ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
19.2 USD
-0.37 (-1.89%)
19.2 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10 to ZTO. ZTO was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth With these ratings, ZTO could be worth investigating further for value investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO has a Return On Assets of 9.21%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Equity of 13.57% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 11.40%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 12.50%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(11.40%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
ZTO's Profit Margin of 18.81% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
ZTO's Operating Margin of 24.13% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 27.48%, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 73.91% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.75. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO has a better Altman-Z score (3.75) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO is 1.76, which is an excellent value as it means it would take ZTO, only 1.76 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ZTO has a better Debt to FCF ratio (1.76) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.17, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.87% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.75 |
ROIC/WACC2.56
WACC4.46%
2.3 Liquidity
ZTO has a Current Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ZTO has a worse Current ratio (1.21) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.21. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ZTO has a Quick ratio of 1.21. This is in the lower half of the industry: ZTO underperforms 60.87% of its industry peers.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ZTO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -8.22%.
ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.77% yearly.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 14.70% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
3.2 Future
ZTO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.05% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.18% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-9%
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
EPS Next 5Y6.05%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.18%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 12.39, ZTO is valued correctly.
82.61% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.76.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 10.51, the valuation of ZTO can be described as very reasonable.
ZTO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (23.18), we can say ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.39 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.51 |
4.2 Price Multiples
95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
ZTO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.57 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.59
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.48%.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.79. ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.41, ZTO pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.48% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
19.2
-0.37 (-1.89%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners14.67%
Inst Owner Change-33.91%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.36B
Analysts86.67
Price Target25.47 (32.66%)
Short Float %3.59%
Short Ratio7.87
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.48% |
Yearly Dividend1.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-17.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)0.11%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.08%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)0.01%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)3.17%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)2.7%
PT rev (3m)4.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)-5.12%
EPS NY rev (3m)-17.51%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.54%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.36%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.39 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.51 | ||
| P/S | 2.36 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.46 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.46 | ||
| P/B | 1.7 | ||
| P/tB | 2.03 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.57 |
EPS(TTM)1.55
EY8.07%
EPS(NY)1.83
Fwd EY9.52%
FCF(TTM)1.83
FCFY9.56%
OCF(TTM)1.83
OCFY9.56%
SpS8.13
BVpS11.27
TBVpS9.44
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.59
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROCE | 16.89% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 21.86% | ||
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% | ||
| FCFM | 22.56% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.75 |
F-Score5
WACC4.46%
ROIC/WACC2.56
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-8.22%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-45.01%
EPS Next Y-9%
EPS Next 2Y2.57%
EPS Next 3Y5.96%
EPS Next 5Y6.05%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.7%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.31%
Revenue Next Year12.4%
Revenue Next 2Y12.41%
Revenue Next 3Y12.08%
Revenue Next 5Y8.18%
EBIT growth 1Y4.83%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year24.25%
EBIT Next 3Y16.41%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y21.64%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.19%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%