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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC (CMG) Stock Fundamental Analysis

NYSE:CMG - New York Stock Exchange, Inc. - US1696561059 - Common Stock - Currency: USD

51.47  -0.8 (-1.53%)

After market: 51.58 +0.11 (+0.21%)

Fundamental Rating

6

CMG gets a fundamental rating of 6 out of 10. The analysis compared the fundamentals against 135 industry peers in the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure industry. CMG has outstanding health and profitabily ratings, belonging to the best of the industry. This is a solid base for any company. CMG is valued quite expensive, but it does show an excellent growth. With these ratings, CMG could be worth investigating further for growth and quality investing!.


Dividend Valuation Growth Profitability Health

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8

1. Profitability

1.1 Basic Checks

In the past year CMG was profitable.
CMG had a positive operating cash flow in the past year.
In the past 5 years CMG has always been profitable.
In the past 5 years CMG always reported a positive cash flow from operatings.
CMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFCMG Yearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCFYearly Net Income VS EBIT VS OCF VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B 2B

1.2 Ratios

CMG has a better Return On Assets (17.26%) than 95.56% of its industry peers.
CMG's Return On Equity of 44.73% is amongst the best of the industry. CMG outperforms 91.85% of its industry peers.
CMG's Return On Invested Capital of 18.96% is amongst the best of the industry. CMG outperforms 91.11% of its industry peers.
Measured over the past 3 years, the Average Return On Invested Capital for CMG is above the industry average of 14.12%.
The last Return On Invested Capital (18.96%) for CMG is above the 3 year average (16.89%), which is a sign of increasing profitability.
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 17.26%
ROE 44.73%
ROIC 18.96%
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
CMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICCMG Yearly ROA, ROE, ROICYearly ROA, ROE, ROIC 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30 40

1.3 Margins

CMG's Profit Margin of 13.59% is amongst the best of the industry. CMG outperforms 84.44% of its industry peers.
In the last couple of years the Profit Margin of CMG has grown nicely.
With a decent Operating Margin value of 17.25%, CMG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 73.33% of the companies in the same industry.
CMG's Operating Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
CMG has a worse Gross Margin (31.40%) than 74.81% of its industry peers.
CMG's Gross Margin has improved in the last couple of years.
Industry RankSector Rank
OM 17.25%
PM (TTM) 13.59%
GM 31.4%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
CMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsCMG Yearly Profit, Operating, Gross MarginsYearly Profit, Operating, Gross Margins 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 10 20 30

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8

2. Health

2.1 Basic Checks

With a Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) well above the Cost of Capital (WACC), CMG is creating value.
Compared to 1 year ago, CMG has less shares outstanding
The number of shares outstanding for CMG has been reduced compared to 5 years ago.
There is no outstanding debt for CMG. This means it has a Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratio of 0 and it is amongst the best of the sector and industry.
CMG Yearly Shares OutstandingCMG Yearly Shares OutstandingYearly Shares Outstanding 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B
CMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsCMG Yearly Total Debt VS Total AssetsYearly Total Debt VS Total Assets 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2B 4B 6B 8B

2.2 Solvency

CMG has an Altman-Z score of 9.89. This indicates that CMG is financially healthy and has little risk of bankruptcy at the moment.
The Altman-Z score of CMG (9.89) is better than 95.56% of its industry peers.
CMG has no outstanding debt. Therefor its Debt/Equity and Debt/FCF ratios are 0 and belong to the best of the industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Altman-Z 9.89
ROIC/WACC2.08
WACC9.1%
CMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFCMG Yearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCFYearly LT Debt VS Equity VS FCF 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 1B 2B 3B

2.3 Liquidity

A Current Ratio of 1.52 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
CMG has a Current ratio of 1.52. This is in the better half of the industry: CMG outperforms 76.30% of its industry peers.
A Quick Ratio of 1.48 indicates that CMG should not have too much problems paying its short term obligations.
With a decent Quick ratio value of 1.48, CMG is doing good in the industry, outperforming 77.04% of the companies in the same industry.
Industry RankSector Rank
Current Ratio 1.52
Quick Ratio 1.48
CMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesCMG Yearly Current Assets VS Current LiabilitesYearly Current Assets VS Current Liabilites 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 500M 1B 1.5B

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7

3. Growth

3.1 Past

The Earnings Per Share has grown by an impressive 20.44% over the past year.
CMG shows a strong growth in Earnings Per Share. Measured over the last years, the EPS has been growing by 31.99% yearly.
CMG shows quite a strong growth in Revenue. In the last year, the Revenue has grown by 12.57%.
Measured over the past years, CMG shows a quite strong growth in Revenue. The Revenue has been growing by 15.16% on average per year.
EPS 1Y (TTM)20.44%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%8.45%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.57%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%6.42%

3.2 Future

The Earnings Per Share is expected to grow by 18.61% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
The Revenue is expected to grow by 12.78% on average over the next years. This is quite good.
EPS Next Y8.84%
EPS Next 2Y13.5%
EPS Next 3Y15.25%
EPS Next 5Y18.61%
Revenue Next Year8.17%
Revenue Next 2Y10.41%
Revenue Next 3Y11.07%
Revenue Next 5Y12.78%

3.3 Evolution

Although the future EPS growth is still strong, it is not able to hold up the even more excellent growth rate of the past years.
When comparing the Revenue growth rate of the last years to the growth rate of the upcoming years, we see that the growth is stable.
CMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesCMG Yearly Revenue VS EstimatesYearly Revenue VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 5B 10B 15B 20B 25B
CMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesCMG Yearly EPS VS EstimatesYearly EPS VS Estimates 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 1 2 3 4

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2

4. Valuation

4.1 Price/Earnings Ratio

CMG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Earnings ratio of 44.76.
Compared to the rest of the industry, the Price/Earnings ratio of CMG is on the same level as its industry peers.
The average S&P500 Price/Earnings ratio is at 26.60. CMG is valued rather expensively when compared to this.
CMG is valuated quite expensively with a Price/Forward Earnings ratio of 35.44.
CMG's Price/Forward Earnings is on the same level as the industry average.
CMG is valuated expensively when we compare the Price/Forward Earnings ratio to 22.43, which is the current average of the S&P500 Index.
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 44.76
Fwd PE 35.44
CMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price EarningsCMG Price Earnings VS Forward Price Earnings ChartPrice Earnings - Forward Price Earnings PE FPE 10 20 30 40 50

4.2 Price Multiples

Based on the Enterprise Value to EBITDA ratio, CMG is valued a bit more expensive than 75.56% of the companies in the same industry.
The rest of the industry has a similar Price/Free Cash Flow ratio as CMG.
Industry RankSector Rank
P/FCF 46.63
EV/EBITDA 29.44
CMG Per share dataCMG EPS, Sales, OCF, FCF, BookValue per sharePer Share Data Per Share 2 4 6 8

4.3 Compensation for Growth

The high PEG Ratio(NY), which compensates the Price/Earnings for growth, indicates CMG does not grow enough to justify the current Price/Earnings ratio.
CMG has an outstanding profitability rating, which may justify a higher PE ratio.
A more expensive valuation may be justified as CMG's earnings are expected to grow with 15.25% in the coming years.
PEG (NY)5.06
PEG (5Y)1.4
EPS Next 2Y13.5%
EPS Next 3Y15.25%

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0

5. Dividend

5.1 Amount

CMG does not give a dividend.
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A

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CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

NYSE:CMG (5/20/2025, 8:04:00 PM)

After market: 51.58 +0.11 (+0.21%)

51.47

-0.8 (-1.53%)

Chartmill FA Rating
GICS SectorConsumer Discretionary
GICS IndustryGroupConsumer Services
GICS IndustryHotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Earnings (Last)04-23 2025-04-23/amc
Earnings (Next)07-22 2025-07-22/amc
Inst Owners87.62%
Inst Owner Change1.49%
Ins Owners0.37%
Ins Owner Change1.57%
Market Cap69.35B
Analysts82.5
Price Target60.18 (16.92%)
Short Float %2.23%
Short Ratio2.04
Dividend
Industry RankSector Rank
Dividend Yield N/A
Yearly DividendN/A
Dividend Growth(5Y)N/A
DPN/A
Div Incr Years0
Div Non Decr Years0
Ex-DateN/A
Surprises & Revisions
EPS beat(2)2
Avg EPS beat(2)1.59%
Min EPS beat(2)1.04%
Max EPS beat(2)2.13%
EPS beat(4)4
Avg EPS beat(4)3.85%
Min EPS beat(4)1.04%
Max EPS beat(4)6.24%
EPS beat(8)8
Avg EPS beat(8)5.27%
EPS beat(12)11
Avg EPS beat(12)4.59%
EPS beat(16)15
Avg EPS beat(16)5.21%
Revenue beat(2)0
Avg Revenue beat(2)-2.27%
Min Revenue beat(2)-3.48%
Max Revenue beat(2)-1.07%
Revenue beat(4)1
Avg Revenue beat(4)-1.56%
Min Revenue beat(4)-3.48%
Max Revenue beat(4)0.1%
Revenue beat(8)3
Avg Revenue beat(8)-1.06%
Revenue beat(12)4
Avg Revenue beat(12)-1.28%
Revenue beat(16)4
Avg Revenue beat(16)-1.07%
PT rev (1m)-10.03%
PT rev (3m)-12.27%
EPS NQ rev (1m)-10.03%
EPS NQ rev (3m)-10.61%
EPS NY rev (1m)-4.83%
EPS NY rev (3m)-6.29%
Revenue NQ rev (1m)-4.97%
Revenue NQ rev (3m)-5.08%
Revenue NY rev (1m)-3.03%
Revenue NY rev (3m)-4.49%
Valuation
Industry RankSector Rank
PE 44.76
Fwd PE 35.44
P/S 6.04
P/FCF 46.63
P/OCF 33.13
P/B 19.87
P/tB 19.99
EV/EBITDA 29.44
EPS(TTM)1.15
EY2.23%
EPS(NY)1.45
Fwd EY2.82%
FCF(TTM)1.1
FCFY2.14%
OCF(TTM)1.55
OCFY3.02%
SpS8.53
BVpS2.59
TBVpS2.57
PEG (NY)5.06
PEG (5Y)1.4
Profitability
Industry RankSector Rank
ROA 17.26%
ROE 44.73%
ROCE 24.92%
ROIC 18.96%
ROICexc 23.06%
ROICexgc 23.14%
OM 17.25%
PM (TTM) 13.59%
GM 31.4%
FCFM 12.95%
ROA(3y)14.97%
ROA(5y)12.14%
ROE(3y)40.02%
ROE(5y)33.22%
ROIC(3y)16.89%
ROIC(5y)13.28%
ROICexc(3y)20.4%
ROICexc(5y)16.1%
ROICexgc(3y)20.47%
ROICexgc(5y)16.17%
ROCE(3y)22.21%
ROCE(5y)17.46%
ROICexcg growth 3Y18.49%
ROICexcg growth 5Y16.8%
ROICexc growth 3Y18.54%
ROICexc growth 5Y16.87%
OM growth 3Y16.04%
OM growth 5Y14.88%
PM growth 3Y16.16%
PM growth 5Y16.69%
GM growth 3Y3.22%
GM growth 5Y2.96%
F-Score7
Asset Turnover1.27
Health
Industry RankSector Rank
Debt/Equity 0
Debt/FCF 0
Debt/EBITDA 0
Cap/Depr 178.68%
Cap/Sales 5.27%
Interest Coverage 250
Cash Conversion 90.18%
Profit Quality 95.25%
Current Ratio 1.52
Quick Ratio 1.48
Altman-Z 9.89
F-Score7
WACC9.1%
ROIC/WACC2.08
Cap/Depr(3y)173.27%
Cap/Depr(5y)170.01%
Cap/Sales(3y)5.49%
Cap/Sales(5y)5.72%
Profit Quality(3y)97.3%
Profit Quality(5y)100.43%
High Growth Momentum
Growth
EPS 1Y (TTM)20.44%
EPS 3Y30.4%
EPS 5Y31.99%
EPS Q2Q%8.45%
EPS Next Y8.84%
EPS Next 2Y13.5%
EPS Next 3Y15.25%
EPS Next 5Y18.61%
Revenue 1Y (TTM)12.57%
Revenue growth 3Y14.45%
Revenue growth 5Y15.16%
Sales Q2Q%6.42%
Revenue Next Year8.17%
Revenue Next 2Y10.41%
Revenue Next 3Y11.07%
Revenue Next 5Y12.78%
EBIT growth 1Y18.89%
EBIT growth 3Y32.8%
EBIT growth 5Y32.3%
EBIT Next Year34.75%
EBIT Next 3Y23.35%
EBIT Next 5Y18.53%
FCF growth 1Y49.93%
FCF growth 3Y21.65%
FCF growth 5Y31.27%
OCF growth 1Y39.97%
OCF growth 3Y17.97%
OCF growth 5Y23.88%