GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4016171054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GES. GES was compared to 120 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. GES may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GES had positive earnings in the past year.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
GES had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
GES has a Return On Assets (2.66%) which is in line with its industry peers.
The Return On Equity of GES (14.59%) is better than 70.83% of its industry peers.
GES's Return On Invested Capital of 6.76% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 62.50% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GES is in line with the industry average of 13.01%.
The 3 year average ROIC (11.49%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(6.76%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.59% | ||
| ROIC | 6.76% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
GES has a Profit Margin of 2.05%. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GES outperforms 57.50% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has declined.
GES has a Operating Margin (4.11%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GES has remained more or less at the same level.
With a decent Gross Margin value of 43.18%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.00% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.05% | ||
| GM | 43.18% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
GES has a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC), which is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), which means it is creating value.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GES is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.46 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
With a Altman-Z score value of 2.46, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 55.83% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 14.84. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GES would need 14.84 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 14.84, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 48.33% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96. This is a neutral value indicating GES is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
GES's Debt to Equity ratio of 0.96 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 41.67% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.46 |
ROIC/WACC1.34
WACC5.04%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.50 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a Current ratio value of 1.50, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 58.33% of the companies in the same industry.
A Quick Ratio of 0.83 indicates that GES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
GES has a better Quick ratio (0.83) than 67.50% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.83 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased strongly by -37.46% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.64% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, GES shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 29.20%.
GES shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.26% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.46%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)29.2%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%4.62%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -3.55% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 3.07% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-24.98%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year4.6%
Revenue Next 2Y3.84%
Revenue Next 3Y3.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
GES is valuated cheaply with a Price/Earnings ratio of 5.47.
GES's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 93.33% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.19.
GES is valuated cheaply with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.29.
90.00% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.13, GES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.47 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.29 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 84.17% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 73.33% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 15.74 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.26 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
GES's earnings are expected to decrease with -3.55% in the coming years. This may justify a cheaper valuation.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.18
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.77%, GES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.15, GES pays a better dividend. On top of this GES pays more dividend than 97.50% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.77% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 43.88%!
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
GES pays out 250.59% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of GES has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP250.59%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
NYSE:GES (5/30/2025, 2:15:52 PM)
10.77
-0.36 (-3.23%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners69.88%
Inst Owner Change-4.46%
Ins Owners33.92%
Ins Owner Change38.57%
Market Cap560.15M
Analysts74.29
Price Target15.98 (48.38%)
Short Float %24.33%
Short Ratio4.1
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.77% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP250.59%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.89%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(2)6.44%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)6.42%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)32.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)23.4%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)14.53%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)28.03%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.22%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.99%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.82%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.27%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.07%
PT rev (1m)-2.08%
PT rev (3m)-18.71%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-11.29%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-404.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-35.04%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.3%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.8%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.47 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.29 | ||
| P/S | 0.16 | ||
| P/FCF | 15.74 | ||
| P/OCF | 4.6 | ||
| P/B | 1.11 | ||
| P/tB | 1.19 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.26 |
EPS(TTM)1.97
EY18.29%
EPS(NY)1.48
Fwd EY13.72%
FCF(TTM)0.68
FCFY6.35%
OCF(TTM)2.34
OCFY21.72%
SpS68.97
BVpS9.71
TBVpS9.07
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.18
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.59% | ||
| ROCE | 7.63% | ||
| ROIC | 6.76% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.63% | ||
| OM | 4.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.05% | ||
| GM | 43.18% | ||
| FCFM | 0.99% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.84 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.24% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.49 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 56.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 48.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.83 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.46 |
F-Score5
WACC5.04%
ROIC/WACC1.34
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-37.46%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-26.37%
EPS Next Y-24.98%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-3.55%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)29.2%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%4.62%
Revenue Next Year4.6%
Revenue Next 2Y3.84%
Revenue Next 3Y3.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-45.04%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year22.2%
EBIT Next 3Y10.87%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-86.11%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-63.17%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%