FORESTAR GROUP INC (FOR) Stock Fundamental Analysis
NYSE:FOR - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US3462321015 - Common Stock - Currency: USD
FOR gets a fundamental rating of 5 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 65 industry peers in the Real Estate Management & Development industry. While FOR has a great profitability rating, there are quite some concerns on its financial health. FOR is not valued too expensively and it also shows a decent growth rate.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
FOR had positive earnings in the past year.
In the past year FOR has reported a negative cash flow from operations.
Each year in the past 5 years FOR has been profitable.
In multiple years FOR reported negative operating cash flow during the last 5 years.
1.2 Ratios
The Return On Assets of FOR (5.53%) is better than 95.38% of its industry peers.
FOR has a better Return On Equity (10.24%) than 87.69% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Invested Capital value of 6.00%, FOR belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 86.15% of the companies in the same industry.
The Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years for FOR is above the industry average of 5.60%.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.53% | ||
| ROE | 10.24% | ||
| ROIC | 6% |
ROA(3y)7.18%
ROA(5y)6.06%
ROE(3y)13.29%
ROE(5y)11.54%
ROIC(3y)8.23%
ROIC(5y)7.03%
1.3 Margins
FOR has a Profit Margin of 11.45%. This is amongst the best in the industry. FOR outperforms 84.62% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of FOR has grown nicely.
FOR's Operating Margin of 14.12% is amongst the best of the industry. FOR outperforms 83.08% of its industry peers.
FOR's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Looking at the Gross Margin, with a value of 23.34%, FOR is in line with its industry, outperforming 46.15% of the companies in the same industry.
In the last couple of years the Gross Margin of FOR has grown nicely.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 14.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.45% | ||
| GM | 23.34% |
OM growth 3Y10.19%
OM growth 5Y13.62%
PM growth 3Y17.48%
PM growth 5Y11.83%
GM growth 3Y11.67%
GM growth 5Y9.47%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) just above the Cost of Capital (WACC), FOR is creating some value.
Compared to 1 year ago, FOR has more shares outstanding
FOR has more shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
Compared to 1 year ago, FOR has an improved debt to assets ratio.
2.2 Solvency
Based on the Altman-Z score of 1.49, we must say that FOR is in the distress zone and has some risk of bankruptcy.
FOR has a Altman-Z score (1.49) which is in line with its industry peers.
FOR has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.53. This is a neutral value indicating FOR is somewhat dependend on debt financing.
The Debt to Equity ratio of FOR (0.53) is comparable to the rest of the industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.49 |
ROIC/WACC0.81
WACC7.44%
2.3 Liquidity
FOR has a Current Ratio of 0.51. This is a bad value and indicates that FOR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
FOR has a Current ratio of 0.51. This is amonst the worse of the industry: FOR underperforms 86.15% of its industry peers.
FOR has a Quick Ratio of 0.51. This is a bad value and indicates that FOR is not financially healthy enough and could expect problems in meeting its short term obligations.
The Quick ratio of FOR (0.51) is worse than 81.54% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.51 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
FOR shows a strong negative growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year the EPS decreased by -19.35%.
The Earnings Per Share has been growing by 30.52% on average over the past years. This is a very strong growth
FOR shows a decrease in Revenue. In the last year, the revenue decreased by -5.60%.
FOR shows a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 28.65% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)-19.35%
EPS 3Y16.53%
EPS 5Y30.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.09%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.6%
Revenue growth 3Y4.42%
Revenue growth 5Y28.65%
Sales Q2Q%5.15%
3.2 Future
The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 6.42% on average over the next years.
FOR is expected to show quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the coming years, the Revenue will grow by 10.10% yearly.
EPS Next Y-22.33%
EPS Next 2Y-7.28%
EPS Next 3Y6.42%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue Next Year6.3%
Revenue Next 2Y7.57%
Revenue Next 3Y10.1%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
3.3 Evolution
The EPS growth rate is decreasing: in the next years the growth will be less than in the last years.
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
A Price/Earnings ratio of 6.25 indicates a rather cheap valuation of FOR.
FOR's Price/Earnings ratio is rather cheap when compared to the industry. FOR is cheaper than 96.92% of the companies in the same industry.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of FOR to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.91), we can say FOR is valued rather cheaply.
A Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 5.99 indicates a rather cheap valuation of FOR.
Based on the Price/Forward Earnings ratio, FOR is valued cheaply inside the industry as 100.00% of the companies are valued more expensively.
When comparing the Price/Forward Earnings ratio of FOR to the average of the S&P500 Index (21.46), we can say FOR is valued rather cheaply.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.99 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio of FOR indicates a rather cheap valuation: FOR is cheaper than 90.77% of the companies listed in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.19 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
FOR has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.2
EPS Next 2Y-7.28%
EPS Next 3Y6.42%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
No dividends for FOR!.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
20.3
+0.3 (+1.5%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorReal Estate
GICS IndustryGroupEquity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
GICS IndustryReal Estate Management & Development
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners36.36%
Inst Owner Change-1.05%
Ins Owners0.49%
Ins Owner Change2.92%
Market Cap1.03B
Analysts85
Price Target28.56 (40.69%)
Short Float %3.95%
Short Ratio3.8
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)0
Avg EPS beat(2)-37.35%
Min EPS beat(2)-54.74%
Max EPS beat(2)-19.97%
EPS beat(4)1
Avg EPS beat(4)-19.08%
Min EPS beat(4)-54.74%
Max EPS beat(4)21.02%
EPS beat(8)5
Avg EPS beat(8)14.31%
EPS beat(12)7
Avg EPS beat(12)20.62%
EPS beat(16)11
Avg EPS beat(16)22.86%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-16.52%
Min Revenue beat(2)-24.59%
Max Revenue beat(2)-8.45%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-10.38%
Min Revenue beat(4)-24.59%
Max Revenue beat(4)8.37%
Revenue beat(8)5
Avg Revenue beat(8)4.31%
Revenue beat(12)7
Avg Revenue beat(12)4.44%
Revenue beat(16)11
Avg Revenue beat(16)4.84%
PT rev (1m)-4.55%
PT rev (3m)-18.45%
EPS NQ rev (1m)0%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-13.87%
EPS NY rev (1m)0%
EPS NY rev (3m)-14.97%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)0%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-3.33%
Revenue NY rev (1m)0%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-5.82%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 6.25 | ||
| Fwd PE | 5.99 | ||
| P/S | 0.7 | ||
| P/FCF | N/A | ||
| P/OCF | N/A | ||
| P/B | 0.63 | ||
| P/tB | 0.63 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 8.19 |
EPS(TTM)3.25
EY16.01%
EPS(NY)3.39
Fwd EY16.68%
FCF(TTM)-8.15
FCFYN/A
OCF(TTM)-8.11
OCFYN/A
SpS28.95
BVpS32.37
TBVpS32.37
PEG (NY)N/A
PEG (5Y)0.2
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 5.53% | ||
| ROE | 10.24% | ||
| ROCE | 7.97% | ||
| ROIC | 6% | ||
| ROICexc | 6.43% | ||
| ROICexgc | 6.54% | ||
| OM | 14.12% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 11.45% | ||
| GM | 23.34% | ||
| FCFM | N/A |
ROA(3y)7.18%
ROA(5y)6.06%
ROE(3y)13.29%
ROE(5y)11.54%
ROIC(3y)8.23%
ROIC(5y)7.03%
ROICexc(3y)10.43%
ROICexc(5y)8.72%
ROICexgc(3y)10.52%
ROICexgc(5y)8.8%
ROCE(3y)10.93%
ROCE(5y)9.33%
ROICexcg growth 3Y8.89%
ROICexcg growth 5Y25.99%
ROICexc growth 3Y8.76%
ROICexc growth 5Y25.91%
OM growth 3Y10.19%
OM growth 5Y13.62%
PM growth 3Y17.48%
PM growth 5Y11.83%
GM growth 3Y11.67%
GM growth 5Y9.47%
F-Score2
Asset Turnover0.48
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0.53 | ||
| Debt/FCF | N/A | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 4.13 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 61.76% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 0.14% | ||
| Interest Coverage | N/A | ||
| Cash Conversion | N/A | ||
| Profit Quality | N/A | ||
| Current Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 0.51 | ||
| Altman-Z | 1.49 |
F-Score2
WACC7.44%
ROIC/WACC0.81
Cap/Depr(3y)82.1%
Cap/Depr(5y)63.56%
Cap/Sales(3y)0.16%
Cap/Sales(5y)0.13%
Profit Quality(3y)N/A
Profit Quality(5y)N/A
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)-19.35%
EPS 3Y16.53%
EPS 5Y30.52%
EPS Q2Q%-28.09%
EPS Next Y-22.33%
EPS Next 2Y-7.28%
EPS Next 3Y6.42%
EPS Next 5YN/A
Revenue 1Y (TTM)-5.6%
Revenue growth 3Y4.42%
Revenue growth 5Y28.65%
Sales Q2Q%5.15%
Revenue Next Year6.3%
Revenue Next 2Y7.57%
Revenue Next 3Y10.1%
Revenue Next 5YN/A
EBIT growth 1Y-15.94%
EBIT growth 3Y15.05%
EBIT growth 5Y46.17%
EBIT Next Year-9.49%
EBIT Next 3Y12.12%
EBIT Next 5YN/A
FCF growth 1Y-895.39%
FCF growth 3YN/A
FCF growth 5YN/A
OCF growth 1Y-872.1%
OCF growth 3YN/A
OCF growth 5YN/A