ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
19.44 USD
+0.22 (+1.14%)
ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings could make ZTO a good candidate for value and quality investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO's Return On Assets of 9.21% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 13.57%, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 11.40%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 82.61% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 11.55%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(11.40%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
ZTO has a Profit Margin of 18.81%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
The Operating Margin of ZTO (24.13%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
ZTO's Gross Margin of 27.48% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ZTO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has less shares outstanding
ZTO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for ZTO is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.69. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO has a Altman-Z score of 3.69. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 65.22% of its industry peers.
The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO is 1.76, which is an excellent value as it means it would take ZTO, only 1.76 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
ZTO has a better Debt to FCF ratio (1.76) than 91.30% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.17 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 0.17, ZTO is in line with its industry, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.69 |
ROIC/WACC2.56
WACC4.45%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.21 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
ZTO has a Current ratio of 1.21. This is in the lower half of the industry: ZTO underperforms 73.91% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.21 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 1.21, ZTO is doing worse than 65.22% of the companies in the same industry.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
ZTO shows a slight negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has decreased by -6.97%.
ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.77% yearly.
Looking at the last year, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 15.26% in the last year.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 14.90% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)15.26%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
3.2 Future
ZTO is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 6.86% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 9.01% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-8.81%
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
EPS Next 5Y6.86%
Revenue Next Year12.91%
Revenue Next 2Y12.6%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y9.01%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.15, the valuation of ZTO can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.96% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 25.47, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 10.49, which indicates a very decent valuation of ZTO.
ZTO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 34.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.49 |
4.2 Price Multiples
ZTO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 10.46 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.33 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.56
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.40%.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.63. ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.41.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
NYSE:ZTO (11/24/2025, 11:46:03 AM)
19.44
+0.22 (+1.14%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners14.67%
Inst Owner Change-20.15%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.38B
Revenue(TTM)44.28B
Net Income(TTM)8.71B
Analysts86.67
Price Target25.53 (31.33%)
Short Float %4.28%
Short Ratio12.31
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-17.1%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-12.24%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)0.11%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-5.08%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)0.01%
EPS beat(16)7
Avg EPS beat(16)3.17%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-8.38%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.25%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-2.71%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.5%
PT rev (1m)-0.07%
PT rev (3m)2.95%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0.59%
EPS NQ rev (3m)1.4%
EPS NY rev (1m)0.8%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-2.66%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.45%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.1%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.15 | ||
| Fwd PE | 10.49 | ||
| P/S | 2.36 | ||
| P/FCF | 10.46 | ||
| P/OCF | 10.46 | ||
| P/B | 1.7 | ||
| P/tB | 2.03 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.33 |
EPS(TTM)1.6
EY8.23%
EPS(NY)1.85
Fwd EY9.53%
FCF(TTM)1.86
FCFY9.56%
OCF(TTM)1.86
OCFY9.56%
SpS8.24
BVpS11.41
TBVpS9.56
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.56
Graham Number20.27
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.21% | ||
| ROE | 13.57% | ||
| ROCE | 16.89% | ||
| ROIC | 11.4% | ||
| ROICexc | 17.36% | ||
| ROICexgc | 21.86% | ||
| OM | 24.13% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.81% | ||
| GM | 27.48% | ||
| FCFM | 22.56% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.17 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.76 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.79 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 73.59% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.96% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.21 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.69 |
F-Score5
WACC4.45%
ROIC/WACC2.56
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
EPS Next Y-8.81%
EPS Next 2Y2.65%
EPS Next 3Y6.01%
EPS Next 5Y6.86%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)15.26%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
Revenue Next Year12.91%
Revenue Next 2Y12.6%
Revenue Next 3Y12.19%
Revenue Next 5Y9.01%
EBIT growth 1Y4.83%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year24.25%
EBIT Next 3Y16.41%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y21.64%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.19%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 6 / 10 to ZTO.
What is the valuation status of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
What is the profitability of ZTO stock?
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 12.15 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.7.
What is the financial health of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
The financial health rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 7 / 10.