UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:UPS - US9113121068 - Common Stock
96.42 USD
+1.36 (+1.43%)
96.5 USD
+0.08 (+0.08%)
Overall UPS gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. We evaluated UPS against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. While UPS has a great profitability rating, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. UPS has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing. Finally UPS also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings could make UPS a good candidate for dividend investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year UPS was profitable.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Each year in the past 5 years UPS has been profitable.
UPS had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 7.71%, UPS belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS has a Return On Equity of 34.77%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 95.65% of its industry peers.
UPS's Return On Invested Capital of 11.41% is amongst the best of the industry. UPS outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for UPS is above the industry average of 11.57%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROIC | 11.41% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 6.15%, UPS belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of UPS has remained more or less at the same level.
UPS has a Operating Margin of 9.29%. This is amongst the best in the industry. UPS outperforms 91.30% of its industry peers.
UPS's Operating Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of UPS (82.44%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of UPS has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% |
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so UPS is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for UPS remains at a similar level compared to 1 year ago.
UPS has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for UPS has been reduced compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.98 indicates that UPS is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of UPS (2.98) is better than 65.22% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of UPS is 5.64, which is a neutral value as it means it would take UPS, 5.64 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 5.64, UPS is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.51. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
UPS has a worse Debt to Equity ratio (1.51) than 73.91% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.98 |
ROIC/WACC1.51
WACC7.55%
2.3 Liquidity
UPS has a Current Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.30, UPS is not doing good in the industry: 65.22% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
UPS has a Quick Ratio of 1.30. This is a normal value and indicates that UPS is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Quick ratio value of 1.30, UPS is not doing good in the industry: 60.87% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 1.07% over the past year.
UPS shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 0.53% yearly.
UPS shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -1.33%.
Measured over the past years, UPS shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 4.21% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.41% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, UPS will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 2.25% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-15.44%
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.41%
Revenue Next Year-4.08%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.93%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.08%
Revenue Next 5Y2.25%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.80, UPS is valued correctly.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, UPS is valued cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.11. UPS is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
UPS is valuated correctly with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 13.40.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of UPS indicates a rather cheap valuation: UPS is cheaper than 86.96% of the companies listed in the same industry.
UPS is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.55, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.4 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of UPS indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: UPS is cheaper than 73.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
UPS's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. UPS is cheaper than 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 18.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of UPS may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)24.36
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
UPS has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 6.90%, which is a nice return.
UPS's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.62. UPS pays more dividend than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
UPS's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.37.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.9% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of UPS grows each year by 11.17%, which is quite nice.
UPS has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
UPS has not decreased its dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record of non decreasing dividend.
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
5.3 Sustainability
UPS pays out 98.06% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of UPS is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP98.06%
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
96.42
+1.36 (+1.43%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.63%
Inst Owner Change-2.22%
Ins Owners0.01%
Ins Owner Change0.98%
Market Cap81.72B
Revenue(TTM)89.48B
Net Income(TTM)5.50B
Analysts72.22
Price Target100.64 (4.38%)
Short Float %2.72%
Short Ratio2.62
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 6.9% |
Yearly Dividend6.33
Dividend Growth(5Y)11.17%
DP98.06%
Div Incr Years15
Div Non Decr Years25
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)15.5%
Min EPS beat(2)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(2)32.65%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)11.35%
Min EPS beat(4)-1.66%
Max EPS beat(4)32.65%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)6.38%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)4.37%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)4.94%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.25%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.72%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.78%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.6%
Min Revenue beat(4)-1.45%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.78%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-0.68%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.65%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.17%
PT rev (1m)-5.46%
PT rev (3m)-13.4%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-1.61%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-5.05%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.63%
EPS NY rev (3m)-7.26%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.53%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-0.35%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.13%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.39%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.8 | ||
| Fwd PE | 13.4 | ||
| P/S | 0.91 | ||
| P/FCF | 18.59 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.66 | ||
| P/B | 5.16 | ||
| P/tB | 10.81 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3 |
EPS(TTM)7.53
EY7.81%
EPS(NY)7.2
Fwd EY7.46%
FCF(TTM)5.19
FCFY5.38%
OCF(TTM)9.99
OCFY10.36%
SpS105.58
BVpS18.67
TBVpS8.92
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)24.36
Graham Number56.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 7.71% | ||
| ROE | 34.77% | ||
| ROCE | 14.63% | ||
| ROIC | 11.41% | ||
| ROICexc | 12.95% | ||
| ROICexgc | 15.51% | ||
| OM | 9.29% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 6.15% | ||
| GM | 82.44% | ||
| FCFM | 4.91% |
ROA(3y)11.32%
ROA(5y)10.94%
ROE(3y)43.9%
ROE(5y)85.31%
ROIC(3y)15.05%
ROIC(5y)15.77%
ROICexc(3y)17.25%
ROICexc(5y)18.55%
ROICexgc(3y)20.55%
ROICexgc(5y)21.95%
ROCE(3y)19.3%
ROCE(5y)20.23%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-16.14%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.33%
ROICexc growth 3Y-16.33%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1.47%
OM growth 3Y-10.47%
OM growth 5Y-2.2%
PM growth 3Y-21.75%
PM growth 5Y1.16%
GM growth 3Y1.64%
GM growth 5Y0.43%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover1.25
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.51 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 5.64 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.99 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 110.13% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 4.55% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 70.47% | ||
| Profit Quality | 79.9% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.3 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.98 |
F-Score6
WACC7.55%
ROIC/WACC1.51
Cap/Depr(3y)137.05%
Cap/Depr(5y)150.75%
Cap/Sales(3y)4.91%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.08%
Profit Quality(3y)88.01%
Profit Quality(5y)144.74%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)1.07%
EPS 3Y-13.95%
EPS 5Y0.53%
EPS Q2Q%-1.14%
EPS Next Y-15.44%
EPS Next 2Y-3.51%
EPS Next 3Y0.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-1.33%
Revenue growth 3Y-2.18%
Revenue growth 5Y4.21%
Sales Q2Q%-3.73%
Revenue Next Year-4.08%
Revenue Next 2Y-1.93%
Revenue Next 3Y-0.08%
Revenue Next 5Y2.25%
EBIT growth 1Y3.1%
EBIT growth 3Y-12.41%
EBIT growth 5Y1.92%
EBIT Next Year31.84%
EBIT Next 3Y15.35%
EBIT Next 5Y11.14%
FCF growth 1Y-20.92%
FCF growth 3Y-16.86%
FCF growth 5Y22.43%
OCF growth 1Y-24.16%
OCF growth 3Y-12.3%
OCF growth 5Y3.22%
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B / UPS FAQ
What is the fundamental rating for UPS stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to UPS.
What is the valuation status of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is 12.8 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 5.16.
Can you provide the expected EPS growth for UPS stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B (UPS) is expected to decline by -15.44% in the next year.