GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GES - US4016171054 - Common Stock
16.77 USD
0 (0%)
16.77 USD
0 (0%)
GES gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has an average financial health and profitability rating. GES has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
GES has a Return On Assets (0.55%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of GES (3.35%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GES (5.89%) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GES is in line with the industry average of 12.14%.
The 3 year average ROIC (11.49%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(5.89%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.55% | ||
| ROE | 3.35% | ||
| ROIC | 5.89% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
GES has a Profit Margin of 0.53%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GES outperforms 51.64% of its industry peers.
GES's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.53%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 64.75% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GES has remained more or less at the same level.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 42.70%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 63.93% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.53% | ||
| GM | 42.7% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
GES has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GES has an Altman-Z score of 2.17. This is not the best score and indicates that GES is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.17, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 48.36% of the companies in the same industry.
The Debt to FCF ratio of GES is 49.11, which is on the high side as it means it would take GES, 49.11 years of fcf income to pay off all of its debts.
GES has a Debt to FCF ratio (49.11) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.22. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
GES's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.22 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 40.16% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.22 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 49.11 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.17 |
ROIC/WACC1.06
WACC5.55%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.52 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GES has a Current ratio of 1.52. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 62.30% of its industry peers.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.52. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 0.76, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 63.93% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased strongly by -34.00% in the last year.
GES shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.64% yearly.
GES shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.88%.
GES shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.26% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%2.94%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%7.16%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -0.01% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-16.94%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.8%
Revenue Next 2Y6.41%
Revenue Next 3Y5.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.16, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 86.07% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.92.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.80, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 86.89% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 23.57, GES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
77.05% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
GES's Price/Free Cash Flow is on the same level as the industry average.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 68.86 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.23 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.37%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 2.20, GES pays a better dividend. On top of this GES pays more dividend than 90.16% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, GES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.37% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 43.88%!
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
393.60% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
GES's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP393.6%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
16.77
0 (0%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners57.77%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners31.89%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap874.56M
Revenue(TTM)3.00B
Net Income(TTM)16.32M
Analysts46.67
Price Target17.09 (1.91%)
Short Float %12.28%
Short Ratio7.58
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.37% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP393.6%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)48.88%
Min EPS beat(2)36.86%
Max EPS beat(2)60.89%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)23.49%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)60.89%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)16.26%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)24.73%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)18.99%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.59%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.42%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.56%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.32%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.24%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.93%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.16 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 | ||
| P/S | 0.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 68.86 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.64 | ||
| P/B | 1.79 | ||
| P/tB | 1.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.23 |
EPS(TTM)1.65
EY9.84%
EPS(NY)1.71
Fwd EY10.21%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.45%
OCF(TTM)1.94
OCFY11.57%
SpS59.28
BVpS9.35
TBVpS8.66
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
Graham Number18.63
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.55% | ||
| ROE | 3.35% | ||
| ROCE | 6.65% | ||
| ROIC | 5.89% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.47% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.6% | ||
| OM | 4.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.53% | ||
| GM | 42.7% | ||
| FCFM | 0.41% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.04
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.22 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 49.11 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.84 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.86% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.47 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 48.19% | ||
| Profit Quality | 77.81% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.17 |
F-Score5
WACC5.55%
ROIC/WACC1.06
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%2.94%
EPS Next Y-16.94%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%7.16%
Revenue Next Year8.8%
Revenue Next 2Y6.41%
Revenue Next 3Y5.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-36.61%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year26.43%
EBIT Next 3Y11.08%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-91.05%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-52.93%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%
GUESS? INC / GES FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to GES.
What is the valuation status for GES stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GUESS? INC (GES). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
GUESS? INC (GES) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for GUESS? INC (GES) is 10.16 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.79.
What is the expected EPS growth for GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GUESS? INC (GES) is expected to decline by -16.94% in the next year.