CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Fundamental Analysis
USA - New York Stock Exchange - NYSE:CMG - US1696561059 - Common Stock
35.94 USD
-0.2 (-0.55%)
35.86 USD
-0.08 (-0.22%)
We assign a fundamental rating of 7 out of 10 to CMG. CMG was compared to 132 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CMG gets an excellent profitability rating and is at the same time showing great financial health properties. CMG is quite expensive at the moment. It does show a decent growth rate. These ratings could make CMG a good candidate for quality investing.
1. Profitability
1.1 Basic Checks
In the past year CMG was profitable.
CMG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years CMG has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years CMG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
1.2 Ratios
CMG has a better Return On Assets (16.55%) than 93.94% of its industry peers.
With an excellent Return On Equity value of 47.69%, CMG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.15% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG has a better Return On Invested Capital (18.25%) than 90.91% of its industry peers.
CMG had an Average Return On Invested Capital over the past 3 years of 16.89%. This is significantly above the industry average of 10.42%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (18.25%) for CMG is above the 3 year average (16.89%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.55% | ||
| ROE | 47.69% | ||
| ROIC | 18.25% |
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
1.3 Margins
CMG has a better Profit Margin (13.04%) than 82.58% of its industry peers.
CMG's Profit Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CMG has a Operating Margin of 16.55%. This is in the better half of the industry: CMG outperforms 74.24% of its industry peers.
CMG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CMG's Gross Margin of 30.89% is on the low side compared to the rest of the industry. CMG is outperformed by 75.76% of its industry peers.
CMG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| OM | 16.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.04% | ||
| GM | 30.89% |
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
2. Health
2.1 Basic Checks
With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CMG is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CMG has less shares outstanding
CMG has less shares outstanding than it did 5 years ago.
CMG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
2.2 Solvency
CMG has an Altman-Z score of 6.93. This indicates that CMG is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
With an excellent Altman-Z score value of 6.93, CMG belongs to the best of the industry, outperforming 90.15% of the companies in the same industry.
There is no outstanding debt for CMG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.93 |
ROIC/WACC2.07
WACC8.83%
2.3 Liquidity
A Current Ratio of 1.54 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
CMG has a Current ratio of 1.54. This is in the better half of the industry: CMG outperforms 73.48% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.50 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
CMG has a Quick ratio of 1.50. This is in the better half of the industry: CMG outperforms 76.52% of its industry peers.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.5 |
3. Growth
3.1 Past
CMG shows a small growth in Earnings Per Share. In the last year, the EPS has grown by 6.95%.
CMG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 31.99% yearly.
The Revenue has been growing slightly by 7.31% in the past year.
CMG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. Measured over the last years, the Revenue has been growing by 15.16% yearly.
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.95%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%7.41%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.31%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%7.51%
3.2 Future
Based on estimates for the next years, CMG will show a quite strong growth in Earnings Per Share. The EPS will grow by 12.98% on average per year.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 10.73% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y3.81%
EPS Next 2Y4.38%
EPS Next 3Y8.79%
EPS Next 5Y12.98%
Revenue Next Year5.2%
Revenue Next 2Y7.46%
Revenue Next 3Y8.73%
Revenue Next 5Y10.73%
3.3 Evolution
The estimated forward EPS growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
The estimated forward Revenue growth is still strong, although it is decreasing when compared to the stronger growth in the past years.
4. Valuation
4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio
The Price/Earnings ratio is 30.98, which means the current valuation is very expensive for CMG.
CMG's Price/Earnings ratio is in line with the industry average.
When comparing the Price/Earnings ratio of CMG to the average of the S&P500 Index (26.55), we can say CMG is valued inline with the index average.
The Price/Forward Earnings ratio is 29.26, which means the current valuation is very expensive for CMG.
CMG's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
CMG is valuated rather expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 23.78, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.26 |
4.2 Price Multiples
Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CMG is valued a bit more expensive than 68.94% of the companies in the same industry.
Based on the Price/Free Cash Flow ratio, CMG is valued a bit cheaper than 62.12% of the companies in the same industry.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 30.21 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.82 |
4.3 Compensation for Growth
The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates an expensive valuation of the company.
The excellent profitability rating of CMG may justify a higher PE ratio.
PEG (NY)8.14
PEG (5Y)0.97
EPS Next 2Y4.38%
EPS Next 3Y8.79%
5. Dividend
5.1 Amount
CMG does not give a dividend.
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
35.94
-0.2 (-0.55%)
Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)
Earnings (Next)
Inst Owners90.34%
Inst Owner Change1.78%
Ins Owners0.32%
Ins Owner Change-22.64%
Market Cap47.52B
Revenue(TTM)11.79B
Net Income(TTM)1.54B
Analysts79.51
Price Target45.66 (27.05%)
Short Float %2.34%
Short Ratio1.32
Dividend
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0% |
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)0.32%
Min EPS beat(2)0.31%
Max EPS beat(2)0.33%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)0.95%
Min EPS beat(4)0.31%
Max EPS beat(4)2.13%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)4.32%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)4.3%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)3.8%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.11%
Min Revenue beat(2)-2.53%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.69%
Revenue beat(4)0
Avg Revenue beat(4)-2.19%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)-1.07%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.29%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.31%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.3%
PT rev (1m)-16.88%
PT rev (3m)-23.36%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-0.14%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-17.77%
EPS NY rev (1m)-0.44%
EPS NY rev (3m)-4.75%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-0.17%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.5%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-0.43%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-1.93%
Valuation
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30.98 | ||
| Fwd PE | 29.26 | ||
| P/S | 4.03 | ||
| P/FCF | 30.21 | ||
| P/OCF | 21.46 | ||
| P/B | 14.75 | ||
| P/tB | 14.85 | ||
| EV/EBITDA | 19.82 |
EPS(TTM)1.16
EY3.23%
EPS(NY)1.23
Fwd EY3.42%
FCF(TTM)1.19
FCFY3.31%
OCF(TTM)1.68
OCFY4.66%
SpS8.91
BVpS2.44
TBVpS2.42
PEG (NY)8.14
PEG (5Y)0.97
Graham Number7.97
Profitability
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ROA | 16.55% | ||
| ROE | 47.69% | ||
| ROCE | 23.99% | ||
| ROIC | 18.25% | ||
| ROICexc | 22.11% | ||
| ROICexgc | 22.19% | ||
| OM | 16.55% | ||
| PM (TTM) | 13.04% | ||
| GM | 30.89% | ||
| FCFM | 13.35% |
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
ROICexc(3y)20.4%
ROICexc(5y)16.1%
ROICexgc(3y)20.47%
ROICexgc(5y)16.17%
ROCE(3y)22.21%
ROCE(5y)17.46%
ROICexgc growth 3Y18.49%
ROICexgc growth 5Y16.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y16.87%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
| Industry Rank | Sector Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt/Equity | 0 | ||
| Debt/FCF | 0 | ||
| Debt/EBITDA | 0 | ||
| Cap/Depr | 182.03% | ||
| Cap/Sales | 5.44% | ||
| Interest Coverage | 250 | ||
| Cash Conversion | 96.16% | ||
| Profit Quality | 102.38% | ||
| Current Ratio | 1.54 | ||
| Quick Ratio | 1.5 | ||
| Altman-Z | 6.93 |
F-Score7
WACC8.83%
ROIC/WACC2.07
Cap/Depr(3y)173.27%
Cap/Depr(5y)170.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.72%
Profit Quality(3y)97.3%
Profit Quality(5y)100.43%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)6.95%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%7.41%
EPS Next Y3.81%
EPS Next 2Y4.38%
EPS Next 3Y8.79%
EPS Next 5Y12.98%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)7.31%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%7.51%
Revenue Next Year5.2%
Revenue Next 2Y7.46%
Revenue Next 3Y8.73%
Revenue Next 5Y10.73%
EBIT growth 1Y2.84%
EBIT growth 3Y32.8%
EBIT growth 5Y32.3%
EBIT Next Year20.14%
EBIT Next 3Y13.58%
EBIT Next 5Y14.79%
FCF growth 1Y13.4%
FCF growth 3Y21.65%
FCF growth 5Y31.27%
OCF growth 1Y15.38%
OCF growth 3Y17.97%
OCF growth 5Y23.88%
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC / CMG FAQ
Can you provide the ChartMill fundamental rating for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC?
ChartMill assigns a fundamental rating of 7 / 10 to CMG.
What is the valuation status of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?
ChartMill assigns a valuation rating of 3 / 10 to CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG). This can be considered as Overvalued.
How profitable is CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?
CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) has a profitability rating of 9 / 10.
What are the PE and PB ratios of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) stock?
The Price/Earnings (PE) ratio for CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) is 30.98 and the Price/Book (PB) ratio is 14.75.
Can you provide the financial health for CMG stock?
The financial health rating of CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) is 8 / 10.