ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:ZTO - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US98980A1051 - ADR - Currency: USD
ZTO gets a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 22 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making ZTO a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. ZTO is valued quite cheap, while showing a decent growth score. This is a good combination! These ratings would make ZTO suitable for value and quality investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year ZTO was profitable.
ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years ZTO had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
ZTO has a better Return On Assets (10.07%) than 90.91% of its industry peers.
ZTO's Return On Equity of 15.08% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 81.82% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 12.79%, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.36% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 10.66%. This is below the industry average of 12.73%.
The 3 year average ROIC (10.66%) for ZTO is below the current ROIC(12.79%), indicating increased profibility in the last year.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
ZTO's Profit Margin of 20.76% is amongst the best of the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
The Operating Margin of ZTO (26.35%) is better than 100.00% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 29.65%, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Gross Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
ZTO has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for ZTO has been increased compared to 5 years ago.
ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 3.51. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
ZTO has a Altman-Z score of 3.51. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 68.18% of its industry peers.
ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.41. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.41 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With an excellent Debt to FCF ratio value of 1.41, ZTO belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.15 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
ZTO's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.15 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. ZTO outperforms 59.09% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.51 |
ROIC/WACC2.95
WACC4.34%
2.3 Liquidity
ZTO has a Current Ratio of 1.05. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.05, ZTO is not doing good in the industry: 77.27% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.05. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
ZTO has a worse Quick ratio (1.05) than 77.27% of its industry peers.
ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 21.61% over the past year.
ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 7.77% yearly.
ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 14.76%.
The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average over the past years. This is quite good.
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 5.84% on average per year.
ZTO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 9.68% yearly.
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.84%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.68%
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 9.86, the valuation of ZTO can be described as reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of ZTO indicates a rather cheap valuation: ZTO is cheaper than 86.36% of the companies listed in the same industry.
ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 27.45.
ZTO is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.39.
100.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than ZTO, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of ZTO to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.90), we can say ZTO is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.86 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.39 |
4.2 Price Multiples
ZTO's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.45% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.45% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 8.77 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The low PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates a rather cheap valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of ZTO may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)1.27
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 3.94%.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.93. ZTO pays more dividend than 90.91% of the companies in the same industry.
ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.42.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.94% |
5.2 History
ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
18.05
+0.01 (+0.06%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners12.7%
Inst Owner Change-10.41%
Ins Owners0.23%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap14.41B
Analysts85
Price Target24.27 (34.46%)
Short Float %2.92%
Short Ratio5.05
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 3.94% |
Yearly Dividend1.02
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-14.87%
Min EPS beat(2)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(2)-14.87%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)0.6%
Min EPS beat(4)-14.88%
Max EPS beat(4)32.05%
EPS beat(8)4
Avg EPS beat(8)-0.86%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)7.52%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)4.58%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-3.65%
Min Revenue beat(2)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(2)5.66%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.08%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-3.14%
Revenue beat(12)5
Avg Revenue beat(12)-0.4%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.62%
PT rev (1m)-10.35%
PT rev (3m)-8.39%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.58%
EPS NQ rev (3m)N/A
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.58%
EPS NY rev (3m)-1.06%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)N/A
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)6.72%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.86 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.39 | ||
| P/S | 2.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 8.77 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.77 | ||
| P/B | 1.66 | ||
| P/tB | 2 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.14 |
EPS(TTM)1.83
EY10.14%
EPS(NY)2.15
Fwd EY11.91%
FCF(TTM)2.06
FCFY11.4%
OCF(TTM)2.06
OCFY11.4%
SpS7.91
BVpS10.88
TBVpS9.04
PEG (NY)0.95
PEG (5Y)1.27
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 10.07% | ||
| ROE | 15.08% | ||
| ROCE | 18.59% | ||
| ROIC | 12.79% | ||
| ROICexc | 18.63% | ||
| ROICexgc | 23.57% | ||
| OM | 26.35% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 20.76% | ||
| GM | 29.65% | ||
| FCFM | 26.01% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexcg growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.49
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.15 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.41 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.62 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 78.73% | ||
| Profit Quality | 125.33% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.05 | ||
| Altman-Z | 3.51 |
F-Score6
WACC4.34%
ROIC/WACC2.95
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)21.61%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%39.43%
EPS Next Y10.37%
EPS Next 2Y11.61%
EPS Next 3Y11.31%
EPS Next 5Y5.84%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)14.76%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%9.35%
Revenue Next Year17.53%
Revenue Next 2Y15.15%
Revenue Next 3Y14.08%
Revenue Next 5Y9.68%
EBIT growth 1Y15.41%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year37.59%
EBIT Next 3Y18.86%
EBIT Next 5Y13.36%
FCF growth 1Y-10.3%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-10.3%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%