GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4016171054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Overall GES gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. We evaluated GES against 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. GES scores decently on growth, while it is valued quite cheap. This could make an interesting combination.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GES had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GES always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GES has a Return On Assets (2.66%) which is in line with its industry peers.
GES's Return On Equity of 14.59% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 71.90% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 6.76%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 61.98% of the companies in the same industry.
GES had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 11.49%. This is in line with the industry average of 13.02%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (6.76%) for GES is well below the 3 year average (11.49%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that GES had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.59% | ||
| ROIC | 6.76% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 2.05%, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.68% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has declined.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 4.11%, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.50% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GES has remained more or less at the same level.
GES's Gross Margin of 43.18% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 64.46% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.05% | ||
| GM | 43.18% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GES has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GES has an Altman-Z score of 2.45. This is not the best score and indicates that GES is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
Looking at the Altman-Z score, with a value of 2.45, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 55.37% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 14.84. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GES would need 14.84 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GES has a Debt to FCF ratio of 14.84. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GES outperforms 47.11% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96 indicates that GES is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 0.96, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 42.15% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
ROIC/WACC1.35
WACC5.02%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.50 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.50, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 59.50% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.83 indicates that GES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GES's Quick ratio of 0.83 is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 66.12% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.83 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GES shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -37.46%.
GES shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.64% yearly.
GES shows a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 29.20%.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.46%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)29.2%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%4.62%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -3.55% on average per year.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-24.98%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.6%
Revenue Next 2Y3.84%
Revenue Next 3Y3.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 5.66, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 95.87% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 23.99, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.54, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
89.26% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GES to the average of the S&P500 Index (20.35), we can say GES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.54 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 84.30% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GES indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 70.25% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 16.24 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.14 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GES has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
GES's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.55% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.22
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.76%, GES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.49, GES pays a better dividend. On top of this GES pays more dividend than 97.52% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.44.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.76% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of GES grows each year by 43.88%, which is quite nice.
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
250.59% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
GES's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP250.59%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
11.15
+0.48 (+4.5%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.88%
Inst Owner Change0.38%
Ins Owners33.92%
Ins Owner Change38.57%
Market Cap578.02M
Analysts74.29
Price Target15.98 (43.32%)
Short Float %24.86%
Short Ratio3.92
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.76% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP250.59%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.89%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(2)6.44%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)6.42%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)32.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)23.4%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)14.53%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)28.03%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.22%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.99%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.82%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.27%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.07%
PT rev (1m)-2.08%
PT rev (3m)-18.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-163.83%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-353.65%
EPS NY rev (1m)-29.31%
EPS NY rev (3m)-35.04%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.22%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.18%
Revenue NY rev (1m)2.21%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.66 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.54 | ||
| P/S | 0.16 | ||
| P/FCF | 16.24 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.75 | ||
| P/B | 1.14 | ||
| P/tB | 1.22 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.14 |
EPS(TTM)1.97
EY17.67%
EPS(NY)1.48
Fwd EY13.26%
FCF(TTM)0.69
FCFY6.16%
OCF(TTM)2.35
OCFY21.05%
SpS69.2
BVpS9.74
TBVpS9.1
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.22
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.59% | ||
| ROCE | 7.63% | ||
| ROIC | 6.76% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.63% | ||
| OM | 4.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.05% | ||
| GM | 43.18% | ||
| FCFM | 0.99% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.84 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.24% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.49 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 56.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 48.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.83 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
F-Score5
WACC5.02%
ROIC/WACC1.35
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.46%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
EPS Next Y-24.98%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)29.2%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%4.62%
Revenue Next Year4.6%
Revenue Next 2Y3.84%
Revenue Next 3Y3.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-45.04%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year22.2%
EBIT Next 3Y10.9%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-86.11%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-63.17%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%