the longest losing streak since 2008.

All three key outlook components — business conditions, job prospects, and future income — declined significantly, signaling deepening consumer pessimism. Concerns about inflation, tariffs on foreign goods, and the broader economic outlook appear to be weighing on sentiment.

Despite the gloomy mood among consumers, equity markets found strength in a series of corporate earnings that beat expectations or offered resilient guidance, though not all results were met with investor enthusiasm.

Earnings: Mixed Reactions Across Sectors

Honeywell (HON | +5.4%) surged more than 5% after reporting better-than-expected earnings per share of $2.51, with strength in its aerospace division helping offset the impact of tariffs. The company modestly raised its full-year profit guidance and reaffirmed its strategy to spin off multiple business units into standalone entities by late 2026.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE | +3.21%) also gained 3.2% after posting adjusted Q1 earnings of $0.92 per share, well ahead of analyst forecasts. Although revenue declined, the company maintained its full-year outlook, while noting that the guidance does not yet account for potential pricing changes.

Streaming platform Spotify (SPOT | -3.48%) had a record quarter in terms of operating profit (€509 million), but shares dropped 3.5% as the results fell short of lofty analyst expectations and the company warned of near-term "noise" in its financials. Despite the selloff, the stock remains up significantly over the past year.

Visa (V | +1.19%) posted higher-than-expected revenue but missed profit forecasts, with earnings of $4.6 billion — 2% lower year-over-year — coming in well below expectations. Still, its stock gained 2.2% in after-hours trading, as the company highlighted resilient consumer spending and teased upcoming AI-driven product initiatives.

Meanwhile, Starbucks (SBUX | +1.13%) disappointed on both top and bottom lines. Same-store sales dipped 1%, and the coffee chain posted adjusted earnings of $0.41 per share versus estimates of $0.49. The stock slipped 6.5% in after-hours trading, though CEO Brian Niccol expressed confidence in the company’s turnaround efforts.

Autos and Trade Policy in Focus

The automotive sector saw mixed results. General Motors (GM | -0.64%) pulled its full-year outlook due to uncertainty around new import tariffs, sending its shares down 0.6%.

Ford (F | +1.3%) and Stellantis (STLA | +2.46%), by contrast, edged higher after reports suggested that the White House may be considering reductions in certain auto-related tariffs.

UPS (UPS | -0.37%) also drew attention, beating earnings expectations but announcing 20,000 job cuts due to declining volumes from its biggest customer, Amazon, amid economic headwinds.

On the trade front, investors took note of comments from White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who hinted that the Trump administration is nearing multiple trade agreements, particularly with Asian partners — though no specific countries were named.

Looking Ahead

Markets are now turning their attention to upcoming data releases on U.S. GDP growth and inflation, which could further influence expectations around the Fed’s next move. A cooling labor market and softening housing prices may give policymakers additional reasons to consider easing monetary policy later this year.

In commodities, WTI crude oil fell 2.6% to $60.42 per barrel, and the euro slipped slightly to $1.1387 against the dollar.

While earnings season continues to deliver a mixed bag, the combination of cooling economic indicators and potential trade de-escalation is helping restore confidence that the current bull run may have further room to grow.

Daily Market Analysis – April 29, 2025 (After Market Close)

Short Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (no change)
• Support at $500
• Resistance at $550 (closed above!)
• Volume: Well below average (50)
• Pattern: Bullish Engulfing candlestick (bullish)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish (from Neutral)
• Support at $415
• Resistance at $466 (closed above!)
• Volume: Well below average (50)
• Pattern: Bullish Engulfing candlestick (bullish)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Short-Term Trend: Neutral (no change)
• Support at $170
• Resistance at $197
• Volume: Well below average (50)
• Pattern:

Long Term Trend

SPY (S&P 500 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Down (no change)

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Down (no change)

IWM (Russell 2000 ETF)

• Long-Term Trend: Down (no change)

Market Breadth Analysis for April 29, 2025 (After Market Close)

The market continued to show broad strength, with improving participation across various timeframes and key moving averages, signaling growing momentum behind the recent rally.

Short-Term Participation

• Advancing Day % (Apr 29): 66.5%, up from 62.9% the previous day — bullish.
• Declining Day %: Dropped to 31%, indicating more stocks are participating in the upside.
• 4% Advancers: A modest 3.1%, but steady — shows limited high-momentum breakouts.

Moving Average Participation

• SMA(20)+: 84.3% of stocks above their 20-day MA — a strong short-term signal.
• SMA(50)+: 38.9% — still low but rising (was 20.8% on Apr 22).
• SMA(100)+ / SMA(200)+: 28.5% / 27.6% — slow improvement, but still shows a longer-term recovery is underway.

This improvement in the shorter-term SMAs with lagging longer-term MA participation is typical in the early-to-middle phases of a market rebound.

New Highs vs. New Lows

• New Highs (NH): 1.6%
• New Lows (NL): 0.6%

• New Highs have shown a clear uptrend, rising from 1.2% to 1.6% over the week.
• New Lows remained low and relatively stable, ranging between 0.2% and 0.7%.

This increasing spread between new highs and lows indicates strengthening market breadth and bullish momentum, especially as more stocks are breaking out to new highs while few are making new lows.

Momentum Over Time

• 1-Month Advancers surged from 16.6% to 40.4%, reflecting a significant and accelerating shift in short-term momentum.

• 3-Month Advancers rose more gradually from 21.5% to 26.9%, suggesting longer-term strength is beginning to build, though at a slower pace.

The sharp rise in 1-month advancers signals strong short-term breadth recovery, while the steady rise in 3-month figures indicates improving market internals that could support a more sustained uptrend.

Despite April's rocky start (e.g., April 22 had only 35.2% of stocks above their 20-day MA), the past week reflects a solid shift in sentiment, with consistent gains across most breadth metrics.

Caution Flags

• Longer-term participation (SMA100 and SMA200) remains below 30%, indicating that long-term trends have yet to fully confirm the short-term strength.

• The number of stocks down 25% or more over 3 months is still elevated at 17.1%, though down from 22.8% a week ago.

Conclusion

Breadth indicators show the market is in recovery mode, with strong short-term and weekly momentum.

While it's encouraging to see participation widening, longer-term confirmation is still lacking. Investors should continue to watch the trend in moving average participation and new highs for confirmation of a sustained bull phase.