GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - NYSE:GES - US4016171054 - Common Stock
16.74 USD
-0.08 (-0.48%)
16.74 USD
0 (0%)
GES gets a fundamental rating of 4 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has a medium profitability rating, but doesn't score so well on its financial health evaluation. GES has a valuation in line with the averages, but on the other hand it scores bad on growth.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GES had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GES had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GES's Return On Assets of 0.68% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 50.82% of its industry peers.
GES has a Return On Equity of 4.06%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 61.48% of its industry peers.
With a decent Return On Invested Capital value of 5.88%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 62.30% of the companies in the same industry.
GES had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 11.49%. This is in line with the industry average of 12.02%.
The 3 year average ROIC (11.49%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(5.88%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.68% | ||
| ROE | 4.06% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
GES's Profit Margin of 0.54% is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 54.10% of its industry peers.
GES's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Operating Margin, with a value of 3.80%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 60.66% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 42.81%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 65.57% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.54% | ||
| GM | 42.81% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), so GES is creating value.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GES has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.45 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GES's Altman-Z score of 2.45 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 51.64% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.20 is on the high side and indicates that GES has dependencies on debt financing.
With a Debt to Equity ratio value of 1.20, GES is not doing good in the industry: 63.11% of the companies in the same industry are doing better.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.2 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
ROIC/WACC1.19
WACC4.96%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.57 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
GES has a Current ratio of 1.57. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 67.21% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 0.76 indicates that GES may have some problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 0.76, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 65.57% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
The earnings per share for GES have decreased strongly by -38.11% in the last year.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.64% on average over the past years.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.88% in the past year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 2.26% on average over the past years.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.11%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-38.1%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%5.51%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -0.09% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 4.56% on average over the next years.
EPS Next Y-23.95%
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.57%
Revenue Next 2Y5.5%
Revenue Next 3Y4.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 10.21, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 85.25% of the companies in the same industry.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 27.29. GES is valued rather cheaply when compared to this.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.87 indicates a reasonable valuation of GES.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaper than 85.25% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 22.80.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.87 |
4.2 Price Multiples
79.51% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.42 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.2
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.38%, which is a nice return.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.22, GES pays a better dividend. On top of this GES pays more dividend than 93.44% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.38.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.38% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of GES grows each year by 43.88%, which is quite nice.
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
331.39% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of GES has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP331.39%
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
16.74
-0.08 (-0.48%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners63.04%
Inst Owner Change107.85%
Ins Owners32.05%
Ins Owner Change6.24%
Market Cap871.82M
Analysts74.29
Price Target17.09 (2.09%)
Short Float %14.63%
Short Ratio4.54
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.38% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP331.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.65%
Min EPS beat(2)6.44%
Max EPS beat(2)36.86%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)7.45%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)36.86%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)18.57%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)19.1%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)17.42%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.83%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.36%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.95%
PT rev (1m)4.69%
PT rev (3m)4.69%
EPS NQ rev (1m)9.09%
EPS NQ rev (3m)9.09%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)2.3%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.27%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.27%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.06%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.37%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.21 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.87 | ||
| P/S | 0.24 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 12.25 | ||
| P/B | 1.8 | ||
| P/tB | 1.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.42 |
EPS(TTM)1.64
EY9.8%
EPS(NY)1.7
Fwd EY10.14%
FCF(TTM)-0.3
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.37
OCFY8.17%
SpS69.95
BVpS9.29
TBVpS8.61
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.2
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.68% | ||
| ROE | 4.06% | ||
| ROCE | 6.64% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.34% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.46% | ||
| OM | 3.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.54% | ||
| GM | 42.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.2 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.78 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 124.78% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.86 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 34.24% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.45 |
F-Score7
WACC4.96%
ROIC/WACC1.19
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.11%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-38.1%
EPS Next Y-23.95%
EPS Next 2Y-7.19%
EPS Next 3Y-0.09%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%5.51%
Revenue Next Year7.57%
Revenue Next 2Y5.5%
Revenue Next 3Y4.56%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-44.43%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year18.68%
EBIT Next 3Y11.08%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-111.81%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-66.28%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%