ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ZTO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US98980A1051 - ADR - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to ZTO. ZTO was compared to 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. ZTO scores excellent points on both the profitability and health parts. This is a solid base for a good stock. ZTO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! These ratings could make ZTO a good candidate for value investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
ZTO had positive earnings in each of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years ZTO always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO has a better Return On Assets (10.07%) than 90.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Equity of 15.08% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a better Return On Invested Capital (12.79%) than 86.36% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 12.61%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(12.79%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
The Profit Margin of ZTO (20.76%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
ZTO's Operating Margin of 26.35% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
ZTO has a better Gross Margin (29.65%) than 72.73% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
ZTO has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
ZTO has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.70. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO's Altman-Z score of 3.70 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.41. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.41 years to pay back of all of its debts.
ZTO's Debt to FCF ratio of 1.41 is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 90.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.15. This is a healthy value indicating a solid balance between debt and equity.
With a decent Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.15, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.64% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.7 |
ROIC/WACC2.84
WACC4.5%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.05 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.05, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 77.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.05. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of ZTO (1.05) is worse than 72.73% of its industry peers.
The current and quick ratio evaluation for ZTO is rather negative, while it does have excellent solvency and profitability. These ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for ZTO have decreased by -6.97% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 7.77% on average over the past years.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 15.26%.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-41.67%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)15.26%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.6%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.91% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 9.75% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.91%
Revenue Next Year16.05%
Revenue Next 2Y13.9%
Revenue Next 3Y13.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.75%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 12.65, the valuation of ZTO can be described as correct.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.36% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.85, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.20, the valuation of ZTO can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.45% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 34.98, ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.2 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.45% of the companies are valued more expensively.
ZTO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 9.62 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.81 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
ZTO's PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a correct valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)1.63
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.40%. Purely for dividend investing, there may be better candidates out there.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 3.81, ZTO pays a better dividend. On top of this ZTO pays more dividend than 90.91% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is a higher than the S&P500 average which is at 2.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
19.74
-0.47 (-2.33%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners12.7%
Inst Owner Change-33.84%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap15.76B
Analysts85.88
Price Target24.51 (24.16%)
Short Float %3.05%
Short Ratio7.36
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.4% |
Yearly Dividend1.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-14.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.6%
Min EPS beat(4)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.86%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.52%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)4.58%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.66%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.08%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.14%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.4%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.62%
PT rev (1m)0.99%
PT rev (3m)-9.46%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-18.89%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.58%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-6.03%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-1.26%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.26%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12.65 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.2 | ||
| P/S | 2.5 | ||
| P/FCF | 9.62 | ||
| P/OCF | 9.62 | ||
| P/B | 1.82 | ||
| P/tB | 2.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.81 |
EPS(TTM)1.56
EY7.9%
EPS(NY)2.14
Fwd EY10.87%
FCF(TTM)2.05
FCFY10.4%
OCF(TTM)2.05
OCFY10.4%
SpS7.89
BVpS10.86
TBVpS9.01
PEG (NY)1.22
PEG (5Y)1.63
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROCE | 18.59% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 18.63% | ||
| ROICexgc | 23.57% | ||
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% | ||
| FCFM | 26.01% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.62 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 125.33% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.7 |
F-Score6
WACC4.5%
ROIC/WACC2.84
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%-41.67%
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.91%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)15.26%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%10.6%
Revenue Next Year16.05%
Revenue Next 2Y13.9%
Revenue Next 3Y13.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.75%
EBIT growth 1Y15.41%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year37.59%
EBIT Next 3Y18.86%
EBIT Next 5Y13.44%
FCF growth 1Y-10.3%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-10.3%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%