GUESS? INC (GES)
US4016171054 - Common Stock
Taking everything into account, GES scores 7 out of 10 in our fundamental rating. GES was compared to 126 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. While GES belongs to the best of the industry regarding profitability, there are some minor concerns on its financial health. GES may be a bit undervalued, certainly considering the very reasonable score on growth GES also has an excellent dividend rating. These ratings would make GES suitable for value and dividend investing!
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GES had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
Each year in the past 5 years GES had a positive operating cash flow.
1.2 Ratios
With a decent Return On Assets value of 8.32%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 76.98% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Return On Equity of 31.47%. This is amongst the best in the industry. GES outperforms 84.13% of its industry peers.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 12.75%, GES belongs to the top of the industry, outperforming 80.16% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GES is in line with the industry average of 13.99%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.32% | ||
| ROE | 31.47% | ||
| ROIC | 12.75% |
ROA(3y)7.09%
ROA(5y)4.38%
ROE(3y)29.12%
ROE(5y)17.45%
ROIC(3y)13.67%
ROIC(5y)9.81%
1.3 Margins
GES has a better Profit Margin (7.76%) than 84.13% of its industry peers.
GES's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
GES's Operating Margin of 9.67% is amongst the best of the industry. GES outperforms 81.75% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Operating Margin of GES has grown nicely.
GES's Gross Margin of 44.03% is fine compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 71.43% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 9.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.76% | ||
| GM | 44.03% |
OM growth 3Y119.75%
OM growth 5Y19.33%
PM growth 3YN/A
PM growth 5Y72.4%
GM growth 3Y5.83%
GM growth 5Y4.11%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, GES has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
GES has a better debt/assets ratio than last year.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.83 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GES has a Altman-Z score of 2.83. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 62.70% of its industry peers.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 1.77. This is a very positive value and a sign of high solvency as it would only need 1.77 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GES has a Debt to FCF ratio of 1.77. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 72.22% of its industry peers.
GES has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.53. This is a neutral value indicating GES is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
GES has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.53. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GES outperforms 50.00% of its industry peers.
Although GES does not score too well on debt/equity it has very limited outstanding debt, which is well covered by the FCF. We will not put too much weight on the debt/equity number as it may be because of low equity, which could be a consequence of a share buyback program for instance. This needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 1.77 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.83 |
ROIC/WACC1.48
WACC8.59%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.55 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GES (1.55) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.55. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a better Quick ratio (0.96) than 65.08% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GES shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has been growing by 12.10%, which is quite good.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a very strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 26.83% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 3.32% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 1.25% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.1%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y26.83%
EPS growth Q2Q15.52%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.32%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y1.25%
Revenue growth Q2Q8.96%
3.2 Future
GES is expected to show a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will grow by 4.41% yearly.
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue will grow by 7.26% on average per year.
EPS Next Y-8.46%
EPS Next 2Y0.07%
EPS Next 3Y4.41%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year13.87%
Revenue Next 2Y9.12%
Revenue Next 3Y7.26%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
The Revenue growth rate is accelerating: in the next years the growth will be better than in the last years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 8.50, which indicates a very decent valuation of GES.
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 92.06% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES is valuated cheaply when we compare the Price/Earnings ratio to 24.67, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.29, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
GES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 86.51% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 21.02.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.29 |
4.2 Price Multiples
89.68% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
GES's Price/Free Cash Flow ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. GES is cheaper than 92.06% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 5.56 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The excellent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.32
EPS Next 2Y0.07%
EPS Next 3Y4.41%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
GES has a Yearly Dividend Yield of 4.67%, which is a nice return.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 3.49. GES pays more dividend than 95.24% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 2.40, GES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.67% |
5.2 History
The dividend of GES has a limited annual growth rate of 5.24%.
GES has been paying a dividend for at least 10 years, so it has a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)5.24%
Div Incr Years3
Div Non Decr Years3
5.3 Sustainability
GES pays out 29.13% of its income as dividend. This is a sustainable payout ratio.
The dividend of GES is growing, but the earnings are growing slower. This means the dividend growth is not sustainable.
DP29.13%
EPS Next 2Y0.07%
EPS Next 3Y4.41%
GUESS? INC
NYSE:GES (4/30/2024, 7:04:00 PM)
After market: 26.78 0 (0%)26.78
-0.02 (-0.07%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners
Inst Owner Change
Ins Owners
Ins Owner Change
Market Cap1.42B
Analysts
Price Target
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.67% |
Dividend Growth(5Y)
DP
Div Incr Years
Div Non Decr Years
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)
Avg EPS beat(2)
Min EPS beat(2)
Max EPS beat(2)
EPS beat(4)
Avg EPS beat(4)
Min EPS beat(4)
Max EPS beat(4)
EPS beat(8)
Avg EPS beat(8)
EPS beat(12)
Avg EPS beat(12)
EPS beat(16)
Avg EPS beat(16)
Revenue beat(2)
Avg Revenue beat(2)
Min Revenue beat(2)
Max Revenue beat(2)
Revenue beat(4)
Avg Revenue beat(4)
Min Revenue beat(4)
Max Revenue beat(4)
Revenue beat(8)
Avg Revenue beat(8)
Revenue beat(12)
Avg Revenue beat(12)
Revenue beat(16)
Avg Revenue beat(16)
PT rev (1m)
PT rev (3m)
EPS NQ rev (1m)
EPS NQ rev (3m)
EPS NY rev (1m)
EPS NY rev (3m)
Revenue NQ rev (1m)
Revenue NQ rev (3m)
Revenue NY rev (1m)
Revenue NY rev (3m)
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.5 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.29 | ||
| P/S | |||
| P/FCF | |||
| P/OCF | |||
| P/B | |||
| P/tB | |||
| EV/EBITDA |
EPS(TTM)
EY
EPS(NY)
Fwd EY
FCF(TTM)
FCFY
OCF(TTM)
OCFY
SpS
BVpS
TBVpS
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.32
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 8.32% | ||
| ROE | 31.47% | ||
| ROCE | |||
| ROIC | |||
| ROICexc | |||
| ROICexgc | |||
| OM | 9.67% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 7.76% | ||
| GM | 44.03% | ||
| FCFM |
ROA(3y)
ROA(5y)
ROE(3y)
ROE(5y)
ROIC(3y)
ROIC(5y)
ROICexc(3y)
ROICexc(5y)
ROICexgc(3y)
ROICexgc(5y)
ROCE(3y)
ROCE(5y)
ROICexcg growth 3Y
ROICexcg growth 5Y
ROICexc growth 3Y
ROICexc growth 5Y
OM growth 3Y
OM growth 5Y
PM growth 3Y
PM growth 5Y
GM growth 3Y
GM growth 5Y
F-Score
Asset Turnover1.07
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | |||
| Debt/EBITDA | |||
| Cap/Depr | |||
| Cap/Sales | |||
| Interest Coverage | |||
| Cash Conversion | |||
| Profit Quality | |||
| Current Ratio | 1.55 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.96 | ||
| Altman-Z |
F-Score
WACC
ROIC/WACC
Cap/Depr(3y)
Cap/Depr(5y)
Cap/Sales(3y)
Cap/Sales(5y)
Profit Quality(3y)
Profit Quality(5y)
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)12.1%
EPS 3YN/A
EPS 5Y
EPS growth Q2Q
EPS Next Y-8.46%
EPS Next 2Y
EPS Next 3Y
EPS Next 5Y
Revenue 1Y (TTM)3.32%
Revenue growth 3Y13.95%
Revenue growth 5Y
Revenue growth Q2Q
Revenue Next Year
Revenue Next 2Y
Revenue Next 3Y
Revenue Next 5Y
EBIT growth 1Y
EBIT growth 3Y
EBIT growth 5Y
EBIT Next Year
EBIT Next 3Y
EBIT Next 5Y
FCF growth 1Y
FCF growth 3Y
FCF growth 5Y
OCF growth 1Y
OCF growth 3Y
OCF growth 5Y