GUESS? INC (GES) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:GES - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US4016171054 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
We assign a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10 to GES. GES was compared to 123 industry peers in the Specialty Retail industry. GES has only an average score on both its financial health and profitability. GES is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year GES was profitable.
In the past year GES had a positive cash flow from operations.
GES had positive earnings in 4 of the past 5 years.
In the past 5 years GES always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
GES has a Return On Assets (0.68%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
The Return On Equity of GES (4.06%) is better than 63.41% of its industry peers.
GES has a better Return On Invested Capital (5.88%) than 60.16% of its industry peers.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for GES is in line with the industry average of 12.08%.
The 3 year average ROIC (11.49%) for GES is well above the current ROIC(5.88%). The reason for the recent decline needs to be investigated.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.68% | ||
| ROE | 4.06% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
1.3 Margins
GES has a Profit Margin (0.54%) which is comparable to the rest of the industry.
GES's Profit Margin has declined in the last couple of years.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 3.80%, GES is doing good in the industry, outperforming 60.98% of the companies in the same industry.
GES's Operating Margin has been stable in the last couple of years.
GES has a better Gross Margin (42.81%) than 65.85% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of GES has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 3.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.54% | ||
| GM | 42.81% |
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), GES is creating value.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 1 year ago.
GES has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, GES has a worse debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
An Altman-Z score of 2.40 indicates that GES is not a great score, but indicates only limited risk for bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of GES (2.40) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
A Debt/Equity ratio of 1.20 is on the high side and indicates that GES has dependencies on debt financing.
GES has a Debt to Equity ratio of 1.20. This is comparable to the rest of the industry: GES outperforms 40.65% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.2 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.4 |
ROIC/WACC1.18
WACC4.97%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.57 indicates that GES should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
The Current ratio of GES (1.57) is better than 69.11% of its industry peers.
GES has a Quick Ratio of 1.57. This is a bad value and indicates that GES is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of GES (0.76) is better than 66.67% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
GES shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -38.98%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing slightly by 4.64% on average over the past years.
Looking at the last year, GES shows a very strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has grown by 30.17%.
Measured over the past years, GES shows a small growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 2.26% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.98%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-62.96%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)30.17%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%9.44%
3.2 Future
GES is expected to show a decrease in Earnings Per Share. In the coming years, the EPS will decrease by -0.87% yearly.
GES is expected to show a small growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 4.24% yearly.
EPS Next Y-25.66%
EPS Next 2Y-7.65%
EPS Next 3Y-0.87%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year7.17%
Revenue Next 2Y5.17%
Revenue Next 3Y4.24%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
When comparing the EPS growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is decreasing.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is accelerating.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
Based on the Price/Earnings ratio of 7.53, the valuation of GES can be described as very cheap.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of GES indicates a rather cheap valuation: GES is cheaper than 93.50% of the companies listed in the same industry.
Compared to an average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio of 26.99, GES is valued rather cheaply.
GES is valuated reasonably with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 8.07.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 89.43% of the companies are valued more expensively.
GES's Price/Forward Earnings ratio indicates a rather cheap valuation when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 36.36.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.07 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, GES is valued cheaply inside the industry as 80.49% of the companies are valued more expensively.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.61 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
GES has a very decent profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.62
EPS Next 2Y-7.65%
EPS Next 3Y-0.87%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
With a Yearly Dividend Yield of 9.23%, GES is a good candidate for dividend investing.
Compared to an average industry Dividend Yield of 5.01, GES pays a better dividend. On top of this GES pays more dividend than 97.56% of the companies listed in the same industry.
GES's Dividend Yield is rather good when compared to the S&P500 average which is at 2.40.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.23% |
5.2 History
On average, the dividend of GES grows each year by 43.88%, which is quite nice.
GES has paid a dividend for at least 10 years, which is a reliable track record.
GES has not decreased its dividend in the last 3 years.
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
5.3 Sustainability
GES pays out 331.39% of its income as dividend. This is not a sustainable payout ratio.
The Dividend Rate of GES has been growing, while earnings will be declining. This means the dividend growth is most likely not sustainable.
DP331.39%
EPS Next 2Y-7.65%
EPS Next 3Y-0.87%
13.55
+0.6 (+4.63%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
GICS IndustrySpecialty Retail
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners65.63%
Inst Owner Change-2.52%
Ins Owners31.84%
Ins Owner Change7.73%
Market Cap704.87M
Analysts74.29
Price Target16.32 (20.44%)
Short Float %18.05%
Short Ratio7.17
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 9.23% |
Yearly Dividend3.53
Dividend Growth(5Y)43.88%
DP331.39%
Div Incr Years4
Div Non Decr Years4
Ex-Date
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)21.65%
Min EPS beat(2)6.44%
Max EPS beat(2)36.86%
EPS beat(4)2
Avg EPS beat(4)7.45%
Min EPS beat(4)-10.23%
Max EPS beat(4)36.86%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)18.57%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)19.1%
EPS beat(16)9
Avg EPS beat(16)17.42%
Revenue beat(2)2
Avg Revenue beat(2)1.64%
Min Revenue beat(2)1.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)1.68%
Revenue beat(4)2
Avg Revenue beat(4)0.12%
Min Revenue beat(4)-2.17%
Max Revenue beat(4)1.68%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)0.83%
Revenue beat(12)9
Avg Revenue beat(12)1.36%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)0.95%
PT rev (1m)0%
PT rev (3m)2.13%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-47.62%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-0.91%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)0.43%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)2.45%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.53 | ||
| Fwd PE | 8.07 | ||
| P/S | 0.19 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | 9.9 | ||
| P/B | 1.46 | ||
| P/tB | 1.57 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 5.61 |
EPS(TTM)1.8
EY13.28%
EPS(NY)1.68
Fwd EY12.4%
FCF(TTM)-0.3
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)1.37
OCFY10.1%
SpS70.03
BVpS9.3
TBVpS8.62
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)1.62
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 0.68% | ||
| ROE | 4.06% | ||
| ROCE | 6.64% | ||
| ROIC | 5.88% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.34% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.46% | ||
| OM | 3.8% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 0.54% | ||
| GM | 42.81% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)5.51%
ROA(5y)3.97%
ROE(3y)23.53%
ROE(5y)16.57%
ROIC(3y)11.49%
ROIC(5y)10.21%
ROICexc(3y)13.77%
ROICexc(5y)12.63%
ROICexgc(3y)14.09%
ROICexgc(5y)12.95%
ROCE(3y)12.97%
ROCE(5y)11.52%
ROICexcg growth 3Y-25.98%
ROICexcg growth 5Y-1.08%
ROICexc growth 3Y-25.79%
ROICexc growth 5Y-1%
OM growth 3Y-22.39%
OM growth 5Y-0.26%
PM growth 3Y-35.42%
PM growth 5Y-13.09%
GM growth 3Y-1.27%
GM growth 5Y2.75%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 1.2 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 2.78 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 124.78% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 2.39% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 4.86 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 34.24% | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.57 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.76 | ||
| Altman-Z | 2.4 |
F-Score7
WACC4.97%
ROIC/WACC1.18
Cap/Depr(3y)130.91%
Cap/Depr(5y)106.86%
Cap/Sales(3y)2.96%
Cap/Sales(5y)2.47%
Profit Quality(3y)79.46%
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-38.98%
EPS 3Y-12.39%
EPS 5Y4.64%
EPS Q2Q%-62.96%
EPS Next Y-25.66%
EPS Next 2Y-7.65%
EPS Next 3Y-0.87%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)30.17%
Revenue growth 3Y4.94%
Revenue growth 5Y2.26%
Sales Q2Q%9.44%
Revenue Next Year7.17%
Revenue Next 2Y5.17%
Revenue Next 3Y4.24%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-44.43%
EBIT growth 3Y-18.55%
EBIT growth 5Y2%
EBIT Next Year22.2%
EBIT Next 3Y10.05%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-111.81%
FCF growth 3Y-19.45%
FCF growth 5Y-23.52%
OCF growth 1Y-66.28%
OCF growth 3Y-2.58%
OCF growth 5Y-9.27%