ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ZTO • US98980A1051

24.04 USD
+0.55 (+2.34%)
At close: Mar 13, 2026
24.01 USD
-0.03 (-0.12%)
After Hours: 3/13/2026, 8:04:34 PM
Overview Stock Chart Technical Analysis Fundamental Analysis Forecast Earnings Financials Ownership News

This ZTO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

Fundamental Rating

7

ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making ZTO a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. ZTO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! These ratings could make ZTO a good candidate for value and quality investing.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

8

1. ZTO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ZTO was profitable.
  • ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ZTO has been profitable.
  • In the past 5 years ZTO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
ZTO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFZTO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B

1.2 Ratios

  • Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 9.76%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 13.66%, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ZTO has a Return On Invested Capital of 10.83%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.66%. This is in line with the industry average of 11.97%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(10.83%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.76%
ROE 13.66%
ROIC 10.83%
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ZTO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICZTO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10

1.3 Margins

  • ZTO has a better Profit Margin (18.60%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • ZTO has a Operating Margin of 22.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
  • With a decent Gross Margin value of 25.99%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 69.57% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 22.6%
PM (TTM) 18.6%
GM 25.99%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
ZTO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsZTO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

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7

2. ZTO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • Compared to 5 years ago, ZTO has more shares outstanding
  • ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
ZTO Yearly Shares OutstandingZTO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M
ZTO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsZTO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 4.55 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • ZTO has a Altman-Z score of 4.55. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO is 1.13, which is an excellent value as it means it would take ZTO, only 1.13 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
  • The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO (1.13) is better than 95.65% of its industry peers.
  • A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
  • Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.18, ZTO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.18
Debt/FCF 1.13
Altman-Z 4.55
ROIC/WACC2.28
WACC4.74%
ZTO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFZTO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20B 40B 60B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.38 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.38, ZTO is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.48% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.38. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • ZTO has a Quick ratio of 1.38. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: ZTO outperforms 43.48% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.38
Quick Ratio 1.38
ZTO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesZTO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. ZTO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • The earnings per share for ZTO have decreased by -6.97% in the last year.
  • ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.77% yearly.
  • ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 13.17%.
  • Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.24% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.38% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-1.4%
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.24%
Revenue Next Year12.84%
Revenue Next 2Y11.88%
Revenue Next 3Y11.12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.38%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
ZTO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesZTO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 20B 40B 60B
ZTO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesZTO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 5 10 15 20

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7

4. ZTO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • With a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.22, ZTO is valued correctly.
  • ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.70), we can say ZTO is valued slightly cheaper.
  • ZTO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.95.
  • 95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.84), we can say ZTO is valued slightly cheaper.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.22
Fwd PE 11.95
ZTO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsZTO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
  • 100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 12.02
EV/EBITDA 6.03
ZTO Per share dataZTO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.83
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

5

5. ZTO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.84%, ZTO has a reasonable but not impressive dividend return.
  • ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.10. ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.82, ZTO pays a better dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.84%

5.2 History

  • ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
ZTO Yearly Dividends per shareZTO Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%
ZTO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendZTO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 2B -2B 4B -4B 6B 8B

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ZTO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR

NYSE:ZTO (3/13/2026, 8:04:34 PM)

After market: 24.01 -0.03 (-0.12%)

24.04

+0.55 (+2.34%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)11-20
Earnings (Next)03-17
Inst Owners18.3%
Inst Owner Change-9.62%
Ins Owners0.24%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap18.46B
Revenue(TTM)47.51B
Net Income(TTM)8.84B
Analysts86.32
Price Target25.25 (5.03%)
Short Float %4.17%
Short Ratio7.73
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.84%
Yearly Dividend1.09
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.73%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)28.78%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.07%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)28.78%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.21%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.06%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)5%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.13%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.69%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.19%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-1.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)2.5%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.04%
EPS NY rev (1m)5.67%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.21%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.22
Fwd PE 11.95
P/S 2.67
P/FCF 12.02
P/OCF 12.02
P/B 1.96
P/tB 2.34
EV/EBITDA 6.03
EPS(TTM)1.69
EY7.03%
EPS(NY)2.01
Fwd EY8.37%
FCF(TTM)2
FCFY8.32%
OCF(TTM)2
OCFY8.32%
SpS9.01
BVpS12.27
TBVpS10.29
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.83
Graham Number21.6
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.76%
ROE 13.66%
ROCE 16.16%
ROIC 10.83%
ROICexc 16.01%
ROICexgc 19.96%
OM 22.6%
PM (TTM) 18.6%
GM 25.99%
FCFM 22.2%
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.52
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.18
Debt/FCF 1.13
Debt/EBITDA 0.87
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 76.65%
Profit Quality 119.35%
Current Ratio 1.38
Quick Ratio 1.38
Altman-Z 4.55
F-Score6
WACC4.74%
ROIC/WACC2.28
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
EPS Next Y-1.4%
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
Revenue Next Year12.84%
Revenue Next 2Y11.88%
Revenue Next 3Y11.12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.38%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year26.61%
EBIT Next 3Y15.47%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y-20.13%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.13%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO.


What is the valuation status for ZTO stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Undervalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR?

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ZTO stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 14.22 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.96.