UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:UPS - US9113121068 - Common Stock
93.06 USD
-2.89 (-3.01%)
93.1 USD
+0.04 (+0.04%)
Overall UPS gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated UPS against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. UPS scores excellent on profitability, but there are some minor concerns on its financial health. UPS is cheap, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth. Finally UPS also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings could make UPS a good candidate for value and dividend investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
UPS had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year UPS had a positive cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years UPS has been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years UPS had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of UPS (7.71%) is better than 82.61% of its industry peers.
UPS has a Return On Equity of 34.77%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 95.65% of its industry peers.
UPS has a better Return On Invested Capital (11.41%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
UPS had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 15.05%. This is above the industry average of 11.62%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROIC | 11.41% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of UPS (6.15%) is better than 91.30% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of UPS has remained more or less at the same level.
UPS's Operating Margin of 9.29% is amongst the best of the industry. UPS outperforms 91.30% of its industry peers.
UPS's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
UPS has a better Gross Margin (82.44%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of UPS has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% |
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so UPS is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, UPS has about the same amount of shares outstanding.
UPS has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
UPS has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.98 indicates that UPS is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
UPS has a Altman-Z score of 2.98. This is in the better half of the industry: UPS outperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
UPS has a debt to FCF ratio of 5.64. This is a neutral value as UPS would need 5.64 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 5.64, UPS is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.51, UPS is not doing good in the industry: 73.91% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.98 |
ROIC/WACC1.52
WACC7.52%
2.3 Liquidity
UPS has a Current Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of UPS (1.30) is worse than 65.22% of its industry peers.
UPS has a Quick Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
UPS's Quick ratio of 1.30 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. UPS is outperformed by 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
UPS shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 1.07%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 0.53% on average over the past years.
UPS shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -1.33%.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 4.21% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, UPS will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 4.95% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 2.05% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-10.07%
EPS Next 2Y-3.48%
EPS Next 3Y1.34%
EPS Next 5Y4.95%
Revenue Next Year-3.49%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.72%
Revenue Next 3Y0.09%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.36, the valuation of UPS can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, UPS is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
UPS is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.28, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 12.92, which indicates a correct valuation of UPS.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, UPS is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.96% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio is at 33.61. UPS is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.92 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, UPS is valued a bit cheaper than 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. UPS is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.27 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
UPS has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)23.51
EPS Next 2Y-3.48%
EPS Next 3Y1.34%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 7.01%, UPS is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.59, UPS pays a better dividend. On top of this UPS pays more dividend than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
UPS's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.01% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of UPS grows each year by 11.17%, which is quite nice.
UPS has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
UPS has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
5.3 Sustainability
98.06% of the earnings are spent on dividend by UPS. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of UPS is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP98.06%
EPS Next 2Y-3.48%
EPS Next 3Y1.34%
93.06
-2.89 (-3.01%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.63%
Inst Owner Change-3.22%
Ins Owners0.01%
Ins Owner Change0.98%
Market Cap78.87B
Revenue(TTM)89.48B
Net Income(TTM)5.50B
Analysts72.57
Price Target100.64 (8.15%)
Short Float %2.72%
Short Ratio2.62
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 7.01% |
Yearly Dividend6.33
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
DP98.06%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)15.5%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)32.65%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)11.35%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(4)32.65%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)6.38%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.37%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.78%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.6%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.78%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.68%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.65%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)-4.11%
PT rev (3m)-6.99%
EPS NQ rev (1m)4.16%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.95%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.68%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.29%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.26%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.48%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.01%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.36 | ||
| Fwd PE | 12.92 | ||
| P/S | 0.88 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.94 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.32 | ||
| P/B | 4.98 | ||
| P/tB | 10.44 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.27 |
EPS(TTM)7.53
EY8.09%
EPS(NY)7.2
Fwd EY7.74%
FCF(TTM)5.19
FCFY5.57%
OCF(TTM)9.99
OCFY10.73%
SpS105.58
BVpS18.67
TBVpS8.92
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)23.51
Graham Number56.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROCE | 14.63% | ||
| ROIC | 11.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 15.51% | ||
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% | ||
| FCFM | 4.91% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
ROICexc(3y)17.25%
ROICexc(5y)18.55%
ROICexgc(3y)20.55%
ROICexgc(5y)21.95%
ROCE(3y)19.3%
ROCE(5y)20.23%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-16.14%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.33%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.47%
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.99 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.13% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.55% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.47% | ||
| Profit Quality | 79.9% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.98 |
F-Score6
WACC7.52%
ROIC/WACC1.52
Cap/Depr(3y)137.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)150.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.08%
Profit Quality(3y)88.01%
Profit Quality(5y)144.74%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
EPS Next Y-10.07%
EPS Next 2Y-3.48%
EPS Next 3Y1.34%
EPS Next 5Y4.95%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
Revenue Next Year-3.49%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.72%
Revenue Next 3Y0.09%
Revenue Next 5Y2.05%
EBIT growth 1Y3.1%
EBIT growth 3Y-12.41%
EBIT growth 5Y1.92%
EBIT Next Year31.84%
EBIT Next 3Y15.35%
EBIT Next 5Y10.54%
FCF growth 1Y-20.92%
FCF growth 3Y-16.86%
FCF growth 5Y22.43%
OCF growth 1Y-24.16%
OCF growth 3Y-12.3%
OCF growth 5Y3.22%
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B / UPS FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for UPS stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to UPS.
What is the valuation status of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS). This can be considered as Undervalued.
How profitable is UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is 12.36 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 4.98.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for UPS stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is expected to decline by -10.07% in the next year.