ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Fundamental Analysis & Valuation

NYSE:ZTO • US98980A1051

Current stock price

25.14 USD
-0.45 (-1.76%)
At close:
25.14 USD
0 (0%)
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This ZTO fundamental analysis includes valuation metrics, fair value assessment, financial health analysis, profitability trends, growth metrics and dividend sustainability analysis.

8

1. ZTO Profitability Analysis

1.1 Basic Checks

  • ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
  • ZTO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
  • ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in 4 of the past 5 years.
ZTO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFZTO Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5B 10B

1.2 Ratios

  • ZTO's Return On Assets of 9.98% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
  • Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 13.68%, ZTO belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ZTO has a better Return On Invested Capital (10.49%) than 86.96% of its industry peers.
  • The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 9.38%.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.98%
ROE 13.68%
ROIC 10.49%
ROA(3y)9.8%
ROA(5y)9.13%
ROE(3y)14.17%
ROE(5y)12.98%
ROIC(3y)11.2%
ROIC(5y)10.16%
ZTO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICZTO Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5 10

1.3 Margins

  • ZTO has a Profit Margin of 18.49%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • With an excellent Operating Margin value of 21.33%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 100.00% of the companies in the same industry.
  • ZTO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
  • ZTO has a better Gross Margin (24.99%) than 69.57% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 21.33%
PM (TTM) 18.49%
GM 24.99%
OM growth 3Y-0.82%
OM growth 5Y2.5%
PM growth 3Y-1.32%
PM growth 5Y1.58%
GM growth 3Y-0.73%
GM growth 5Y1.54%
ZTO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsZTO Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 20 30

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5

2. ZTO Health Analysis

2.1 Basic Checks

  • ZTO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
  • Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has less shares outstanding
  • ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
  • ZTO has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
ZTO Yearly Shares OutstandingZTO Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200M 400M 600M
ZTO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsZTO Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20B 40B 60B 80B

2.2 Solvency

  • An Altman-Z score of 4.96 indicates that ZTO is not in any danger for bankruptcy at the moment.
  • ZTO's Altman-Z score of 4.96 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 78.26% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
  • ZTO has a Debt to Equity ratio (0.17) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.17
Debt/FCF N/A
Altman-Z 4.96
ROIC/WACC2.19
WACC4.8%
ZTO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFZTO Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 20B 40B 60B

2.3 Liquidity

  • A Current Ratio of 1.49 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
  • ZTO's Current ratio of 1.49 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 52.17% of its industry peers.
  • ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.48. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
  • With a Quick ratio value of 1.48, ZTO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 52.17% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.49
Quick Ratio 1.48
ZTO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesZTO Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10B 20B 30B

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WACCDebt/EquityHow to determine the health of a companyAltman-Z scoreShow peers with great health

5

3. ZTO Growth Analysis

3.1 Past

  • ZTO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -5.40%.
  • Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 15.35% on average per year.
  • The Revenue has grown by 10.88% in the past year. This is quite good.
  • Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-5.4%
EPS 3Y9.48%
EPS 5Y15.35%
EPS Q2Q%14.14%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.88%
Revenue growth 3Y11.54%
Revenue growth 5Y14.26%
Sales Q2Q%12.31%

3.2 Future

  • Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 11.07% on average per year.
  • Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.45% on average per year.
EPS Next Y17.71%
EPS Next 2Y15.13%
EPS Next 3Y13.14%
EPS Next 5Y11.07%
Revenue Next Year12.95%
Revenue Next 2Y11.02%
Revenue Next 3Y10.04%
Revenue Next 5Y7.45%

3.3 Evolution

  • Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
  • When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
ZTO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesZTO Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 20B 40B 60B
ZTO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesZTO Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 5 10 15 20

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5

4. ZTO Valuation Analysis

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

  • ZTO is valuated correctly with a Price/Earnings ratio of 14.70.
  • 86.96% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
  • ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a valuation a bit cheaper than the S&P500 average which is at 26.64.
  • A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 12.46 indicates a correct valuation of ZTO.
  • 95.65% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
  • ZTO is valuated rather cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 21.36, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.7
Fwd PE 12.46
ZTO Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsZTO Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 5 10 15 20 25

4.2 Price Multiples

Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF N/A
EV/EBITDA N/A
ZTO Per share dataZTO EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8 10

4.3 Compensation for Growth

  • ZTO's low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
  • The excellent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
  • ZTO's earnings are expected to grow with 13.14% in the coming years. This may justify a more expensive valuation.
PEG (NY)0.83
PEG (5Y)0.96
EPS Next 2Y15.13%
EPS Next 3Y13.14%

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Price/EarningsPrice/FCFFCF per shareEV/EBITDAPEG RATIOShow best valued peers

4

5. ZTO Dividend Analysis

5.1 Amount

  • ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.67%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
  • Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 1.12, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies listed in the same industry.
  • ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 1.82.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.67%

5.2 History

  • ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
ZTO Yearly Dividends per shareZTO Yearly Dividends per shareYearly Dividends per share 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0.5 1 1.5

5.3 Sustainability

DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y15.13%
EPS Next 3Y13.14%
ZTO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendZTO Yearly Income VS Free CF VS DividendYearly Income VS Free CF VS Dividend 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2B -2B 4B -4B 6B 8B

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ZTO Fundamentals: All Metrics, Ratios and Statistics

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR

NYSE:ZTO (5/1/2026, 5:57:59 PM)

After market: 25.14 0 (0%)

25.14

-0.45 (-1.76%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Industry StrengthN/A
Industry GrowthN/A
Earnings (Last)03-18
Earnings (Next)05-20
Inst Owners18.77%
Inst Owner Change-0.84%
Ins Owners0.28%
Ins Owner Change38.57%
Market Cap19.11B
Revenue(TTM)49.10B
Net Income(TTM)9.08B
Analysts85
Price Target27.91 (11.02%)
Short Float %3.87%
Short Ratio8.73
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield 2.67%
Yearly Dividend1.07
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-Date04-08
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)14.01%
Min EPS beat(2)-0.76%
Max EPS beat(2)28.78%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-1.54%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)28.78%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.25%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.19%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)5.37%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-1.48%
Min Revenue beat(2)-1.54%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-4.93%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.42%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.04%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-0.79%
PT rev (1m)10.53%
PT rev (3m)12.98%
EPS NQ rev (1m)N/A
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)2.69%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.79%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)N/A
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)1.82%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.22%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 14.7
Fwd PE 12.46
P/S 2.66
P/FCF N/A
P/OCF N/A
P/B 1.97
P/tB 2.36
EV/EBITDA N/A
EPS(TTM)1.71
EY6.8%
EPS(NY)2.02
Fwd EY8.03%
FCF(TTM)N/A
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)N/A
OCFYN/A
SpS9.46
BVpS12.79
TBVpS10.67
PEG (NY)0.83
PEG (5Y)0.96
Graham Number22.1797 (-11.78%)
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 9.98%
ROE 13.68%
ROCE 15.37%
ROIC 10.49%
ROICexc 15.52%
ROICexgc 19.53%
OM 21.33%
PM (TTM) 18.49%
GM 24.99%
FCFM N/A
ROA(3y)9.8%
ROA(5y)9.13%
ROE(3y)14.17%
ROE(5y)12.98%
ROIC(3y)11.2%
ROIC(5y)10.16%
ROICexc(3y)15.93%
ROICexc(5y)14.13%
ROICexgc(3y)19.82%
ROICexgc(5y)17.71%
ROCE(3y)16.14%
ROCE(5y)14.39%
ROICexgc growth 3Y8.93%
ROICexgc growth 5Y5.39%
ROICexc growth 3Y8.38%
ROICexc growth 5Y6.8%
OM growth 3Y-0.82%
OM growth 5Y2.5%
PM growth 3Y-1.32%
PM growth 5Y1.58%
GM growth 3Y-0.73%
GM growth 5Y1.54%
F-ScoreN/A
Asset Turnover0.54
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0.17
Debt/FCF N/A
Debt/EBITDA N/A
Cap/Depr N/A
Cap/Sales N/A
Interest Coverage N/A
Cash Conversion N/A
Profit Quality N/A
Current Ratio 1.49
Quick Ratio 1.48
Altman-Z 4.96
F-ScoreN/A
WACC4.8%
ROIC/WACC2.19
Cap/Depr(3y)N/A
Cap/Depr(5y)N/A
Cap/Sales(3y)N/A
Cap/Sales(5y)N/A
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-5.4%
EPS 3Y9.48%
EPS 5Y15.35%
EPS Q2Q%14.14%
EPS Next Y17.71%
EPS Next 2Y15.13%
EPS Next 3Y13.14%
EPS Next 5Y11.07%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)10.88%
Revenue growth 3Y11.54%
Revenue growth 5Y14.26%
Sales Q2Q%12.31%
Revenue Next Year12.95%
Revenue Next 2Y11.02%
Revenue Next 3Y10.04%
Revenue Next 5Y7.45%
EBIT growth 1Y-11.06%
EBIT growth 3Y10.63%
EBIT growth 5Y17.11%
EBIT Next Year48.86%
EBIT Next 3Y21.7%
EBIT Next 5Y15.8%
FCF growth 1YN/A
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1YN/A
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO Fundamental Analysis FAQ

What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?

ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to ZTO.


What is the valuation status for ZTO stock?

ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 5 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.


How profitable is ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?

ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.


What is the financial health of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?

The financial health rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 5 / 10.