ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ZTO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US98980A1051 - ADR - Currency: USD
Overall ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. We evaluated ZTO against 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth With these ratings, ZTO could be worth investigating further for value and quality investing!.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ZTO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 10.07%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 15.08%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO has a better Return On Invested Capital (12.79%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.66%. This is in line with the industry average of 12.51%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(12.79%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 20.76%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
The Operating Margin of ZTO (26.35%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
ZTO has a Gross Margin of 29.65%. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, ZTO has more shares outstanding
The debt/assets ratio for ZTO is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.72 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of ZTO (3.72) is better than 63.64% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.41. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.41 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ZTO has a better Debt to FCF ratio (1.41) than 90.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.15. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
ZTO has a better Debt to Equity ratio (0.15) than 63.64% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.72 |
ROIC/WACC2.84
WACC4.5%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.05 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.05, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 77.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 1.05 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO has a worse Quick ratio (1.05) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 21.61% over the past year.
Measured over the past 5 years, ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.77% on average per year.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 14.76% in the last year.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.84% on average per year.
ZTO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 9.68% yearly.
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.84%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.68%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.82, which indicates a very decent valuation of ZTO.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.93.
ZTO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.18.
ZTO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 37.78, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.82 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.18 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.59 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.87 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.04
PEG (5Y)1.39
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.47%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.71, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 90.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.47% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
19.7
-0.23 (-1.15%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners12.7%
Inst Owner Change-5.74%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.73B
Analysts85.56
Price Target24.5 (24.37%)
Short Float %3.01%
Short Ratio5.33
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.47% |
Yearly Dividend1.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-14.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.6%
Min EPS beat(4)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.86%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.52%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)4.58%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.66%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.08%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.14%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.4%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.62%
PT rev (1m)0.97%
PT rev (3m)-9.76%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-18.41%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.89%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.58%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-6.03%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.03%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.41%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.82 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.18 | ||
| P/S | 2.5 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.59 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.59 | ||
| P/B | 1.81 | ||
| P/tB | 2.18 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.87 |
EPS(TTM)1.82
EY9.24%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY10.9%
FCF(TTM)2.05
FCFY10.43%
OCF(TTM)2.05
OCFY10.43%
SpS7.89
BVpS10.86
TBVpS9.02
PEG (NY)1.04
PEG (5Y)1.39
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROCE | 18.59% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 18.63% | ||
| ROICexgc | 23.57% | ||
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% | ||
| FCFM | 26.01% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.62 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 125.33% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.72 |
F-Score6
WACC4.5%
ROIC/WACC2.84
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.68%
EBIT growth 1Y15.41%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year37.59%
EBIT Next 3Y18.86%
EBIT Next 5Y13.36%
FCF growth 1Y-10.3%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-10.3%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%