GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:GES - US4016171054 - Common Stock
16.78 USD
-0.02 (-0.12%)
16.73 USD
-0.05 (-0.3%)
GES gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 122 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has an average financial health and profitability rating. GES is valued correctly, but it does not seem to be growing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
GES had positive earnings in the past year.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
Of the past 5 years GES 4 years were profitable.
GES had a positive operating cash flow in each of the past 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
With a Return On Assets value of 0.55%, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 51.64% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Return On Equity (3.35%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
Looking at the Return On Invested Capital, with a value of 5.89%, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 59.84% of the companies in the same industry.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for GES is in line with the industry average of 12.14%.
The 3 year average ROIC (11.49%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(5.89%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.55% | ||
| ROE | 3.35% | ||
| ROIC | 5.89% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
With a Profit Margin value of 0.53%, GES perfoms like the industry average, outperforming 51.64% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
GES has a Operating Margin of 4.53%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 64.75% of its industry peers.
GES's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GES has a Gross Margin of 42.70%. This is in the better half of the industry: GES outperforms 63.93% of its industry peers.
GES's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 4.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.53% | ||
| GM | 42.7% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
The number of shares outstanding for GES has been reduced compared to 1 year ago.
Compared to 5 years ago, GES has less shares outstanding
Compared to 1 year ago, GES has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
GES has an Altman-Z score of 2.17. This is not the best score and indicates that GES is in the grey zone with still only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
GES has a Altman-Z score (2.17) which is in line with its industry peers.
GES has a debt to FCF ratio of 49.11. This is a negative value and a sign of low solvency as GES would need 49.11 years to pay back of all of its debts.
GES's Debt to FCF ratio of 49.11 is in line compared to the rest of the industry. GES outperforms 43.44% of its industry peers.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.22 is on the high side and indicates that GES has dependencies on debt financing.
Looking at the Debt to Equity ratio, with a value of 1.22, GES is in line with its industry, outperforming 40.16% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.22 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 49.11 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.17 |
ROIC/WACC1.06
WACC5.55%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.52 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Current ratio value of 1.52, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 62.30% of the companies in the same industry.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.52. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
GES has a better Quick ratio (0.76) than 63.93% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GES shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -34.00%.
Measured over the past 5 years, GES shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS has been growing by 4.64% on average per year.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.88% in the past year.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%2.94%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%7.16%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, GES will show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will decrease by -0.01% on average per year.
GES is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 5.07% yearly.
EPS Next Y-16.94%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year8.8%
Revenue Next 2Y6.41%
Revenue Next 3Y5.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
With a Price/Earnings ratio of 10.17, the valuation of GES can be described as very reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GES indicates a rather cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 86.07% of the companies listed in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of GES to the average of the S&P500 Index (27.19), we can say GES is valued rather cheaply.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 9.80, the valuation of GES can be described as reasonable.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of GES indicates a rather cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 86.89% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 23.88.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 |
4.2 Price Multiples
77.87% of the companies in the same industry are more expensive than GES, based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio of GES is on the same level as its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 68.9 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.24 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The decent profitability rating of GES may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 5.37%, GES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the industry average which is at 2.20. GES pays more dividend than 90.16% of the companies in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Dividend Yield of 1.94, GES pays a better dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.37% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of GES grows each year by 43.88%, which is quite nice.
GES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
393.60% of the earnings are spent on dividend by GES. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
GES's earnings are declining while the Dividend Rate has been growing. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP393.6%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
16.78
-0.02 (-0.12%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners57.77%
Inst Owner Change0%
Ins Owners31.89%
Ins Owner Change0%
Market Cap875.08M
Revenue(TTM)3.00B
Net Income(TTM)16.32M
Analysts46.67
Price Target17.09 (1.85%)
Short Float %12.28%
Short Ratio7.58
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 5.37% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP393.6%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)48.88%
Min EPS beat(2)36.86%
Max EPS beat(2)60.89%
EPS beat(4)3
Avg EPS beat(4)23.49%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)60.89%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)16.26%
EPS beat(12)8
Avg EPS beat(12)24.73%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)18.99%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.09%
Min Revenue beat(2)0.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.59%
Revenue beat(4)3
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.42%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.56%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.32%
Revenue beat(16)12
Avg Revenue beat(16)1.24%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)0%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)0%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)5.88%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)0.93%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10.17 | ||
| Fwd PE | 9.8 | ||
| P/S | 0.28 | ||
| P/FCF | 68.9 | ||
| P/OCF | 8.65 | ||
| P/B | 1.79 | ||
| P/tB | 1.94 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 6.24 |
EPS(TTM)1.65
EY9.83%
EPS(NY)1.71
Fwd EY10.2%
FCF(TTM)0.24
FCFY1.45%
OCF(TTM)1.94
OCFY11.56%
SpS59.28
BVpS9.35
TBVpS8.66
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)2.19
Graham Number18.63
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.55% | ||
| ROE | 3.35% | ||
| ROCE | 6.65% | ||
| ROIC | 5.89% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.47% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.6% | ||
| OM | 4.53% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.53% | ||
| GM | 42.7% | ||
| FCFM | 0.41% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexgc growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexgc growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score5
Asset Turnover1.04
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.22 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 49.11 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.84 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 126.32% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.86% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 5.47 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 48.19% | ||
| Profit Quality | 77.81% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.52 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.17 |
F-Score5
WACC5.55%
ROIC/WACC1.06
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-34%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%2.94%
EPS Next Y-16.94%
EPS Next 2Y-6.78%
EPS Next 3Y-0.01%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.88%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%7.16%
Revenue Next Year8.8%
Revenue Next 2Y6.41%
Revenue Next 3Y5.07%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-36.61%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year26.43%
EBIT Next 3Y11.08%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-91.05%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-52.93%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%
GUESS? INC / GES FAQ
What is the ChartMill fundamental rating of GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 5 / 10 to GES.
What is the valuation status for GES stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 6 / 10 to GUESS? INC (GES). This can be considered as Fairly Valued.
How profitable is GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
GUESS? INC (GES) has a profitability rating of 6 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for GUESS? INC (GES) is 10.17 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 1.79.
What is the expected EPS growth for GUESS? INC (GES) stock?
The Earnings per Share (EPS) of GUESS? INC (GES) is expected to decline by -16.94% in the next year.