GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4016171054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
Taking everything into account, GES scores 5 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GES was compared to 121 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has an average financial health and profitability rating. GES is valued quite cheap, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GES had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
GES has a Return On Assets (2.66%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Equity, with a value of 14.59%, GES is in the better half of the industry, outperforming 71.90% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Return On Invested Capital of 6.76%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 63.64% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GES is in line with the industry average of 12.99%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (6.76%) for GES is well below the 3 year average (11.49%), which needs to be investigated, but indicates that GES had better years and this may not be a problem.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.59% | ||
| ROIC | 6.76% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
Looking at the Profit Margin, with a value of 2.05%, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 57.02% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of GES has declined.
GES's Operating Margin of 4.11% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 60.33% of its industry peers.
GES's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
The Gross Margin of GES (43.18%) is better than 65.29% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.05% | ||
| GM | 43.18% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
The debt/assets ratio for GES is higher compared to a year ago.
2.2 Solvency
GES has an Altman-Z score of 2.46. This is not the best score and indicates that GES is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of GES (2.46) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 14.84. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GES would need 14.84 years to pay back of all of its debts.
Looking at the Debt to FCF ratio, with a value of 14.84, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 50.41% of the companies in the same industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 0.96 indicates that GES is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of GES (0.96) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.84 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.46 |
ROIC/WACC1.36
WACC4.95%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.50 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.50, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 61.16% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.50. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of GES (0.83) is better than 70.25% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.83 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GES shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.98%.
GES shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 4.64% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.88% in the past year.
GES shows a small growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 2.26% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.98%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-62.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%9.44%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -0.93% on average per year.
GES is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 3.52% yearly.
EPS Next Y-24.98%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-0.93%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year5.03%
Revenue Next 2Y4.12%
Revenue Next 3Y3.52%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 6.64, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.56% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 26.35, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
With a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 7.25, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
87.60% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.19, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.25 |
4.2 Price Multiples
GES's Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 84.30% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is a bit cheaper when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 72.73% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 17.48 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.33 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GES has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.43
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-0.93%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 10.53%, which is a nice return.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 5.21. GES pays more dividend than 97.52% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, GES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.53% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES is nicely growing with an annual growth rate of 43.88%!
GES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
250.59% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of GES has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP250.59%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-0.93%
11.96
+0.56 (+4.91%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners65.63%
Inst Owner Change-4.46%
Ins Owners31.84%
Ins Owner Change41.19%
Market Cap622.04M
Analysts74.29
Price Target16.32 (36.45%)
Short Float %20.25%
Short Ratio5.29
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 10.53% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP250.59%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)1
Avg EPS beat(2)-1.89%
Min EPS beat(2)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(2)6.44%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)6.42%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)32.75%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)23.4%
EPS beat(12)6
Avg EPS beat(12)14.53%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)28.03%
Revenue beat(2)1
Avg Revenue beat(2)-0.24%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.22%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.99%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.82%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.27%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.07%
PT rev (1m)2.13%
PT rev (3m)-8.57%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-11.29%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-193.62%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-35.04%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0.12%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.34%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0.41%
Revenue NY rev (3m)1.22%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.64 | ||
| Fwd PE | 7.25 | ||
| P/S | 0.17 | ||
| P/FCF | 17.48 | ||
| P/OCF | 5.11 | ||
| P/B | 1.23 | ||
| P/tB | 1.32 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.33 |
EPS(TTM)1.8
EY15.05%
EPS(NY)1.65
Fwd EY13.79%
FCF(TTM)0.68
FCFY5.72%
OCF(TTM)2.34
OCFY19.56%
SpS68.97
BVpS9.71
TBVpS9.07
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.43
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 2.66% | ||
| ROE | 14.59% | ||
| ROCE | 7.63% | ||
| ROIC | 6.76% | ||
| ROICexc | 7.48% | ||
| ROICexgc | 7.63% | ||
| OM | 4.11% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 2.05% | ||
| GM | 43.18% | ||
| FCFM | 0.99% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.3
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.96 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 14.84 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.26 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.24% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.4% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.49 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 56.39% | ||
| Profit Quality | 48.31% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.83 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.46 |
F-Score5
WACC4.95%
ROIC/WACC1.36
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.98%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-62.96%
EPS Next Y-24.98%
EPS Next 2Y-8.49%
EPS Next 3Y-0.93%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%9.44%
Revenue Next Year5.03%
Revenue Next 2Y4.12%
Revenue Next 3Y3.52%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-45.04%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year22.2%
EBIT Next 3Y10.87%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-86.11%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-63.17%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%