UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:UPS - US9113121068 - Common Stock
97.4 USD
+1.04 (+1.08%)
97.2005 USD
-0.2 (-0.2%)
UPS gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While UPS has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. UPS has a decent growth rate and is not valued too expensively. Finally UPS also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings could make UPS a good candidate for dividend investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
UPS had positive earnings in the past year.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
UPS had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
UPS has a better Return On Assets (8.08%) than 82.61% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 36.38%, UPS belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS's Return On Invested Capital of 11.69% is amongst the best of the industry. UPS outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for UPS is above the industry average of 11.80%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.08% | ||
| ROE | 36.38% | ||
| ROIC | 11.69% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of UPS (6.34%) is better than 91.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of UPS has remained more or less at the same level.
UPS has a better Operating Margin (9.41%) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
UPS's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
UPS has a better Gross Margin (81.60%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
UPS's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.34% | ||
| GM | 81.6% |
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
UPS has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for UPS remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
UPS has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
UPS has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.03 indicates that UPS is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
UPS's Altman-Z score of 3.03 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. UPS outperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
UPS has a debt to FCF ratio of 6.97. This is a slightly negative value and a sign of low solvency as UPS would need 6.97 years to pay back of all of its debts.
The Debt to FCF ratio of UPS (6.97) is better than 69.57% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51 is on the high side and indicates that UPS has dependencies on debt financing.
UPS's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.51 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. UPS is outperformed by 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.97 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.03 |
ROIC/WACC1.56
WACC7.47%
2.3 Liquidity
UPS has a Current Ratio of 1.32. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPS has a Current ratio of 1.32. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: UPS outperforms 43.48% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.32 indicates that UPS should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.32, UPS is in line with its industry, outperforming 47.83% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 1.07% over the past year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 0.53% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, UPS shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 0.12% in the last year.
Measured over the past years, UPS shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.21% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.12%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, UPS will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.41% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.25% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-15.44%
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.41%
Revenue Next Year-4.08%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.93%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.08%
Revenue Next 5Y2.25%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.93 indicates a correct valuation of UPS.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, UPS is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.76. UPS is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.53, UPS is valued correctly.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of UPS indicates a rather cheap valuation: UPS is cheaper than 86.96% of the companies listed in the same industry.
UPS's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 22.63.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.53 |
4.2 Price Multiples
UPS's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. UPS is cheaper than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. UPS is cheaper than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 23.26 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.22 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of UPS may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)24.61
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 7.35%, UPS is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.72, UPS pays a better dividend. On top of this UPS pays more dividend than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.31, UPS pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.35% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of UPS grows each year by 11.17%, which is quite nice.
UPS has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
UPS has not decreased their dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
5.3 Sustainability
94.15% of the earnings are spent on dividend by UPS. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
UPS's earnings are growing slower than its dividend. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP94.15%
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
97.4
+1.04 (+1.08%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.63%
Inst Owner Change-1.29%
Ins Owners0.01%
Ins Owner Change0.98%
Market Cap82.55B
Revenue(TTM)91.07B
Net Income(TTM)5.73B
Analysts72.22
Price Target100.64 (3.33%)
Short Float %2.72%
Short Ratio2.62
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.35% |
Yearly Dividend6.33
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
DP94.15%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)2.6%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)6.85%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)4.98%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(4)7.57%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)2.56%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)1.99%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)3.24%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.04%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.36%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.03%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.36%
Revenue beat(8)2
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.25%
Revenue beat(12)2
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.93%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)-1.4%
PT rev (3m)-9.69%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-2.09%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-16.35%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.63%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.27%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.27%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.15%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.33%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.93 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.53 | ||
| P/S | 0.91 | ||
| P/FCF | 23.26 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.02 | ||
| P/B | 5.24 | ||
| P/tB | 10.88 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.22 |
EPS(TTM)7.53
EY7.73%
EPS(NY)7.2
Fwd EY7.39%
FCF(TTM)4.19
FCFY4.3%
OCF(TTM)8.84
OCFY9.07%
SpS106.56
BVpS18.58
TBVpS8.95
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)24.61
Graham Number56.11
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.08% | ||
| ROE | 36.38% | ||
| ROCE | 14.99% | ||
| ROIC | 11.69% | ||
| ROICexc | 13.15% | ||
| ROICexgc | 15.69% | ||
| OM | 9.41% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.34% | ||
| GM | 81.6% | ||
| FCFM | 3.93% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
ROICexc(3y)17.25%
ROICexc(5y)18.55%
ROICexgc(3y)20.55%
ROICexgc(5y)21.95%
ROCE(3y)19.3%
ROCE(5y)20.23%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-16.14%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.33%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.47%
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 6.97 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.96 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 107.3% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.36% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 61.54% | ||
| Profit Quality | 61.94% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.32 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.03 |
F-Score7
WACC7.47%
ROIC/WACC1.56
Cap/Depr(3y)137.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)150.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.08%
Profit Quality(3y)88.01%
Profit Quality(5y)144.74%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
EPS Next Y-15.44%
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)0.12%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
Revenue Next Year-4.08%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.93%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.08%
Revenue Next 5Y2.25%
EBIT growth 1Y14.45%
EBIT growth 3Y-12.41%
EBIT growth 5Y1.92%
EBIT Next Year31.84%
EBIT Next 3Y15.35%
EBIT Next 5Y11.14%
FCF growth 1Y-42.79%
FCF growth 3Y-16.86%
FCF growth 5Y22.43%
OCF growth 1Y-34.34%
OCF growth 3Y-12.3%
OCF growth 5Y3.22%
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B / UPS FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for UPS stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to UPS.
What is the valuation status of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is 12.93 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 5.24.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for UPS stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is expected to decline by -15.44% in the next year.