ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ZTO • US98980A1051

Current stock price

23.79 USD
-0.25 (-1.04%)
At close:
23.79 USD
0 (0%)
After Hours:

This ZTO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

8

1. ZTO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • In the past year ZTO was profitable.
  • In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
  • ZTO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • Each year in the past 5 years ZTO had a positive operating cash flow.
ZTO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFZTO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 5B 10B

1.2 Ratios

  • ZTO has a better Return On Assets (9.76%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO has a better Return On Equity (13.66%) than 78.26% of its industry peers.
  • With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 10.83%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
  • Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 11.97%.
  • The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(10.83%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.76%
ROE 13.66%
ROIC 10.83%
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ZTO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICZTO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 5 10

1.3 Margins

  • Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 18.60%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
  • The Operating Margin of ZTO (22.60%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • ZTO has a Gross Margin of 25.99%. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
  • In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 22.6%
PM (TTM) 18.6%
GM 25.99%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
ZTO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsZTO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

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7

2. ZTO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
  • The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
  • ZTO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has a worse debt to assets ratio.
ZTO Yearly Shares OutstandingZTO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 200M 400M 600M
ZTO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsZTO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 4.63 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • The Altman-Z score of ZTO (4.63) is better than 78.26% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.13. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.13 years to pay back of all of its debts.
  • ZTO has a Debt to FCF ratio of 1.13. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 95.65% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • ZTO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.18) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.18
Debt/FCF 1.13
Altman-Z 4.63
ROIC/WACC2.29
WACC4.73%
ZTO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFZTO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 20B 40B 60B

2.3 Liquidity

  • ZTO has a Current Ratio of 1.38. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • Looking at the Current ratio, with a value of 1.38, ZTO is in line with its industry, outperforming 43.48% of the companies in the same industry.
  • A Quick Ratio of 1.38 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ZTO has a Quick ratio (1.38) which is in line with its industry peers.
  • The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.38
Quick Ratio 1.38
ZTO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesZTO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. ZTO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ZTO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.97%.
  • Measured over the past 5 years, ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.77% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has grown by 13.17% in the past year. This is quite good.
  • Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%

3.2 Future

  • ZTO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.24% yearly.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 8.38% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-1.4%
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.24%
Revenue Next Year12.84%
Revenue Next 2Y11.88%
Revenue Next 3Y11.12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.38%

3.3 Evolution

  • When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
  • The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
ZTO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesZTO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 20B 40B 60B
ZTO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesZTO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 5 10 15 20

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7

4. ZTO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 14.16, the valuation of ZTO can be described as correct.
  • ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
  • When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (25.71), we can say ZTO is valued slightly cheaper.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 11.88 indicates a reasonable valuation of ZTO.
  • 95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • ZTO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.83.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.16
Fwd PE 11.88
ZTO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsZTO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

  • ZTO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
  • 100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 11.94
EV/EBITDA 6.28
ZTO Per share dataZTO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • The excellent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.82
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. ZTO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.76%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.16, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.91, ZTO pays a bit more dividend than the S&P500 average.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.76%

5.2 History

  • ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
  • ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
ZTO Yearly Dividends per shareZTO Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%
ZTO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendZTO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0 2B -2B 4B -4B 6B 8B

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ZTO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR

NYSE:ZTO (3/16/2026, 6:04:58 PM)

After market: 23.79 0 (0%)

23.79

-0.25 (-1.04%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)11-20
Earnings (Next)03-17
Inst Owners18.3%
Inst Owner Change-9.62%
Ins Owners0.24%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap18.26B
Revenue(TTM)47.51B
Net Income(TTM)8.84B
Analysts86.32
Price Target25.25 (6.14%)
Short Float %4.98%
Short Ratio9.61
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.76%
Yearly Dividend1.09
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.73%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)28.78%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.07%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)28.78%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.21%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.06%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)5%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.13%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.69%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.19%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-1.1%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)3.04%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.1%
EPS NY rev (3m)6.23%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-0.21%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.16
Fwd PE 11.88
P/S 2.65
P/FCF 11.94
P/OCF 11.94
P/B 1.95
P/tB 2.32
EV/EBITDA 6.28
EPS(TTM)1.68
EY7.06%
EPS(NY)2
Fwd EY8.42%
FCF(TTM)1.99
FCFY8.37%
OCF(TTM)1.99
OCFY8.37%
SpS8.97
BVpS12.22
TBVpS10.25
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.82
Graham Number21.49
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.76%
ROE 13.66%
ROCE 16.16%
ROIC 10.83%
ROICexc 16.01%
ROICexgc 19.96%
OM 22.6%
PM (TTM) 18.6%
GM 25.99%
FCFM 22.2%
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.52
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.18
Debt/FCF 1.13
Debt/EBITDA 0.87
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 76.65%
Profit Quality 119.35%
Current Ratio 1.38
Quick Ratio 1.38
Altman-Z 4.63
F-Score6
WACC4.73%
ROIC/WACC2.29
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
EPS Next Y-1.4%
EPS Next 2Y4.26%
EPS Next 3Y6.87%
EPS Next 5Y6.24%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
Revenue Next Year12.84%
Revenue Next 2Y11.88%
Revenue Next 3Y11.12%
Revenue Next 5Y8.38%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year26.61%
EBIT Next 3Y15.47%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y-20.13%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.13%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO.


What is the valuation status for ZTO stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Undervalued.


Can you provide the profitability details for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR?

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.


Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ZTO stock?

The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 14.16 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.95.