ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:ZTO - US98980A1051 - ADR
22.32 USD
-0.12 (-0.53%)
22.88 USD
+0.56 (+2.51%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to ZTO. ZTO was compared to 23 industry peers in the Air Freight & Logistics industry. Both the health and profitability get an excellent rating, making ZTO a very profitable company, without any liquidiy or solvency issues. ZTO may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth These ratings could make ZTO a good candidate for value and quality investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
- ZTO had positive earnings in the past year.
- ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
- In the past 5 years ZTO has always been profitable.
- ZTO had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
- ZTO has a Return On Assets of 9.76%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 86.96% of its industry peers.
- With a decent Return On Equity value of 13.66%, ZTO is doing good in the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
- ZTO has a better Return On Invested Capital (10.83%) than 82.61% of its industry peers.
- Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for ZTO is in line with the industry average of 12.36%.
- The last Return On Invested Capital (10.83%) for ZTO is above the 3 year average (10.66%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.76% | ||
| ROE | 13.66% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
1.3 Margins
- ZTO has a Profit Margin of 18.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of ZTO has declined.
- ZTO has a Operating Margin of 22.60%. This is amongst the best in the industry. ZTO outperforms 100.00% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of ZTO has grown nicely.
- ZTO has a Gross Margin of 25.99%. This is in the better half of the industry: ZTO outperforms 69.57% of its industry peers.
- In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of ZTO has remained more or less at the same level.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 22.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.6% | ||
| GM | 25.99% |
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
- The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so ZTO is creating value.
- Compared to 1 year ago, ZTO has less shares outstanding
- Compared to 5 years ago, ZTO has more shares outstanding
- ZTO has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
- ZTO has an Altman-Z score of 4.54. This indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
- Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 4.54, ZTO is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 78.26% of the companies in the same industry.
- ZTO has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.13. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.13 years to pay back of all of its debts.
- The Debt to FCF ratio of ZTO (1.13) is better than 95.65% of its industry peers.
- A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.18 indicates that ZTO is not too dependend on debt financing.
- With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.18, ZTO perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 56.52% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.13 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.54 |
ROIC/WACC2.31
WACC4.68%
2.3 Liquidity
- A Current Ratio of 1.38 indicates that ZTO should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
- The Current ratio of ZTO (1.38) is worse than 60.87% of its industry peers.
- ZTO has a Quick Ratio of 1.38. This is a normal value and indicates that ZTO is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
- ZTO has a Quick ratio (1.38) which is in line with its industry peers.
- ZTO does not score too well on the current and quick ratio evaluation. However, as it has excellent solvency and profitability, these ratios do not necessarly indicate liquidity issues and need to be evaluated against the specifics of the business.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.38 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
- The earnings per share for ZTO have decreased by -6.97% in the last year.
- Measured over the past 5 years, ZTO shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 7.77% on average per year.
- ZTO shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 13.17%.
- Measured over the past years, ZTO shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 14.90% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
3.2 Future
- Based on estimates for the next years, ZTO will show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 6.48% on average per year.
- ZTO is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 8.62% yearly.
EPS Next Y-4.36%
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
EPS Next 5Y6.48%
Revenue Next Year13.07%
Revenue Next 2Y12.22%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5Y8.62%
3.3 Evolution
- The EPS growth rate is stable: in the next years the growth will be about the same than in the last years.
- The Revenue growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
- With a Price/Earnings ratio of 13.86, ZTO is valued correctly.
- ZTO's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 86.96% of the companies in the same industry.
- Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 27.32, ZTO is valued a bit cheaper.
- The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 11.66, which indicates a very decent valuation of ZTO.
- Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- ZTO is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 24.32, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.86 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.66 |
4.2 Price Multiples
- Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, ZTO is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.65% of the companies are valued more expensively.
- ZTO's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. ZTO is cheaper than 95.65% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 11.66 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.01 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
- ZTO has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.78
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
- ZTO has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 2.90%.
- ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 1.13. ZTO pays more dividend than 91.30% of the companies in the same industry.
- ZTO's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 1.83.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
5.2 History
- ZTO has been paying a dividend for over 5 years, so it has already some track record.
- ZTO has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
DPN/A
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
22.32
-0.12 (-0.53%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorIndustrials
GICS IndustryGroupTransportation
GICS IndustryAir Freight & Logistics
Earnings (Last)11-20 2025-11-20/bmo
Earnings (Next)03-16 2026-03-16/amc
Inst Owners16.23%
Inst Owner Change-0.48%
Ins Owners0.24%
Ins Owner ChangeN/A
Market Cap17.66B
Revenue(TTM)47.51B
Net Income(TTM)8.84B
Analysts86
Price Target24.7 (10.66%)
Short Float %3.61%
Short Ratio8.54
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
Yearly Dividend1.04
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years2
Div Non Decr Years3
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)4.73%
Min EPS beat(2)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(2)28.78%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-5.07%
Min EPS beat(4)-19.32%
Max EPS beat(4)28.78%
EPS beat(8)3
Avg EPS beat(8)-2.21%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)1.06%
EPS beat(16)8
Avg EPS beat(16)5%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.62%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.81%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.42%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-3.13%
Min Revenue beat(4)-12.95%
Max Revenue beat(4)5.66%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.69%
Revenue beat(12)3
Avg Revenue beat(12)-2.99%
Revenue beat(16)5
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.19%
PT rev (1m)-3.24%
PT rev (3m)-3.31%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)5.18%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)4.46%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.57%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.6%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13.86 | ||
| Fwd PE | 11.66 | ||
| P/S | 2.59 | ||
| P/FCF | 11.66 | ||
| P/OCF | 11.66 | ||
| P/B | 1.9 | ||
| P/tB | 2.27 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.01 |
EPS(TTM)1.61
EY7.21%
EPS(NY)1.92
Fwd EY8.58%
FCF(TTM)1.91
FCFY8.58%
OCF(TTM)1.91
OCFY8.58%
SpS8.62
BVpS11.75
TBVpS9.85
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.78
Graham Number20.63
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 9.76% | ||
| ROE | 13.66% | ||
| ROCE | 16.16% | ||
| ROIC | 10.83% | ||
| ROICexc | 16.01% | ||
| ROICexgc | 19.96% | ||
| OM | 22.6% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 18.6% | ||
| GM | 25.99% | ||
| FCFM | 22.2% |
ROA(3y)9.37%
ROA(5y)8.59%
ROE(3y)13.81%
ROE(5y)12%
ROIC(3y)10.66%
ROIC(5y)9.47%
ROICexc(3y)14.74%
ROICexc(5y)13.19%
ROICexgc(3y)18.24%
ROICexgc(5y)16.71%
ROCE(3y)15.17%
ROCE(5y)13.22%
ROICexgc growth 3Y17.92%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-3.25%
ROICexc growth 3Y19.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y-0.78%
OM growth 3Y13.76%
OM growth 5Y1.52%
PM growth 3Y8.39%
PM growth 5Y-4.95%
GM growth 3Y12.65%
GM growth 5Y0.68%
F-Score6
Asset Turnover0.52
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.13 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.87 | ||
| Cap/Depr | N/A | ||
| Cap/Sales | N/A | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 76.65% | ||
| Profit Quality | 119.35% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.38 | ||
| Altman-Z | 4.54 |
F-Score6
WACC4.68%
ROIC/WACC2.31
Cap/Depr(3y)234.92%
Cap/Depr(5y)324.98%
Cap/Sales(3y)17.21%
Cap/Sales(5y)23.77%
Profit Quality(3y)66.3%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-6.97%
EPS 3Y24.74%
EPS 5Y7.77%
EPS Q2Q%6.9%
EPS Next Y-4.36%
EPS Next 2Y3.99%
EPS Next 3Y6.85%
EPS Next 5Y6.48%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)13.17%
Revenue growth 3Y13.35%
Revenue growth 5Y14.9%
Sales Q2Q%11.14%
Revenue Next Year13.07%
Revenue Next 2Y12.22%
Revenue Next 3Y11.47%
Revenue Next 5Y8.62%
EBIT growth 1Y-3.07%
EBIT growth 3Y28.95%
EBIT growth 5Y16.65%
EBIT Next Year25.35%
EBIT Next 3Y15.83%
EBIT Next 5Y13.21%
FCF growth 1Y-20.13%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5Y38.67%
OCF growth 1Y-20.13%
OCF growth 3Y16.54%
OCF growth 5Y12.64%
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR / ZTO FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO.
What is the valuation status for ZTO stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 7 / 10 to ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO). This can be considered as Undervalued.
Can you provide the profitability details for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR?
ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) has a profitability rating of 8 / 10.
Can you provide the PE and PB ratios for ZTO stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for ZTO EXPRESS CAYMAN INC-ADR (ZTO) is 13.86 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.9.