GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GES - US4016171054 - Common Stock
16.99 USD
-0.02 (-0.12%)
16.99 USD
0 (0%)
Taking everything into account, GES scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GES was compared to 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has an average financial health and profitability rating. GES has a valuation in line with the averages, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
GES had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
Each year in the past 5 years GES had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GES has a Return On Assets (0.55%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
With a Return On Equity value of 3.35%, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.84% of the companies in the same industry.
The Return On Invested Capital of GES (5.89%) is better than 60.66% of its industry peers.
GES had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 11.49%. This is in line with the industry average of 11.71%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (5.89%) for GES is well below the 3 year average (11.49%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that GES had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.55% | ||
| ROE | 3.35% | ||
| ROIC | 5.89% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
GES has a Profit Margin of 0.53%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GES outperforms 54.10% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has declined.
GES has a better Operating Margin (4.53%) than 65.57% of its industry peers.
GES's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 42.70%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.57% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.53% | ||
| GM | 42.7% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GES is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GES has less shares outstanding
GES has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.17 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GES has a Altman-Z score (2.17) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 49.11. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GES would need 49.11 years to pay back of all of its debts.
With a Debt to FCF ratio value of 49.11, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 47.54% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.22. This is a high value indicating a heavy dependency on external financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GES (1.22) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.22 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 49.11 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.17 |
ROIC/WACC1.2
WACC4.92%
2.3 Liquidity
GES has a Current Ratio of 1.52. This is a normal value and indicates that GES is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a Current ratio of 1.52. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 64.75% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.76 indicates that GES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GES has a Quick ratio of 0.76. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 65.57% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased strongly by -34.00% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.64% on average over the past years.
GES shows a small growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 7.88%.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%2.94%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%7.16%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -0.01% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 5.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-16.94%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.8%
Revenue Next 2Y6.41%
Revenue Next 3Y5.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 10.30, which indicates a very decent valuation of GES.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 83.61% of the companies are valued more expensively.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.46, GES is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.92, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GES indicates a rather cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 84.43% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GES to the average of the S&P500 Index (36.10), we can say GES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.3 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.92 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GES is valued a bit cheaper than the industry average as 75.41% of the companies are valued more expensively.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as GES.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 69.76 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.29 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.22
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.29%, GES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 5.67. GES pays more dividend than 94.26% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.32.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.29% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 43.88%!
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
393.60% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
GES's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP393.6%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
16.99
-0.02 (-0.12%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners57.94%
Inst Owner Change-55.99%
Ins Owners31.89%
Ins Owner Change2.41%
Market Cap886.03M
Revenue(TTM)3.00B
Net Income(TTM)16.32M
Analysts46.67
Price Target17.09 (0.59%)
Short Float %16.66%
Short Ratio9.25
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.29% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP393.6%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)48.88%
Min EPS beat(2)36.86%
Max EPS beat(2)60.89%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)23.49%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)60.89%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)16.26%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)24.73%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)18.99%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.59%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.42%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.56%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.32%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.24%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)-11.06%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)3.62%
EPS NY rev (3m)9.21%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.93%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.21%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.3 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.92 | ||
| P/S | 0.29 | ||
| P/FCF | 69.76 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.76 | ||
| P/B | 1.82 | ||
| P/tB | 1.96 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.29 |
EPS(TTM)1.65
EY9.71%
EPS(NY)1.71
Fwd EY10.08%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.43%
OCF(TTM)1.94
OCFY11.42%
SpS59.28
BVpS9.35
TBVpS8.66
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.22
Graham Number18.63
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.55% | ||
| ROE | 3.35% | ||
| ROCE | 6.65% | ||
| ROIC | 5.89% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.47% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.6% | ||
| OM | 4.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.53% | ||
| GM | 42.7% | ||
| FCFM | 0.41% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.04
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.22 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 49.11 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.84 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.86% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.47 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 48.19% | ||
| Profit Quality | 77.81% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.17 |
F-Score5
WACC4.92%
ROIC/WACC1.2
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%2.94%
EPS Next Y-16.94%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%7.16%
Revenue Next Year8.8%
Revenue Next 2Y6.41%
Revenue Next 3Y5.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-36.61%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year26.43%
EBIT Next 3Y11.08%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-91.05%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-52.93%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%
GUESS? INC / GES FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for GUESS? INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to GES.
What is the valuation status of GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GUESS? INC (GES). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
GUESS? INC (GES) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What is the valuation of GUESS? INC based on its PE and PB ratios?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for GUESS? INC (GES) is 10.3 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.82.
Can you provide the dividend sustainability for GES stock?
The dividend rating of GUESS? INC (GES) is 6 / 10 and the dividend payout ratio is 393.6%.