ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ZTO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US98980A1051 - ADR - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, ZTO scores 7 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. ZTO was compared to 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth This makes ZTO very considerable for value and quality investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year ZTO had a positive cash flow from operations.
In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With an excellent Return On Assets value of 10.07%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 15.08%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 81.82% of the companies in the same industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 12.79%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ZTO is below the industry average of 12.73%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(12.79%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of ZTO (20.76%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ZTO has a better Operating Margin (26.35%) than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
ZTO's Gross Margin of 29.65% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ZTO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has less shares outstanding
Compared to 5 years ago, ZTO has more shares outstanding
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 3.46 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO has a Altman-Z score of 3.46. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO is 1.41, which is an excellent value as it means it would take ZTO, only 1.41 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 1.41, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.15 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.15, ZTO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.09% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.46 |
ROIC/WACC1.9
WACC6.72%
2.3 Liquidity
ZTO has a Current Ratio of 1.05. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.05, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 72.73% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
A Quick Ratio of 1.05 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (1.05) is worse than 72.73% of its industry peers.
ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ZTO shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 21.61%, which is quite impressive.
ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.77% yearly.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 14.76% in the last year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.90% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.74% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.9%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.74%
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 9.65, the valuation of ZTO can be described as very reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 90.91% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.55, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.20 indicates a reasonable valuation of ZTO.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (22.40), we can say ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.2 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaper than 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.98 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.93
PEG (5Y)1.24
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.12%, ZTO is a good candidate for dividend investing.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 4.02. ZTO pays more dividend than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.39.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.12% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
17.56
-0.06 (-0.34%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners9.37%
Inst Owner Change-10.41%
Ins Owners0.2%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap14.02B
Analysts85
Price Target24.83 (41.4%)
Short Float %3.07%
Short Ratio4.51
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.12% |
Yearly Dividend1.01
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-14.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.6%
Min EPS beat(4)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.86%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.52%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)4.58%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.66%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.08%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.14%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.4%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.62%
PT rev (1m)-8.55%
PT rev (3m)-7.56%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.58%
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.58%
EPS NY rev (3m)-2.51%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)6.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.2 | ||
| P/S | 2.23 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.57 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.57 | ||
| P/B | 1.62 | ||
| P/tB | 1.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.98 |
EPS(TTM)1.82
EY10.36%
EPS(NY)2.14
Fwd EY12.2%
FCF(TTM)2.05
FCFY11.67%
OCF(TTM)2.05
OCFY11.67%
SpS7.88
BVpS10.84
TBVpS9
PEG (NY)0.93
PEG (5Y)1.24
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROCE | 18.59% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 18.63% | ||
| ROICexgc | 23.57% | ||
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% | ||
| FCFM | 26.01% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.62 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 125.33% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.46 |
F-Score6
WACC6.72%
ROIC/WACC1.9
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.74%
EBIT growth 1Y15.41%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year37.59%
EBIT Next 3Y18.86%
EBIT Next 5Y13.43%
FCF growth 1Y-10.3%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-10.3%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%