GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - US4016171054 - Common Stock
16.83 USD
-0.05 (-0.3%)
16.83 USD
0 (0%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10 to GES. GES was compared to 123 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. While GES is still in line with the averages on profitability rating, there are concerns on its financial health. GES is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GES had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GES had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
Looking at the Return On Assets, with a value of 0.68%, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 52.85% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Return On Equity of 4.06% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 63.41% of its industry peers.
GES has a Return On Invested Capital of 5.88%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 60.98% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GES is in line with the industry average of 12.10%.
The 3 year average ROIC (11.49%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(5.88%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.68% | ||
| ROE | 4.06% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
GES has a Profit Margin (0.54%) which is in line with its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has declined.
The Operating Margin of GES (3.80%) is better than 60.16% of its industry peers.
GES's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GES's Gross Margin of 42.81% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 66.67% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.54% | ||
| GM | 42.81% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GES is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
GES has a worse debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
GES has an Altman-Z score of 2.45. This is not the best score and indicates that GES is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GES has a Altman-Z score of 2.45. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GES outperforms 52.85% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.20 is on the high side and indicates that GES has dependencies on debt financing.
GES's Debt to Equity ratio of 1.20 is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. GES is outperformed by 62.60% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.2 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
ROIC/WACC1.19
WACC4.96%
2.3 Liquidity
GES has a Current Ratio of 1.57. This is a normal value and indicates that GES is financially healthy and should not expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a better Current ratio (1.57) than 69.11% of its industry peers.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.57. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
Looking at the Quick ratio, with a value of 0.76, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 66.67% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased strongly by -38.11% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.64% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.88% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.11%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-38.1%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%5.51%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to decrease by -0.09% on average over the next years.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 4.56% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-23.95%
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.5%
Revenue Next 2Y5.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.26, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
85.37% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Price/Earnings ratio.
GES's Price/Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 26.90.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.92, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
85.37% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 22.52, GES is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.92 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of GES indicates a somewhat cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 77.24% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.45 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.35%, which is a nice return.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 5.41. GES pays more dividend than 92.68% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.32, GES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.35% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of GES grows each year by 43.88%, which is quite nice.
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
GES pays out 331.39% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
GES's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP331.39%
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
16.83
-0.05 (-0.3%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners63.04%
Inst Owner Change107.85%
Ins Owners32.05%
Ins Owner Change6.24%
Market Cap876.34M
Analysts74.29
Price Target19.21 (14.14%)
Short Float %17.51%
Short Ratio5.23
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.35% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP331.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.65%
Min EPS beat(2)6.44%
Max EPS beat(2)36.86%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)7.45%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)36.86%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)18.57%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)19.1%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)17.42%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.83%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.36%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.95%
PT rev (1m)2.08%
PT rev (3m)4.25%
EPS NQ rev (1m)9.09%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-42.86%
EPS NY rev (1m)2.3%
EPS NY rev (3m)1.37%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.27%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.7%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.31%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.77%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.26 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.92 | ||
| P/S | 0.24 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 12.31 | ||
| P/B | 1.81 | ||
| P/tB | 1.95 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.45 |
EPS(TTM)1.64
EY9.74%
EPS(NY)1.7
Fwd EY10.08%
FCF(TTM)-0.3
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.37
OCFY8.12%
SpS69.96
BVpS9.29
TBVpS8.61
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.21
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.68% | ||
| ROE | 4.06% | ||
| ROCE | 6.64% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.34% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.46% | ||
| OM | 3.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.54% | ||
| GM | 42.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.2 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.78 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 124.78% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.86 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 34.24% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
F-Score7
WACC4.96%
ROIC/WACC1.19
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.11%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-38.1%
EPS Next Y-23.95%
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%5.51%
Revenue Next Year7.5%
Revenue Next 2Y5.39%
Revenue Next 3Y4.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-44.43%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year18.68%
EBIT Next 3Y11.08%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-111.81%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-66.28%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%