ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
18.98 USD
-0.03 (-0.16%)
18.93 USD
-0.05 (-0.26%)
ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings would make ZTO suitable for value investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years ZTO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of ZTO (9.21%) is better than 86.96% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a better Return On Equity (13.57%) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Invested Capital of 11.40% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 82.61% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 11.80%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(11.40%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of ZTO (18.81%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
ZTO's Operating Margin of 24.13% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
ZTO's Gross Margin of 27.48% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.68 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO's Altman-Z score of 3.68 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.76. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.76 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 1.76, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
ZTO's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.17 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.68 |
ROIC/WACC2.57
WACC4.44%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO's Current ratio of 1.21 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO is outperformed by 73.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ZTO's Quick ratio of 1.21 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO is outperformed by 65.22% of its industry peers.
ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ZTO have decreased by -8.22% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.77% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has grown by 14.70% in the past year. This is quite good.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.14% on average over the next years.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 8.27% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y-9%
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
EPS Next 5Y6.14%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.27%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 12.17 indicates a correct valuation of ZTO.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 82.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.57.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.35, which indicates a very decent valuation of ZTO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.09, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.35 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.31 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.31 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.57
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.44%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.76. ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.32, ZTO pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.44% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
18.98
-0.03 (-0.16%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners14.67%
Inst Owner Change0.21%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.13B
Revenue(TTM)46.32B
Net Income(TTM)8.71B
Analysts86.67
Price Target25.55 (34.62%)
Short Float %3.59%
Short Ratio7.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.44% |
Yearly Dividend1.03
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-17.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)0.11%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.08%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)0.01%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)3.17%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)0.32%
PT rev (3m)4.27%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.33%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0.8%
EPS NY rev (1m)-4.81%
EPS NY rev (3m)-17.24%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.66%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.35 | ||
| P/S | 2.33 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.31 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.31 | ||
| P/B | 1.68 | ||
| P/tB | 2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.31 |
EPS(TTM)1.56
EY8.22%
EPS(NY)1.83
Fwd EY9.66%
FCF(TTM)1.84
FCFY9.7%
OCF(TTM)1.84
OCFY9.7%
SpS8.16
BVpS11.31
TBVpS9.47
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.57
Graham Number19.93
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROCE | 16.89% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 21.86% | ||
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% | ||
| FCFM | 22.56% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.68 |
F-Score5
WACC4.44%
ROIC/WACC2.57
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
EPS Next Y-9%
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
EPS Next 5Y6.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.27%
EBIT growth 1Y4.83%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year24.25%
EBIT Next 3Y16.41%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y21.64%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.19%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%